Heat Wizards odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Miami Heat at Washington Wizards odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Miami Heat at Washington Wizards odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Miami Heat (2-2) face the Washington Wizards (2-2) Saturday. Tip-off from Mexico, at the Arena Ciudad de Mexico, is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET (NBA TV). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Heat vs. Wizards odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Heat won last season’s series 3-1

After dropping their first 2 games, the Wizards are back to .500 beating the Atlanta Hawks on the road and at home. Washington pulled away in the 4th quarter of their last game, dropping 40 points. They also outscored the Hawks 25-12 in fast-break points and won outright as home underdogs (+4.5) 133-120.

The Miami Heat hosted the New York Knicks, as a home underdog, on Wednesday. G Tyler Herro led the Heat with 34, making 8 of 13 3s, which was almost half of Miami’s total buckets from beyond the arc (17). But the Knicks’ new center Karl-Anthony Towns scored 44 to give Miami their 2nd home loss in 3 games, 116-107.

Heat at Wizards odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NBA odds. Lines last updated at 10:40 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat -450 (bet $450 to win $100) | Wizards +350 (bet $100 to win $350)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat -9.5 (-110) | Wizards +9.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 222.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Heat at Wizards key injuries

Heat

C Kevin Love (personal reasons) out
F Duncan Robinson (personal reasons) out

Wizards

F Saddiq Bey (knee) out
G Malcolm Brogdon (thumb) out
F Kyle Kuzma (groin) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Heat at Wizards picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 112, Wizards 101

Moneyline

Miami’s offense, while ugly, protects the ball and spreads it around. The Heat have the highest assists per field goal made (0.73) and the second highest assist to turnover ratio (2.29).

Despite being the “road” team, the Heat won’t struggle with the fans with the game in Mexico. However, with the current lines I would PASS here and look to the spread.

Against the spread

While Miami has only covered once this season (1-3), and that time they were a road favorite. The Wizards, when giving a ton of points, have not kept it close. In their 2 losses, they were +14 and +9.5. In each of those games they lost by an average of 19.5 points.

While it’s a big spread, I still think the Heat will win and cover tonight.

LEAN HEAT -9.5 (-110).

Over/Under

Miami’s posts a bottom 5 shooting percentage this season (43.6%). Washington is slightly better (44.9%), but Miami’s top 5 defense will make scoring difficult. In a new venue, I see a low-scoring matchup. The total has already dropped 2 points Saturday morning, which means the books agree.

BET UNDER 222.5 (-105).

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Miami Heat at Washington Wizards odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Miami Heat at Washington Wizards odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Washington Wizards (14-60) welcome the Miami Heat (40-33) to Capital One Arena Sunday. Tip is set for 6 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Wizards odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Season series: Heat lead 2-1.

While the Heat lead the season series 2-1, the Wizards are 2-1 against the spread (ATS) in those matchups. They are coming off a 96-87 home loss to the Detroit Pistons Friday, failing to cover as a 3.5-point favorite. The Wizards have lost 7 of their last 10 and are 3-7 ATS in that span. They are 33-39-2 ATS on the season.

The Heat have won 5 of their last 8 and are coming off a 142-82 home win over the Portland Trail Blazers Friday, covering as a 14-point favorite. Miami has spent the last 4 games at home and are 2-2 straight up and ATS in those. It is 35-37-1 ATS on the season. The Heat are led by F Jimmy Butler, who is averaging 21.1 points per game.

Heat at Wizards odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat -590 (bet $590 to win $100) | Wizards +430 (bet $100 to win $430)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat -11 (-110) | Wizards +11 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 217 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Heat at Wizards key injuries

Heat

G Tyler Herro (foot) out
F Jaime Jaquez Jr. (ankle) available
G Caleb Martin (ankle) out
G Duncan Robinson (back) probable

Wizards

F Bilal Coulibaly (wrist) out
G Tyus Jones (back) out
F Kyle Kuzma (heel) questionable
G Landry Shamet (calf) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Heat at Wizards picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 108, Wizards 103

Moneyline

PASS.

The Heat are rightfully a strong favorite, and given the expensive odds, there’s no value in playing them to win outright. Similarly, the Wizards are missing too many key pieces to take to pull off the upset.

Against the spread

BET WIZARDS +11 (-110).

Washington has covered its last 2 games as a double-digit underdog, beating the Bulls by 2 on the road and beating the Kings by 7 at home yet closing as a 13-point and 11-point underdog respectively. The Wizards will have some capable scoring with 4 players averaging double figures set to be active.

The Heat are 1-2 ATS in their last 3 games as a double-digit favorite. They have failed to top 92 points in 2 of their last 4, so the Heat may not have the firepower offensively to pull away by a sizable margin.

That said, back WIZARDS +11 (-110).

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 217 (-108).

Miami is 3-9 O/U in its last 12 games and has scored 92 or fewer in 4 of its last 9. The Heat will be missing Robinson and Herro, 2 of their top-5 scoring options which could hurt their offensive efficiency.

The Wizards, who play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA, have scored 107 or fewer in 4 of their last 8 and put up just 87 in their last game. The Heat won’t look to push the pace and have a strong, efficiency defense that should be able to limit a shorthanded Washington side.

Combine it all together and back UNDER 217 (-108).

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Miami Heat at Washington Wizards odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Miami Heat at Washington Wizards odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat (43-37) face the Washington Wizards (34-46) on Friday at Capital One Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Wizards odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Heat beat the Philadelphia 76ers 129-101 on Thursday to cover as 2.5-point road underdogs. Miami has won 3 straight games and is 1 game behind the Brooklyn Nets for the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference with 2 games remaining.

The Wizards failed to cover as 12.5-point road underdogs in their 134-116 loss to the Atlanta Hawks Wednesday. Washington has lost 4 consecutive games and 8 of its last 10 outings.

This will be the fourth season meeting between Miami and Washington. The Heat are 2-1 straight up and 2-0-1 against the spread in the first 3 meetings as the Over has cashed twice. All 3 meetings occurred in November.

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Heat at Wizards odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:03 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Wizards +190 (bet $100 to win $190)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat -5.5 (-115) | Wizards +5.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 217.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Heat at Wizards key injuries

Heat

Not Yet Submitted

Wizards

F Deni Avdija (elbow) out
G Bradley Beal (knee) out
F Kyle Kuzma (ankle) out
G Monte Morris (ankle) out
F Kristaps Porzingis (illness) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Heat at Wizards picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 110, Wizards 102

Moneyline

PASS.

It remains to be seen if the Heat (-225) play their usual starters on a back-to-back despite their outside chance of getting the No. 6 seed. So with both teams potentially having multiple starters out, I’ll pass on the money line in this game.

Against the spread

HEAT -5.5 (-115) is the lean in this game, though, I wouldn’t be confident in siding with either team in this contest. However, the Wizards have 4 of their 5 starters sidelined and they’ve struggled to keep games close recently.

The Heat are 28-11-2 ATS in the last 41 road meetings against the Wizards and 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings overall.

Over/Under

With the uncertainty of who is going to suit up for the Heat, I’ll lean toward taking UNDER 217.5 (-105). Both of these teams are bottom 11 in pace and Miami is 9th in defensive rating.

The Heat are 5-1 to the Under in their last 6 games playing on 0 days of rest.

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Miami Heat at Washington Wizards odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Miami Heat at Washington Wizards odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat (7-8) take on the Washington Wizards (8-7) Friday at Capital One Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Wizards odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Heat were defeated 112-104 by the Toronto Raptors Wednesday as they fell short of covering as 3-point road underdogs. Miami was on a 3-game win streak before the loss.

The Wizards lost as 5.5-point favorites in heartbreaking fashion 121-120 to the Oklahoma City Thunder Wednesday as G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander hit a game-winning shot with 1.9 seconds remaining. Washington had reeled off 4 straight wins before the loss.

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Heat at Wizards odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Wizards -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat +1.5 (-115) | Wizards -1.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 217.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Heat at Wizards key injuries

Heat

C Bam Adebayo (knee) questionable
C Dewayne Dedmon (foot) questionable
G Tyler Herro (ankle) out
G Caleb Martin (knee) questionable

Wizards

G Jordan Goodwin (knee) questionable
G Delon Wright (hamstring) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Heat at Wizards picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 114, Wizards 110

Moneyline

Even with Adebayo uncertain to play on Friday, HEAT (-105) is where I’m leaning in this game following a disappointing loss to Toronto. F Jimmy Butler finished with only 13 points, 1 rebound, 5 assists and 5 turnovers in the loss to the Raptors, so I’m expecting a bounce-back game from him.

Against the spread

Being that I took Miami to win on Friday against Washington, HEAT +1.5 (-115) makes sense as my pick against the spread. If Miami does have Adebayo available, the spread could favor the Heat more, so I’m fine taking the current spread before that news potentially breaks.

The Heat are 27-11-2 ATS in their last 40 road meetings against the Wizards.

Over/Under

OVER 217.5 (-110) appears to be the ideal choice in this game given the current trends for both of these teams. Washington has hit the Over in 3 of its last 4 games while Miami has hit the Over in 5 consecutive contests.

The Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between the Heat and the Wizards in Washington and it’s 12-5 in the last 17 meetings overall.

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Miami Heat at Washington Wizards odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Miami Heat at Washington Wizards odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat (34-20) head to the nation’s capital Monday for a 7 p.m. ET showdown with the Washington Wizards (24-28) at Capital One Arena. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Wizards odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Miami has won and covered back-to-back road games over the San Antonio Spurs (112-95 Thursday) and the Charlotte Hornets (104-86 Saturday) following a three-game losing skid. The Heat are 4-3 straight up (SU) and 3-4 against the spread (ATS) over the last two weeks.

Washington has dropped seven of its last eight games (1-7 ATS) including its latest outing, 95-80, versus the Phoenix Suns at home as an 8-point underdog Saturday.

The Heat are 2-1 SU but just 1-2 ATS versus the Wizards this season.

Heat at Wizards odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:52 a.m. ET.

Money line: Heat -270 (bet $270 to win $100) | Wizards +210 (bet $100 to win $210)
Against the spread: Heat -6.5 (-107) | Wizards +6.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 207.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Heat at Wizards key injuries

Heat

SF Jimmy Butler (toe) questionable
SG Tyler Herro (knee) questionable
SF Caleb Martin (Achilles) questionable
SF Max Strus (quadriceps) questionable

Wizards

SG Bradley Beal (wrist) out
C Daniel Gafford (health and safety protocols) out

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Heat at Wizards odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 111, Wizards 103

Money line

PASS.

Miami is obviously the right side but the Heat (-270) are a little out of my price range for an NBA regular-season money line favorite. Especially considering Miami could be without its leading scorer and the odds-on favorite currently to win the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year award.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to the HEAT -6.5 (-107) because the Over is actually my favorite bet in this contest.

However, Miami has covered six of its last eight games versus teams with a losing record and won two of its three meetings with Washington by at least 7 points.

Plus the Heat have a decisive edge in rebounding and more rebounds mean more possessions, which usually leads to more points. Miami has a plus-3.0 rebound-per-game differential whereas Washington’s is minus-0.9.

Instead of betting Miami’s full-game spread, I’d prefer to take a shot at the HEAT -2.5 FIRST-HALF SPREAD (-122).

Miami has a plus-5.7 first-half scoring margin and Washington has a minus-11.7 first-half scoring margin over their last three games.

Over/Under

BET the OVER 207.5 (-115) as a fade against the heavy line movement with the total.

The Heat-Wizards game opened with a 214-point total and has been steamed down to the current price presumably because of Miami’s injury report.

However, I’d consider this an overreaction since Butler’s absence hurts both the Heat’s offense and defense and Miami is 12-7 O/U in games Butler misses.

The absence of Gafford also means Washington will play PF Montrezl Harrell more who’s instant offense from the bench.

Miami is ninth in adjusted offensive free-throw rate (FTr) and Washington is seventh, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). The Heat are 26th in adjusted defensive FTr and the Wizards are 21st, per CTG.

All three referees assigned to this game have also officiated more Overs and the officiating crew has a combined 57-48 O/U record.

The OVER 207.5 (-115) is my favorite wager in this game.

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