Lions vs. Jets: Last-minute thoughts and game prediction
Wishing a happy football Sunday to you all! If you’re like me and living in Michigan, stay warm.
Hopefully the Lions can provide some heat and excitement for the fans today. It’s an outdoor game in New York against a good Jets team, perhaps the biggest challenge of the four games left on the schedule.
New York is 7-6 and is there largely because of a stiff, smartly coordinated defense. The Jets allow just 4.8 yards per play, a figure that ties them with the 49ers for second in the league (the Eagles are the best). Their defensive front is very good even with Quinnen Williams hobbled (he’s questionable).
This is a game where the Lions offensive line will be challenged. Detroit is back at full strength with right guard Evan Brown (hopefully) back at full strength. New York wins defensively by creating pressure without blitzing and by stopping the run without devoting extra help in the box. If the Lions are going to find success on offense, it’ll be because left tackle Taylor Decker–who hasn’t allowed a pressure or committed a penalty in three of his last four games–and the line did more than just hold up against John Franklin-Myers and the Jets impressive front.
Key matchup: Red zone
The Lions have been cruising in the red zone on both sides of the ball recently. The offense has been very effective at converting red zone possessions into touchdowns. The defense has gone from the worst in the league over the first seven games to 16th in the last six in the same category.
That will need to carry over into today’s game. The Lions defense cannot give up touchdowns to Zach Wilson when he guides the Jets into the red zone. On the flip side, Jared Goff has to stay sharp and hit those red zone shots to Brock Wright, Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift. Touchdowns over field goals.
New York’s own red zone defense is pretty good for the season, but they’ve been lousy lately; the last five opposing incursions into the Jets red zone have resulted in touchdowns. Opponents not named the Bears or Patriots have scored TDs on 14 of their last 16 red zone trips. No team is better at converting red zone possessions into touchdowns than these Lions.
Weather
This game is outdoors and that’s a variable that doesn’t help the Lions. The weather doesn’t seem bad. Gametime forecasts indicate the temp should be in the high 30s but mostly sunny and with mild (5-10 mph) winds.
Those sorts of conditions shouldn’t impact Jared Goff too much. His accuracy on intermediate routes has been great recently and this level of wind and cold doesn’t seem to be an issue. The deep throws, where Goff isn’t very accurate to begin with, might be more problematic. It would help if the Lions can get the ground game going; neither Jamaal Williams nor D’Andre Swift played well last week. They’ll need to be better at following the block and maybe breaking a tackle or two to keep Goff from having to throw deeper routes to move the ball.
Zach Wilson
The Jets young quarterback is the ultimate X-factor in this game. Benched after consistent poor play, Wilson now gets a shot at redeeming himself in front of a skeptical home fan base and with teammates who openly cheered his benching.
The Lions have to be careful here. Wilson does have athletic talent, and he’s got better receivers than Lions fans might want to acknowledge. Garrett Wilson is a budding star and should be a front-runner for Offensive Rookie of the Year, while TE Tyler Conklin is a reliable weapon over the middle. Rookie Bam Knight is the kind of runner who can give the Lions problems, a guy who attacks north/south and has good balance through contact.
Wilson could very well have a career day, taking full advantage of what might be his last chance to save himself in New York despite this being just his second season. But the No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft has repeatedly proven he just doesn’t make good decisions and cannot reliably string together good plays. The key for the Lions is to weather the outbursts where Wilson reminds you that he’s got talent and take advantage when he reminds you why he wasn’t even the No. 2 behind Mike White when coach Robert Saleh popularly pulled the plug on him.
Prediction
I’ll be straight here–I like the matchup for Detroit. As long as the run game can be a net neutral, and the Lions defense can make that happen, I like the Lions a lot.
Detroit has the better quarterback. They have the better weapons. They have a decided advantage in the red zone. They even have the better kicker in Michael Badgley, should it come to that. New York has a very good young defense that will be a very real challenge, but I think Goff and the Lions offense rises to the challenge.
Lions 23, Jets 20
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