Mountain West Football: Week 7 Winners And Losers

Air Force, UNLV, and Timmy Chang headline the week’s winners and losers in Mountain West football.

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Mountain West Football: Week 7 Winners And Losers


Who came out ahead and who left something to be desired across the Mountain West in Week 7 of the college football season?


Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Encouragements and letdowns from the week that was.

Conference play was in full swing on Friday night and Saturday and who knew that college football and spooky season would have so much in common? Six Mountain West clashes begat four results decided by eight or fewer points, leaving just about everyone on the edge of their seats all weekend long.

Who’s living with the horrors in the aftermath, though? Here are the winners and losers from Week 7 of Mountain West football.

Winners

1. Air Force

If any questions existed about whether the Falcons were the class of the Mountain West, they were silenced until further notice on Saturday with a hard-fought 34-27 victory at home against Wyoming.

The Cowboys had been widely considered Air Force’s toughest opponent to date and they did jump out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter, but after the Falcons went three-and-out on their first possession, they would score on five straight drives and later overcome two fumbles in a row to get their biggest play of the game when they needed it most, a 58-yard John Lee Eldridge III touchdown to give the Falcons a lead they wouldn’t relinquish with about two minutes left in the game.

Now one of only two undefeated teams in Mountain West play, Air Force controls its destiny headed into the first leg of the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy round-robin next Saturday. Perhaps it’s fitting for a team that already plays its home games a mile above sea level, but the sky is now the limit for Troy Calhoun’s cadets.

2. UNLV

For a college athlete, few things must feel better than pasting a bitter rival on their home field. That’s exactly what the Rebels did on Saturday in a 45-27 pasting of the Nevada Wolf Pack, just the second time since 2005 that the program has won back-to-back contests in the Silver State clash.

Though UNLV has made huge strides throughout the season thanks to a deep stable of running backs, Week 7 was Donovyn Lester’s time to shine with touchdown runs of one, 16, and 66 yards on just ten carries. Freshman quarterback Jayden Maiava also had the best overall game of his young career by completing 20-of-25 throws for 257 yards and two touchdowns, while the defense generated three sacks, five three-and-outs and three takeaways. It was a total team effort for the team’s biggest Fremont Cannon victory in nearly two decades, and they aren’t done yet.

3. Colorado State

When Dallin Holker scooped the tip drill into his hands mere inches above the end zone turf to seal the Rams’ stunning 31-30 comeback victory over Boise State, the program’s first-ever win against the Broncos exorcised a wealth of demons.

While the furious fourth-quarter rally deservedly received attention in the aftermath, it took the entire second half to erase deficits of 17-0 and 30-10 and seal the deal. The defense stiffened, forcing two key three-and-outs and limiting the Broncos to 4.3 yards per play after giving up 7.0 YPP in the first two quarters. The offense, meanwhile, came to life and managed 7.2 YPP in the last 30 minutes after wasting three first-half Boise State turnovers.

Does this mean the program has finally turned a corner under head coach Jay Norvell? It’s hard to say, but perhaps they’re learning to play more effectively under pressure since CSU is now 2-1 on the year in games decided by eight or fewer points. Regardless of what happens from here, fans in Fort Collins are going to remember this one for a long time.

Losers

1. Boise State

Then again, you might say the same of the blue and orange faithful for the opposite reason. The two-quarterback gambit didn’t work as effectively as it did against San Jose State in Week 6 because Maddux Madsen and Taylen Green combined to finish 16-of-25 for 140 yards with two interceptions. Ashton Jeanty had another Herculean performance (254 all-purpose yards, three touchdowns), but the Broncos offense doesn’t appear to have any consistently reliable options outside of him and Jonah Dalmas.

The defense, though. After holding Colorado State to five three-and-outs on their first six offensive possessions, they had few answers for Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi down the stretch: He finished the game by completing 11 of his last 17 attempts, including four explosive pass plays totaling 116 yards, and three touchdowns in the last six minutes. It was the latest evidence of something systemic we haven’t seen before in Boise, evidenced by another ten missed tackles (according to Pro Football Focus), and it may not be the kind of thing this coaching staff can solve in time to salvage the 2023 campaign.

2. Hawaii head coach Timmy Chang

Facing a ten-point deficit at your opponent’s 30-yard line with one minute left in the game, do you push for the end zone or settle for three points and hope for a lucky bounce? In Chang’s case, he opted for the latter; while Matthew Shipley was true from 47 yards, Hawaii never got the ball back and suffered a 41-34 at home to San Diego State.

Chang was apologetic about the decision-making during his post-game press conference, but social media reactions were divided about whether he needed to be. Making the decision on second down rather than rolling the dice, especially after quarterback Brayden Schager had completed back-to-back 17- and 21-yard passes, didn’t sit well with many fans, serving as a reminder that the role of head coach can often be a very difficult one.

3. New Mexico defensive coordinator Troy Reffett

It was always going to be a tall order replacing both Rocky Long and the defensive talent that left the program through the transfer portal last off-season, but the Lobos appear to be regressing badly here after a 52-24 shellacking by San Jose State.

The Spartans mustered 10.8 yards per play, the highest average by a New Mexico opponent since 2016, thanks to 15 explosive plays that added up to a whopping 472 yards. Two defensive holding and two pass interference calls didn’t help matters, either, so unless they can find some answers quickly, the bounceback hoped for by UNM supporters may not materialize this fall.

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Week 7 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets

The Mountain West rolls on and we once again look at where you should place your money this week.

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Week 7 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets


A look at the Mountain West betting odds for Week 7


Contact/Follow @J0shFr3d & @MWCwire

What are the oddsmakers saying about these match ups?

Late in the week we will look at odds and recent lines and make our best picks and bets. Odds courtesy of Vegas Insider.

We went 1-2 in week six and are 33-23-1 on the year. Another week below .500. At this point, just take the opposite of what I do.

Fresno State @ Utah state (+5.5, O/U 54.5)

Fresno State’s defense is allowing less than 300 yards a game. Utah State hasn’t really faced good defenses this year outside of Air Force and Iowa. The Bulldogs offense is going to drive this scoreline. If they can finish drives, they’ll cover easy. If they can’t, it will be a close one.

Pick: Fresno State -5.5

UNLV @ Nevada (+7.5, O/U 53.5)

Rivalry games usually mean you throw the stats out of the window. However, this year’s Nevada team is the exception to the rule. They are next to last in almost all categories. UNLV on the other hand is one of this years surprises. Barry Odom has this team on the verge of bowl eligibility in year one. The Rebels offense is still finding an identity but they execute well.

Pick: UNLV -7.5

San Jose State @ New Mexico (+7.5, O/U 55.5)

The Spartans are not the team anyone thought they were going to be this year. They are really struggling on offense. New Mexico has been a surprise. They have somewhat of an offense and seem to be trending in the right direction. I think they’ll surprise people in this game and cover, if not outright win.

Pick: New Mexico +7.5

Wyoming @ Air Force (-11.5, O/U 42.5)

Yeah, no idea what to really go with here. Craig Bohl has a winning record against Air Force. This is Air Force’s first real test of the year. This seems like the perfect time for a ball control classic from Troy Calhoun. Expect the Falcons to slog it out one play at a time and take 10 minutes per drive.

Pick: Under

Boise State @ Colorado state (+8.5, O/U 60.5)

Slam the over right now! I’m comfortable taking the over up to 69.5. I feel it could go 80+, but you never know. Both defenses have been horrible and both offenses have shown they can light it up at times. The Rams are on homecoming and coming off an embarrassing loss, so lets see what happens.

Pick: Over

San Diego State @ Hawai’i (+6, O/U 52.5)

Umm, yeah. What to really do here. Hawai’i seems like they can cover here. They have a decent defense against a horrid Aztecs offense. The really battle will come down to whether or not the Warriors can move the ball. They’ve struggled at times this year, but the Aztecs aren’t the defense we’ve known them to be this season.

Pick: Hawai’i +6

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Mountain West Football: 2023 Midseason Team Grades

How has each Mountain West team fared now that the season is half-finished? We grade offense, defense, and special teams.

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Mountain West Football: 2023 Midseason Team Grades


How has each Mountain West team fared now that the season is half-finished? We grade offense, defense, and special teams.


Contact/Follow @MattK_FS and @MWCwire

Who’s made the grade and who hasn’t?

Now that most Mountain West teams have played six games, the conference’s 2023 football season has reached its halfway point. While some things have played out as predicted, several squads are rising while others have fallen off, which means now is as good a time as any to assess just how well each team has done.

First, for the sake of context, keep these links handy as some particular statistics will be mentioned in most team sections:

Midseason Grades By Team

Air Force | Boise State | Colorado State | Fresno State | Hawaii | Nevada | New Mexico | San Diego State | San Jose State | UNLV | Utah State | Wyoming

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Week 6 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets

The Mountain West takes a little break as there are only 3 games this week. Here’s what you should be looking for this week.

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Week 6 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets


A look at the Mountain West betting odds for Week 6


Contact/Follow @J0shFr3d & @MWCwire

What are the oddsmakers saying about these match ups?

Late in the week we will look at odds and recent lines and make our best picks and bets. Odds courtesy of Vegas Insider.

We went 4-3 in week five and are 32-21-1 on the year. First week above .500 in a few. Lets make it two in a row.

#24 Fresno State @ Wyoming (+6.5, O/U 42.5)

The premier matchup of the Mountain West season so far. The Bulldogs head to Laramie to face the Cowboys on Fox. Fresno State hasn’t missed a beat after losing Jake Haener to graduation. Wyoming still doesn’t have a quarterback. I think the Bulldogs remain in control of the MW.

Pick: Fresno State -6.5

Colorado State @ Utah State (+2.5, O/U 62.5)

A game between two top offenses and two bottom defenses. This game will determine bowl eligibility for both squads. CSU has started picking it up on offense and the defense needs to come along with it. Utah State is a second half team, but the Aggies will struggle to contain the Rams offense.

Pick: Colorado State -2.5

San Jose State @ Boise State (-9.5, O/U 57.5)

Boise hasn’t shown me enough this year to be confident in this spread. Their defense hasn’t been great and has just enough holes to let the Spartans get some scores to push this total higher. The over hasn’t moved since it game out and it’s probably a safe bet to hit.

Pick: Over

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Mountain West Football: Players Of The Month For August/September

With the first several chapters of the 2023 season in the books, who have been Mountain West football’s biggest standouts so far?

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Mountain West Football: Players of the Month For August/September


With the first several chapters of the 2023 season in the books, who have been Mountain West football’s biggest standouts so far?


Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

The small-sample elite.

Note: Players below are presented in alphabetical order.

Offensive Players of the Month

1. Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB, New Mexico

The Lobos’ lead running back has a strong case as the biggest individual surprise of the young season, posting 420 rushing yards at 6.77 yards per carry with seven touchdowns in five games. According to Pro Football Focus, he also ranks second among Mountain West running backs with 26 missed tackles forced on just 62 attempts and first with a 92.1 overall grade. He’s a definite keeper.

2. Tory Horton, WR, Colorado State

Horton has picked up where he left off last season in a big way, leading the nation with 11.3 receptions and 135 receiving yards per game through four contests. He’s also scored six times in the last three games and posted an overall PFF grade of 90.0, second among conference pass catchers, helping establish the Rams’ offensive potency with a new quarterback and emerging playmakers in tow.

3. Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State

Perhaps no player in the conference has meant as much to his offense as the sophomore Texan means to the Broncos. He currently leads the Mountain West with 165.3 all-purpose yards per game and the entire FBS with 12 total touchdowns in just five games, so while Boise State clearly has a number of issues to sort out, getting the ball to #2 should remain a priority while they do so.

4. Zac Larrier, QB, Air Force

Through five games, Larrier has achieved a rare combination of efficiency and explosiveness, especially among Falcons quarterbacks of recent vintage. His 362 rushing yards currently rank fifth among all players in the Mountain West and first among FBS QBs, but he’s also connected on 14-of-19 throws for 410 yards, a staggering 21.6 yards per attempt, and accounted for six total touchdowns (three rushing, three passing). It’s little wonder, then, that PFF has given him the highest grade among all Mountain West quarterbacks to date at 82.6.

Defensive Players of the Month

1. Mohamed Kamara, DE, Colorado State

Kamara entered 2023 as arguably the conference’s premier pass rusher and nothing he’s done in four games has dissuaded anyone of that notion. Besides leading the Mountain West with 6.5 sacks and eight tackles for loss and forcing two fumbles, PFF credits Kamara with 13 quarterback hurries (third in the conference) and 12 stops for good measure.

2. Ike Larsen, S, Utah State

Larsen has continued to be a man of impeccable timing in the young season. His 36 total tackles put him in a tie for second among Mountain West defensive backs, but it’s the highlight plays — the pick-six against Idaho State and the two blocked kicks, including the game-saving play in a Week 5 road win over UConn — that have made him one of the most valuable defenders anywhere in the conference from day one.

3. Bo Richter, DE, Air Force

The Mountain West’s best defense has shined on every front thus far, but few individuals have stood out like Richter. Though he’s tallied 14 total tackles, PFF credits the senior with 16 quarterback hurries, seventh among all FBS defenders, and only one missed fumble to go along with his 5.5 tackles for loss, three sacks, and one forced fumble.

4. Noah Tumblin, CB, San Diego State

The Aztecs secondary has been busy throughout 2023 to date, so you might be forgiven for not noticing that Tumblin is in the midst of a breakout season. Not only does he lead all Mountain West defensive backs with a 85.5 overall PFF grade and a 88.7 grade in coverage, Tumblin currently paces the conference with ten passes defended (eight pass breakups, two interceptions) and has only missed one tackle in six games.

Mountain West Football: Week 5 Winners And Losers

Mountain West Football: Week 5 Winners And Losers Who came out ahead and who left something to be desired across the Mountain West in Week 5 of the college football season? Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire Encouragements and letdowns from the …

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Mountain West Football: Week 5 Winners And Losers


Who came out ahead and who left something to be desired across the Mountain West in Week 5 of the college football season?


Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Encouragements and letdowns from the week that was.

A few more Mountain West teams got to dip their toe into conference play during Saturday’s Mountain West football slate and, at least at this juncture, it seems very clear who will be a contender and who is not. Here are the winners and losers from Week 5 of Mountain West football.

Winners

1. Air Force quarterback Zac Larrier

It was generally thought that succeeding Haaziq Daniels, who had done an exceptional job of replacing Donald Hammond III before him, would be a tall order for coordinator Mike Thiessen to sort out, but Larrier has arguably been the best overall offensive player of the season thus far in the Mountain West.

The latest evidence came in the Falcons’ 49-10 drubbing of San Diego State, in which Larrier completed 6-of-7 throws for 189 yards and two touchdowns while also running for a team-high 103 yards on just eight carries, including explosive runs for 41 and 34 yards.

Though 17 other Mountain West quarterbacks have more than Larrier’s 19 pass attempts, the Falcons’ QB ranks first in completion percentage, first in yards per attempt, and is one of two without an interception so far. At this point, if you aren’t paying attention, you’re missing out.

2. Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty

Say what you will about some of the questionable decision-making made by Broncos coaches on Saturday afternoon, you’d probably be right when, these days, the answer always seems to be, “just get the ball to Ashton Jeanty.”

The young running back scored a career-high four touchdowns and accounted for 135 all-purpose yards as Boise State fell 35-32 to Memphis. While it proved to be tougher sledding overall against the Tigers — his 3.6 yards per carry were a season low — Jeanty continues to be the obvious focal point of an offense in dire need of more consistency elsewhere.

3. Utah State

Man alive, if football games were only three quarters then the Aggies would be nationally ranked by now. After a dreadful first half in which 63 of the offense’s 97 yards came on a touchdown throw from McCae Hillstead to Colby Bowman and they trailed 17-7, Utah State roared back to score on five straight drives and average 8.2 yards per play to outlast UConn in a 34-33 rollercoaster.

Wide receiver Jalen Royals and quarterback Cooper Legas, who replaced Hillstead after the starter suffered a concussion, led the comeback effort with three second-half touchdown connections, completing all seven passes between them for 185 yards. Oh, yes, and let’s not forget Ike Larsen’s blocked extra point with forty seconds left in the fourth quarter, late-game heroics that kept the Huskies from taking the game to overtime.

If nothing else, they’ve developed into the Mountain West’s true wild card, capable of anything in the course of a game.

4. Colorado State wide receiver Tory Horton

Normally, our lists consist of three but when you grab ten receptions for the third game in a row, score three touchdowns for the third time in your career, and post a career-high 227 receiving yards, it’s a rule that you have to be included among the winners.

Losers

1. Boise State head coach Andy Avalos

The Broncos scored on five of six trips inside the red zone on Saturday, but it’s the one time they didn’t come away with points during the defeat at Memphis that’s become the latest emblem of the program’s seeming mortality.

Facing a 4th-and-1 situation at the Tigers’ seven-yard line late in the third quarter, nursing a 17-14 lead, the decision to settle a field goal could not have been more disastrous. When Geoffrey Cantin-Arku blocked Jonah Dalmas’s attempt and returned it 80 yards the other way for a touchdown, it changed the entire tenor of the game. It was playing not to lose, and Boise State isn’t supposed to play not to lose. Though it ultimately came down to a very closely reviewed touchdown for the home team to escape, it’s hard to remember when the Broncos seemed to be in such dire straits.

Who will be the starting quarterback against San Jose State next weekend: Taylen Green or Maddux Madsen? Can anyone rush the passer? Can anyone stop giving up big pass plays? Regarding the latter two questions, the Broncos have given up 7.88 yards per play against FBS competition to date, a number that can no longer be solely explained away by the Washington game and should feel particularly galling when you consider that is supposed to be Avalos’s wheelhouse. Not even another 2022-esque turnaround could cool his seat entirely at this point, at least as far as the fans are concerned.

2. Hawaii’s pass protection

By this point, it seems plain as day that the Warriors are going to struggle to consistently protect Brayden Schager. They allowed six sacks, 13 quarterback hurries, and 21 total pressures in a 44-20 loss to UNLV, undercutting what had otherwise been one of the offense’s best overall showings this season. At what can be considered the rough halfway point of their year, the Warriors are allowing 4.17 sacks per game, the most in the Mountain West, and that doesn’t seem like it will change soon.

3. Nevada

Maybe it’s beating a dead horse at this point, but the Wolf Pack looked overmatched on the road in a 27-9 defeat to Fresno State. It didn’t even feel as close as the final score would suggest: AJ Bianco’s 19-yard scoring toss to Spencer Curtis with 11 seconds to go was the team’s only offensive touchdown (and a bad beat for Fresno State bettors at that), the offense gained 40.9% of its total offensive yardage on that final scoring drive, they managed roughly half as many yards per play as they allowed to Fresno State (3.3 to 6.9), and the team also saddled itself with a season-high ten penalties for 98 yards. One step forward, three steps back.

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UNLV Football: Rebels beat Hawaii 44-20 to take home the Golden Pineapple

The UNLV Rebels beat the Hawaii Warriors 44-20 to win the Golden Pineapple trophy on Saturday afternoon. It was the third straight game the Rebels have scored 40 or more points.

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The UNLV Rebels beat the Hawaii Warriors 44-20 to win the Golden Pineapple trophy on Saturday afternoon. It was the third straight game the Rebels have scored 40 or more points.

 

“This game was not only important to our team and to our university but also to Las Vegas,” Rebels head coach Barry Odom said. With conference play starting, the ability to continue the momentum we have built so far in our program and the importance of every single conference game are huge for where we are trying to get to. This is the first time we have scored 40 points in three straight games; that’s tremendous. We had a great offensive performance. We had six sacks and didn’t give up any on the other side. That’s complimentary football. When we can do that and play well in all three phases together, we’ve got an opportunity to continue to play winning ball … I’m proud of this team for what we’ve done now through five weeks.”

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The Rebels were led by an outstanding rushing attack that netted 307 yards. Six different Rebel runners finished with more than 30 yards on the ground, led by Donavyn Lester’s best day with UNLV (98 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries). Courtney Reese added two rushing touchdowns on 32 yards.

“We just enjoy being around the team, the players on a team, running back Donavyn Lester said. “We just try to build each other up every day. We have many selfless guys who don’t care who gets the ball.” 

UNLV’s defense played well; they held the Warriors to 46 yards rushing and had six sacks on the day. Safety Johnathan Baldwin finished with nine tackles, including two for a loss and a sack.

 Quarterback Jayden Maiava completed only 11 passes, but two were touchdowns, including a 16-yarder to running back Vincent Davis Jr. to open the scoring as the Rebels built a 20-3 halftime lead and never looked back.

The Rebels played aggressive man-to-man defense and gave up some long passes; once they clean that up, their defense would be even better. Rebels defensive coordinator Mike Scherer brought in a new scheme that works for the Rebels.

“The Scheme he brought in allows us to play fast run and make many plays. His motto is run and hit,” Rebels safety Johnathan Baldwin said.

 

Week 5 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets

And we rolling, rolling, rolling! Mountain West football reaches week 5. And here’s how you can lose your money this week.

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Week 5 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets


A look at the Mountain West betting odds for Week 5


Contact/Follow @J0shFr3d & @MWCwire

What are the oddsmakers saying about these match ups?

Late in the week we will look at odds and recent lines and make our best picks and bets. Odds courtesy of Vegas Insider.

We went 3-6-1 in week four and are 28-18-1 on the year. Our first week below .500. Time to pick it up.

Utah State @ UCONN (+4.5, O/U 51.5)

UConn is not a good team this year. They haven’t scored above 17 points in a game this year. Utah State isn’t that good either, but they’re better than UConn. Watch for the Aggies to struggle early, before pulling it out in the second half and running away with it.

Pick: Utah State -4.5

BOise State @ Memphis (-2.5, O/U 58.5)

Maybe this line is based on Boise’s history, but it feels disrespectful to Memphis. The only thing I can see is that Memphis has trouble defending the run. Boise is pretty good at that, but that’s pretty much all they can do. The Tigers pick up the win and cover before really starting conference play.

Pick: Memphis -2.5

Hawai’i @ UNLV (-10.5, O/U 58.5)

*Insert Nathan Fillion confused gif here* This is the trap game of the week in the Mountain West. Does the run and shoot get off and running? Or do the Rebels continue their hot start to the year? Who knows, but I expect Hawai’i to have something to say and keep this one close.

Pick: Hawai’i +10.5

New Mexico @ Wyoming (-13.5, O/U 40.5)

Craig Bohl has trouble with New Mexico. Since 2014 he is 4-5 against the Lobos. The Cowboys do not have an offense. They are ranked bottom 10 in the country in yards per game. The Lobos will have some spark after last weeks win at UMass and will cover against the Cowboys.

Pick: New Mexico +13.5

Utah Tech @ Colorado State (No Line)

CSU, end of story. Utah Tech has given up 36 points in every game this year and this is the perfect opportunity for the Rams to work out any issues before hitting conference play.

Pick: Colorado State

San Diego State @ Air Force (-10.5, O/U 42.5)

Is it time to bring back the Spaztecs nick name yet? San Diego State doesn’t really have an offense, which is nothing new. But they don’t really have the defense to keep them in games anymore. And now they run into the machine that is the Air Force triple option.

Pick: Air Force -10.5

Nevada @ #25 Fresno State (-24.5, O/U 50.5)

Fresno will probably hit the over by themselves again. I took the under last week after a disappointing performance against the Sun Devils. The Wolf Pack are not the Sun Devils. Expect the Bulldogs to run wild in this one.

Pick: Over

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Why The UNLV Rebels Can Win, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction

The UNLV Rebels open up Mountain West play against the Hawaii Warriors on Saturday at home.

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WEEK 5: UNLV Rebels 3-1 vs. Hawaii Warriors Cowboys 2-3,

WHEN: Saturday, September 30, 1 PM PT

WHERE:  Allegiant Stadium; Las Vegas, NV

TV: Spectrum Pay-Per-View (Hawaii only) and Silver State Sports and Entertainment Network (southern Nevada only) or Team 1 Sports app

RADIO: The Hawaii broadcast can be found and streamed on ESPN Honolulu or the Sideline Hawaii app, which is available on Google and Apple). The UNLV broadcast can be found on ESPN 1100 AM and 100.9 FM.

SERIES RECORD: Hawaii leads the all-time series, 19-13. In the last meeting on November 19, 2022, the Warriors defeated the Rebels, 31-25, in Honolulu.

LAST GAME : Hawaii defeated New Mexico State at home, 20-17, while UNLV beat UTEP on the road, 48-20.

WEBSITES:  HawaiiAthletics.com, the official Hawaii athletics website | UNLVRebels.com, the official UNLV athletics website

GAME NOTES: Hawaii | UNLV

ODDS:  UNLV -11

Hawaii vs. UNLV: Why The Warriors Can Win, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction

The UNLV Rebels open up Mountain West play against the Hawaii Warriors on Saturday at home. UNLV has started strong this season but has lost the last four out of five Golden Pineapple games.

Execute the quick passing game

Both quarterbacks for the Rebels, Doug Brumfield and Jayden Maiava, do a great job quickly getting the ball out of their hands. Getting the ball out fast does not allow the pass rush to be effective and could serve as an extension to the running game. Look for the Rebels to get the ball into the hands of Ricky White, then with the Go-Go offense.

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Running the ball

Both Vincent Davis Jr. and Jai’Den Thomas have 2011 yards rushing, Thomas with seven rushing touchdowns. The Rebels have run the ball 159 times this season and passed 114 times. Running the ball wears the defense down and keeps the opposing offense off the field. Limiting the opposing team’s possession is always a good thing. The Rebels do an excellent job of converting on third downs with a 52.4 third conversion percentage.

Ability to force turnovers

The Rebels defense has forced nine turnovers so far this season, but they also have given up a lot of big plays this season; they must keep that under wraps Saturday. But their ability to force turnovers can create extra opportunities for their offense. Hawaii will look to pass the ball down the field, so there will be plays to be made for the Rebels’ defense.

Prediction

UNLV has been playing well this season, but Hawaii can put up points if UNLV is not careful. But the Rebels will score points and force a couple of turnovers to take home the Victory.

UNLV 38-21

Hawaii vs. UNLV: Why The Warriors Can Win, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction

The Warriors look to open Mountain West play with a road win over the surging Rebels. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.


Hawaii vs. UNLV: Why The Warriors Can Win, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction


The Warriors look to open Mountain West play with a road win over the surging Rebels. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.


Contact/Follow @MattK_FS and @MWCwire

An unexpectedly crucial conference clash.

WEEK 5: Hawaii Warriors (2-3) vs. UNLV Rebels (3-1)

WHEN: Saturday, September 30 — 10:00 AM HT/1:00 PM PT

WHERE: Allegiant Stadium; Las Vegas, NV

WEATHER: Mostly cloudy and breezy, high of 81 degrees (note: game indoors)

TV: Spectrum Pay-Per-View (Hawaii only) and Silver State Sports and Entertainment Network (southern Nevada only)

STREAMING: For college football fans on the mainland, the game can only be streamed using the Team1Sports application. That is available for download on Android and Apple devices and over-the-top platforms like Roku and Amazon Fire. Please note that the game will not be available on desktops or laptops.

RADIO: The Hawaii broadcast can be found and streamed on ESPN Honolulu or the Sideline Hawaii app, which is available on Google and Apple). The UNLV broadcast can be found on ESPN 1100 AM and 100.9 FM.

SERIES RECORD: Hawaii leads the all-time series, 19-13. In the last meeting on November 19, 2022, the Warriors defeated the Rebels, 31-25, in Honolulu.

LAST GAME: Hawaii defeated New Mexico State at home, 20-17, while UNLV beat UTEP on the road, 48-20.

WEBSITES: HawaiiAthletics.com, the official Hawaii athletics website | UNLVRebels.com, the official UNLV athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Hawaii | UNLV

ODDS: UNLV -11

SP+ PROJECTION: UNLV by 10.3

FEI PROJECTION: UNLV by 10.4

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: UNLV 84.69% win probability (36.36-21.01)

The Hawaii Warriors managed to tally a pair of wins in non-conference play, but now the real work begins with a rivalry showdown against the UNLV Rebels to open Mountain West action.

Though the two teams have been conference mates since 2012, this is the first time the Warriors and Rebels have opened conference play together. It happens to be an important matchup for a few different reasons, as well: UNLV has come on strong to start 2023, rallying to defeat Vanderbilt two weeks ago and putting together a convincing road win over UTEP last Saturday, but they’ve also lost four of the last five in this series.

Can the Warriors hang on to the golden pineapple for another year? Here are the keys to doing just that against the Rebels.

Three Keys to a Hawaii Victory

1. Survive on third downs.

One area where the Rebels have been much more effective than the Warriors to date is in moving the chains on third downs. Through four games, UNLV ranks second among Mountain West offenses with a 52.4% conversion rate and third among conference defenses in allowing a 38.6% rate; by contrast, Hawaii ranks 11th and 10th, respectively (35.6% on offense, 46.9% on defense).

Needless to say, if the Warriors can keep close to even with the Rebels on this front, it could make a huge difference in a potential upset bid. It helps that Timmy Chang hasn’t been shy about staying aggressive in critical situations — Hawaii is also 9-of-15 on offensive fourth downs — but one bit of situational football through which they could seize an advantage is that much of the damage has been done by UNLV’s ground game: Doug Brumfield and Jayden Maiava have combined to generate 17 first downs on 37 third-down throws, though they also have three interceptions.

2. Make the quarterback uncomfortable.

A lot of what has made UNLV successful in the early going is that their passing game appears to be predicated on getting the ball out quickly. According to Pro Football Focus, both Brumfield and Maiava have averaged 2.42 seconds to throw, the second-lowest time among 18 Mountain West quarterbacks with at least 20 dropbacks, but there is also a huge disparity in their pressure-to-sack rate.

Before he got hurt, Brumfield absorbed seven sacks in 54 dropbacks, but Maiava has taken only one sack in 78 dropbacks during his time on the field. While it remains to be seen who will start on Saturday afternoon (they’re listed with an “or” on the week’s two-deep and Brumfield is practicing, per head coach Barry Odom), it will be critical for Jonah Kahahawai-Welch, Ezra Emaivalo, and company to put the UNLV offensive line on its heels early and often to make plays.

3. Generate big plays with the passing game.

After leading the Mountain West in total takeaways last season, UNLV has picked up where it left off with nine more in four games thus far. That isn’t the only trend that has carried over from 2022, though, since the Rebels have allowed 24 passing plays of 20-plus yards after giving up 41 such plays a year ago.

There should be opportunities, then, for Hawaii quarterback Brayden Schager to take some shots if his pass catchers can stretch the field. To date, he’s only generated a 20-yard pass play on 8.2% of his 208 attempts, but UNLV got pushed to the tune of 8.7 yards per attempt in non-conference play despite holding both the Commodores and Miners to a completion rate under 50%.

Prediction

Through five games, it’s safe to say that Hawaii has made incremental progress from Chang’s first year at the helm, but UNLV is a true litmus test for just how much juice this team has to be a real problem in conference play. It wouldn’t surprise to see them put up points against a Rebels defense that has already been pushed, especially through the air, but the difference will be in keeping UNLV from doing the same.

In that respect, this game is likely to play out a lot more like the Stanford and Vanderbilt games than Warriors fans may have. It won’t be a blowout, but expect the Rebels to reclaim the pineapple.

UNLV 38, Hawaii 24

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