Tag: Game by Game predictions

Breaking down LSU’s game-by-game predictions using the Football Power Index

What will LSU’s final record be this fall?

As the month of July continues to chug along, we inch ever closer to the end of the offseason and the much-anticipated beginning of the 2022 season.

For the Tigers, that means the first look at new head coach [autotag]Brian Kelly[/autotag], who was hired this offseason after a 12-year stint at Notre Dame, where he stands as the winningest coach in program history. LSU reached a nadir in the past two seasons after winning a national title in 2019, but with a new coach and promising roster (albeit one with some questions), hopes are high this fall.

The schedule is challenging as it is every fall when you compete in the SEC West, but ESPN’s Football Power Index likes LSU’s chances of a solid finish. The FPI is high on the Tigers in general, ranking them 10th in the country entering the season.

Here’s how ESPN’s analytics system thinks each game will play out for Kelly’s team this fall.

College Football News predicts which games Texas will lose this season

CFN has Texas losing four games this season.

Just like every offseason, there is a substantial amount of hype and expectations surrounding the Texas football program ahead of the 2022 season. Continue reading “College Football News predicts which games Texas will lose this season”

Updated Football Power Index: LSU finds a way to get bowl eligible?

The final five games will decide bowl eligibility, can the Tigers win two more games?

It is really hard to get a handle on what to expect from the LSU Tigers after watching this team for seven games. They are 4-3 (2-2) after an improbable victory over the Florida Gators, a team no one thought would lose that game.

The Tigers looked like a team that gave everything to save the job of their head coach. Ed Orgeron’s group came out and outdueled a pair of Florida quarterbacks that threw four interceptions in the game.

Ty Davis-Price and the offensive line have been under heavy criticism for most of the season. After back-to-back 140+ yard performances from the junior running back, has the offense figured out how to run the ball once again?

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With five games remaining on the schedule, can LSU become bowl eligible? ESPN’s Football Power Index breaks down their chances by win probability.

LSU has the third-toughest schedule remaining

Updated look at win probabilities, the LSU Tigers have the third-toughest schedule remaining in the country.

The computers are starting to give some love to the LSU Tigers. Their win probabilities have changed for the better in every game this season.

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, LSU has the No. 3 toughest remaining schedule in the country. Only the Auburn Tigers have a tougher remaining schedule. Auburn has five teams remaining in the top 25, while LSU also has five. The difference is that the former has to play both the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide and No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs.

Updated look at the game-by-game win probabilities for LSU:

Opponent Win Probability Prev Change
at Mississippi State 44.2 41.6 +2.6
vs Auburn 41.6 34.4 +7.2
at Kentucky 59.1 37.6 +21.5
vs Florida 33.9 30.6 +3.3
at Ole Miss 30.4 25.8 +4.6
at Alabama 8.6 5.7 +2.9
vs Arkansas 50.9 44.8 +6.1
vs UL-Monroe 98.7 97.3 +1.5
vs Texas A&M 43.1 33.1 +10.0

Prior to the game against Central Michigan, the Tigers were only favored to win against UL-Monroe and the game this past Saturday. The update has LSU favored against Kentucky and Arkansas, but the game against the Razorbacks is essentially a coinflip at this point. Games against the Wildcats and Texas A&M saw the biggest change.

All eyes will be in Starkville this weekend as the Bayou Bengals travel to Mississippi State to open SEC play. The Bulldogs have a slight edge but the Tigers are hungry for retribution after losing 44-34 at home to open last season.

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Follow Patrick on Twitter: @PatrickConnCFB

 

Updated game-by-game predictions for Texas using ESPN’s FPI after the Arkansas loss

How likely are they to win the remaining games on their schedule?

The Steve Sarkisian era got off to a hot start in Week 1, where they defeated then ranked No. 23 Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 38-18 and looked solid and composed in all three phases. Continue reading “Updated game-by-game predictions for Texas using ESPN’s FPI after the Arkansas loss”

LSU Tigers updated game-by-game win probability, it’s getting ugly

By the looks of things, the LSU Tigers are trending in the wrong direction even after a win.

On Saturday night in Death Valley, the LSU Tigers were able to defend their home turf against the McNeese Cowboys. After leading the game 17-0 at the half, they scored another 17 after the break. The game ended 34-7 in favor of the Bayou Bengals.

Despite the 27-point margin of victory, this game didn’t feel like a win in the eyes of most. When you beat an FCS opponent, not a whole lot can be said. However, if you lose that game, a lot can be said. While the home team did come out victorious, it left more questions than answers about this football team.

LSU should have won by a bigger margin and they should have corrected their offensive woes from a week ago. While the defense was much improved as expected, the offense actually looked worse throughout the game. Max Johnson completed 18 of 27 passes for 161 yards and three touchdowns. His 5.9 yards per attempt left a lot to be desired.

Tyrion Davis-Price had a run of 21 yards in the game but outside of that run, he tallied seven carries for 16 yards. That 2.3 yards per carry essentially matched his output against the Bruins. Corey Kiner finished the game with 11 carries for 56 yards. He hit runs of 12 and 23 yards to get into the endzone. The other nine carries went for 21 yards.

Backs aren’t going to hit on every run, but against an inferior opponent, they should be dominating that line of scrimmage to let the backs run. Of the 126 yards rushing, 104 came after contact for these runners. Simply put, the offensive line is creating no room for them to run.

The Tigers quarterback duo were sacked a total of three times, with McNeese getting pressure on 11 of the drop-backs. The quarterbacks were taking hits on almost every pass attempt, or so it seemed. If they are struggling against an FCS opponent, what is going to happen when they start facing off against teams like Alabama and Texas A&M.

This week we have the updated game-by-game win probabilities for LSU, the Football Power Index has LSU going in the wrong direction. Based on the way this is looking, Ed Orgeron’s hot seat is only going to get hotter.