Tag: Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners odds predictions pick betting line spread

Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Houston Astros (16-15) and Seattle Mariners (15-16) open a 3-game series at T-Mobile Park on Friday with 1st pitch set for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Houston won 12-7 last year and has won 4 straight season series from Seattle

Houston has endured some offensive woes of late and is just 2-4 in its last 6 games. Over that stretch, the Astros have scored just 15 runs on a .528 OPS.

The Mariners, meanwhile, have scored 6 runs per game in winning each of their last 4. Seattle is back home after a 9-game road trip, but the club has struggled offensively in its home yard (.656 OPS).

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Astros at Mariners projected starters

RHP Cristian Javier vs. RHP Luis Castillo

Javier (2-1, 3.48 ERA) is making his 7th start. He’s logged a 1.13 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 33 2/3 IP.

  • Owns a 2.70 ERA, 1.08 WHIP over his last 3 starts
  • Has held current Seattle batters to an aggregate .649 OPS

Castillo (2-0, 1.82 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 0.92 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 34 2/3 IP.

  • Owns a 1.30 ERA across 9 career starts at T-Mobile Park
  • Has held current Houston batters to an aggregate .677 OPS

Astros at Mariners odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:18 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Astros +124 (bet $100 to win $124) | Mariners -146 (bet $146 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-176) | Mariners -1.5 (+146)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -102 | U: -120)

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Astros at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 3, Astros 2

Moneyline

With runs vs. records, both clubs are a little undercooked right now. Both may be decent plays in the near future, but this series likely won’t offer up attractive value sides. Both, however, profile, as getting lesser-than-expected pitching results and slightly better batting results so far. So, the Under figures to be a baseline setting for these 3 games.

STEER CLEAR.

Run line/Against the spread

No interest, focus on the Over/Under for the best value in this one. PASS.

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Over/Under

The Under is 6-1 in the last 7 series meetings in Seattle. And 6 straight Castillo outings in series openers have hit the Under.

Both bullpens may be a tad overrated by current surface numbers (both have top-5 ERAs), but both are likely 1st-division units at worst. The stronger of the 2 offenses — Houston — has struggled its way to a .659 OPS against right-handed pitching and is struggling in general over recent games.

With the quality of pitching, the game in a pitchers’ park, and Seattle struggling offensively at home, BACK THE UNDER 7 (-120).

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ALDS Game 3: Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners Game 3 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros took the first 2 games of their AL Division Series against the Seattle Mariners and will look for the sweep Saturday. First pitch is set for 4:07 p.m. ET (TBS) at T-Mobile Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Best-of-5 series: Astros lead 2-0
Regular-season series: Astros won 12-7

Houston was 51-30 on the road this year, which ranked second best in the league. They took the first 2 of this series 8-7 and 4-2.

Seattle had a real chance to steal this series as the M’s were up 7-3 in the 8th inning in Game 1, but Houston roared back for 5 runs to win. Seattle was 46-35 at home this season, and after losing the first 2 games of the series have lost 6 of their last 7 against Houston.

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Astros at Mariners projected starters

RHP Lance McCullers Jr. vs. RHP George Kirby

McCullers (4-2, 2.27 ERA) had a 1.24 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9, and 9.4 K/9 through 47 2/3 IP during the regular season.

  • He made just 3 road starts this season, where he allowed 7 ER in 17 2/3 IP (3.57 ERA) with a 21/9 K/9.
  • He has made 9 career starts at this park and in those outings has registered a 2.66 ERA and 11.0 K/9 in 50 2/3 IP.
  • He’s 2-2 with a 2.83 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP and 9.7 K/9 over 57 1/3 career playoff IP.

Kirby (8-5, 3.39 ERA) had a 1.21 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 through 130 IP spanning 26 starts.

  • In 13 home starts this season, he recorded a 3.28 ERA and 9.7 K/9 in 71 1/3 IP.
  • He struggled a bit down the stretch, allowing 10 ER in 12 1/3 IP over his last 3 starts with a weak 10/7 K/BB.
  • He faced Houston once this year and allowed 2 ER in 4 IP while whiffing 7 batters.

Astros at Mariners odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 8 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Astros -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Mariners -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+150) | Mariners +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Astros at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 5, Mariners 3

Moneyline

This is a pretty even matchup between 2 very good pitchers. But it’s worth noting that McCullers excelled down the stretch with 5 ER allowed and a 24/7 K/BB in 19 IP while Kirby struggled over his final few starts. Look for the ASTROS -115 to complete the sweep.

Run line/Against the spread

Of Houston’s last 12 road wins, 10 of them have been by more than a single run. Though Kirby has been strong throughout most of the year, he hasn’t pitched well his last few times out and will be put to the test against one of the league’s top offenses. We’ll side with the ASTROS -1.5 (+150).

Over/Under

We have discussed the recent issues for Kirby, and McCullers hasn’t been quite as good as his ERA would suggest. Both his FIP and xFIP are more than a run higher than his 2.27 ERA.

Both of these offenses are top 10 in wRC+ vs RHP, and while neither is a good bet to explode for a huge day, neither is likely to be completely shut down, either. Back the OVER 6.5 (-125).

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Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (51-44) host the Houston Astros (63-32) at T-Mobile Park Sunday in the finale of a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Astros lead 8-6.

The Astros have won the first 2 games of the series, each by more than 1 run. However, in their 4 prior series against the Mariners this season, they’ve only swept Seattle once. Houston has won 4 straight games.

The Mariners sit 2nd in the AL West, which was helped by their 14-game win streak prior to this series.

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Astros at Mariners projected starters

LHP Framber Valdez vs. LHP Robbie Ray

Valdez (8-4, 2.66 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 115 IP.

  • First start vs. the Mariners this season. The Astros are 11-7 in games he’s started.
  • Has given up just 6 ER in his last 3 starts covering 20 IP. His 2 complete games leads the majors.

Ray (8-6, 3.54 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 117 IP.

  • He led MLB in games started (pitchers), IP, and ERA last season. He has a career 29.1% strikeout rate.
  • In his lone start against Houston this season, the Mariners won  7-4, but Ray did allow 4 ER on 8 hits. Seattle is 12-7 in his starts.

Astros at Mariners odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 12:28 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Astros -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Mariners +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+140) | Mariners +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -145 | U: +115)

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Astros at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 5, Mariners 3

Money line

PASS.

Houston has won both the last 2 games by more than 1 run, so I’ll slide with the juicier payout on the run line.

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Run line/Against the spread

BET ASTROS -1.5 (+140).

The Astros have quenched the Mariners’ offense this series, allowing just 3 runs. When Valdez is on the mound, he’s been able to continue that trend. Houston has won 8 of his last 12 starts by more than a run.

Also, the Astros have the 3rd-fewest strikeouts and 3rd-most home runs, both of which won’t bode well for Ray, who has already struggled against Houston this season.

Houston is 33-18 SU on the road and Seattle is 20-23 on the run line following a loss. Combine it all, and I’ll take the Astros to win by 2 or more.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 6.5 (-145).

The odds aren’t necessarily there, but this total is too low to pass on. Ray gave up 4 ER the last time he pitched against Houston.

Also, the Mariners rank 17th in slugging percentage and 10th in on-base percentage. They should be able to figure out how to put up more than one run against Valdez, who has given up at least 2 ER in 3 straight starts.

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Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (51-42) host the Houston Astros (61-32) Friday at T-Mobile Park for the start of their 3-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tied 6-6, but Seattle has a plus-12 run differential in those meetings.

Houston won both games in a home doubleheader vs. the New York Yankees Thursday by a combined score of 10-7 and the Astros are 10 games ahead of the Mariners atop the AL West.

Seattle rode a 14-game winning streak into the All-Star break and has played its way up to the 2nd AL wild-card seed.

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Astros at Mariners projected starters

RHP Jose Urquidy vs. LHP Marco Gonzales   

Urquidy is 8-4 with a 4.09 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 94 2/3 IP across 17 starts.

  • Last start: Lost 5-1 at home July 15 vs. the Oakland Athletics with 6 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 9 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Mariners: 0-3 with a 10.38 ERA (13 IP, 15 ER), 27 H, 4 HR, 7 BB and 9 K in 3 starts.

Gonzales is 5-9 with a 3.50 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 4.8 K/9 in 100 1/3 IP over 18 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in Seattle’s 6-5 win at the Texas Rangers July 14 with 6 IP, 5 ER, 11 H, 2 BB and 4 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Astros: 1-2 with a 2.66 ERA (20 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 0.98 WHIP, 3 HR and 4.4 K/9 in 3 starts.

Astros at Mariners odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:36 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Astros -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Mariners +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+135) | Mariners +1.5 (-170)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Astros at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 4, Astros 3

Money line

BET the MARINERS (+100) because they’ve owned Urquidy and Seattle is 7-1 overall after a rest day and 3-1 when playing with a rest advantage. Urquidy has a 7.77 ERA in his last 5 starts vs. the Mariners dating back to last season whereas Gonzales has a 2.10 ERA in his last 5 starts vs. Houston.

Also, the Astros (-120) could be a tad fatigued after playing a doubleheader a day earlier vs. the Yankees and then having to travel halfway across the country for a division matchup against a red-hot Mariners team.

BET MARINERS (+100).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Mariners +1.5 (-170) are a little out of my price range considering Seattle is 20-24 RL at home and the Astros -1.5 (+135) are 26-23 RL on the road.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-112) since T-Mobile Park is historically pitcher-friendly, Astros-Mariners are 1-5 O/U in their last 6 meetings in Seattle, Houston is 11-26 O/U as road favorites and Seattle 5-11-1 O/U as home underdogs.

It’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 8.5 (-112) because Seattle’s ML is my favorite look in this game.

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Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (19-27) host the American League West co-tenant Houston Astros (27-19) Saturday for the middle game of their 3-game series at T-Mobile Park. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Houston leads 4-3, but Seattle has a plus-4 run differential.

The Mariners won Friday’s opener 6-1. They jumped out to a quick 4-0 lead thanks to a pair of 1st-inning, 2-run homers from CF Julio Rodriguez and DH Kyle Lewis – both against Astros SP Justin Verlander.

Astros at Mariners projected starters

RHP Jose Urquidy vs. RHP Logan Gilbert 

Urquidy is 4-1 with a 4.24 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 in 40 1/3 IP over 8 starts.

  • Last start: 5-2 home win vs. the Texas Rangers Sunday with 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 10 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Mariners: One start, a 7-2 loss at Seattle April 17 with 4 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 2 K.

Gilbert is 4-2 with a 2.60 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 52 IP over 9 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in Seattle’s 8-4 loss at the Boston Red Sox Sunday with 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 4 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Astros: 0-1 with a 7.07 ERA (14 IP, 11 ER), 18 H, 3 HR, 2 BB and 14 K across 3 starts.

Astros at Mariners odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:45 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Astros -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Mariners +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+133) | Mariners +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Astros at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 4, Astros 2

Money line

BET MARINERS (+105).

There’s reverse-line movement heading toward Seattle in the betting market and Urquidy’s pitching peripherals are ugly and his effectiveness declines significantly on the road.

Urquidy’s expected-batting average, wOBA and slugging percentage rates are in the 6th percentile or worse, per Statcast. Urquidy has a 6.55 road ERA (1.47 ERA at home) and 1.64 road WHIP (1.15 WHIP at home). The Astros are 1-3 in Urquidy’s 4 career starts vs. the Mariners.

Also, roughly 90% of the money is on the Astros, per Pregame.com, but Houston’s ML climbed from the -125 opener. This is suspicious because common sense tells us that the oddsmakers would move the lines according to the market movement.

BET 1 unit on the MARINERS (+105).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Seattle +1.5 (-165) is a little too pricey. However, I wouldn’t hate parlaying Seattle’s RL with another similarly priced line for a better payout. The Mariners are 5-2 RL as home underdogs and the Astros are 8-11 RL as road favorites.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-108).

T-Mobile Park is a traditionally pitcher-friendly venue and the Under is 5-2 in the last 7 head-to-head meetings in Seattle. Also, Houston is 9-28 O/U as a favorite.

It’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (-108) because both lineups rank in the top 10 of several advanced-hitting metrics vs. right-handed pitching and the Astros are 4-0 O/U in Urquidy’s last 4 road starts.

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Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros (78-54) and Seattle Mariners (71-62) meet Wednesday at 4:10 p.m. ET to put a bow on a three-game AL West series at T-Mobile Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Jake Odorizzi is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros. The veteran hurler is 6-6 with a 4.46 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, and 3.1 BB/9 over 84 2/3 IP in 18 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Current Mariners own an aggregate .777 OPS and .268 isolated power against Odorizzi.
  • The right-hander owns a 7.77 ERA over his last five road turns and a 5.13 road mark for the season.

RHP Logan Gilbert is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners. He is 5-5 with a 5.44 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, and 2.1 BB/9 over 86 IP across 18 starts.

  • Has been rocked for 19 ER in 12 2/3 IP over his last three starts, two of which were at home. The middle of those three games was a  disaster in Houston where he allowed 9 ER on 8 H through 4 2/3 IP.
  • Has been sunk by a 62.9% left-on-base rate.
  • Posted a 3.51 ERA in the first half of the season.

Astros at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:21 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Astros -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Mariners +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+122) | Mariners +1.5 (-150)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Prediction

Astros 4, Mariners 3

Money line (ML)

Houston and Seattle have split the first two games of the series. For the year the Astros are 9-6 (plus-24 run differential) against the Mariners.

The Mariners are 39-29 at home but with a -10 run differential in those games. Overall, the Mariners are playing .628 ball in 1-run games and are under-.500 the rest of the time. Those are indicators of a club too far over its skis.

However, the starting pitcher matchup makes for a change-up here. Gilbert has a 20.9% K-BB percentage, and his stuff and expected-ERA figures belie his surface ERA and his recent slump. Also, the Mariners have hit Odorizzi well.

PASS. Signals are still crossed, but there is some value to be had on the run line.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Seattle’s bullpen is in slightly better shape for this third game of the series. Houston is 1-4 over its last five road get-away games.

TAKE THE MARINERS +1.5  (-150).

Over/Under (O/U)

Looking at runs scored figures and support analytics call into question the validity of both offenses. Add in some contrarian-to-surface-numbers lean on Gilbert, and BACK THE UNDER 8.5 (-105).

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Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros (78-53) and Seattle Mariners (70-62) meet Tuesday at 10:10 p.m. ET for the second game of a three-game AL West series at T-Mobile Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Lance McCullers, Jr., is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros. He is 10-4 with a 3.32 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 10.7 K/9, and 4.2 BB/9 through 127 1/3 IP over 22 starts.

  • Was effective in a start against Seattle two turns back allowing 2 ER on 5 H and 1 BB with 8 K across 6 2/3 IP; has held current Mariner batters to an aggregate .668 OPS.
  • Owns a 2.96 ERA while holding Seattle to a .604 OPS across eight career starts at T-Mobile Park.
  • Has a 2.75 ERA across 10 starts on the road this season.

LHP Yusei Kikuchi is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners. He is 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, and 3.3 BB/9 over 137 1/3 IP through 24 starts.

  • Has experienced control problems (5.1 BB/9) while posting a 5.87 ERA over his last five starts. That stretch includes a clunker against these Astros in which he gave up 7 ER in 2 2/3 IP.
  • Current Houston bats have a .919 OPS and .280 isolated power against him.
  • Has not benefited from his pitcher-friendly home park where he owns a 5.29 ERA at T-Mobile since 2019.

Astros at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:24 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Astros -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Mariners +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+100) | Mariners +1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Astros 5, Mariners 3

Money line (ML)

Houston took Monday’s series opener and is 5-1 over its last six games. The Astros are 8-3 with an .821 OPS over their last 11 games – a stretch that includes taking three of four games from the Mariners.

Seattle’s Monday loss marked its fourth in its last five games. The Mariners are 38-29 at home but with a -14 run differential in those games. Overall, the Mariners are playing .628 ball in 1-run games and .483 ball in every other type of contest.

The Astros are 9-5, with a plus-28 run differential, against the Mariners on the season and their .782 OPS on the road is the best in the league.

BACK THE ASTROS (-175).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Seattle’s bullpen has registered an unsupportable 3.24 ERA in August. A .275 batting average on balls in play has tamped down what could easily be an ERA more than a run higher. Meanwhile, Houston’s ‘pen has shown some genuine improvement over the last month or so. The relief corps is a difference-maker in this matchup.

TAKE THE ASTROS -1.5  (+100) and consider pairing this play with the above in a half-and-half hybrid backing of the visiting nine.

Over/Under (O/U)

Looking at runs-scored figures and support analytics call into question the validity of both offenses. Other parts of the equation are filled with signals that swing both ways. PASS.

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Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros (77-53) and Seattle Mariners (70-61) meet Monday at 10:10 p.m. ET to open a three-game AL West series at T-Mobile Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Luis Garcia is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros. He is 10-6 with a 3.21 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, and 2.7 BB/9 over 123 1/3 IP through 22 starts and two relief appearances.

  • Threw 6 2/3 scoreless innings in his last start and owns a 1.99 ERA over his last four starts.
  • Has struggled on the road with a 4.97 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.

RHP Chris Flexen is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners. He is 11-5 with a 3.54 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, and 1.8 BB/9 over 140 IP across 24 starts.

  • Current Houston batters own an aggregate .936 OPS against Flexen. The Astros scored 7 runs in 4 IP against Flexen July 27.
  • Has benefited from a 9.0% home run/fly ball rate and has recently been allowing hard contact more frequently.

Astros at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:44 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Astros -170 (bet $170 to win $100) | Mariners +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+102) | Mariners +1.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Prediction

Astros 6, Mariners 3

Money line (ML)

Houston is 4-1 over its last five games and is 7-3 with an .834 OPS over its last 10 games. That stretch includes taking two of three games from the Mariners Aug. 20-22. The Houston victories against Seattle were by scores of 12-3 and 15-1. The Astros are 8-5, with a plus-27 run differential, against the Mariners on the season.

Seattle is coming off losing three of four games to the Kansas City Royals over the weekend. However, the Mariners had been 10-3 over their previous 13 games before that series.

The Mariners are 38-28 at home but with a -13 run differential in those games. The reason for that is the root of why Seattle continues to be a solid fade candidate: the Mariners are playing .643 ball in 1-run games and .483 ball in every other type of contest.

In a game with some Over lean, PASS on the money line and shoot for a plus-money payoff on the run line.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Houston is 11-2 across its last 13 series openers on the road; that includes wins against the likes of the Chicago White Sox, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants.

Seattle’s bullpen has registered an unsupportable 3.16 ERA in August. A .275 batting average on balls in play has tamped down what could easily be an ERA more than a run higher. Mix in some Flexen fade and the fact that Houston has hit him well in the past and you can peg the ASTROS -1.5  (+102) as a play with some value.

Over/Under (O/U)

There are plenty of cross signals in parsing this wager, so consider a partial unit as your outlay.

A sliver of a lean combined with an attractive price makes for VALUE ON THE OVER 8.5 (-105).

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Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros (62-40) and Seattle Mariners (55-47) play the finale of a three-game set Wednesday at T-Mobile Park. First pitch is scheduled for 3:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Jake Odorizzi is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros. He is 3-5 with a 4.23 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 over 55 1/3 innings across 12 starts and 1 relief appearance.

Odorizzi has had a rough July, going 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA, including 7 earned runs, 10 hits and 6 walks in just 8 innings across his past two outings.

LHP Yusei Kikuchi is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners. He is 6-5 with a 3.95 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 over 109 1/3 IP spanning 18 starts.

Kikuchi allowed 3 earned runs on 6 hits and a walk with a season-high 12 strikeouts across 6 innings in a no-decision against the Oakland Athletics Friday. He has really struggled in July, posting a 6.26 ERA across four outings.

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BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Astros at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:15 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Astros -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Mariners +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+125) | Mariners +1.5 (-155)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Astros 7, Mariners 4

Money line (ML)

The ASTROS (-125) are worth backing in Wednesday’s series finale as it’s tough to trust Kikuchi right now. He has had mixed results against Houston this season, dominating in a 1-0 win at Minute Maid Park April 29, but allowing 5 runs and 6 hits in a no-decision at T-Mobile Park April 16.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

HOUSTON -1.5 (+125) is worth a roll of the dice on the road against Seattle. The Astros hung on for an 8-6 win Tuesday, bouncing back from Monday’s 11-8 setback.

Over/Under (O/U)

The OVER 8.5 (-115) is the play. There has been a total of 33 runs in the first two games in this series with Houston outscoring Seattle 17-16.

Scoring won’t be that prolific Wednesday, especially with the quick turnaround, but the starting pitchers are more than giving and we’ll see another Over result.

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Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and prediction

Matchup analysis and picks for Tuesday’s Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners meeting at T-Mobile Park.

The Houston Astros (61-40) and Seattle Mariners (55-46) play Tuesday at 10:10 p.m. ET to continue a three-game series at T-Mobile Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Lance McCullers, Jr., is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros. Across 16 starts this season, he is 7-2 with a 3.04 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 through 91 2/3 IP.

McCullers gets a ton of ground balls (54.4%) which helps him keep the ball in the yard. He enters this start — at home-run-suppressant T-Mobile — on a string of five straight turns without yielding a round-tripper.

RHP Chris Flexen is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners. He is 9-4 with a 3.35 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 5.7 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 through 104 2/3 IP spanning 18 starts.

Flexen was an underwhelming swingman in three seasons with the New York Mets (2017-19) before coming over to Seattle. The 27-year-old has been ultra-consistent in notching a 1.94 ERA over his last 8 starts, as he held opponents to 3 or fewer earned runs in each outing over that stretch.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Astros at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:35 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Astros -155 (bet $155 to win $100) |  Mariners +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+110) | Mariners +1.5 (-135)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Astros 6, Mariners 4

Money line (ML)

Seattle won Monday’s opener 11-8 despite the pitching staff serving up 3 Astros home runs and the offense combining for 14 strikeouts. The win marked the Mariners’ fourth in a row; all have come at home where Seattle is now 7-2 over its last nine contests.

For Houston, Monday’s loss snapped a three-game winning streak. The Astros are 6-4 since the All-Star break despite clocking a below-average .700 OPS over that stretch. On the year, the Astros and Mariners have split eight head-to-head meetings.

In terms of Pythagorean record (theoretical wins and losses based on runs scored vs. runs against), no team is further from its actual mark than the Mariners. Seattle has scored 4.18 runs per game while allowing 4.66, yet is 9 games over .500. That puts Seattle on a fade footing almost regardless of who is starting on the mound.

Throw in McCullers and his 2.66 ERA away from home as well as some past success against this group (.612 OPS vs. current Seattle batters), and Houston becomes the lean.

Peg the run line as a better value and PASS on the money line.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BACK HOUSTON -1.5 (+110).

Over/Under (O/U)

Both bullpens are on a roll of late with July ERAs of 3.51 or better, but neither of those figures is supportable. Throw in some fade of both starters, and we get to some value on the OVER 8 (-115).

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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