There were a lot of questions when the Panthers drafted defensive tackle Vernon Butler Jr. in the 2016 draft to back up starters Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short.
There were a lot of questions when the Panthers drafted defensive tackle Vernon Butler Jr. in the 2016 draft to back up starters Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short – and even more three years later when he had zero starts and only two sacks in his first 38 games. When the team declined to pick up his fifth-year option and signed standout veteran Gerald McCoy to play at the same position – now 3-4 defensive end – some wondered if Butler would even make the roster in his fourth year.
Butler made the team of course and after being forced to play due to Kawann Short and Dontari Poe both being on injured reserve, Butler was thrust into the starting lineup, and so far he’s excelled, posting career numbers with five sacks and 25 total tackles. And with the late-bloomer finally having a breakout season, it’s worth considering keeping him around for the long run. It’s not an easy call, though.
The Market
There are few players in Butler’s unique position to compare him to, as a fourth-year first-round pick finally breaking out at a new position in a new scheme. But a glance around the NFL gives us a list of players that his agents will likely use as comparisons, such as Green Bay’s Dean Lowry or Tampa Bay’s William Gholston.
Gholston, who is three years older than Butler, was picked in the fourth round of the 2013 draft by the Buccaneers. Out of 100 games he has started 55 of them, according to Pro Football Reference. In march of 2017 he signed a five year, $27.5 million contract to remain with the team, and at that point he had accumulated 188 total tackles, 29 for a loss, 10 sacks and two forced fumbles. In the 42 games since signing his contract, he’s posted 75 total tackles and two sacks. His contract makes him the 18th highest paid 3-4 defensive end, according to Over the Cap.
Lowry, who was selected in the fourth round of the 2016 draft, is a fifth-year player who signed a three year $20.3 million contract earlier in July, making him the 16th highest paid 3-4 defensive end. Lowry has started 41 of 61 career games and like Butler he has caught fire as of late. When he signed his contract extension in July, he had posted 84 total tackles, 13 for a loss, seven sacks and three fumble recoveries. In his career, Lowry has accumulated 124 total tackles, 15 for a loss, seven sacks and two fumble recoveries.
For comparison, throughout the first four years of his career, Butler has accumulated 70 total tackles, nine tackles for a loss and three forced fumbles.
The future
The Panthers are going to have a tough time re-signing Butler, especially without overpaying him. And with general manager Marty Hurney under the microscope at the end of his second losing season in a row and with his history of overpaying his players, it’s hard to see the team giving Butler a contract that he would be happy with.
The most likely scenario is Butler is offered a one-year prove it deal and given a chance to start for an entire season in the place of Gerald McCoy, who is a free agent next year – similar to how the team treated offensive lineman Daryl Williams last offseason.
However, if he becomes a free agent it’s not out of the question for another team to make Butler a top-15 paid 3-4 defensive end, based off of his flash of potential in 2019 and the market that has already been set for the position.
Who was the best No. 1 overall pick during this decade?
As the decade comes to a close, we wanted to take a look at the NFL draft through the last ten years. In this case, we’ve decided to evaluate all 10 drafts to find best and work pick at each selection. This isn’t necessarily a look at the best or worst picks of the decade, but rather a cross-section examination of each draft position in the first round.
There are slots where teams seemed to have staggering and surprising success, like at 27th overall. And then there were draft positions where teams couldn’t seem to get it right. Interestingly, 26th overall was one of the least fruitful spots over the last 10 years. Here’s what else we found.
First overall
Best: Cam Newton, QB, Panthers, 2011
He’s a former MVP and he appeared in the Super Bowl. Carolina might be done with him, but for the better part of the decade, Newton was dominant as a passer and runner. Maybe Andrew Luck is deserving, too, but his retirement and injuries give Newton the edge.
Worst: Sam Bradford, QB, Rams, 2010
Jared Goff could overtake Bradford if Goff continues to struggle over the next few years. But the young quarterback is showing room for growth. Bradford, meanwhile, put together just one solid season, in 2016 with the Vikings (71.6 completion percentage, 3,877 yards, 20 TDs, 5 INTs). He was otherwise a fringe starter.
Second overall
Best: Von Miller, DE, Broncos, 2011
He has over 100 sacks on his career to go with seven Pro Bowl nods, a Defensive Player of the Year award and a Super Bowl win. This one is easy. Miller trumps the likes of Ndamukong Suh, Saquon Barkley and Nick Bosa.
Worst: Greg Robinson, OT, Rams, 2014
Robinson has been on three different teams, and has been a headache for whatever team hopes he’ll be its starter at left tackle. For example, in 2016, he showed up to Rams camp 15 pounds overweight before drawing 12 penalties in 10 games. At that point, L.A. benched him. Quarterbacks Robert Griffin III and Mitchell Trubisky deserved careful consideration at this spot, but Robinson feels like the best choice here. Griffin had a terrific rookie season, but struggled with injuries past that. With a recent uptick, Trubisky may not be quite as bad as he has seemed earlier this year.
Third overall
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Best: Gerald McCoy, DT, Buccaneers, 2010
He plays a position that isn’t amenable to becoming a well-known personality in the NFL, and he began his career with an organization that didn’t get much attention. After nine seasons with the Bucs, McCoy signed with the Panthers in 2019. He’s had 28 or more tackles and five or more sacks each year. He logged a career-high 9.5 sacks in 2013.
Worst: Trent Richardson, RB, Browns, 2012
Richardson averaged 3.3 yards per carry on 614 rushes. He was actually a decent pass-catcher with 113 career receptions for 912 yards and two touchdowns. But the Alabama product could never find space to run between the tackles, which made him one of the biggest busts of the 2010s.
Fourth overall
Best: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys, 2016
Elliot tops an impressive group, which includes Trent Williams, Lane Johnson, A.J. Green, Amari Cooper, Leonard Fournette and Denzel Ward. It seems fourth overall is a good place to pick — after teams make a mistake and reach on a quarterback.
Worst: Matt Kalil, OT, Vikings, 2012
He actually had one Pro Bowl season in his rookie year, which goes to show how strong this draft slot has been over the decade. But his career has been marred by injuries, which makes him the worst pick in a group of good ones.
Fifth overall
Best: Patrick Peterson, CB, Cardinals, 2011
An incredible draft slot that produced Khalil Mack, Eric Berry and Jalen Ramsey. But Peterson’s longevity as one of the league’s top corners has been impressive. His return abilities have been enormous. He’s also likely to have earned more national recognition in any market other than Arizona.
Worst: Justin Blackmon, WR, Jaguars, 2012
A historically bad bust, Blackmon played just three seasons while recording 0 receptions in his final season in 2014. His best season came in 2012, his rookie year, with 64 catches for 865 yards and five touchdowns. The NFL suspended him for substance abuse in 2013, and he couldn’t get back on the field.
Sixth overall
Best: Julio Jones, WR, Falcons, 2011
He’s an absolute monster, so far logging 767 catches, 11,747 receptions and 55 touchdowns. Jones’ career has been defined by his freakishly large catch radius and his oversized but graceful frame.
Worst: Barkevious Mingo, DE, Browns, 2013
He hasn’t had a terrible career — just the worst of his peers at sixth overall. He was thought to be a decent pass-rusher, but recorded his career-high five sacks in his rookie season. He is playing for the Houston Texans in 2019 (after time with the Browns, Patriots and Colts), but has never recorded more than 50 tackles.
Seventh overall
Best: Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers, 2017
Evans may have a reputation for being injury prone, but he has never finished with fewer than 1,000 yards in his six NFL seasons. He comes in ahead of Joe Haden and Mike Williams.
Worst: Kevin White, WR, Bears, 2015
Cardinals guard Jonathan Cooper was a close second. Both players had a career marred by injury. Neither player found a way to contribute in the NFL, and are among the biggest busts of their class — and of the decade.
Eighth overall
Best: Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers, 2017
He’s the best pass-catching back of his generation, who also happens to have rushed for over 1,000 yards two of his first three seasons.
Worst: Justin Gilbert, CB, Browns, 2014
The Browns bailed on Gilbert after two unimpressive seasons, and traded him to the Pittsburgh Steelers for a sixth-round pick. He struggled just as much for the Steelers in 2016, and his NFL career ended with a suspension for substance-abuse. No one signed him after that.
Ninth overall
Best: Tyron Smith, OT, Cowboys, 2011
He’s one of the best left tackles in football, and has been for practically his entire career.
Worst: Dee Milliner, CB, Jets, 2013
He got benched three times in his rookie season. Then a rash of injuries kept him off the field for the following three years. After the Jets cut him in 2016, no one signed him.
10th overall
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Best: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs, 2017
Cornerback Stephon Gilmore was also selected in this slot by the Bills, and is the best cornerback in football now for the Patriots. But Mahomes is one of the most physically gifted quarterbacks of a generation. He won the NFL MVP and shattered passing records in his first season as a starter. His 2019 season has been a bit of a regression after he suffered a knee injury. But there’s little doubt he’ll get back on track.
Worst: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Jaguars, 2011
Gabbert’s staying power in the NFL is impressive, if only because he’s never been very good. He showed some semblance of competency at the position in San Francisco in 2015 when he had a 3-5 record while completing 63.1 % of his passes for 2,031 yards, 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. But his career completion percentage is 56% and his yards per attempt is 6.1. He never justified Jacksonville’s selection.
11th overall
Best: J.J. Watt, DE, Texans, 2011
When he’s healthy, he’s one of the best defensive linemen in the NFL. In his first five NFL seasons, he had two years when he had 20.5 sacks. But he has played just eight games in three of the last four seasons. Injuries are the only thing keeping Watt from the Hall of Fame.
Worst: Anthony Davis, OT, 49ers, 2010
No, not the Lakers star. This Anthony Davis retired after the 2014 season. He did what was right for him — he called it a career to “let his brain and body heal.” That brought an end to his quiet career.
12th overall
Best: Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans, 2017
There was some anxiety about what the NFL would do without Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers. It seems the league will be just fine with talents like Watson, Mahomes and Russell Wilson, among others.
Worst: Christian Ponder, QB, Vikings, 2011
Ponder is definitely not in that group of next-generation quarterbacks. His career completion percentage finished at 59.8 and he threw almost as many interceptions (36) as he did touchdowns (38) during his four seasons as a starter. Minnesota cut ties with him, and he worked as a journeyman backup for a few more years.
13th overall
Best: Aaron Donald, DT, Rams, 2014
He’s the best defensive player in the NFL. So, yeah, he’s also the best player selected at 13th overall.
Worst: Haason Reddick, LB, Cardinals, 2017
The No. 13 selection has actually produced a number of solid players. So Reddick gets the “worst” label, even if his career hasn’t been that disastrous. He had 80 tackles and four sacks in 2018, and is on pace for something similar in 2019. It’s not great — and not terrible.
14th overall
Best: Earl Thomas, S, Seahawks, 2010
Between Baltimore and Seattle, Thomas has put together a number of seasons where he’s the best safety in the NFL. Need a hard-hitter? He’ll put up 100 tackles. Need takeaways? He’s posted three five-interception seasons.
Worst: Karl Joseph, S, Raiders, 2016
He had one strong season in 2018, but has been hurt and inconsistent in the others. Typically, that wouldn’t warrant the “worst” label but the other competitor for this spot is Star Lotulelei, who has been solid during his career. The 14th overall slot is impressive.
15th overall
Best: Mike Pouncey, C, Dolphins, 2011
He’s a four-time Pro Bowler, who has long been exceptional in his role. My major hesitation to put him here was his role in Bullygate.
Worst: Corey Coleman, WR, Browns, 2016
The Browns bailed on Coleman after just two seasons. He’s currently with the Giants, where he’s at the bottom of a shallow depth chart.
16th overall
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Best: Zach Martin, G, Cowboys, 2014
This group boasts Lions left tackle Taylor Decker and Bills linebacker Tremaine Edmonds. But Martin is probably the best guard in football, and has five Pro Bowls. He earns the honors for this slot.
Worst: E.J. Manuel, QB, Bills, 2013
The NFL gave up on Manuel too quickly, which is why I only begrudgingly give him this ignominious label. Manuel finished his career playing 30 games over five seasons with 3767 passing yards, 20 touchdowns and 16 interceptions with a 58.1 completion percentage.
17th overall
Best: Derwin James, S, Chargers. 2018
He suffered a stress fracture in his foot which seems to have slowed his development in 2019. But in his rookie season, he earned a Pro Bowl nod, which was clearly justified by his strong play in L.A.’s secondary.
Worst: Jarvis Jones, LB, Steelers, 2013
He played just four NFL seasons, with six sacks and 129 tackles. That’s not the production a team hopes for from a first-round pick.
18th overall
Best: Maurice Pouncey, C, Steelers, 2010
The Chiefs took Marcus Peters in this slot, which worked out nicely (until they traded him). But Pouncey has been the picture of consistency (six Pro Bowls) when he’s not kicking and punching Myles Garrett in the head.
Worst: Calvin Pryor, S, Jets, 2014
Yet another safety with a strong first season. And yet another safety who failed to build off that first season in a meaningful way. The Jets traded him away to the Cleveland Browns, who dropped Pryor after he got in a fight with Ricardo Louis. He spent a few months with the Jaguars in 2018 before getting bounced out of the league.
19th overall
Best: Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Cowboys, 2018
For whatever reason, the 19th overall spot hasn’t produced a great number of gems, with the exception Vander Esch and tackle Ja’Waun James. But Vander Esch has proven to be the sideline-to-sideline linebacker the Cowboys wanted him to be. He’s at the core of their defense.
Worst: Cam Erving, C, Browns, 2015
This slot hasn’t produced many duds either. The Browns moved Erving from guard to center, which didn’t work out. So Cleveland traded him to the Chiefs for a fifth-round pick. He is actually now a depth option on the offensive line in Kansas City. Erving isn’t a failure, per se. But he’s probably had a worse career than cornerback Prince Amukamara, another option at this spot.
20th overall
Best: Kyle Long, G, Bears, 2013
He’s a three-time Pro Bowler. He’s not a future Hall of Famer, he has long been a reliable starter in the NFL (so long as he’s healthy, which he hasn’t been this season). The No. 20 spot produced a number of solid pros, even if they weren’t terrific. (Though Broncos tight end Noah Fant may be a star in the making.)
Worst: Nelson Agholor, WR, Eagles, 2015
Who would you rather: Kendall Wright or Agholor? That’s the conundrum for the worst player at this slot. Wright exceeded 1,000 yards in one of his NFL seasons. Agholor has lasted longer, but has never managed that kind of production.
Who? By his fourth season in Cleveland, he recorded six tackles and no sacks. He then bounced from Denver in 2016 to Washington in 2017. He never made much of an impact on any defense.
22nd overall
Best: Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos, 2010
He and Peyton Manning were key cogs in one of the NFL’s most prolific passing attacks. Thomas served as the No. 1 option for the Broncos. He had five consecutive seasons with 1,000 yards or more.
Worst: Brandon Weeden (2012), Johnny Manziel (2014), Browns, QB
Man, the Browns are not good at this. They can’t draft quarterbacks. They can’t draft. They can’t.
23rd overall
Best: Dee Ford, DE, Chiefs, 2014
This has been a pretty brutal draft position during the last decade. Ford finishes in first, just ahead of Packers guard Bryan Bulaga, Patriots tackle Isaiah Wynn (who has been good but oft-injured), and Giants tight end Evan Engram (also good but oft-injured). I’ll pick Ford because of his potential, even if Bulaga has had impressive staying power in the NFL.
Worst: Danny Watkins, G, Eagles, 2011
Even Eagles general manager Howie Roseman would admit it: the “innate toughness” Watkins showed at Baylor never carried to the NFL. Vikings defense tackle Shariff Floyd may have been just as bad as Watkins. Or maybe Vikings receiver Laquon Treadwell? Again, this was a rough draft spot in the 2010s.
24th overall
Best: Cameron Jordan, DE, Saints, 2011
This proved a solid spot with Steelers guard David DeCastro and Cowboys receiver Dez Bryant. But Jordan is one of the most consistent defensive linemen in the league, and he does more than just rush the passer. He is currently in his fifth season with 10 or more sacks.
Worst: Bjoern Werner, DE, Colts, 2013
He recorded 6.5 sacks and 80 tackles in three years in the NFL. That is all.
25th overall
Best: Xavier Rhodes, CB, Vikings, 2013
Rhodes has been a two-time Pro Bowler and an integral member of the Vikings’ defense for years. Patriots linebacker Dont’a Hightower and Seahawks tackle James Carpenter were in consideration.
Worst: Artie Burns, CB, Steelers, 2016
Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow would have been a fun person to put into this spot. But in earnest, Burns’ career is likely to be worse than Tebow’s. After Burns failed to earn a starting role, the Steelers declined his fifth-year option, and it’s hard to imagine he’ll have success elsewhere.
26th overall
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Best: Whitney Mercilus, DE, Texans, 2012
Mercilus has never been statistically special. His career-high in sacks is 12, and it’s the only time he logged double digit sacks. But this draft slot hasn’t paid out. Mercilus edged out falcons receiver Calvin Ridley.
Worst: Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Chiefs, 2011
This slot features more busts than any other: defensive lineman Datone Jones, linebacker Marcus Smith, receiver Breshad Perriman and quarterback Paxton Lynch. But Baldwin was worst of all: he played three NFL seasons with 607 career receiving yards and two touchdowns.
27th overall
Best: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans, 2013
The 26th spot was terrible. The 27th spot was amazing. Patriots safety Devin McCourty, Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White and Cowboys cornerback Byron Jones all went in this slot. But “Nuk” is the best receiver in the NFL, and is therefore the best player drafted at this position.
Worst: Rashaad Penny, RB, Seahawks, 2018
He came in with big expectations, and then Chris Carson exceeded them. Penny has been an efficient ball-carrier when he gets the ball, but he’s the clear No. 2 behind Carson. That’s probably not what Seattle hoped from their first round pick.
28th overall
Best: Mark Ingram, RB, Saints, 2011
6,894 rushing yards. 59 touchdowns. And counting.
Worst: Joshua Garnett, G, 49ers, 2016
He made 11 starts during his rookie season, and spent 2017 on injured reserve. He spent most of the following season dealing with injuries, and the team ultimately cut him before the start of the 2019 season.
29th overall
Best: Harrison Smith, S, Vikings, 2012
The four-time Pro Bowler has never finished with fewer than 58 tackles in a season, and that was because he played just eight games. He’s been one of the best safeties in the NFL since his rookie season.
Worst: Dominique Easley, DT, Patriots, 2014
He barely played for the Patriots because of knee issues. He played in L.A., but wasn’t particularly good.
30th overall
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Best: T.J. Watt, LB, Steelers, 2017
He’s a versatile linebacker who can do it all: defend the run, rush the passer and work in coverage. It doesn’t hurt he’s recorded over 25 sacks in 2019 and 2018.
Worst: A.J. Jenkins, WR, 49ers, 2012
What cracks me up about Jenkins is that the 49ers and Chiefs made a swap of busted receivers when both teams realized their picks stunk. They swapped Jenkins and Baldwin (also shown on this list). The thought was that a change of scenery might help them play better. It did not.
31st overall
Best: Travis Frederick, C, Cowboys, 2013
Another Cowboys offensive lineman? That’s right. Jerry Jones knows how to pick his offensive linemen.
Worst: Stephon Anthony, LB, Saints, 2015
Anthony is actually still in the NFL, if you can believe it. After recording 112 tackles in his rookie season, he has recorded a total of 38 tackles over the following four seasons.
32nd overall
Best: Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens, 2018
Electric.
Worst: David Wilson, RB, Giants, 2012
He played just two and a half seasons before he had to retire due to concussion issues. He finished his career with 546 yards from scrimmage.
Dak Prescott and Jadeveon Clowney highlight the list of potential free agents for 2020.
At the moment, the 2020 free-agent class looks stellar. It’s loaded with current, former and potential franchise quarterbacks and one big-time wide receiver
It also has some strong pass rushers. There are a few solid offensive linemen and a smattering of talented players at other positions. There could even be some big additions that could be added to the list if their current teams decide to let them go.
Hypothetically, this could rank as the best free-agent class ever. But let’s keep in mind that much can change between now and the official opening of free agency in March.
When it comes to the very top players on the list, their current teams are going to fight like heck to keep them with new contracts. That’s especially true with the quarterbacks.
Think about this for a second – who’s the last true franchise quarterback to switch teams in free agency? I say Drew Brees, who went from the Chargers to the Saints in 2006. Even then, the circumstances were unique. Brees had a severe shoulder injury and there was uncertainty if he would be able to play again. Plus the Chargers had Philip Rivers waiting in the wings. The Saints took a gamble on Brees and it paid off hugely.
But, again, that kind of thing is rare. The list of free agents will look much different in March than it does now.
Still, it’s fun to look at who is scheduled to be available in free agency. Here’s a list of the top 25 players, who, at the moment, are supposed to be available in March and it includes a couple of guys who are likely to be added to the list (Cam Newton, for example) who are likely to be released by their current teams and join the free-agent pool.
25. Brandon Scherff, G, Washington Redskins
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Interior linemen seldom get big money in free agency. But Scherff could be the exception. He’s a dominant run blocker and those are hard to come by.
McCoy has destroyed the narrative that he’s washed up and is defending the run and the pass well.
Not everything has worked out the way the Panthers had hoped this year. Injuries to Cam Newton and Kawann Short have made competing extremely difficult in a deep NFC field. That said, not everything has gone bad.
Some of general manager Marty Hurney’s pickups in free agency have performed quite well, especially defensive tackle Gerald McCoy. He has been named the team’s most underrated player of the 2019 season by Pro Football Focus. McCoy has destroyed the narrative that he’s washed up by defending the run well and getting after the quarterback.
“So far, McCoy has earned an 82.4 grade that ranks 11th among all interior defensive linemen, and he has shined specifically in run defense, as his 89.4 run-defense grade is the third-best at his position, trailing behind only Aaron Donald and Calais Campbell. His performance as a pass-rusher hasn’t been too bad either, with 30 pressures generated in his 10 games (12th).”
So far, he’s posted four sacks, eight quarterback hits and six tackles for a loss. With just an $8 million cap hit this year, McCoy is one of the top bargains in the league at his position.
McCoy is one of several defensive veterans that are either playing on one-year deals or are in the final year of their contracts. The unit might look very different next year, but the Panthers should try to keep him around for another run in 2020.
Good news: according to Joe Person at the Athletic, McCoy won’t be fined by the NFL for his hit.
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Panthers defensive tackle Gerald McCoy was flagged for one of the worst roughing the passer penalties we’ve ever seen last week against the Packers. Despite doing everything he could to avoid landing with his weight on Aaron Rodgers, McCoy drew a penalty and kept a critical drive alive for Green Bay to close out the half.
Good news: according to Joe Person at the Athletic, McCoy won’t be fined by the NFL for his hit.
Panthers DL Gerald McCoy was not fined for his hit last week on Aaron Rodgers, which drew a costly roughing the passer penalty.
McCoy was the centerpiece of a strong 2019 free agent class for the Panthers. The one-year, $8 million deal he signed is paying off. McCoy has posted three sacks, six QB hits and five tackles for a loss so far.
Even though he’ll be 32 years old next season, Carolina should consider bringing him back for another round.
Coach Ron Rivera says he plans to submit the call to the league for clarification, per David Newton at ESPN.
Panthers defensive tackle Gerald McCoy was called for one of the worst roughing the passer penalties in league history on Sunday. His tackle of Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers in his own end zone should have resulted in a grounding penalty. Instead, Green Bay got to continue a drive that lasted for the rest of the second quarter, robbing the Panthers of a crucial chance to score before the half.
Coach Ron Rivera says he plans to submit the call to the league for clarification, per David Newton at ESPN.
“Panthers coach Ron Rivera plans to send the controversial third-down roughing the passer penalty called on Gerald McCoy in the end zone with less than 5 minutes left in the first half to the league for clarification.”
McCoy says the officials told him that the flag was thrown because he landed with his full weight on Rodgers. Except that’s the exact opposite of what McCoy did.
If you watch the play, you’ll see he did everything in his power to shift his weight and slide off to the right instead of driving Rodgers into the ground.
