What should realistic expectations be for Wisconsin basketball in 2020-2021?

Analyzing what the Badgers expectations are for next year

If you told me this past December that you thought the Wisconsin Badgers could go undefeated from February 9 until the end of the year I would have called you crazy. Nobody, absolutely nobody after watching the first three months of a topsy-turvy start to the 2019-20 season expected Wisconsin to be heading into their final regular season game at Indiana with a Big Ten title hanging in the balance. The 2019-20 team did not care about our expectations for them or any noise that could potentially sway their focus. Even when odds were stacked against them, they responded time and time again. The best news? Nearly the entire team is coming back to Madison to finish what they started.

So with D’Mitrik Trice, Nate Reuvers, Aleem Ford, Micah Potter, and Brad Davison all coming back to Madison for their senior season, what should realistic expectations be? The first answer is that Wisconsin should absolutely be considered the Big Ten favorite heading into the year, and that would even include if reigning Big Ten Player of the Year Luka Garza returns to Iowa instead of heading to the NBA. The preseason big three is clear, the order is less obvious: Iowa (assuming Garza returns), Wisconsin, and Michigan State.

At this point, the team with the least questions of the three is Wisconsin. Once Iowa answers the Garza question, I could see a case for them being Big Ten favorites, although the continuity of a Badgers core that has played together and already won a championship together should give them the edge. Even if Michigan State big man Xavier Tillman returns instead of staying in the NBA draft, which at this point does not look extremely likely, the Spartans still have an inexperienced backcourt following the departure of their leader Cassius Winston.

Realistic expectations should see the Badgers as a two or three seed when the dust settles in March. Back-to-back Big Ten crowns would be ideal, but as is the unfair life that is college basketball, you are truly judged based on a few weeks in March. Wisconsin has all the pieces to be a successful team in The Big Dance. Senior leadership, depth, rebounding, and a regular season schedule that will be more challenging than most given the nature of the Big Ten should set the Badgers up for postseason success in 2020-2021. Anything less than a second weekend appearance would feel like a disappointment in March. Should we expect a Final Four? Unfortunately, the nature of college basketball makes that a fools errand. You are always one bad shooting night away from going home before your fan base feels like you should.

A Big Ten championship and a second weekend appearance feels like a fair bar to set, although I understand if Badger fans are clamoring for more this season. This team has all the makings for a Final Four run, and although they are built entirely differently than the 2014-15 squad, it would be fair to say they have the highest expectations since that team made a run to the National Championship game. This team could be special.

Wisconsin basketball included in another preseason top 10

Wisconsin basketball has been feeling the love during this offseason. The hype surrounding the 2020-21 season has manifested itself in early rankings that see the Badgers as a top ten team. The latest ranking to show UW the respect that comes with returning five of your top six leading scorers was done by CBS Sports college basketball insider Jon Rothstein.

Rothstein also happens to be the originator of the “Greg Gard, silent assassin” t-shirts that Nate Reuvers and other Badgers wore towards the end of the season in postgame interviews. The CBS Sports insider ranks the Badgers as the ninth-best team in the country in his “Early Rothstein 45 for 2021.”

Contrary to other early expert rankings, instead of having UW as the top Big Ten team Rothstein sees the Badgers as the third best team in the Big Ten after Iowa and Michigan State respectively. In our BadgersWire way-too-early preseason rankings, we also saw Iowa, Michigan State, and the Badgers as the clear top three, albeit in a different order.

For Iowa, a large portion of their preseason hype comes with the assumption that reigning Big Ten Player of the Year Luka Garza will return to school instead of heading to the NBA draft. While we are still in the way-too-early phase of rankings, expect Wisconsin to be near the top of any preseason predictions both nationally and in the Big Ten conference.

A way-too-early projection for who finishes at the top of the 2020-2021 Big Ten basketball standings

Sure, it is only April 12th. But without live sports, we need to speculate on what will happen when we finally get them back. In these uncertain times, we were deprived of of a finish to the college basketball calendar, and that makes next year all the more exciting. It is never too early to check out how next year’s Big Ten basketball conference will shake out. Here is BadgersWire’s first look at projecting next year’s regular season top three in the best conference in college basketball.

No. 1: Wisconsin Badgers (Last year: 21-10 (14-6) Co-Big Ten regular season champions)

No, I swear there was no bias involved. This team should be the favorite in the Big Ten conference. The Badgers return 88% of their minutes from a squad that won the Big Ten regular season crown this past year. A plethora of Badgers played the best basketball of their season down the stretch. D’Mitrik Trice, Aleem Ford, Nate Reuvers, and Micah Potter each took their turns in the spotlight during Wisconsin’s eight-game winning streak in February and March. The best news? They are all coming back to Madison for one final ride. No team in the Big Ten has the kind of roster consistency that the Badgers do. While most Big Ten squads have new significant pieces that will decide their season or major questions surrounding the NBA draft, we know what we are getting in Madison. A trip to the 2021 Final Four in Indianapolis should be the goal for Greg Gard’s group.

No. 2: Iowa Hawkeyes (Last year: 20-11 (11-9) T-5th in the Big Ten)

This ranking hinges mightily on the decision that looms for reigning Big Ten Player of the Year Luka Garza. Anytime you have the prospect of losing a player that averaged 23.9 points per game and nearly ten boards this past year, that will have a major effect on your pre-season expectations. Garza has announced he will test the NBA Draft process while still keeping eligibility, via his Twitter account. Based on how the rising senior fairs in terms of the draft process and projected draft location, Garza will make a decision regarding whether or not he returns. The Kareem Abdul-Jabbar award winner is not the only significant Hawkeye with questions, however. Losing starting point guard Jordan Bohannon to season-ending hip surgery in December meant that the Hawkeye senior could apply for a medical redshirt, and will be back for a second senior year. If Bohannon and Garza are both healthy and still Hawkeyes come this November, watch out.

No. 3: Michigan State (Last Year: 22-9 (14-6) Co-Big Ten regular season champions)

You can never count Tom Izzo and Sparty out. Without 2018-19 Big Ten Player of the Year Cassius Winston holding the keys to the car, things will get trickier for the Spartans on their quest to retain Big Ten supremacy. The key question for MSU next season is a similar one to the question surrounding Iowa and Garza: Will Xavier Tillman stay in East Lansing or go to the NBA? In the same fashion as Garza, the MSU big man declared for the draft while maintaining eligibility. A key difference between Garza and Tillman is that the Michigan State product has been consistently ranked as a late first-round selection, while Garza has rarely found himself on mock draft boards at all. If Tillman, who averaged 13.7 points and 10.3 boards this past season, returns, the Spartans have a foundation of Rocket Watts, Aaron Henry, and Tillman that will contend for a Big Ten crown. The addition of former Marquette player Joey Hauser will certainly prove significant given his immediate eligibility. Without Tillman staying though, it would be tough to see Michigan State repeating.

Luka Garza’s NBA decision could be very significant for the Badgers

The best player in the Big Ten Conference has his NBA decision looming

The Big Ten Conference is gearing up for another year on top of the college basketball world, and the Badgers have plans to be on top of the conference in 2021. A common theme among the way-too-early projections for college basketball rankings see Iowa playing second fiddle to Wisconsin in top-25 lists among a variety of major networks. The Badgers and the Hawkeyes have consistently been projected to be top-10 teams next season. Although no coach or player wants to focus on what other teams and players are doing, Iowa basketball recently made news that could have a major effect on Big Ten supremacy.

The battle for the Big Ten runs through Iowa City and Madison in 2021, although the path could be come much clearer for the Badgers given the results of a pending decision. Iowa star Luka Garza recently made headlines with a decision on his future. The 2019-20 Big Ten Player of the Year has decided to enter the NBA Draft without losing his senior season eligibility, per his Twitter account. “If it ends up not being the right time to make the move to the NBA, I’m excited about the potential of what my senior season as a Hawkeye could have in store,” Garza said via Twitter.

Luka Garza to declare for NBA Draft while maintaining eligibility: https://t.co/GZKmD1W6cU | #Hawkeyes pic.twitter.com/Wu5vSi8W8M

— Iowa Basketball (@IowaHoops) April 10, 2020

The Iowa center had a career junior season in which he averaged 23.9 points per game and 9.8 rebounds in an award-filled campaign. Garza would not only be the popular pick to repeat as Big Ten Player of the Year, but also the clear favorite to take home the Wooden Award for best college basketball player in the nation, an honor that he narrowly missed out on this year when Dayton star Obi Toppin took home the hardware. As the biggest pre-season threat to the Badgers repeating as Big Ten Champions, the Hawkeyes would certainly look extremely different without their best player.

So how does this decision work for Garza? According to NCAA rules he is now able to keep his eligibility through the draft process, and participate in workouts, the NBA Draft Combine and other events with teams. His name can still be entered in the NBA Draft pool, and given where he feels like he would fall Garza can make a decision on his future after the pre-draft process plays out. Another interesting element in his decision could be an NBA Draft process that looks extremely different. If the NFL Draft is any indication, the draft process in a global pandemic will certainly change drastically. Badger fans should keep their eye on Garza throughout his process, as the big man’s decision could have a major say in who wins the conference next season.

March moments which helped Wisconsin: NW State-Iowa 2006

Steve Alford’s fall

The Iowa Hawkeyes reached the Final Four in 1980. They reached the Elite Eight in 1987. Doctor Tom Davis kept Iowa nationally relevant for more than a decade, and in the good doctor’s final season in Iowa City — in 1999 — Iowa was a No. 5 NCAA Tournament seed which reached the Sweet 16.

In the 21st century, Iowa has struggled to live up to the standards set by Davis and the man who cracked the Final Four code before him, Lute Olson. The Hawkeyes used to be a program which made the NCAAs more often than not.

Then came Steve Alford.

The man who led Southwest Missouri State to an unexpected Sweet 16 berth, and who learned basketball under Bobby Knight at Indiana, moved up the coaching ladder and returned to the conference where he won a national championship. Alford’s return to the Big Ten was an eagerly-anticipated development in the conference. It occurred precisely as Wisconsin’s Dick Bennett team was preparing for the 1999-2000 season when it made a Cinderella run to the Final Four and changed the Badgers’ sense of what they could achieve.

Alford fell on tough times early in his tenure at Iowa, missing the NCAA Tournament in four of his first five seasons on the job. He got back to the Big Dance in 2005, however, with a young team ready to make a climb. His 2006 team rocketed to a No. 3 seed, creating the genuine belief that maybe, just maybe, Iowa was on its way to prominence once again. The Hawkeyes’ patience with Alford was on the verge of paying off.

Then came the game in Detroit against Northwestern State, a 3-versus-14 game the Hawkeyes were not supposed to struggle in. We know now with the benefit of hindsight how poorly Alford-coached teams have handled the NCAA Tournament. Alford could never get New Mexico to the Sweet 16, and he could never get UCLA past it. In 2006, however, Alford was a mystery relative to March, in part because his track record simply wasn’t that extensive. He had the Sweet 16 run with Southwest Missouri State, but two quick exits at Iowa in 2001 and 2005. This was a proving-ground moment, but no one could have known at the time how damaging this game was going to be for Alford’s career… or Iowa’s trajectory in the 21st century.

After losing to Northwestern State, Alford never figured out the NCAA Tournament… and Iowa never stabilized. The Alford part of the story has already been told, given his failures at New Mexico and UCLA. Iowa has never been as high as a No. 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament since that loss, 14 years ago. The Hawkeyes missed the Big Dance in seven straight seasons following that loss. Fran McCaffery finally got the Hawks back to the Big Show in three straight seasons, but he has never made the Sweet 16. Overall, if you accept that Iowa was an NCAA Tournament team this year — regardless of whether the event was played — Iowa has reached just five NCAA Tournaments in the 14 seasons since the Northwestern State loss. The Hawkeyes have truly never recovered from that game in 2006.

Wisconsin happily accepts these circumstances.

2020 NCAA Tournament Sim: East Region, Round 2

2020 NCAA Tournament Sim: East Region, Round 2 A trip to the Sweet Sixteen is on the line in the round of 32. Contact/Follow @HardwoodTalk & @MWCwire Four Move On The first round is in the books of our NCAA Tournament simulation and though there …

[jwplayer 18QegcJn-sNi3MVSU]

2020 NCAA Tournament Sim: East Region, Round 2

A trip to the Sweet Sixteen is on the line in the round of 32.

Contact/Follow @HardwoodTalk & @MWCwire

Four Move On

The first round is in the books of our NCAA Tournament simulation and though there were a few upsets, the big names are still here and provide an eventful day of games in the round thirty-two for us to enjoy.

As a reminder, we are simulating these games over at What If Sports and are doing just like the NCAA Tournament, one loss and you’re out.

East Region

Final Score: No.1 Dayton 96, No. 8 Colorado 89

Cleveland, OH–The arena was full in Cleveland on Sunday afternoon as Dayton Flyers fans packed in tight. It took more than regulation in this one for the Flyers to advance on, it also took a double-double from star big man Obi Toppin with 26 points and 12 rounds.

Colorado attempted the upset but might have ultimately been doomed from beyond the arc, finishing just 6-23 on the night from deep. Mckinley Wright IV led his team for the second straight game with 21 points and 11 rebounds.

The No. 1 seed Flyers advance on with a tough test ahead in the Auburn Tigers and maybe one of their bigger obstacles of the season in a team with athleticism and size like nothing you can compare to in the Atlantic-10.

Final Score: No. 5 Auburn 85, No.4 Wisconsin 65

Sacramento, CA–The goal hasn’t changed for the Tigers and unfortunately for the Wisconsin Badgers they were just another roadblock for Auburn en route to the Sweet Sixteen.

Bruce Pearl’s squad looked focused and shut down the Badger’s second-half offensive efforts, outscoring Wisconsin 41-25 after half time. Kobe King was the only Badger to reach double-digit scoring, ending the night with just 13 points.

While the Tigers were led by freshman Isaac Okoro with 19 points, 5 rebounds and clutch performance from the field, going 8-11 on the night. They advance on to face the No. 1 seed in the region in Dayton and have to keep focus to continue on to the Elite Eight and beyond.

Final Score: No. 3 Duke 77, No. 6 Iowa 66

Greensboro, NC–It was a duel effort by Tre Jones and Cassius Stanley who led Duke with 14 points a piece. But they weren’t alone as three other Blue Devil’s finished the night with double-digits in their eleven point win over the Iowa Hawkeyes.

Iowa big man Luka Garza gave it his all as he led the way with 15 points and 13 rebounds. But it wasn’t enough as the Hawkeyes couldn’t hold off a late second half surge by the Blue Devils to seal the win and send Fran McCaffery’s group home early. They continue on to face this corner of the bracket’s Cinderella, a No. 10 seed who might not fit the mold but don’t let them fool you as they already have two upsets in the bag with room for much more.

Final Score: No. 10 Arizona State 88, No. 2 Villanova 86

Albany, NY–The Sun Devils are on a roll! As they pack their bags and head to New York City with a two-point victory over two-time tournament Champion Villanova and head coach Jay Wright.

Arizona State couldn’t miss as they went a combined 50.8% from the field and ended the night with six different Sun Devil’s in double figures. It was floor general Remy Martin who led the way with 17 points, 8 assists and three steals. Villanova did all they could and were led by Saddiq Bey with 24 points but this is the Sun Devil’s weekend as they aren’t leaving the east coast just yet.

How you should bet the Big Ten Tournament

The Big Ten Tournament bracket was finalized on Sunday, which means so were the lines in Vegas. Despite Wisconsin landing the one seed following a three-way tie for first place, the Badgers are nowhere near favorites to be the last team standing in Indy. Banker’s Life Fieldhouse will play host to the tournament that begins with a pair of games today. Let’s take a look at the full list of odds and find every gamblers favorite thing: value.

Here is the complete list of odds to win the Big Ten Tournament:

Michigan State+250
Maryland+500
Wisconsin+500
Illinois+800
Michigan+1100
Ohio State+1100
Iowa+1200
Penn State+1200
Rutgers+1800
Purdue+2500
Minnesota+3000
Indiana+3300
Nebraska+25000
Northwestern+40000

The Pick: Michigan State – The chalk is not always the play, but in the case of this tournament I think it has to be. Michigan State enters Indy on a role, and over their last five games they have looked like the team that was a preseason national championship favorite. March favors two things: electrifying guards and elite coaching. The Spartans check both boxes. Coming off of a 27-point outburst on his senior day, Cassius Winston will be a man on a mission this March. Sparty has a double-bye, which will be significant advantage for the top four seeds given how close many of these tournament games are sure to be. Throughout their five-game winning streak, Michigan State has won three of the five games on the road including wins at Penn State and a double-digit Maryland. Playing away from home effects the Spartans less than any other contender, as we have seen this year in conference play.

Sleeper: Iowa – The Hawkeyes provide the value at +1200, and anytime you have Big Ten Player of the Year Luka Garza you have a chance. Iowa fell short at Illinois on Sunday in an effort to claim a double-bye, but Garza showed us why he is the best big in the conference finishing with 28 points and eight boards. The Hawkeyes have an experienced leader in Fran McCaffery and the shooting to ignite a deep run in Indy.

Deep Sleeper: Indiana – No, the Hoosiers are not going to win the Big Ten Tournament, but winning multiple games seems like a real possibility. Indiana enters Indy with everything to play for, and a tournament site that is only about 50 minutes away from their home in Bloomington. You expect Archie Miller’s group to take care of Nebraska, a team that they swept in the regular season, and take of care of business in a must-win game. That would set up a matchup with Penn State, a squad that limps into Indy as losers of three straight including Saturday’s loss to a bottom feeder in Northwestern. The Hoosiers have their NCAA Tournament hopes on the line and a likely home crowd, so if you are really feeling lucky, dabble with +3300.

Homer Pick: The Badgers are the hottest team in all the land and the bracket works out nicely for them. Avoiding Michigan State until what would be the championship matchup feels like a major win given the way that the Spartans are playing. UW has a doable path to the final, and this team has refused to lose for over a month. The value is there if the Badgers make it to Sunday and you have the opportunity to hedge your bet.

Iowa becomes the focal point of 5-way Big Ten race for double byes

Iowa is a team to watch

Fran McCaffery is the coach fans of other Big Ten schools love to hate. He has the hot temper, the pugnacious attitude, the nasty streak. Yet, while the Iowa coach is a lightning rod and an object of gleeful derision when the Hawkeyes lose, it remains that Fran might help another Big Ten team (in addition to his own) secure a double bye at the upcoming Big Ten Tournament.

You don’t WANT to send a gift basket to Fran McCaffery, but if you get a double bye in the Big Ten Tournament courtesy of an Iowa win, you might have to… and this is the position Wisconsin inhabits heading into the final two weeks of the 2020 Big Ten regular season.

When you look at the remaining schedules for the five Big Ten teams which are tied at 10-6 in the conference standings, two details stand out: One is that Northwestern plays three of the five teams — Wisconsin, Illinois, and Penn State — while Michigan State and Iowa don’t get another shot at the Wildcats.

The other detail is that Iowa is the only team of the five which plays three of the other four Big Ten teams in this five-way logjam.

Wisconsin plays none of the other four teams, which is why the Badgers have such a good shot at a double bye (though by no means a guarantee).

Illinois plays only one of the other four teams in the five-way tie.

Penn State plays two.

Michigan State plays two.

Iowa plays three: Michigan State, Penn State, and Illinois, missing only Wisconsin.

Penn State and Michigan State play each other in the coming weeks. Since Iowa plays PSU and MSU, what we have, essentially, is a three-team round-robin involving Iowa, Penn State, and Michigan State. Wisconsin (like Illinois) is hoping that Iowa goes 1-1 in its two games against Penn State and Michigan State, and that all three teams — UI, PSU, and MSU — split their games in that three-team group.

Iowa, though, is the true epicenter of the Big Ten’s race for double byes at the conference tournament. No one wants Fran McCaffery to do TOO well, but no one in the upper tier of the Big Ten wants him to be a complete failure down the stretch, either.

Michigan State vs. Iowa basketball statistical preview

Let’s take a look at how Michigan State and Iowa match up from a numbers perspective.

[jwplayer EBPdXA3C-PROpJzTY]

No. 24 Michigan State hosts the No. 18 Iowa Hawkeyes Tuesday night (7:00 ESPN 2) in a matchup that will eliminate the loser from Big Ten contention. The Hawkeyes will roll into East Lansing on the back of Big Ten Player of the Year favorite Luka Garza. The junior big man is averaging a robust 23.7 points and 9.6 rebounds per game. Iowa has one of the best offenses in college basketball and Michigan State is going to have their work cut out for them if they want to get a victory tonight.

Let’s take a look at how these two teams match up from a statistical standpoint and where edges can perhaps be gleaned.

Advanced stats and ranks courtesy kenpom.com.

Overview

Michigan State: 18-9 overall, 10-6 Big Ten

-No. 7 in adjusted efficiency

-No. 18 in adjusted offense

-No. 14 in adjusted defense

-No. 98 in adjusted tempo

Iowa: 19-8 overall, 10-6 Big Ten

-No. 22 in adjusted efficiency

-No. 5 in adjusted offense

-No. 92 in adjusted defense

-No. 69 in adjusted tempo

As you can see, Iowa likes scoring points. Really, every college basketball likes scoring points, but Iowa *really* likes scoring points. They play at a fast pace on offense and they get a ton of shots up. You’ll soon see that they don’t really do any one thing as a team at an elite level, bu they are incredibly balanced on offense. They need to be, because woof, it is not pretty on defense for the Hawkeyes. Fran McCaffery’s squad comes into this game having won two straight and part of the logjam tie for second place in the Big Ten. The road has now been kind to Iowa in conference play; they’re 2-6 on the road and that includes a loss at Nebraska. As mentioned, Luka Garza is going to win Big Ten Player of the Year and it’ll be deserved. He’s been an efficient and productive machine this year and one of the best players in the country. Behind him Joe Wieskamp is an excellent wing player and then things thin out for the Hawkeyes. Freshman shooting guard CJ Fredrick is shooting 47% from three this year, but has been out with an injury the last few games. His status for this one is certainly up in the air. The Hawkeyes are a very good team, but have certainly had their struggles against MSU in the past.

Let’s dive into some specifics.

A note: Four factors is something you will see in these posts a lot. They are four statistical categories that heavily dictate good basketball vs. bad basketball. They are: effective field goal %, turnover %, offensive rebounding %, free throw rate (FTA/FGA). If a team is good at these four things, they are good at basketball.

When Michigan State has the ball

Michigan State Offense four factors: No. 69 in eFG% (effective field goal), No. 132 in turnover %, No. 38 in Oreb%, No. 211 in free throw rate

Iowa defense four factors: No. 172 eFG% against, No. 236 in turnover %, No. 215 in Oreb%, No. 42 in FTR

Michigan State’s turnover numbers have been all over the place this season. Believe it or not, there was a good chunk of time earlier this year when they were a pretty good team at protecting the ball. That has certainly gone to hell and it seems like it doesn’t matter who the opponent is. Nebraska was not a team that forced turnovers, yet MSU turned it over 20+ times against them. Iowa is the same way. Can MSU protect the ball better? The Spartans should have a great advantage on the glass as they generally do. MSU’s shooting numbers are coming around lately, which is encouraging given the whole turnovers thing. If they’re gonna waste a bunch of possessions on turnovers, they better make up for it with shot making. Free throws remain an issue as nobody is getting to the line consistently for MSU. Iowa doesn’t foul much so I’d be surprised if MSU got to the line a bunch in this one.

When Iowa has the ball

Iowa offensive four factors: No. 68 in eFG%, No. 58 in turnover %, No. 58 in Oreb%, No. 116 in FTR

Michigan State defensive four factors: No. 2 in eFG% against, No. 323 in turnover %, No. 63 in Oreb% against, No. 92 in FTR

This is going to be a very interesting matchup. Michigan State is forcing missed shots better than anybody in the country over the last month and they’ve jumped all the way to No. 2 in eFG% against. Luka Garza is going to get a bunch of points and a bunch of rebounds. The key is can MSU make him inefficient on his way to his totals. Something like 20 points on 21 shots is right in line with what it takes to beat Iowa. Rebounding on this end of the floor is going to be huge. If Iowa is struggling to make shots, they’re going to need to win on the glass and while MSU has generally been a pretty good defensive rebounding team, they’ve been prone to games where they just don’t show up on the glass. They can’t afford one of those against Iowa. The path for MSU is the same as it always is; force tough, contested shots and grab the rebound. It’s as simple as that.

Other key numbers

Michigan State ranks No. 7 in both 2P% and 3P% against. They’re technically 2nd in eFG% against, but there really might not be a team in college basketball that is harder to make shots on right now than MSU.

Iowa has two good shooters from three in the absence of Fredrick. Garza shoots 38% on decent volume and Wieskamp shoots 37% on solid volume. Outside of those two, Iowa really struggles to shoot from deep. The thing is, those two take most of the shots.

As a team the Hawkeyes rank 81st in three-point percentage and are middle of the pack in terms of three point volume.

While he is tremendous at nearly everything and is nationally ranked in a ton of categories, Luka Garza struggles from the free throw line. After shooting 80% from the stripe last year, Garza has regressed back down to a career-low 65%. We know he can shoot the ball well from pretty much anywhere, so I’m guessing it’s a bit of a confidence/mental thing with him at the free throw line.

Conclusion

Iowa is a really good team with an elite offense. They are locked into the NCAA tournament and still have an outside shot at the Big Ten regular season title. The CJ Fredrick injury looms large here as the dynamic of the Iowa offense totally changes without his elite shooting. Luka Garza is going to get his, but MSU is going to have to do a great job on secondary scorers, most importantly Joe Wieskamp. If MSU continues to force tough shots and does a good job on the defensive glass, they should be fine. Iowa isn’t really built to win a slugfest and MSU is a much more balanced team and can play a multitude of styles. Iowa is going to have to take a few extra threes in this one and shoot it well from deep. On defense they’ll need to try and make sure MSU’s turnover struggles continue. KenPom projects this game as a 79-73 win for MSU, a 69% chance of victory.

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1363]

Locked On Spartans Podcast: Michigan State vs. Iowa basketball preview

Michigan State hosts Iowa at the Breslin Center Tuesday night.

Wil and Matt preview Michigan State taking on Iowa and talk about Mel Tucker’s first regular press conference.

You can find the episode on iTunes, Spotify, and Google Podcasts.

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=516986277]