The Golden State Warriors (29-7) roll into American Airlines Center Wednesday for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off with the Dallas Mavericks (19-18). Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Golden State has won back-to-back games at the Utah Jazz 123-116 on New Year’s Day and versus the Miami Heat 115-108 Monday.
The Warriors are 4-1 straight-up (SU), 3-2 ATS and 4-1 O/U over the past two weeks with the eighth-best adjusted net rating at plus-5.8 points per 100 possessions, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Dallas has won three straight at the Sacramento Kings 112-96 Friday, at the Oklahoma City Thunder 95-88 Sunday and the Denver Nuggets 103-89 Monday.
The Mavs are 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS and 2-5 O/U in the last 14 days with the second-best adjusted net rating at plus-10.2 points per 100 possessions, per CTG.
The Mavs have won six of their last seven meetings with the Warriors and have covered eight of the last 10.
Warriors at Mavericks odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Warriors -220 (bet $220 to win $100) | Mavericks +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
- Against the spread (ATS): Warriors -5.5 (-110) | Mavericks +5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 214.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Warriors at Mavericks key injuries
Warriors
- SF Andre Iguodala (knee) questionable
- SG Klay Thompson (Achilles) out
Mavericks
- PG Trey Burke (health and safety protocols) questionable
- PF Kristaps Porzingis (health and safety protocols) out
- C Boban Marjanovic (health and safety protocols) out
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Warriors at Mavericks odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Warriors 117, Mavericks 114
Money line
PASS with a heavy “lean” towards the Mavericks (+175) since I’m taking the points with Dallas and generally will sprinkle on an underdog’s money line when betting them to cover the spread.
However, it’s tough fading the almighty Warriors, especially because Dallas has been crushed versus quality competition this season.
The Mavs are 1-9 SU against teams in the top-10 of efficiency differential with the 24th-ranked adjusted net rating at minus-9.0 points per 100 possessions and the 20th-ranked ATS margin, per CTG.
Against the spread
BET the MAVERICKS +5.5 (-110) for 1 unit because they’ve performed really well against the Warriors since drafting G Luka Doncic.
As mentioned previously, since 2018-19 (Luka’s rookie season), Dallas is 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS versus Golden State.
Luka is averaging 28.6 points per game on 64.5% true shooting (.485/.451/.753), 7.8 rebounds per game and 7.7 assists per game with a plus-13 net rating in 10-career games versus the Warriors.
The total of Warriors-Mavericks is also suspiciously low, which suggests the oddsmakers think this will be a rock-fight.
This Warriors-Mavericks total (214.5) is 10 points less than the previous four meetings. If the sportsbooks are projecting a lower-scoring affair then that nudges me towards a 5.5-point underdog.
Especially a Mavs team that’s played very well against the Warriors in recent years. Dallas has scored at least 124 points in six of the past seven meetings with Golden State.
BET the MAVERICKS +5.5 (-110).
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the OVER 214.5 (-108) because the total has been steamed up from the 212.5-point opener, which suggests the Over is the sharp play.
More importantly, the Over has cashed in 10 of the last 12 Warriors-Mavericks meetings and Golden State has gone Over the total in five of their last six games.
That said, the reason I only “LEAN” to the OVER 214.5 (-108) is that, again, it’s suspiciously low. It’s almost like Vegas is begging you to take the Over here.
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