Can the Packers find a bargain in the free agent tight end market?
The free agent tight end market has seen several players receive contracts below their projected values. This could be advantageous for the salary-cap-strapped Green Bay Packers.
Excluding Evan Engram, who received the franchise tag from Jacksonville, five tight ends from PFF’s top-200 free agents list have received new deals. Four of them are below what was projected.
Dalton Schultz, the top tight end on the market, ended up signing just a one-year deal worth $9 million when he was projected to average $14.5 million per year on a multi-year contract. Mike Gesicki is joining New England on a one-year, $4.5 million contract after being projected at $11 million per year. Hayden Hurst is close, earning $7.25 million per year from Carolina, but still $1 million below his projected value. Meanwhile, old friend Robert Tonyan is making $2.65 million in 2023 with Chicago after being expected to earn $5 million per year on a two-year contract.
Now, sure, at the end of the day, these were only projections from PFF that we are using as our benchmark, but when multiple players are not only way off in terms of average annual value but also the length of the contract, the tight end market very well could be a bit suppressed.
As we are all well aware, the Packers do not have a ton of cap space flexibility, despite having over $24 million in space available at the moment, and how they’ve gone about free agency up to this point reflects that. Eating up that available space will be an additional $9 million in dead cap from trading Aaron Rodgers, along with any other dollars that could be used to help New York pay for the almost $60 million he is guaranteed in 2023. On top of that, there are unaccounted-for expenses such as the draft class, the final two roster spots, and the practice squad incoming.
In total, Ken Ingalls, who independently tracks the Packers’ salary cap, estimates that Green Bay has around $11 million in cap space to spend in free agency this offseason. Between bringing back Keisean Nixon, Rudy Ford, and Corey Ballentine, while also signing Tarvarius Moore and Matt Orzech, that limited amount that was available is already over halfway gone.
One potential reason for the current state of the tight end market is that this is a loaded draft class at the position, which could be why teams aren’t willing to commit as many dollars or years to this group of free agents. Following the NFL Combine, NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah would say that he had 11 tight ends with at least third-round grades–and an absurd amount of talent.
Given that this draft class is oozing with talent, the Packers should absolutely spend an early-round pick on a tight end, and with their lack of depth, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to use another pick on the position, either. However, there is still plenty of value in adding a veteran free agent to this position group as well.
Historically, even early-round draft picks at the tight end position do not contribute significantly in that first season. As Jamison Hensley wrote in a 2018 ESPN article, only two rookie tight ends from 2003 to 2018 recorded over 600 receiving yards. Since then, only Kyle Pitts has joined that exclusive group.
Between having to know blocking techniques and assignments like an offensive tackle to knowing route trees and releases like a receiver, it’s a difficult transition to make. So having a veteran for Jordan Love to lean on as a rookie undoubtedly goes through some ups and downs would help provide some needed stability at the position.
NOTE: This article posted before Foster Moreau revealed his cancer diagnosis.
Of the remaining tight ends, Foster Moreau makes the most sense for the Packers. As a pass-catcher over his four-year career, Moreau has averaged over 12 yards per catch and hauled in 12 touchdowns. In 2022, his 12.7 yards per catch was the fifth most among tight ends. Moreau also has experience playing out wide and in the slot, with versatility being a key element to playing tight end in Matt LaFleur’s offense, and he can hold his own as a blocker as well.
PFF originally projected Moreau to earn $7 million per year on a three-year contract. If the market pushes down his average annual value like it seems to be doing for other top tight ends, Moreau could end up in the Packers’ price range. Even a $5 million per year deal that is more than one year or has void years utilized could keep Moreau’s 2023 cap hit to just a few million dollars.
Tight end is perhaps the biggest need that the Packers have to address this offseason, needing both depth and more playmaking at the position. The draft will present them with the opportunity to add to this position group, and the way free agency has started, Green Bay could have the opportunity to add there as well, even with limited cap space.
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