The San Francisco 49ers are the NFC’s representative despite the fact that they’ve been outplayed in both of the postseason games that got them here. Both the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions gave San Francisco all it could handle in the divisional round and in the NFC Championship game, so there isn’t a lot of margin when it comes time to discuss the 49ers’ matchups against the Kansas City Chiefs.
And in the case of Brock Purdy, San Francisco’s second-year quarterback has a current margin for error that is wafer-thin.
Purdy completed 21 of 30 passes for 267 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and a passer rating of 89.0 in the NFC Championship game against the Lions. On 14 of Purdy’s 30 attempts, the Lions rushed either three or four, and they were really paying attention to deflecting the ball at the line of scrimmage – they had a number of deflections there which affected the trajectory of Purdy’s throws.
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His interception to linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez with 8:47 left in the second quarter had four rushers on an overload left, and defensive tackle Josh Paschal tipped the ball as Purdy threw it. The attempt was to Deebo Samuel outside right on a 15-yard slant, but the ball didn’t even get close. Meanwhile, the Lions dropped Rodriguez, linebacker Alex Anzalone, and defensive back Brian Branch into intermediate coverage. It was Cover-6 – Cover-4 to the field and Cover-2 to the boundary – and that was going to be a very tough throw into all that traffic even if Purdy had a clean shot.
We can certainly talk about Purdy’s 51-yard throw to receiver Brandon Aiyuk with 6:29 left in the third quarter in which Purdy turned it loose downfield, but Purdy had to throw that ball with every bit of his ass, and cornerback Kindle Vildor had Aiyuk boxed out. It was up to Aiyuk to engage in some unexpected volleyball to come down with one of the more incredible postseason catches we’ll ever see. Once again, the Lions clouded the picture with their dropping defenders, rushing just four, and Purdy may have thought the big throw was the only throw there. Given that the 49ers were down 24-10 at that point in the game… maybe it was.
“Yeah. I mean, you can go back to camp, OTAs, you name it,” Purdy said Friday of that play. “The kind of catches that B.A. makes at practice, it’s pretty insane. Just his range and his ability to move in the air, all of it, all into one. And so yeah, when there’s a moment like that, he’s definitely one of the guys I can trust to just throw it up 50/50 and B.A.’s going to make a play. So, he is very acrobatic. He can track a ball really well, all of it. And so, like I said, one of the most underrated receivers in the league, I think he’s one of the best in the league for me to just throw a ball up like that. You definitely as a quarterback know and trust that he’s going to come down with it.”
Yeah, but… if that’s the only arrow in your quiver, that’s going to cause problems.
Throughout the regular season, the 49ers were carried in their passing game by Purdy’s ability to do two things at a very high level — decipher late coverage movement, and throw with great anticipation. Those attributes were in short supply in both of San Francisco’s postseason wins.
Purdy’s first throw against the Packers should have been a pick-six by safety Darnell Savage, because Purdy threw late to Aiyuk on a 15-yard bender inside, and Savage was all over it. Purdy didn’t throw the ball until after Aiyuk made his cut inside, and throughout most of the season, he would have thrown Aiyuk (or anybody else) open.
“I mean at the end of the day, I think it’s anticipation, it’s trust with your receivers,” Purdy said of the anticipation issue. “We run these routes time and time again, like I said, going back to OTAs and camp and stuff. So that’s where it starts. And then once you get in the heat of battle, obviously I think it comes down to film study, what the coverage is saying as I’m dropping back and where I’m anticipating the guy to be and to trust my guy to get under it over a backer, all those kinds of things, they all come into that play.
“So, it’s not like I’m just dropping back and throwing blind and hoping my guy’s going to be there. No. It comes down to understanding what the defense is doing, what we’re trying to do, where my guy’s going be and throwing it on time more than anything. That’s what it comes down to.”
What it also may come down to is how Steve Spagnuolo arrays his Chiefs defense to make things more difficult for Purdy. Spags has a full bag of stuff he can unload on any quarterback at any time, and if the issue for Purdy is a weird picture at the intermediate levels, he’s got the guys to make that happen. Linebackers Drue Tranquill, Nick Bolton, Willie Gay, and Leo Chenal can all drop into coverage depending on the scheme. All four should be available for the Super Bowl, so Kyle Shanahan will want to work on some ideas to get past that possible reality.
And it doesn’t have to be just linebackers dropping to take away those easy reads. On this Justin Herbert incompletion in Week 7, Tranquill, safety Justin Reid, and cornerback Trent McDuffie created confusion in intermediate coverage iu Cover-2, and Tranquill nearly had an interception on Justin Herbert’s throw up the right seam to tight end Donald Parham.
Brock Purdy has two choices in Super Bowl LVIII — either get back to the things that made him great in the regular season, or help to continue the 49ers’ 30-yard drought in the NFL’s biggest game.
