Warriors Nuggets odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Golden State Warriors (41-37) battle the Denver Nuggets (51-26) Sunday. Tip from Ball Arena is set for 8:30 p.m. ET (NBA TV). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Warriors vs. Nuggets odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Warriors beat the San Antonio Spurs 130-115 Friday, failing to cover as an 18-point home favorite. Golden State is 5-1 straight up in its last 6 games and 3-3 against the spread (ATS). It is 36-40-2 ATS on the season.

The Nuggets are 4-2 straight up over their last 6, coming off a 100-93 road loss to Phoenix Friday in which they covered as a 13-point underdog. Denver is 4-2 ATS in the ant 6 and 42-35 ATS on the season.

Denver is 2-0 straight up and 2-0 ATS against the Warriors this season, winning 128-123 at Golden State on Oct. 21 and 134-117 at home on Feb. 2.

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Warriors at Nuggets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:54 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Warriors +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Nuggets -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Warriors +2.5 (-110) | Nuggets -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 234.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Warriors at Nuggets key injuries

Warriors

F Andrew Wiggins (personal) out

Nuggets

C Nikola Jokic (calf) questionable
G Jamal Murray (knee) probable
F Michael Porter Jr. (heel) probable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Warriors at Nuggets picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 118, Nuggets 114

Moneyline

PASS.

This game should be highly competitive, and with the Warriors winning 5 of their last 6, playing them to win outright at (+115) has value, but I would rather take them on the spread.

Against the spread

LEAN WARRIORS +2.5 (-115).

The Warriors have alternated between covering and not covering over their last 7 games, and they are primed to cover. Golden State has won 5 of its last 6 games, 3 of which were by double figures.

The Nuggets are just 1-2 ATS in their last 3, and the potential MVP, Jokic, is questionable as well and may not be 100%. The Nuggets are also just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.

Given the injuries with the Nuggets and the Golden State in more of a desperation position as the season winds down, back the WARRIORS +2.5 (-110).

Over/Under

BET UNDER 234.5 (-110).

The Warriors are 1-3 O/U in their last 4 and 2-4 O/U in their last 6. While the Warriors play at a breakneck pace, they have scored 120 or fewer in 3 of their last 4 games. The Warriors also rank 9th in defensive rating since the All-Star break, so they are starting to put in the effort at the right time.

The Nuggets have gone Under in 8 straight games and have failed to top even 93 in 2 straight games. They are 35-41-1 O/U on the season and 17-21-1 O/U at home this season.

Considering it all, take the UNDER 234.5 (-110).

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Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets Game 4 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets Game 4 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 6 seed Denver Nuggets (0-3) try to keep their season alive when they host the No. 3 seed Golden State Warriors (3-0) Sunday. Tip-off at Ball Arena is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Golden State beat Denver 118-113 in Game 3 Thursday, covering as a 2.5-point road favorite and the Over cashed on a 223-point total.

The Nuggets gave an all-in effort, nearly tripling the Warriors in rebounding rate and outperforming Golden State in three of the “four factors.” Denver big, and MVP finalist, Nikola Jokic scored a game-high 37 points on 63.6% shooting with 18 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 steals.

However, the Warriors sunk seven more 3-pointers than the Nuggets and outshot Denver 67.6-56.9% in effective field goal rate (eFG%).

Warriors at Nuggets odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:25 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Warriors -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Nuggets +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
Against the spread: Warriors -4.5 (-112) | Nuggets +4.5 (-108)
Over/Under: 224.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Warriors at Nuggets key injuries

Warriors

None

Nuggets

PG Jamal Murray (knee) out
PF Michael Porter Jr. (back) out

[tipico]

Warriors at Nuggets picks and predictions

Prediction

Nuggets 116, Warriors 112

Money line

PASS with a “lean” towards the Nuggets (+155) since I’m on Denver plus the points and generally will sprinkle on an underdog’s ML when betting their spread.

However, the Warriors are outperforming the Nuggets in three of the “four factors” and are scoring 14.4 more points per 100 possessions in this series.

Denver has no answer for Golden State’s 3-guard lineup with Steph Curry, Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson, all of which are shooting at least 50.0% from the field and 44.0% from behind the arc.

Despite how bleak things look for the Nuggets, they can stave off elimination if the Warriors have an off-shooting night and Denver’s role players step up and help out Jokic. But, I wouldn’t bet on it.

PASS.

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Against the spread

LEAN NUGGETS +4.5 (-108) mostly because roughly two-thirds of the public is betting the Warriors.

The more bet team in Saturday’s playoff games according to pregame.com were 1-3 ATS and the contrarian mindset is typically profitable in sports betting.

Basketball is about accumulating possessions and the desperation of preventing a sweep will help Denver gain more possessions than Golden State. The Nuggets already have an edge in rebounding but the Warriors also had the second-worst offensive turnover rate in the regular season.

The NUGGETS PLUS THE POINTS is my favorite wager in this game.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 224.5 (-112) because both offenses match up well with their opponents’ defense. Denver’s perimeter defense stands no chance against the Warriors who are second in 3-point attempt rate, fourth in free-throw attempt rate and the best true shooting percentage in the playoffs.

If the Nuggets can continue their dominance on the glass then Denver can convert offensive rebounds into easy second-chance points. Also, the Nuggets were first in eFG% during the regular season.

However, it’s only a LEAN to the OVER 224.5 (-112) because most of the market we’ll probably be taking the Over and I hate following the herd.

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Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets Game 3 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets Game 3 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 6 seed Denver Nuggets (0-2) host the No. 3 seed Golden State Warriors (2-0) Thursday for Game 3 at Ball Arena for their Western Conference first-round playoff series. Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Golden State crushed Denver 126-106 Monday in Game 2 due in large part to the Warriors outscoring the Nuggets 44-30 in the third quarter. Golden State also outshot Denver 54.8-42.5% from the field and committed 7 fewer turnovers.

The Warriors have covered four straight meetings with the Nuggets and are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five visits to Denver.

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA April 21 playoff breakdown

Warriors at Nuggets odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Warriors -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Nuggets +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
Against the spread: Warriors -2.5 (-110) | Nuggets +2.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 222.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Warriors at Nuggets key injuries

Warriors

SF Andre Iguodala (neck) probable

Nuggets

PG Jamal Murray (knee) out
PF Michael Porter Jr. (back) out

[tipico]

Warriors at Nuggets picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 112, Nuggets 108

Money line

I only LEAN WARRIORS (-140) because I expect a Herculean effort from MVP finalist, and reigning MVP, Nikola Jokic.

I don’t think the Joker lets the Nuggets get swept so I wouldn’t put a big bet on the Warriors. However, Denver looks overwhelmed and Nuggets teammates were bickering with one another during Golden State’s second-half run in Game 2.

Warriors SG Jordan Poole‘s emergence as a legit playoff-scoring option has made Golden State’s backcourt edge over Denver insurmountable.

Perhaps the high altitude of Denver and/or an all-in effort from the Nuggets propels them past Golden State in Game 3. However, it feels like the WARRIORS (-140) are going to sweep the Nuggets.

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Against the spread

PASS because Golden State’s ML is a fair price that’s preferable over the Warriors -2.5 (-110).

I could see Game 3 of this series playing out similar to Wednesday’s 76ers-Raptors meeting, which was decided by a game-winning 3-pointer from C Joel Embiid with less than a second remaining in overtime.

Granted, 76ers-Raptors ended with a 3-point margin but I’d rather take Golden State’s ML than sweat the Warriors -2.5 (-110) covering the spread.

Over/Under

Against all logic, BET the UNDER 222.5 (-107) fading the market and following the reverse line movement (RLM).

Most of the cash is on the Over but the Warriors-Nuggets total has been lowered from a 226-point look-ahead down to the current number according to Pregame.com.

This RLM is even more notable when you consider how Denver’s defense has zero answers for Golden State’s offense and the Nuggets’ role players should play better now that the series is on their home floor. But, the oddsmakers have baked this logic into the line.

Since we want to be on the same side as the House, which is trying to induce more Over action, the UNDER 222.5 (-107) appears to be the sharp side of the total.

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Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 6 seed Denver Nuggets visit the Chase Center Saturday to take on the 3rd-seeded Golden State Warriors. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Nuggets vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

The Warriors ended their season on a 5-game win streak, but they still struggled down the stretch as two-time MVP PG Stephen Curry hasn’t played since spraining his foot in a home loss to Boston March 16.

Golden State has been terrific as a home favorite this season, posting a 20-16-2 against the spread (ATS) record. It is 29-9 straight up as a home favorite but just 1-3 against Denver this season.

The Warriors played all 4 of those games without 4-time All-Star PF Draymond Green. As for the Nuggets, they were down star PG Jamal Murray the entire season and SF Michael Porter Jr. the bulk of the season.

Denver is led by reigning MVP C Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets are 12-9 ATS as road underdogs this season. They have the league’s No. 1 effective field-goal percentage.

Nuggets at Warriors odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:33 a.m. ET.

Money line: Nuggets +210 (bet $100 to win $210) | Warriors -270 (bet $270 to win $100)
Against the spread: Nuggets +6.5 (-115) | Warriors -6.5 (-107)
Over/Under (O/U): 222.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Nuggets at Warriors key injuries

Nuggets

PG Jamal Murray (knee) out
SF Michael Porter Jr. (back) out

Warriors

G Stephen Curry (foot) probable

[tipico]

Nuggets at Warriors picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 114, Nuggets 111

Money line

PASS.

With Curry on a minutes restriction and potentially not 100%, I would not consider more than two and a half times a potential return for the Warriors (-270) to win. Denver has value at +210, but I’d rather play the spread, taking the points.

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Against the spread

BET NUGGETS +6.5 (-115).

This is entirely too many points for the Nuggets. I pegged them as about 4-point underdogs, especially considering Curry may not be 100%.

Jokic has once again been the best player in the NBA, and he’s difficult to deal with. His incredible vision is why the Nuggets sit atop the league in true-shooting percentage.

Similarly, while the Warriors may be able to get back to their league-best defense, since the All-Star break, they rank 8th in defensive rating. It won’t be easy to get to that level in one game, especially with a rotation that will still be searching for its identity.

Also, the Nuggets rank 6th in points in the paint behind Jokic and C DeMarcus Cousins, who stands 6-foot-10 and weighs 270 pounds. The Warriors do not start a player over 6-foot-9.

I fully expect the Warriors to win the series, but getting everything back to their championship level may be difficult in this first game. Even if they win, 6.5 points are too many.

Over/Under

LEAN to the OVER 222.5 (-115).

The O/U is 2-2 the 4 times these teams met this season.

With the Nuggets ranking 12th in pace since the All-Star break and the Warriors defense having fallen off a cliff in the second half of the season, I expect a high-scoring affair.

The Nuggets have gone Over in 4 of their last 6. The Warriors are 2-1 O/U in their last 3. On the season, the teams are respectively 44-36-2 O/U and 35-45-2 O/U.

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Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Golden State Warriors (44-22) travel to the Mile High City Thursday to play the Denver Nuggets (40-26). Tip-off at the Ball Arena is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Golden State snapped its 5-game losing skid — 1-4 against the spread (ATS) — by beating the Los Angeles Clippers 112-97 at home Tuesday, covering as 6-point favorites.

Denver has won seven of eight since the All-Star break (4-4 ATS) with the most recent being a 106-100 victory over the Kings last night (Wednesday) in Sacramento but failed to cover as 6.5-point road favorites.

The Nuggets are 3-0 straight up (SU) and 2-1 ATS versus the Warriors this season and Denver big Nikola Jokic has been dominant in those meetings. Jokic is averaging 29.7 points on 55.0% shooting with 17.0 rebounds, 8.7 assists and a plus-11 net rating in three games against Golden State.

Warriors at Nuggets odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:05 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Warriors -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Nuggets +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
Against the spread: Warriors -2.5 (-107) | Nuggets +2.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 227.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Warriors at Nuggets key injuries

Warriors

PF Draymond Green (back) out
SG Gary Payton (knee) out
PF Otto Porter Jr. (illness) out

Nuggets (not yet submitted)

SG Will Barton (ankle) questionable
PF Jeff Green (personal reasons) questionable
PG Bones Hyland (knee) questionable
PG Jamal Murray (knee) out
PF Michael Porter Jr. (back) out

[tipico]

Warriors at Nuggets odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Nuggets 116, Warriors 112

Money line

LEAN to the NUGGETS (+110) only because Denver’s spread is a sharper wager. The Nuggets are trending up and the Warriors (-135) haven’t been the same team since Draymond Green was sidelined Jan. 11 with a back injury.

Golden State is third in adjusted defensive rating for the season but since Green went out of the lineup, the Warriors are 16th in adjusted defensive rating, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Furthermore, Golden State’s defensive field goal percentage at the rim ranks 27th and 21st versus mid-range attempts, per CTG.

Also, Jokic’s worst performance against Golden State this season was the only Warriors-Nuggets meeting Draymond appeared in.

Perhaps SPRINKLE on the NUGGETS (+110) but Denver’s spread is the better player.

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Against the spread

Definitely BET the NUGGETS +2.5 (-115) instead of or heavier than their ML.

But, Jokic’s dominance over the Warriors is the biggest basketball factor in this matchup and there’s some reverse line movement headed towards Denver.

According to VegasInsider.com, nearly three-fourths of the money is on Golden State but the line has been lowered from the Warriors laying 3.5 points on the opener. It’s a red flag whenever sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.

The NUGGETS PLUS THE POINTS is my favorite wager in this game.

Over/Under

PASS.

My numbers align too closely to the predicted total hence there’s no value in me betting this line. If anything I’d “lean” to the Over 227.5 (-112) but we are getting the worst of the number since the Nuggets-Warriors opened with a 224-point total.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Golden State Warriors (43-21) head to the Mile High City Monday to play the Denver Nuggets (38-26). Tip-off at Ball Arena is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Golden State has lost four consecutive games and gone 0-4 against the spread (ATS), with the latest being a 124-116 loss to the Lakers Saturday in L.A. as a 6-point road favorite.

The Warriors are now tied for the second-best record in the Western Conference with the Memphis Grizzlies, 8 games behind the first-place Phoenix Suns.

Denver beat the New Orleans Pelicans 138-130 in overtime at home Sunday, covering as a 3.5-point favorite.

The Nuggets are 5-1 straight up (SU) and 4-2 ATS since the All-Star break and the current 6-seed in the West.

Denver is 2-0 SU and ATS versus Golden State this season and the total is 1-1 Over/Under (O/U).

Warriors at Nuggets odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:21 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Warriors +290 (bet $100 to win $290) | Nuggets -380 (bet $380 to win $100)
Against the spread: Warriors +7.5 (-107) | Nuggets -7.5 (-115)
Over/Under: 221.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Warriors at Nuggets key injuries

Warriors

PG Steph Curry (hand) out
PF Draymond Green (back) out
SF Andre Iguodala (back) out
SG Klay Thompson (injury management) out
SF Andrew Wiggins (foot) out

Nuggets (not officially submitted)

PG Jamal Murray (knee) out
F Michael Porter Jr. (back) out

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Warriors at Nuggets odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Nuggets 118, Warriors 107

Money line

PASS because there’s no way I’d lay it with the Nuggets (-380) or with any team at this price.

Also, I wouldn’t be shocked if Denver sat reigning MVP Nikola Jokic on the second of its back-to-back after his incredible overtime performance Sunday.

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Against the spread

“LEAN” to the NUGGETS -7.5 (-115) because the Warriors will be missing their championship core as well as Wiggins who started in this year’s All-Star game.

Denver is only 2.5 games ahead of the seventh-place Minnesota Timberwolves and seeds 7-10 compete in the postseason play-in tournament. Jokic should be out there and these teams are trending in opposite directions since the All-Star break.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the OVER 221.5 (-108) for a three-fourths unit since this should be the least popular wager in this game and typically that’s where you find value in sports betting. More than 80% of the cash is on the Under (according to Pregame.com).

Golden State has the third-worst defensive rating in the NBA over the past four games and the officiating crew assigned to this game has a combined 86-64 O/U record.

I hesitate to put a full unit on the OVER 221.5 (-108) since the Warriors are missing a ton of firepower.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Golden State Warriors (27-7) play their final game of 2021 Thursday night against the Denver Nuggets (17-16). Tip-off is 9:30 p.m. ET at Ball Arena. Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

This is the second straight game for the Warriors against the Nuggets. They lost to the Nuggets 89-86 Tuesday night at home in their worst offensive output of the season. They were missing F Draymond Green due to COVID protocols. They have won six of their last eight games.

The Nuggets have won two straight games but have lost their last two home games. Nikola Jokic had a big game against the Warriors on Tuesday, scoring 22 points and grabbing 19 rebounds. They have to opportunity to win more than two in a row for just the second time this season.

Warriors at Nuggets odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:40 a.m. ET.

Money line: Warriors -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Nuggets +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
Against the spread (ATS): Warriors -4.5 (-110) | Nuggets +4.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 214.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Warriors at Nuggets key injuries

Warriors

F Draymond Green (health and safety protocols) out
G Damion Lee (health and safety protocols) out
G Klay Thompson (Achilles) out
C James Wiseman (knee, health and safety protocols) out

Nuggets

F Vlatko Cancar (illness) questionable
G P.J. Dozier (knee) out
F Aaron Gordon (hamstring) questionable
G Monte Morris (knee) questionable
G Jamal Murray (knee) out
F Michael Porter Jr. (back) out
G Austin Rivers (thumb) questionable

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Warriors at Nuggets odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 108, Nuggets 101

Money line

The Warriors have not lost consecutive games all season.

The Nuggets have not won more than two games in a row except for a five-game winning streak from Nov. 6-14. However, Golden State is at a disadvantage with the matchup against Jokic.

Take the WARRIORS (-190).

Against the spread

The loss on Tuesday snapped a three-game cover streak for the Warriors. They are 21-11-2 ATS, the second-best ATS record in the league.

The win and cover over the Warriors ended a four-game streak of failing to cover the spread for Denver. The Nuggets are 14-19 ATS and 6-8 ATS at home this season.

Take the WARRIORS -4.5 (-110).

Over/Under

The last four games for the Nuggets have stayed Under the projected total. Opponents have scored 102.3 points per game in that stretch. They are averaging only 98.3 points per game in their last four.

The 86 points the Warriors scored on Tuesday were the fewest all season, although it was the third time in nine games they were held to 100 or fewer points. Before Tuesday’s game, they had scored 113 or more in three straight games.

Take UNDER 212.5 (-107).

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