Florida falls in ESPN’s Football Power Index after Week 1 defeat

The Gators took quite a tumble in the FPI after Miami’s victory over Florida in the Swamp on Saturday.

One of the more promising metrics favoring Florida football coming into the 2024 campaign was ESPN’s Football Power Index, which ranked the Gators at No. 20 overall with an FPI of 10.1 in its preseason edition. However, the devastating home loss to the Miami Hurricanes in the season opener has resulted in some significant changes.

The Orange and Blue are now ranked 44th in the updated FPI following Week 1 with a 4.4 rating. That puts Florida at No. 14 in the Southeastern Conference, ahead of only the South Carolina Gamecocks (49th, 3.1) and the Vanderbilt Commodores (68th, -0.2).

“The Football Power Index is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season,” according to ESPN. “FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

Napier and Co. are given a 15.9% chance of winning six games this fall, a 0% chance of winning the conference, a 0.2% chance of making the College Football Playoffs, a 0% chance of making the championship game and a 0% chance of winning the national title.

That is a lot of zeroes.

SEC teams in FPI

The SEC is represented among the top 25 by the top-ranked Georgia Bulldogs (29.6), followed by the Alabama Crimson Tide (2nd, 27.2), Texas Longhorns (3rd, 25.8), Tennessee Volunteers (7th, 20.2), Ole Miss Rebels (8th, 17.9), Oklahoma Sooners (9th, 17.3), Missouri Tigers (12th, 15.5), Auburn Tigers (16th, 12.4), LSU Tigers (17th, 11.4) and Texas A&M Aggies (18th, 11.3).

The Kentucky Wildcats (28th, 8.6), Arkansas Razorbacks (30th, 8.4) and Mississippi State Bulldogs (37th, 6.4) sit outside of the top 25 along with Florida and the other two.

Next up for the Gators

The Gators will get a chance to even up their 2024 regular season record against the Samford Bulldogs next Saturday inside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on the SEC Network+.

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ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Notre Dame a good chance at going undefeated

The FPI likes the Irish’s chances

It was quite the weekend for Notre Dame football, as they went to College Station and defeated Texas A&M 23-13.

The win was a big one in the eyes of the pundits, but also the computers. ESPN’s Football Power Index, FPI, analyzes what most is the most likely outcome for the remainder of the season.

The Irish move up just a spot after the games completed on Sunday night, as they are one of six schools the computer-based system believes will reach the 10-win mark. The FPI gives Notre Dame the best chance to win out, 20.2%, of the top six teams that it projects to crack the double-digit win mark.

That’s all great information, but what you really want to know is about Notre Dame’s chances in the College Football Playoff. The FPI gives the Irish a 69.2% to make the CFP, 11.3% to make the national championship game and  5.1% chance to win the title.

Those aren’t terrible odds when you are looking at the big picture, as it believes that one of the top-six teams will take home the title. Notre Dame is one of those teams.

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Sooners overrated in ESPN’s Football Power Index per The Oklahoman

The Sooners placed fourth in the SEC in ESPN’s Football Power Index, trailing only Georgia, Texas and Alabama.

The Oklahoma Sooners football team was ranked fourth in the [autotag]SEC[/autotag] in ESPN’s Football Power index prior to the 2024 season.

OU came in at No. 8 overall in the country; six of the top 10 teams are from the SEC. [autotag]Brent Venables[/autotag]’ team trailed only Georgia (No. 1), Texas (No. 3) and Alabama (No. 5) in the Southeastern Conference.

Justin Martinez of The Oklahoman took a look at each SEC team relative to the ESPN Football Power Index. According to Martinez, the Sooners are overrated by the FPI.

Martinez had this to say.

OU has given the keys to sophomore quarterback [autotag]Jackson Arnold[/autotag]. And while he has a lethal receiver group that features Purdue transfer [autotag]Deion Burks[/autotag], he’ll be behind an offensive line that’s made up almost entirely of new pieces. The Sooners will lean on their defense, which boasts returners such as linebacker [autotag]Danny Stutsman[/autotag] and safety [autotag]Billy Bowman[/autotag]. But the No. 4 spot is high for a team that’ll likely be closer toward the middle of the pack. – Martinez, The Oklahoman

Martinez certainly has a point. Eighth in the country and fourth in the SEC would be a lofty finish for OU in Year 3 under Venables. The Sooners are transitioning from the [autotag]Big 12[/autotag] to a much more difficult conference in the SEC. The schedule and quality of athletes they’ll have to face this year will be much stronger than in past seasons.

Oklahoma will also be breaking in new coordinators on both sides of the ball. [autotag]Zac Alley[/autotag] takes over on defense, while [autotag]Seth Littrell[/autotag] and [autotag]Joe Jon Finley[/autotag] will run the offense.

Then, there’s the often-talked-about offensive line, which will probably be the hinge point of the entire season. As Martinez notes, it has been entirely rebuilt.

But what if the offensive line jells in 2024? What if [autotag]Jackson Arnold[/autotag] is a star and has an all-conference type of year? What if the defense continues to improve in Year 3 under Venables? These are the questions that give OU fans so much reason for optimism heading into a new conference.

The culture and identity of the program under Venables is growing and building on top of the foundation set over the past two years. Culture, identity and defense are what brought Venables to Soonerland in the first place.

The 2024 season is fascinating in Norman because there are so may ways this year can go for Oklahoma. First impressions can be lasting impressions, so it’s almost time for the Sooners to announce their presence in the SEC early and often when the season begins.

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Does Football Power Index get Florida Gators 2024 projection correct?

The FPI rankings appear to have Florida football’s 2024 outlook correct, according to the eye test.

ESPN recently released its Football Power Index — a power rating that tracks each team’s strength relative to an average Football Bowl Subdivision school — for all 134 FBS teams in 2024. In the data, programs are rated on offense, defense and special teams.

Among those listed are the Florida Gators, who landed at No. 20 overall despite a projected .500 regular-season record. However, the strength of schedule facing [autotag]Billy Napier[/autotag] and Co. is among the most formidable in the nation which earned the Orange and Blue the highest ranking for a 6-6 projection.

The Oklahoman’s Justin Martinez took a look at the Southeastern Conference’s status in the FPI rankings, in which Florida sits at No. 11 among its league peers. Much of the reason for the Gators’ strong strength of schedule is the brutal gauntlet that the SEC has to offer.

So do the numbers pass the eye test? Martinez thinks so, verifying the projections as accurate.

“Quarterback [autotag]Graham Mertz[/autotag] should be solid in his second season with Florida, and Arizona State transfer [autotag]Elijhah Badger[/autotag] will form a good receiver duo with [autotag]Eugene Wilson III[/autotag],” Martinez begins.

“The Gators should also improve defensively with numerous returners and transfer pickups such as South Carolina linebacker [autotag]Grayson Howard[/autotag] and Washington safety [autotag]Asa Turner[/autotag]. But Florida’s tough schedule will prevent it from cracking the top 10 of the standings.”

The SEC rankings are headed by the Georgia Bulldogs in the top spot, followed by the Texas Longhorns, Alabama Crimson Tide, Oklahoma Sooners, Tennessee Volunteers, Missouri Tigers, LSU Tigers, Texas A&M Aggies, Ole Miss Rebels and Auburn Tigers to round out the top 10.

Florida’s 2024 season opener

The Gators open up the 2024 schedule against the Miami Hurricanes on Aug. 31 in Gainesville, Florida. Kickoff time is slated for 3:30 p.m. ET and the game will be broadcast on ABC Sports.

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Florida football lands in Football Power Index top 25 ahead of 2024

A brutally difficult schedule gives the Gators a big boost in ESPN’s first FPI rankings ahead of the 2024 season.

ESPN released its opening edition of the 2024 Football Power Index, signaling that the college football season is not too far away. Although a bit under three months remain until the first kickoff, the data has been compiled and sorted giving the model plenty to work with in predicting the upcoming campaign.

The Florida Gators led by third-year head coach [autotag]Billy Napier[/autotag] ranked among the top 25 schools on the list, coming in at No. 20 overall with an FPI of 10.1, but No. 11 among Southeastern Conference peers. The data projects only a .500 record for the Orange and Blue, demonstrating the difficult schedule that faces the program next fall.

“The Football Power Index is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season,” according to ESPN. “FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

Napier and Co. are given a 58.2% chance of winning six games, a 0.7% chance of winning the conference, an 8.3% chance of making the College Football Playoffs, a 0.7% chance of making the championship game and a microscopic 0.3% chance of winning the national title.

The SEC is also represented among the top 25 by the top-ranked Georgia Bulldogs, followed by the Texas Longhorns (No. 3), Alabama Crimson Tide (No. 5), Oklahoma Sooners (No. 8), Tennessee Volunteers (No. 9), Missouri Tigers (No. 10), LSU Tigers (No. 13), Texas A&M Aggies (No. 14), Ole Miss Rebels (No. 16) and Auburn Tigers (No. 19).

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Where Penn State ranks in ESPN’s first FPI rankings for 2024

ESPN predicts Penn State being among the highest-ranked teams in college football in its preseason FPI ratings.

Coming off a 10-3 season in 2023 and with high hopes in the new era of college football, Penn State continues to draw some national respect in the preseason polls and rankings. Already labeled a preseason top-10 team by Athlon Sports, the Nittany Lions are now receiving a top-10 ranking from ESPN’s own metric, the Football Power Index (or the FPI for short). ESPN updated its FPI for the 2024 college football season this weekend, and Penn State is looking to start the season with a top-10 ranking.

ESPN ranks Penn State at no. 6 in its updated FPI rankings for 2024. Despite the lofty ranking, Penn State is still the third-highest-ranked team in the Big Ten. Newcomer Oregon is no. 2 in the FPI rankings and popular preseason Big Ten favorite Ohio State is ranked no. 4.

The top team in ESPN’s FPI rankings is Georgia, of the SEC. Incoming SEC member Texas is ranked no. 3 between Oregon and Ohio State, and Alabama comes in at no. 5 between the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions. Defending Big Ten and national champion Michigan is ranked no. 12 as the next highest-ranked Big Ten team after Penn State.

According to ESPN’s FPI projections, Penn State is expected to win 10 games this season (10.1 is the official mathematical prediction of ESPN’s FPI metric). Penn State has a 7.1% chance of going undefeated and a 99.1% chance of meeting the bowl eligibility minimum of six wins. ESPN’s FPI predicts Penn State has a 22.2% chance of winning the Big Ten and a 59.1% chance of making the new 12-team College Football Playoff bracket.

When it comes to winning it all, something Penn State has not officially been recognized for doing since beating Miami in the 1987 Fiesta Bowl, the FPI gives Penn State a 13.3% chance of reaching the national championship game and a 6.6% chance of winning the national championship.

So you’re telling me there’s a chance.

You can see ESPN’s full FPI rankings to see where other schools rank in the preseason FPI ratings.

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ESPN’s FPI gives Saints less than 1% chance to win Super Bowl LIX

ESPN’s Football Power Index gave the New Orleans Saints a less than 1% chance to win Super Bowl LIX inside their own stadium:

We’re saying there’s a chance. Well, ESPN is saying that — ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gave the New Orleans Saints a 0.4% chance of winning Super Bowl LIX, which will be played at the Caesars Superdome in February.

Believe it or not, those aren’t the worst odds around the league. Four teams were given zero chances of bringing home a title, including the division-rival Carolina Panthers. But the Saints did rank 10th-worst in FPI’s forecast, which doesn’t inspire much confidence. That’s a direct reflection of the lack of success they’ve found since Drew Brees retired back in 2021, with neither Sean Payton nor Dennis Allen guiding the Saints back to the playoffs.

The latest FPI predicts the Saints will win 7.7 to 9.3 games, which gives them a 29.5% chance of returning to the postseason for the first time since 2020. Those playoff odds rank 12th-lowest among the 32 teams. Two other NFC South teams have been given better chances of reaching the postseason. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are slightly ahead at 33.6% as reigning division champs, while the Kirk Cousins-led Atlanta Falcons are favored best at 67.4%.

Conversely, this suggests the Saints could end up picking at No. 10 overall in the 2025 NFL draft. That might give them an opportunity to draft a difference-maker at quarterback or another premium position like defensive end or wide receiver. But we don’t even know who will be entering the draft in 2025, much less who may be available at whichever spot the Saints are picking. For now, all the Saints can do is keep their heads down, work hard, and hope their fortunes trend up in 2024.

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Where Gators rank in ESPN’s final FPI update, plus efficiency ratings

Here are the final numbers for Florida according to ESPN’s FPI. Surprisingly, they are pretty bullish in comparison to others.

ESPN published its final Football Power Index along with other related data for the college football landscape, including the Florida Gators, following the Michigan Wolverines‘ 34-13 triumph over the Washington Huskies in the College Football Playoff Championship Game on Monday,

The FPI was developed by ESPN in 2013 to measure each team’s overall strength and predict results throughout the season. As the schedule progressed, the data was used to determine a team’s FPI ranking from the games played while also predicting the outcomes for each future matchup.

Take a look below at ESPN’s final FPI numbers and other data for Florida football now that the 2023 campaign is officially finalized.

Ranking all 32 NFL teams (including the Saints) by playoff probability

Ranking all 32 NFL teams (including the long-shot New Orleans Saints) by playoff probability going into Week 17:

Derek Carr and Dennis Allen haven’t exactly guided the New Orleans Saints to the playoffs. They’re facing elimination from the postseason altogether on Sunday; a loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would put the NFC South out of reach, and a couple of other games’ results could put the final nails in their coffin.

ESPN’s NFL Football Power Index gives the Saints a 10.9% chance of reaching the playoffs going into Week 17. If New Orleans can’t win the NFC South, they’ll need both the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks to lose out in the final two weeks so they can get that seventh wild-card spot. It isn’t very likely.

Here’s where the Saints rank among the rest of the league per ESPN’s playoff percentages:

ESPN’s FPI ranking plus other data after regular season end for Florida

Take a look at the FPI numbers at the end of the Florida Gators’ 2023 campaign.

ESPN updated its Football Power Index along with other related data for the college football landscape, including the Florida Gators, after the dust settled in Week 13. Some of the categories have expired now that the season is complete, leaving just a few rankings to review.

The FPI was developed by ESPN in 2013 to measure each team’s overall strength and predict results throughout the season. As the schedule progresses, the data used to determine a team’s FPI ranking will come from the games played while also predicting the outcomes for each future matchup.

Take a look below at ESPN’s FPI numbers and other data for Florida following its 5-7 season in 2023.