Tag: Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox odds predictions pick betting line spread

Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Houston Astros (75-58) play the 2nd game of a 3-game series against the Boston Red Sox (69-63) on Tuesday at Fenway Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Astros lead 3-2

The Astros defeated the Red Sox 13-5 Monday in the series opener as 2B Jose Altuve and OF Yordan Alvarez both produced 4-hit outings. Houston has won 3 straight games and is now only 1 game behind the Seattle Mariners for the division lead in the AL West and is in possession of an AL Wild Card playoff berth.

The Red Sox were blown out by 8 runs on Monday despite OF Masataka Yoshida tallying 3 hits and OF Adam Duvall hitting a 2-run homer. Boston has lost 3 of its last 4 games and is 5 1/2 games behind the Astros for the final Wild Card spot in the AL.

Astros at Red Sox projected starters

RHP J.P. France vs. RHP Brayan Bello

France (9-5, 3.51 ERA) makes his 19th start and 20th appearance. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 through 110 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 2 1/3 IP, 10 ER, 11 H, 2 BB, 3 K in a 17-1 home loss in his first career start vs. Red Sox Thursday
  • 2023 road stats: 5-2, 1.92 ERA (51 2/3 IP, 11 ER) in 8 starts and 1 relief appearance

Bello (10-7, 3.56 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 126 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 H, 3 BB, 4 K in a 17-1 road victory opposite France Thursday
  • Home stats: 4-5, 3.41 ERA (66 IP, 25 ER) in 12 starts
  • Career vs. Astros: 1-0, 1.17 ERA (7 2/3 IP, 1 ER) in 1 start and 1 relief appearance

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Astros at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:12 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Astros +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Red Sox -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-185) | Red Sox -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Astros at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 6, Astros 5

Moneyline

I’ll take the RED SOX (-125) Tuesday in this rematch of last Thursday’s affair between France and Bello. While it’s improbable to predict a 17-1 lopsided win for the Red Sox again, Bello should lead Boston to another win at home.

Run line/Against the spread

Even though the Astros should keep this game within 2 runs, I’ll PASS on the run line in this contest. Wagering on Houston’s spread isn’t worth the risk at nearly -190 odds.

Over/Under

OVER 10 (-115) is the play in this game as plenty of runs have been scored when the Astros and Red Sox have squared off this season. There have been 18 runs scored in back-to-back games between these clubs and the Over is 5-0 in their first 5 meetings this season.

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Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Houston Astros (74-58) and Boston Red Sox (69-62) start a 3-game series at Fenway Park Monday. First pitch is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 2-2

The Astros started their 6-game road trip with a series win in Detroit, outscoring the Tigers 27-10 over their 3 games. Houston heads to Boston after splitting a 4-game series with the Red Sox less than a week ago at Minute Maid Park. They are 39-27 on the road this season.

The Red Sox started their 6-game homestand with a series loss to the Dodgers. Boston scores the 4th-most runs per game at home in the MLB at over 5 per game. They are 36-30 at Fenway Park this season.

Astros at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Cristian Javier vs. LHP Chris Sale

Javier (9-2, 4.52 ERA) will make his 25th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 127 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 5 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 9-4 home win against the Red Sox Monday
  • 2023 road stats: 4-1, 5.33 ERA (74 1/3 IP, 44 ER), .231 OBA in 14 starts
  • Has not lost a start since July 22

Sale (5-3, 4.68 ERA) will make his 15th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 in 73 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 7-5 road win at the Houston Astros Wednesday
  • 2023 home stats: 1-0, 3.69 ERA (31 2/3 IP, 13 ER), .190 OBA in 6 starts
  • Has not won a start since May 26

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Astros at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:04 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Astros +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Red Sox -125 (bet $125 to win $145)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-190) | Red Sox -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Astros at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 6, Red Sox 5

Moneyline

BET ASTROS (+105).

There is a reason that the odds are so tight for this game, it’s hard to handicap but I’m going to bet the talent of the Astros to get the victory.

Sale has not beaten the Astros since July 2, 2016.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I don’t like the run line either way in this game. I’m going to look toward the run total.

Over/Under

BET OVER 9.5 (-115).

These teams played a 4-game series just a week ago and all 4 games in that series went over this total. The Astros score over 5 runs per game on the road and the Red Sox score over 5 runs per game at home.

These 2 starters also allowed at least 3 ER in their last starts against each other’s teams.

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Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros (23-13) meet the Boston Red Sox (14-21) in the second game of their 3-game series at Fenway Park with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Boston won the series opener 6-3 Monday thanks to a 3-run bottom of the 8th-inning rally punctuated by SS Xander Bogaerts‘ 2-run home run.

Houston is 8-2 overall in its last 10 games but has lost 2 of its last 3 outings and Boston is just 4-6 in the last 10 but all 4 of those wins have come in the past 6 games.

Astros at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Jose Urquidy vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi 

Urquidy is 2-1 with a 4.40 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 across 28 2/3 IP over 6 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in Houston’s 11-3 road win over the Minnesota Twins Wednesday with 3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 3 K.
  • vs. Red Sox on the current roster: 1.23 FIP with a .177/.222/.265 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA), slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 32.3 K% and 88.6 mph exit velocity (EV) in 31 plate appearances (PA).

Eovaldi is 1-1 with a 3.15 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 40 IP over 7 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in Boston’s 5-3 loss at the Atlanta Braves Wednesday with 6 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 6 K.
  • vs. Astros on the current roster: 5.10 FIP with a .285/.360/.502 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 14.7 K% and 90.6 mph EV in 109 PA.

Astros at Red Sox odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:43 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Astros +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Red Sox -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-205) | Red Sox -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Astros at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 6, Red Sox 2

Money line

BET the ASTROS (+100) because the starting pitching matchup with the is a toss-up but Houston has a much more reliable bullpen and a more productive lineup.

Boston’s bullpen ranks in the bottom-10 of xFIP, home runs allowed per 9 innings, hard-hit rate and ERA, according to FanGraphs. While Houston’s bullpen is 3rd in ERA, 8th in home runs allowed per 9 innings and 9th in K/BB rate.

The Red Sox are just 10-17 overall vs. right-handed starters and rank 24th in wRC+ (88), 25th in both wOBA (.289) and WAR (1.8). Whereas the Astros rank 3rd in wRC+ (116), 10th in wOBA (.319) and 1st in WAR (8.3).

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Run line/Against the spread

Slight LEAN to the ASTROS -1.5 (+165) ALTERNATE RL, if at all, because Urquidy’s pitching peripherals against Boston are much stronger than Eovaldi’s against this Houston lineup.

The Red Sox are 2-3 RL as home underdogs and the Astros can put this game out of reach in the late innings against Boston’s weak bullpen.

Over/Under

PASS because more cash in the betting market is on the Under but more bets have been placed on the Over, per Pregame.com. This suggests professional bettors see Astros-Red Sox going Under the total while your average Joe sees all the power in both lineups and thinks to himself “take the Over”.

However, the Over has cashed in 7 of the last 9 Astros-Red Sox meetings, Fenway is a hitter-friendly ballpark and the weather forecast is predicting nearly 15 mph winds blowing out to right-centerfield.

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ALCS Game 5: Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox ALCS Game 5 odds and lines, with expert MLB picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros rallied late in Game 4 Tuesday to even up the best-of-seven American League Championship Series against the Boston Red Sox. The two meet again Wednesday with first pitch set for 5:08 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Astros LHP Framber Valdez makes his third start of this postseason. He has allowed 6 ER in 7 IP in the first two, but in the regular season, he was 11-6 with a 3.14 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 134 2/3 IP.

  • Valdez didn’t make it out of the third inning against Boston in Game 1. However, in two starts against the Red Sox back in June, he surrendered just 2 ER across 14 1/3 IP while racking up 18 punch outs.
  • He posted a mediocre 7.1 K/9 on the road this season, but was much stingier with the walks (3.0 BB/9) than he was at home. In total, he put up a strong 2.88 ERA across 11 road starts.

Red Sox LHP Chris Sale has struggled in his first two playoff starts, allowing a total of 6 ER in just 3 2/3 IP. After returning from injury late in the season, Sale made nine starts and went 5-1 with a 3.16 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 through 42 2/3 IP.

  • In six home starts, Sale recorded a 2.48 ERA and 11.2 K/9 to go along with four homers allowed in 29 IP.
  • In nine career regular season starts against the Astros, Sale boasts a 2.20 ERA and 11.8 K/9 in 65 1/3 IP.

Astros at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:44 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Astros +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Red Sox -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Astros +1.5 (-190) | Red Sox -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Prediction

Astros 6, Red Sox 4

Money line (ML)

The Astros need length from Valdez after their bullpen was forced to work 14 innings over the past two nights. He has been giving them that all season, going seven-plus innings in eight of 22 starts and at least five frames in each of his last 13 regular-season outings.

Sale’s surface numbers were strong once he came back, but he wasn’t his usual self as his 28.4% K% paled in comparison to the 36.7% mark he posted from 2017-2019.

He’ll face a stiff test in a Houston offense that led the league in wRC+ vs lefties and whiffed at the lowest rate against them (18.3%). With plus odds, the ASTROS (+105) are the side to take in this one.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Including the playoffs, eight of the 10 meetings between these two teams this year have been decided by four runs or more. Laying nearly 2-to-1 odds for +1.5 runs is a little steep, but the recommended play is to flip it to the alternate line of ASTROS -1.5 (+160).

Over/Under (O/U)

The total has gone over in each of the last seven playoff games for both of these teams. Given how taxed the Houston bullpen is and the fact that Sale hasn’t been as dominant as usual, that trend can be expected to continue.

Look for both offenses to do their part in pushing this total OVER 9.5 (-110).

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ALCS Game 4: Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox ALCS Game 4 odds and lines, with expert MLB picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox meet for Game 4 of the American League Championship Series Tuesday with first pitch scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Zack Greinke is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros. Greinke went 11-6 with a 4.16 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, and 1.9 BB/9 through 171 IP over 30 games (29 starts) in the regular season.

  •  Has logged one scoreless inning this postseason in Game 3 of the ALDS against the Chicago White Sox.
  • Owns a 10.22 ERA across four career games (three starts) at Fenway.
  • Logged an 11.74 ERA and 1.76 WHIP over his last four appearances of the regular season, and missed time during that stretch dealing with a neck injury.

RHP Nick Pivetta is the projected starter for the Red Sox. He went 9-8 with a 4.53 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, and 3.8 BB/9 through 155 IP over 31 regular-season games (30 starts).

  • Has made two long-relief appearances in the playoffs in which he allowed 3 ER on 7 H and 3 BB with 11 K over 8 2/3 IP.
  • Last pitched Oct. 10.
  • Posted 5.40 ERA in the regular season at Fenway. Owns a Boeing ERA (7.05) and 1.54 WHIP over his last 37 IP at home.

Astros at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:35 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Astros +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Red Sox -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Astros +1.5 (-180) | Red Sox -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Red Sox 6, Astros 4

Money line (ML)

The Boston offense has been on a rampage, and the Red Sox are up two games to one in this series. The Crimson Hose tallied 12 runs in a 12-3 rout Monday in Game 3; that after they scored 9 runs Saturday in Game 2. The Red Sox are 6-2 in the postseason and have scored 6 or more runs six times.

The Game 4 pitching matchup — and the bullpen situation behind the starters — is more in favor of the home nine than it appears to show on paper. Ride the momentum: BACK BOSTON (-135).

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Consider a half-unit rider on the above if you want to take a more aggressive stance on the Red Sox. With a Boston bullpen advantage and a high total, a RED SOX -1.5 (+155) wager has value. The +155 is attractive in the market if nothing else.

Over/Under (O/U)

Each side toted a three-Over streak into this series, and the Over has hit in all three games of the ALCS.

But the tag here nixes any value in getting these teams to 7-for-7: PASS.

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ALCS Game 3: Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox ALCS Game 3 odds and lines, with expert MLB picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox are locked up at a game apiece as the ALCS resumes in Boston Monday night. First pitch is set for 8:07 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Astros RHP Jose Urquidy will be making his first appearance of the 2021 postseason. He was 8-3 with a 3.62 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 107 IP across 20 starts in the regular season.

  • Notched a season-high 9 strikeouts while allowing 1 ER over 6 IP in his lone start against Boston this year.
  • Posted a 3.86 ERA and 8.0 K/9 across 56 IP over 10 road starts this season.

Red Sox LHP Eduardo Rodriguez makes his third playoff start. He allowed a combined 4 ER in 6 2/3 IP in his first two appearances. Rodriguez was 13-8 with a 4.74 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 through 157 2/3 IP across 31 starts and one relief appearance in the regular season.

  • He faced Houston twice this season and surrendered 6 ER in 4 2/3 IP in each start.
  • While Rodriguez recorded a strong 11.3 K/9 in his 13 home starts this season, the results weren’t pretty. He was roughed up to the tune of a 5.95 ERA, although a .383 BABIP deserves some of the blame.

Astros at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:17 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Astros +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Red Sox -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+155) | Red Sox +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Prediction

Astros 6, Red Sox 4

Money line (ML)

Houston has already beaten up on Rodriguez twice, as they often do against left-handers. They lead the league in wRC+ while striking out at the lowest rate (18.3%) against southpaws.

Houston was much better than Boston during the regular season, as their +205 run differential was fourth best in the league and far superior to the Red Sox +80 mark.

The ASTROS (+100) should come out on top and get back in the driver’s seat in this series.

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The skills say Rodriguez deserved a better fate this season, but he was prone to blowups at home and is facing a team that already knocked him around twice. The Houston bats should get back on track in this one.

On the other side, Urquidy’s skills didn’t quite support his 3.62 ERA. However, he was able to consistently avoid disasters and allowed more than 4 runs just once in 20 starts. He should be able to limit the damage and allow his team to win by multiple runs, so back the ASTROS -1.5 (+155).

Over/Under (O/U)

In addition to leading the league in wRC+ against lefties, the Astros rank second in runs per game on the road. Meanwhile, Boston scored 5.83 runs per game at home this season, tops in the league, and they were fifth in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching.

This is the highest total either of these teams has had in this year’s playoffs, but for good reason. There may be a lot of offensive fireworks in this one, so side with OVER 9.5 (+105).

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Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros (35-26) go for a three-game sweep of the Boston Red Sox (37-25) Thursday at Fenway Park. First pitch is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET (on MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Astros lead 5-1

Houston took the first two games of this series by scores of 7-1 Tuesday and 8-3 Wednesday.

RHP Zack Greinke is projected to start the finale for the Astros. He is 6-2 with a 3.38 ERA (82 2/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 6.5 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 over 13 starts this season.

  • Last outing: Complete-game win, 9 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 3 K in Houston’s 13-1 victory vs. Toronto Blue Jays in Buffalo, N.Y., Friday
  • Career vs. Red Sox: 2-5, 4.60 ERA (43 IP, 22 ER), 1.44 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 in 7 starts and 1 relief appearance

LHP Eduardo Rodriguez is projected to toe the hill for the Red Sox. He is 5-4 with a 5.59 ERA (58 IP, 36 ER), 1.41 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 across 11 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 7 K at New York Yankees Saturday – Red Sox won 7-3
  • Career vs. Astros (regular season): 1-3, 7.84 ERA (20 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.89 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 in 5 starts

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Astros at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 6:35 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Astros -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Red Sox -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+135) | Red Sox +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Astros 6, Red Sox 2

Money line (ML)

The ASTROS (-115) are the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager – due to a big advantage in the pitching matchup.

Greinke has struggled against the Red Sox in his career, but he is coming off a complete-game victory and is 3-1 with a 2.03 ERA (31 IP, 7 ER) in his last four starts.

Rodriguez is 0-3 with an 8.53 ERA (19 IP, 18 ER) in his last four starts, including a loss at Houston when he yielded 6 earned runs over 4 2/3 innings.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Back the ASTROS -1.5 (+135) with a HALF-UNIT wager. Houston covered the spread in the first two games of this series, and Greinke’s last four wins were each by at least 3 runs.

ATS records: Astros 31-30 | Red Sox 36-26

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 9 (-110) is worth a QUARTER-UNIT bet. The O/U is 1-1 in this series and 2-4 in their six head-to-head meetings in 2021.

AVOID if the line drops below 9.

O/U records: Astros 36-23-2 | Red Sox 28-33-1

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JOHNNY’S RECORD W-L SP ROI
2021 MLB 61-65-2 19-26-1 -10.835
2020 MLB 80-59-1 39-21 +24.79
2021 (all sports) 167-152-3 70-68-1 +4.275
*–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment

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