Golden State Warriors odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line – Page 2

Golden State Warriors at Milwaukee Bucks odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Golden State Warriors at Milwaukee Bucks and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Golden State Warriors (30-10) visit the Cream City Thursday for a 7:30 p.m. ET game with the Milwaukee Bucks (26-17) at the Fiserv Forum. Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Bucks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Golden State has lost three of its past four games including most recently when the Warriors (-2) lost at the Memphis Grizzlies 116-108 Tuesday.

Over the past two weeks, Golden State is 3-3 straight-up (SU), 2-4 ATS and 3-3 O/U with the 15th-ranked non-garbage time net rating at plus-0.5 and the 25th-ranked spread differential at a minus-3.4 ATS margin, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Milwaukee dropped both of a road back-to-back against the Charlotte Hornets entering Thursday and four of its past five games.

In the last 14 days, the Bucks have the 10th-best non-garbage time net rating at plus-3.0 and the 22nd-ranked spread differential at a minus-2.4 ATS margin, per CTG.

Warriors at Bucks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:15 p.m. ET.

Money line: Warriors +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Bucks -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Warriors +1.5 (-108) | Bucks -1.5 (-112)
Over/Under (O/U): 223.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Warriors at Bucks key injuries

Warriors

PF Draymond Green (calf) out
C James Wiseman (knee) out

Bucks

SG George Hill (health and safety protocols) out
PG Jrue Holiday (ankle) doubtful

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Warriors at Bucks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Bucks 119, Warriors 113

Money line

BET the BUCKS (-125) for 1 unit because Draymond’s absence should loom large for the Warriors (+102) versus Milwaukee’s All-Star wings Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton.

Interestingly enough, Giannis and Stephen Curry‘s primes haven’t crossed paths much over the years. The last time Giannis and Curry played each other was Christmas 2020, and the time before was in Dec. 2018.

However, this could be the worst game for the Warriors to be without Draymond. He’d be tasked with defending Giannis and Middleton. Draymond’s absence leaves a glaring hole in Golden State’s defense.

Furthermore, the Bucks like to run a lot of isolation through Giannis and Middleton. Milwaukee is successful playing iso-ball (fifth in offensive efficiency out of isolation plays) whereas Golden State plays poor defense versus iso-ball (29th in defensive efficiency).

Also, Milwaukee’s backcourt is getting a little healthier. The Bucks are still missing Holiday but guards Pat Connaughton, Grayson Allen and Donte DiVincenzo aren’t listed on Milwaukee’s injury report.

BET 1 unit on the BUCKS (-125).

Against the spread

PASS since Milwaukee’s money line is only 13 cents on the dollar more expensive than the Bucks -1.5 (-112) so there’s no point fussing with the spread.

That said, if Milwaukee’s money line goes north of -140 then I’d lay the points and I like the Bucks up to -4.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the OVER 223.5 (-115) because both teams play at an above-average pace, have a top-seven effective field goal percentage and a top-five 3-point attempt rate. Simply put, there’s a lot of firepower on the floor for both teams.

On top of that, Golden State’s defense is worse without Draymond and Milwaukee’s defense is weakened sans Holiday.

That said, I only “LEAN” to the OVER 223.5 (-115) because oddsmakers have adjusted to both teams’ styles, and these teams actually play more Unders. The Bucks are 18-25 O/U and the Warriors are 13-25-2 O/U.

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Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Golden State Warriors (30-9) travel to FedExForum Tuesday for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off with the Memphis Grizzlies (28-14). Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Grizzlies odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Golden State broke out of a two-game slump by waxing the Cleveland Cavaliers 96-82 as a 6.5-point home favorite in G Klay Thompson‘s return to action following multiple leg injuries over the past two seasons.

The Warriors are 3-3 straight-up (SU), 2-4 ATS and 2-4 O/U in the last 14 days with the 15th-ranked adjusted net rating at plus-0.9 points per 100 possessions, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Memphis is riding a nine-game win streak with the latest being a 127-119 victory against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 3-point road underdog.

The Grizzlies have covered the spread in six of their seven wins over the last two weeks and have the fourth-best adjusted net rating at plus-13.1 points per 100 possessions, per CTG.

These teams are split 1-1 SU and ATS through their first two regular-season meetings. Memphis eliminated Golden State last season in the inaugural postseason play-in tourney with a 117-112 overtime win.

Warriors at Grizzlies odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:40 p.m. ET.

Money line: Warriors -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Grizzlies +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
Against the spread (ATS): Warriors -1.5 (-120) | Grizzlies +1.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 220.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Warriors at Grizzlies key injuries

Warriors

PF Draymond Green (shoulder) out
SG Gary Payton II (ankle) questionable
F Otto Porter Jr. (shoulder) questionable

Grizzlies

C Steven Adams (health and safety protocols) questionable
SG Dillon Brooks (ankle) out

Warriors at Grizzlies odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Grizzlies 114, Warriors 110

Money line

BET the GRIZZLIES (+105) for 1 unit and/or SPRINKLE on their money line and wager more on Memphis’s spread if it gets to 2.5 points or higher.

However, the Grizzlies have been playing some of the best basketball in the Association since the middle of December and has a strength-on-weakness edge with ball security.

Golden State has the second-worst offensive turnover rate and is 19th in points off of turnovers allowed per game.

On the other hand, Memphis has the sixth-best defensive turnover rate and scores the fifth-most points off of turnovers per game.

The Warriors could also be without their third- (Payton II), fourth (Draymond), and fifth-best players (Porter) by adjusted on/off net rating (per CTG) for this game.

BET the GRIZZLIES (+105).

Against the spread

PASS unless Memphis’s spread gets to +2.5 or higher in which case I’d go light on the Grizzlies outright and hit the Grizzlies plus the points harder.

Over/Under

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 220.5 (-112) for a small wager, if at all, because there’s been a sharp line move towards the Over. This meeting’s total opened at 218.5 and has been steamed up 2 points.

That line movement could be solely based on the return of Klay, which makes sense, but is a little too obvious. Typically, in sports betting, the obvious plays aren’t very profitable.

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Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Cleveland Cavaliers (22-17) roll into the Chase Center Sunday to play the Golden State Warriors (29-9) in Klay Thompson‘s first game back since the 2019 NBA Finals after being sidelined with multiple leg injuries. Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Cavaliers vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Cleveland has alternated between winning and losing over the past four games with the latest being a 114-101 victory at the Portland Trail Blazers Friday, easily covering as 6-point road favorites.

In the last 14 days, the Cavs are 3-4 straight-up (SU), 2-4-1 ATS and 4-3 O/U with the 12th-best non-garbage time net rating at plus-4.1 points per 100 possessions, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Golden State has lost back-to-back road games at the Dallas Mavericks 99-82 Wednesday and down several starters at the New Orleans Pelicans 101-96 Thursday.

Over the past two weeks, the Warriors are 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS and 2-3 O/U with the 17th-ranked non-garbage time net rating at minus-1.9 points per 100 possessions, per CTG.

Golden State has won six straight regular-season meetings with Cleveland (5-1 ATS), which includes a 104-89 beatdown earlier this season as 9.5-point road favorites.

Cavaliers at Warriors odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.

Money line: Cavaliers +290 (bet $100 to win $290) | Warriors -380 (bet $380 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Cavaliers +8.5 (-108) | Warriors -8.5 (-112)
Over/Under (O/U): 216.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Cavaliers at Warriors key injuries

Cavaliers

SG Isaac Okoro (elbow) out

Warriors

C James Wiseman (knee) out

Cavaliers at Warriors odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 109, Cavaliers 105

Money line

PASS with a heavy “lean” towards the Cavaliers (+290) because I like Cleveland plus the points, and I really like the fat money line payout.

However, with the return of Klay, we’ll likely see the Warriors (-380) roll past opponents shortly. Obviously, even before Klay’s comeback, Golden State has played like one of the best teams in the NBA.

In fact, the Warriors have the best winning percentage (9-3 SU) and non-garbage time efficiency differential (plus-9.8 points per 100 possessions) versus teams in the top-10 of adjusted net rating (CTG).

Against the spread

BET 1 unit on the CAVALIERS +8.5 (-108) because the oddsmakers are laying a trap for all the Warriors -8.5 (-112) bettors.

According to Pregame.com, Golden State was a 10-point favorite on the look-ahead line, and this number has been steamed down even though more than 85% of the action is on the Warriors. This type of reverse line movement is suspicious, to say the least.

Also, oddsmakers are projecting a low-scoring game as the total is only 216.5. You’d think with the return of Klay that this total would be set somewhere in the low 220s. If sportsbooks are predicting fewer points then it’s hard not taking an 8.5-point underdog in this spot.

Furthermore, I don’t put much stock into Golden State’s double-digit victory over Cleveland earlier this season because the Cavs were missing bigs Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.

Cleveland’s crazy length and interior size allow it to extend the perimeter defense because the Cavs guards know it has awesome rim protection behind them. Allen and Mobley being active for this Cavaliers-Warriors meeting should greatly improve Cleveland’s defense.

For example, the Cavs’ defensive effective field goal percentage is 3.3% better with Mobley on the floor and the Cavs allow 3.0 fewer points per 100 possessions when Allen is out there (CTG).

BET the CAVALIERS +8.5 (-108).

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the UNDER 216.5 (-112) for a half-unit because the Warriors are 6-12-2 O/U as a home favorite, the Cavs are 6-9 O/U as a road underdog, both teams play more to the Under in non-conference games and since there are Under-friendly betting splits.

According to Pregame.com, this is a Pros vs. Joe’s game with more money being on the Under but more action coming in on the Over. Typically, in sports betting, it’s profitable to follow the money when it’s counter to the public.

The reasons I only “LEAN” to the UNDER 216.5 (-112) are that Cleveland’s spread is my favorite wager in this game, and both teams shoot it really well.

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Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Golden State Warriors (29-7) roll into American Airlines Center Wednesday for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off with the Dallas Mavericks (19-18). Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Golden State has won back-to-back games at the Utah Jazz 123-116 on New Year’s Day and versus the Miami Heat 115-108 Monday.

The Warriors are 4-1 straight-up (SU), 3-2 ATS and 4-1 O/U over the past two weeks with the eighth-best adjusted net rating at plus-5.8 points per 100 possessions, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Dallas has won three straight at the Sacramento Kings 112-96 Friday, at the Oklahoma City Thunder 95-88 Sunday and the Denver Nuggets 103-89 Monday.

The Mavs are 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS and 2-5 O/U in the last 14 days with the second-best adjusted net rating at plus-10.2 points per 100 possessions, per CTG.

The Mavs have won six of their last seven meetings with the Warriors and have covered eight of the last 10.

Warriors at Mavericks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.

Money line: Warriors -220 (bet $220 to win $100) | Mavericks +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
Against the spread (ATS): Warriors -5.5 (-110) | Mavericks +5.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 214.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Warriors at Mavericks key injuries

Warriors

SF Andre Iguodala (knee) questionable
SG Klay Thompson (Achilles) out

Mavericks

PG Trey Burke (health and safety protocols) questionable
PF Kristaps Porzingis (health and safety protocols) out
C Boban Marjanovic (health and safety protocols) out

Warriors at Mavericks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 117, Mavericks 114

Money line

PASS with a heavy “lean” towards the Mavericks (+175) since I’m taking the points with Dallas and generally will sprinkle on an underdog’s money line when betting them to cover the spread.

However, it’s tough fading the almighty Warriors, especially because Dallas has been crushed versus quality competition this season.

The Mavs are 1-9 SU against teams in the top-10 of efficiency differential with the 24th-ranked adjusted net rating at minus-9.0 points per 100 possessions and the 20th-ranked ATS margin, per CTG.

Against the spread

BET the MAVERICKS +5.5 (-110) for 1 unit because they’ve performed really well against the Warriors since drafting G Luka Doncic.

As mentioned previously, since 2018-19 (Luka’s rookie season), Dallas is 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS versus Golden State.

Luka is averaging 28.6 points per game on 64.5% true shooting (.485/.451/.753), 7.8 rebounds per game and 7.7 assists per game with a plus-13 net rating in 10-career games versus the Warriors.

The total of Warriors-Mavericks is also suspiciously low, which suggests the oddsmakers think this will be a rock-fight.

This Warriors-Mavericks total (214.5) is 10 points less than the previous four meetings. If the sportsbooks are projecting a lower-scoring affair then that nudges me towards a 5.5-point underdog.

Especially a Mavs team that’s played very well against the Warriors in recent years. Dallas has scored at least 124 points in six of the past seven meetings with Golden State.

BET the MAVERICKS +5.5 (-110).

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the OVER 214.5 (-108) because the total has been steamed up from the 212.5-point opener, which suggests the Over is the sharp play.

More importantly, the Over has cashed in 10 of the last 12 Warriors-Mavericks meetings and Golden State has gone Over the total in five of their last six games.

That said, the reason I only “LEAN” to the OVER 214.5 (-108) is that, again, it’s suspiciously low. It’s almost like Vegas is begging you to take the Over here.

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Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Golden State Warriors (27-7) travel to Salt Lake City Saturday for a 9 p.m. ET game against the Utah Jazz (26-9) at the Vivint Smart Home Arena. Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Jazz odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Golden State had its three-game winning streak snapped Tuesday with an 89-86 loss to the Denver Nuggets. The second of the back-to-back between the Warriors-Nuggets was canceled due to a COVID outbreak within Denver.

Over the past two weeks, the Warriors are 3-2 straight-up (SU), 3-2 ATS, and 3-2 O/U with the 16th-ranked adjusted net rating at minus-0.2 points per 100 possessions, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Utah enters on a six-game winning streak (1-1-4 ATS and 3-3 O/U) with the latest being a 120-108 victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves on New Year’s Eve but failed to cover as 12.5-point home favorites.

The Jazz have the third-best non-garbage time net rating over the past two weeks at plus-8.8 points per 100 possessions (CTG).

Golden State won and covered two of three meetings with Utah last season and the Over cashed in all three Warriors-Jazz games.

Warriors at Jazz odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:50 p.m. ET.

Money line: Warriors +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Jazz -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Warriors +4.5 (-105) | Jazz -4.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 223.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Warriors at Jazz key injuries

Warriors

PF Draymond Green (health and safety protocols) out
SF Damion Lee (health and safety protocols) out

Jazz

SF Joel Ingles (back) probable
PG Mike Conley (rest) probable
C Hassan Whiteside (head) questionable

Warriors at Jazz odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Jazz 117, Warriors 110

Money line

PASS even though I think this is a trap game for the Warriors (+160) because the Jazz (-200) is just too pricey considering how well Golden State has played against the cream of the crop in the NBA.

For instance, the Warriors is 7-2 SU vs. teams in the top-10 of adjusted net rating with by far the best non-garbage time net rating at plus-10.5 points per 100 possessions (CTG). The next closest team (Phoenix Suns) has a plus-3.5 points per 100 possessions adjusted net rating.

Against the spread

BET the JAZZ -4.5 (-120) because there’s a notable line freeze in the betting market and this feels like a trap game for the Warriors +4.5 (-105). First of all, all the situational trends point towards Golden State here.

But, according to Pregame.com and the Yahoo! Sports app, an overwhelming majority of the market is betting Golden State and the line hasn’t budged off the opener.

The JAZZ -4.5 (-120) feels too big in the first place considering the Warriors have the best record in the NBA. But, it feels even fishier because all the money is coming in on Golden State yet this line isn’t moving.

Also, Utah’s non-garbage time net rating is actually 2.2 points per 100 possessions better than Golden State (CTG) and the Jazz are actually better than their record indicates. In fact, Utah ranks 26th in win differential at minus-2.4, meaning the Jazz have two fewer wins than they should.

Between Utah being the best team in the league in non-garbage time net rating and this suspect line movement, it’s JAZZ -4.5 (-120) or pass for me.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the OVER 223.5 (-110) for a half unit because the Over has cashed in seven straight Warriors-Jazz meetings and the Over has cashed in Golden State’s past four games vs. teams with a winning record.

On top of that, Utah is 13-7 O/U as a home favorite and there’s been a sharp line move towards the Over as the Warriors-Jazz total opened at 222.5 and has been steamed up to the current number.

That said, the Jazz laying the points is my favorite wager in this contest.

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Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Golden State Warriors (27-7) play their final game of 2021 Thursday night against the Denver Nuggets (17-16). Tip-off is 9:30 p.m. ET at Ball Arena. Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

This is the second straight game for the Warriors against the Nuggets. They lost to the Nuggets 89-86 Tuesday night at home in their worst offensive output of the season. They were missing F Draymond Green due to COVID protocols. They have won six of their last eight games.

The Nuggets have won two straight games but have lost their last two home games. Nikola Jokic had a big game against the Warriors on Tuesday, scoring 22 points and grabbing 19 rebounds. They have to opportunity to win more than two in a row for just the second time this season.

Warriors at Nuggets odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:40 a.m. ET.

Money line: Warriors -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Nuggets +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
Against the spread (ATS): Warriors -4.5 (-110) | Nuggets +4.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 214.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Warriors at Nuggets key injuries

Warriors

F Draymond Green (health and safety protocols) out
G Damion Lee (health and safety protocols) out
G Klay Thompson (Achilles) out
C James Wiseman (knee, health and safety protocols) out

Nuggets

F Vlatko Cancar (illness) questionable
G P.J. Dozier (knee) out
F Aaron Gordon (hamstring) questionable
G Monte Morris (knee) questionable
G Jamal Murray (knee) out
F Michael Porter Jr. (back) out
G Austin Rivers (thumb) questionable

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Warriors at Nuggets odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 108, Nuggets 101

Money line

The Warriors have not lost consecutive games all season.

The Nuggets have not won more than two games in a row except for a five-game winning streak from Nov. 6-14. However, Golden State is at a disadvantage with the matchup against Jokic.

Take the WARRIORS (-190).

Against the spread

The loss on Tuesday snapped a three-game cover streak for the Warriors. They are 21-11-2 ATS, the second-best ATS record in the league.

The win and cover over the Warriors ended a four-game streak of failing to cover the spread for Denver. The Nuggets are 14-19 ATS and 6-8 ATS at home this season.

Take the WARRIORS -4.5 (-110).

Over/Under

The last four games for the Nuggets have stayed Under the projected total. Opponents have scored 102.3 points per game in that stretch. They are averaging only 98.3 points per game in their last four.

The 86 points the Warriors scored on Tuesday were the fewest all season, although it was the third time in nine games they were held to 100 or fewer points. Before Tuesday’s game, they had scored 113 or more in three straight games.

Take UNDER 212.5 (-107).

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Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The top two teams in the West meet Christmas day when the Phoenix Suns (26-5) host the Golden State Warriors (26-6) at the Footprint Center. The tip-off is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Suns odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Golden State has won back-to-back games entering Saturday over the Sacramento Kings 113-98 Monday and the Memphis Grizzlies 113-104 Thursday.

The Warriors are 5-2 straight-up (SU), 3-3-1 ATS and 3-4 O/U with the 14th-ranked non-garbage time net rating (minus-0.1 points per 100 possessions), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Phoenix is on a five-game winning streak with the latest being a 113-101 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder Thursday but failed to cover as 15-point home favorites.

The Suns are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS and 3-3-1 O/U in the last 14 days with the second-best non-garbage time net rating (plus-15.2 points per 100 possessions), per CTG.

These teams split the first two meetings of the season with the home team winning and covering both games and the Under is 2-0 in those contests. However, Golden State was at full strength for both meetings.

Warriors at Suns odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 8:15 p.m. ET.

Money line: Warriors +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Suns -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Warriors +5.5 (-105) | Suns -5.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 215.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Warriors at Suns key injuries

Warriors

SF Andre Iguodala (knee) questionable
SG Jordan Poole (health and safety protocols) out
SF Andrew Wiggins (health and safety protocols) out
SF Damion Lee (health and safety protocols) questionable
SG Klay Thompson (Achilles’) out

Suns

None.

Warriors at Suns odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Suns 112, Warriors 104

Money line

PASS despite Phoenix being the right side because the Suns (-240) is too expensive in this spot. I’m laying the points with Phoenix but wouldn’t be shocked if Stephen Curry erupted on Christmas even though Chris Paul is one of the better defenders of Curry in the Association (more on that below).

Against the spread

The elephant in the room here is the absence of Golden State’s second-and third-leading scorers in Poole and Wiggins.

Also, Phoenix All-Star guard Devin Booker exited the first Warriors-Suns meeting in the second quarter with a hamstring injury that kept him sidelined for seven games. This was a major reason why Golden State beat the brakes off Phoenix in the second meeting just three days later.

Furthermore, as previously mentioned, CP3 has always made life difficult for Curry. In fact, Curry has scored less than 30 points in 11 straight games vs. CP3 and Paul holds a slight career-scoring edge over Curry in their 34 career head-to-head games at 21.1-20.9 points per game.

Finally, Golden State tends to be careless with the rock: Ranking 29th in offensive turnover rate and 21st in points off of turnovers allowed per game. Whereas Phoenix is ball hounds: Ranking eighth in defensive turnover rate and seventh in points off of turnovers scored per game.

The bottom line is the SUNS -5.5 (-120) will be able to dictate the pace and get into their offense easier than the Warriors +5.5 (-105) because of their edge in the ball security department.

BET the SUNS -5.5 (-120) for 1 unit.

Over/Under

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 217.5 (-108) since these teams are ranked first (Golden State) and second (Phoenix) in defensive rating and the Under has cashed four of their last five meetings.

However, both teams play at a top-10 pace, and both certainly have the offensive efficiency to push this game Over the total.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and, soon, IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Memphis Grizzlies (19-13) meet the Golden State Warriors (25-6) Thursday at the Chase Center for a 10 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Grizzlies vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Memphis has lost back-to-back games to the Portland Trail Blazers 105-100 Sunday and to the Oklahoma City Thunder 102-99 Monday.

Over the past two weeks, the Grizzlies are 5-3 straight-up (SU), 4-4 ATS and 3-5 O/U with the fifth-best non-garbage time net rating (plus-8.4 points per 100 possessions), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Golden State has won four of its past five games including the most recent, 113-98, over the Sacramento Kings Monday, barely covering as 13.5-point home favorites.

The Warriors are 5-2 SU, 2-4-1 ATS and 2-5 O/U with the 13th-ranked non-garbage time net rating (even 0.0 points per 100 possessions), per CTG.

The Grizzlies beat the Warriors in their first meeting of the season, Oct. 28, 104-101 in overtime as 6-point road underdogs.

Grizzlies at Warriors odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:10 p.m. ET.

Money line: Grizzlies +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Warriors -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Grizzlies +5.5 (-110) | Warriors -5.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 217.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Grizzlies at Warriors key injuries

Grizzlies

PG Tyus Jones (finger) questionable
PF Brandon Clarke (knee) out

Warriors

SG Jordan Poole (health and safety protocols) out
SF Andrew Wiggins (health and safety protocols) out
SF Andre Iguodala (knee) questionable
SF Jonathan Kuminga (back) questionable

Grizzlies at Warriors odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 108, Grizzlies 105

Money line

PASS on the money line with a slight “lean” to the Grizzlies +180.

Memphis beat Golden State in the Bay Area earlier this season, handing the Warriors their first loss. Memphis matches up well with Golden State and should compete with them.

Against the spread

BET on the GRIZZLIES +5.5 (-110) as a great value bet. The Warriors are down their second- and third-best scoring threat.

The player that typically slides into the starting lineup for Poole is out as well. The Dubs are short-handed and should struggle against an athletic Grizzlies.

Memphis ranks 8th in turnover rate and second in offensive rebounding. That’s a recipe for success, and it has worked against Golden State already this season.

I’d bank on this being a close game.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the UNDER 217.5 (-108) as the Warriors are just missing too many key players.

They’ll likely put Moses Moody or Gary Payton II into the starting lineup along with Otto Porter Jr. Those are a few defensive-minded players that will only marginally contribute offensively.

With Morant having struggled since his return on the other side, I’ll take the fewer points as neither team turns the rock over. The Warriors top-of-the-league defense should also be a factor that helps bolster the Under.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and, soon, IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow @nathanbeighle_ on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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Golden State Warriors at Indiana Pacers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Golden State Warriors at Indiana Pacers odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Golden State Warriors (21-5) cruise over to Gainbridge Fieldhouse Monday for a 7 p.m. ET game against the Indiana Pacers (12-16). Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Pacers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Golden State has split its last six games 3-3 overall (2-4 ATS) with the latest being a 102-93 loss at the Philadelphia 76ers Saturday. The Warriors are 17-8-1 ATS and 7-18-1 O/U on the season with the second-best non-garbage time efficiency differential according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CtG).

Indiana has three straight wins over the Washington Wizards, New York Knicks and Dallas Mavericks entering Monday (2-0-1 ATS). The Pacers are 14-13-1 ATS and 13-15 O/U with the ninth-best non-garbage time efficiency differential (CtG).

These two sides both won and covered one game against each other last season and the Under was 2-0 in those games.

Warriors at Pacers odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.

Money line: Warriors -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Pacers +133 (bet $100 to win $133)
Against the spread (ATS): Warriors -3.5 (-112) | Pacers +3.5 (-108)
Over/Under (O/U): 214.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Warriors at Pacers key injuries

Warriors

SF Andre Iguodala (rest) out

Pacers

SF Justin Holiday (health and safety protocols) questionable

Warriors at Pacers odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 107, Pacers 104

Money line

PASS because I’m not confident enough in Indiana getting points to sprinkle on the Pacers (+133). I’d need Indiana’s money line to be priced around +190 to take a shot at it.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to the PACERS +3.5 (-108) because this line feels suspiciously low considering the difference between these two teams’ records. However, the oddsmakers understand that Indiana is better than its record indicates.

The Pacers’ minus-4.6 win differential is the worst in the NBA and Indiana’s in the top-10 of net efficiency despite its losing record. The Pacers are also 10-5 ATS against teams with a winning record and have been playing better recently.

Indiana is plus-6.6 points per 100 possessions over the last two weeks (ranked sixth) while Golden State is plus-3.8 points per 100 possessions (ranked 10th), per CtG.

This Pacers roster is familiar with and has played well against these Warriors. Indiana beat Golden State last season and the Pacers’ loss in the other game ended in a four-point final scoring margin, and both Steph Curry and Draymond Green played in Indiana’s victory against Golden State last season.

Over/Under

BET the UNDER 214.5 (-115) because the Warriors are 2-8 O/U on the road, the Pacers are 2-9 O/U with a minus-16.6 margin on the total as an underdog and the Under has cashed in three of the past four Warriors-Pacers meetings.

In addition, the Warriors have struggled offensively recently: Golden State is 24th in points per 100 possessions scored in competitive times over the past two weeks.

For what it’s worth, the UNDER 214.5 (-115) is my favorite wager in the Warriors-Pacers meeting.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Golden State Warriors (20-4) host the Portland Trail Blazers (11-14) Wednesday at Chase Center for a 10 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Trail Blazers vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Portland has lost six of its past seven games including three straight to the San Antonio Spurs, Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Clippers. The Trail Blazers are 9-15-1 ATS and 12-13 O/U with the 18th-best net rating.

Golden State has alternated wins and losses the past five games (3-2 ATS) with the latest being a 126-95 beatdown of the Orlando Magic Monday. The Warriors are 17-6-1 ATS and 7-16-1 O/U with the best net rating in the NBA.

The Warriors crushed the Trail Blazers 118-103 Nov. 26 in their first head-to-head meeting of the season. Golden State is 4-1 overall and 3-2 ATS in its last five home games vs. Portland.

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA December 8 breakdown

Trail Blazers at Warriors odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:10 p.m. ET.

Money line: Trail Blazers +750 (bet $100 to win $750) | Warriors -1400 (bet $1,400 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Trail Blazers +14.5 (-115) | Warriors -14.5 (-107)
Over/Under (O/U): 215.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Trail Blazers at Warriors key injuries

Trail Blazers

PG Damian Lillard (abdomen) out
SF Nassir Little (ankle) questionable
SG C.J. McCollum (lung) out
SG Ben McLemore (hip) questionable
PG Anfernee Simons (ankle) questionable
C Cody Zeller (quad) questionable

Warriors

None

Trail Blazers at Warriors odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 114, Trail Blazers 96

Money line

PASS because I’d never lay -1400 with any NBA regular-season favorite even as one as profitable as Golden State.

All of Golden State’s perceived edges in this matchup are appropriately baked into the Warriors’ price point (-1400). If anything, there’s value on the Trail Blazers (+750) inexplicably stealing this game outright.

But the Warriors will probably drub the Trail Blazers, so PASS.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to the WARRIORS -14.5 (-107) for a tiny wager if at all because a lot of things have to go right for an NBA team to cover as a double-digit favorite. If a massive favorite has just one off-shooting quarter then that ticket could go in the trash.

You could make a better argument that more things would have to go wrong for Golden State to not cover this spread. Portland’s injuries are mounting and it would take a no-show from the Warriors for them to get inside the number.

Aside from a career performance out of big Portland C Jusuf Nurkic, I don’t see an area for the Trail Blazers to attack the Warriors.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the UNDER 215.5 (-110) for a half unit as my favorite wager in this game.

Portland only scored 103 points in its first game vs. Golden State and that was with both Lillard and McCollum in the starting five. As previously discussed, without these guys in the lineup, it’s hard to see how the Trail Blazers score against a Warriors defense ranked first in defensive rating.

The Trail Blazers have the second-worst offensive efficiency on the road, according to CleaningTheGlass.com. Typically, role players shoot better at home, but since the Trail Blazers are starting backups and are on the road, I don’t see them getting hot from the field.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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