Tag: Football Power Index

Notre Dame moves up in ESPN’s Football Power Index after Purdue blowout

ESPN is still high on the Irish

While both major polls, the US LMB Coaches Poll and the AP Poll didn’t move Notre Dame much, ESPN did.

Their Football Power Index was updated following Week 3’s slate of games, and the Irish made a move from No. 10 up to No. 7 following the dismantling of Purdue. They jumped Penn State, and Missouri, while other teams around them did make a drop as well.

Looking across the country, Texas held onto its top ranking, while Tennessee jumped Georgia to make it into the top-4.

Notre Dame showed that they could put up plenty of points on offense, while its stout defense came to play against a more than solid Purdue attack.

WEST LAFAYETTE, INDIANA – SEPTEMBER 14: Boubacar Traore #5 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish scores a touchdown after an interception during the first half against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium on September 14, 2024 in West Lafayette, Indiana. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)

Looking further into the data, ESPN gives the Irish a 22.8% chance to win out, and a 37.2% to make the [autotag]College Football Playoff[/autotag]. There was a 14.6 percentage point increase from last week to this for Notre Dame to make the CFP.

If ESPN is correct in its projections, the Irish are looking at a much better situation than they were in a week ago.

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ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Notre Dame a good chance at going undefeated

The FPI likes the Irish’s chances

It was quite the weekend for Notre Dame football, as they went to College Station and defeated Texas A&M 23-13.

The win was a big one in the eyes of the pundits, but also the computers. ESPN’s Football Power Index, FPI, analyzes what most is the most likely outcome for the remainder of the season.

The Irish move up just a spot after the games completed on Sunday night, as they are one of six schools the computer-based system believes will reach the 10-win mark. The FPI gives Notre Dame the best chance to win out, 20.2%, of the top six teams that it projects to crack the double-digit win mark.

That’s all great information, but what you really want to know is about Notre Dame’s chances in the College Football Playoff. The FPI gives the Irish a 69.2% to make the CFP, 11.3% to make the national championship game and  5.1% chance to win the title.

Those aren’t terrible odds when you are looking at the big picture, as it believes that one of the top-six teams will take home the title. Notre Dame is one of those teams.

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Could the Oklahoma Sooners make the playoff with 3 losses?

The Sooners have a tough schedule, but even a down year could include a berth in the College Football Playoff.

Entering the 2024 season a lot has been made of the Oklahoma Sooners schedule in year one in the [autotag]SEC[/autotag]. The schedule is tough, considering OU will play six teams ranked inside the top 15 of the US LBM Coaches Poll.

Due to the evolving nature of college football, with conference realignment and the expanded [autotag]College Football Playoff[/autotag], contending for a national title is going to look a lot different than it ever has.

In most years, your national champion will have one or fewer losses. However, we’ve reached the era of college football, where the team that wins the title could have multiple losses during the regular season and still go on to win the national championship.

And given the depth of the SEC and the Big Ten, there’s a reality where a three-loss team could make the playoff and (cough, cough) win the whole thing.

247Sports Brad Crawford explored a number of teams that could make the College Football Playoff with three losses. He included teams like Texas, USC, and Florida, among others. But one team he didn’t include in his discussion was Oklahoma. The Sooners have one of the tougher schedules in the nation, and arguably the second most difficult schedule in the SEC.

Nobody within the program or Oklahoma Sooners fan base would ever be satisfied with a three-loss regular season. But in the new era of college football, there’s a path in which the Sooners could go through the regular season with three losses and still make the College Football Playoff.

The Sooners will play Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss, Missouri, LSU, and Tennessee. Those six teams are inside the top 15 of the preseason Coaches Poll. And they’ll all likely be in the top 15 of the poll when the play Oklahoma. They will be marquee games that will have SEC title and playoff implications. Those six games will likely determine the 2024 season for the Sooners. Go 4-2 in those games and the Sooners are a playoff team. Go 3-3 and they’ll be on the fringe.

If Oklahoma’s losses are to teams like Texas, Alabama, and Ole Miss, three teams ranked in the top six of the preseason poll, then there’s a good chance the Sooners could earn one of those final at-large bids with wins over Missouri, LSU, and Tennessee along with a road win over Auburn. If they can include a win over Texas, Bama, or Ole Miss, it’ll give them an even better chance.

Currently, the ESPN Football Power Index gives the Oklahoma Sooners a 36.6% chance to make the playoff in 2024 and just a 5.1% chance to win the SEC. Their chance to make the playoff puts the Sooners 10th in the nation, even with a projected win-loss record of 8.2-3.9.

In the course of college football history, a three-loss team would be out of the running for a national title. But that’s in the past. It’s a new day in college football. Teams with two losses will still have a lot to play for in November. And the Oklahoma Sooners will be one of those teams with a lot to playoff in the final month of the season.

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Sooners overrated in ESPN’s Football Power Index per The Oklahoman

The Sooners placed fourth in the SEC in ESPN’s Football Power Index, trailing only Georgia, Texas and Alabama.

The Oklahoma Sooners football team was ranked fourth in the [autotag]SEC[/autotag] in ESPN’s Football Power index prior to the 2024 season.

OU came in at No. 8 overall in the country; six of the top 10 teams are from the SEC. [autotag]Brent Venables[/autotag]’ team trailed only Georgia (No. 1), Texas (No. 3) and Alabama (No. 5) in the Southeastern Conference.

Justin Martinez of The Oklahoman took a look at each SEC team relative to the ESPN Football Power Index. According to Martinez, the Sooners are overrated by the FPI.

Martinez had this to say.

OU has given the keys to sophomore quarterback [autotag]Jackson Arnold[/autotag]. And while he has a lethal receiver group that features Purdue transfer [autotag]Deion Burks[/autotag], he’ll be behind an offensive line that’s made up almost entirely of new pieces. The Sooners will lean on their defense, which boasts returners such as linebacker [autotag]Danny Stutsman[/autotag] and safety [autotag]Billy Bowman[/autotag]. But the No. 4 spot is high for a team that’ll likely be closer toward the middle of the pack. – Martinez, The Oklahoman

Martinez certainly has a point. Eighth in the country and fourth in the SEC would be a lofty finish for OU in Year 3 under Venables. The Sooners are transitioning from the [autotag]Big 12[/autotag] to a much more difficult conference in the SEC. The schedule and quality of athletes they’ll have to face this year will be much stronger than in past seasons.

Oklahoma will also be breaking in new coordinators on both sides of the ball. [autotag]Zac Alley[/autotag] takes over on defense, while [autotag]Seth Littrell[/autotag] and [autotag]Joe Jon Finley[/autotag] will run the offense.

Then, there’s the often-talked-about offensive line, which will probably be the hinge point of the entire season. As Martinez notes, it has been entirely rebuilt.

But what if the offensive line jells in 2024? What if [autotag]Jackson Arnold[/autotag] is a star and has an all-conference type of year? What if the defense continues to improve in Year 3 under Venables? These are the questions that give OU fans so much reason for optimism heading into a new conference.

The culture and identity of the program under Venables is growing and building on top of the foundation set over the past two years. Culture, identity and defense are what brought Venables to Soonerland in the first place.

The 2024 season is fascinating in Norman because there are so may ways this year can go for Oklahoma. First impressions can be lasting impressions, so it’s almost time for the Sooners to announce their presence in the SEC early and often when the season begins.

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Texas FPI ranking accurate, Sooners overrated according to the Oklahoman

One team looks poised for a title run, the other hopes to finish ahead of middling status.

The Football Power Index has been a topic of discussion as the dog days of summer have arrived. The Texas Longhorns are among the top three teams in the country in this computer-generated rankings and No. 2 in the SEC behind SEC-favorite, Georgia Bulldogs.

The only other team to check in ahead of the Burnt Orange is the Oregon Ducks, who had a tremendous offseason adding quarterbacks Dillon Gabriel (Oklahoma) and Dante Moore (UCLA). The team also lured former Texas A&M wideout Evan Stewart to Eugene.

The Longhorns have a projected W-L of 10.0-2.4, while also having the third-best chance to win the College Football Playoff national championship at 11.4%. The top team, Georgia, will travel to Austin for a mid-October showdown at Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium.

When discussing Texas, Justin Martinez believes that their No. 2 FPI ranking is accurate in his projections.

“Texas should adjust well to the SEC with quarterback Quinn Ewers leading the charge,” Martinez wrote. “And even though wide receivers Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell are gone, Alabama’s Isaiah Bond and Houston’s Matthew Golden are now in the mix. Texas’ defense also lost some key contributors, but it reloaded by adding Louisville defensive lineman Jermayne Lole and UTSA linebacker Trey Moore. The Longhorns are set up to compete for an SEC title.”

However, when it came to the Longhorns’ biggest rivals, he was less than impressed where the computers have the Sooners.

“OU has given the keys to sophomore quarterback Jackson Arnold.” Martinez continued, “And while he has a lethal receiver group that features Purdue transfer Deion Burks, he’ll be behind an offensive line that’s made up almost entirely of new pieces. The Sooners will lean on their defense, which boasts returners such as linebacker Danny Stutsman and safety Billy Bowman. But the No. 4 spot is high for a team that’ll likely be closer toward the middle of the pack.”

SEC has toughest schedules, Big 12 has weakest per FPI

Breaking down some of the numbers from the latest FPI.

The SEC is regarded as the best conference in college football and they only added to that strength in realignment. Since 2000, the SEC has claimed 14 titles.

So when you look at the strength of schedule across college football, it is no surprise that the SEC leads the way in terms of the toughest slates. After all, iron sharpens iron.

Recently, ESPN released the first Football Power Index of the 2024 offseason. We break down some of the data from the schedules to determine which conferences have it harder than others. The Big 12 checks in last with an average ranking of 57.1.

Strength of Schedule average position

Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

We break down the average strength of schedule based on ESPN’s Football Power Index. The top two conferences in the sport lead the way with the toughest schedules.

Conference Avg SOS Highest Lowest
ACC 49.8 9 (Georgia Tech) 82 (Syracuse)
Big 12 57.1 36 (West Virginia) 77 (Kansas)
Big Ten 28.9 11 (Purdue) 78 (Rutgers)
SEC 12.0 1 (Florida) 29 (Missouri)

It isn’t much of a surprise to see the SEC and Big Ten at the top of the rankings given the conferences are loaded with talent after the latest round of realignment. The SEC added the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns, while the Big Ten added the Oregon Ducks, UCLA Bruins, USC Trojans, and Washington Huskies. With the SEC considering a nine-game league schedule, expect their rankings to remain among the toughest in college football.

SEC SOS breakdown from hardest to easiest

Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

The SEC’s lowest ranking is No. 29 which is the average of the Big Ten’s strength of schedule. The Football Power Index emphasized the SEC with all but one team in the overall top 50 rankings.

  1. Florida Gators (No. 1 overall)
  2. Mississippi State Bulldogs (No. 2 overall)
  3. Georgia Bulldogs (No. 3 overall)
  4. Kentucky Wildcats (No. 4 overall)
  5. Auburn Tigers (No. 5 overall)
  6. Alabama Crimson Tide (No. 6 overall)
  7. Oklahoma Sooners (No. 7 overall)
  8. Tennessee Volunteers (No. 8 overall)
  9. Texas Longhorns (No. 10 overall)
  10. Vanderbilt Commodores (No. 14 overall)
  11. South Carolina Gamecocks (No. 17 overall)
  12. Texas A&M Aggies (No. 20 overall)
  13. Arkansas Razorbacks (No. 21 overall)
  14. Ole Miss Rebels (No. 22 overall)
  15. LSU Tigers (No. 23 overall)
  16. Missouri Tigers (No. 29 overall)

Bottom 10 easiest schedules in CFB

Brian Bishop-USA TODAY Sports

When it comes to the 2024 college football season, the Group of Five is chasing one of the CFP playoff slots. The highest-ranked G5 champion will get the final conference champion slot. As it sits right now, Liberty might be the best bet with the easiest schedule in FBS according to FPI. Not a single Power Four team landed in the easiest schedules in college football.

  1. Liberty Flames
  2. Florida International Panthers
  3. Central Michigan Chippewas
  4. Toledo Rockets
  5. East Carolina Pirates
  6. Texas State Bobcats
  7. Kennesaw State Owls
  8. Eastern Michigan Eagles
  9. Florida Atlantic Owls
  10. Rice Owls

Where is Alabama football ranked in ESPN’s Football Power index?

Alabama football’s ranking according to ESPN’s Football Power Index may surprise fans. Do you think they are too low or too high?

The 2024 season for the Alabama Crimson Tide football team will be an interesting one. Not only is legendary head coach Nick Saban replaced by former Washington Huskies coach Kalen DeBoer, the SEC welcomes in two new teams and the College Football Playoffs expand to a 12-team format.

With such substantial changes, many wonder whether the Crimson Tide can pick up where it left off last season. Despite not being considered a national title contender for most of the season, Alabama won the SEC Championship over the Georgia Bulldogs and snuck into the CFP, where the eventual national champions, the Michigan Wolverines, got the win in the Rose Bowl.

Where will the Crimson Tide rank to begin the season? We aren’t too sure yet. However, many have tried to predict where Alabama will rank in the preseason Top 25. ESPN, however, has ranked every FBS team based on an algorithm that removes the human aspect of it all. Because of this, some argue it’s more reliable.

The ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) has Georgia ranked as the top team in the nation for the 2024 season, with a rating of 26.8, which is the highest of any team and is 2.3 points higher than the second-highest ranked team, the Oregon Ducks.

Though there are many unknowns about the 2024 Alabama football team, the FPI ranks the Crimson Tide at No. 5 with a rating of 21.9.

The regular season is rapidly approaching, which means the clock is ticking on DeBoer and his coaching staff to put together a team that will contend to win it all, which has become the standard in Tuscaloosa.

Roll Tide Wire will continue to follow Alabama football news as the 2024 offseason progresses.

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ESPN’s FPI gives Saints less than 1% chance to win Super Bowl LIX

ESPN’s Football Power Index gave the New Orleans Saints a less than 1% chance to win Super Bowl LIX inside their own stadium:

We’re saying there’s a chance. Well, ESPN is saying that — ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gave the New Orleans Saints a 0.4% chance of winning Super Bowl LIX, which will be played at the Caesars Superdome in February.

Believe it or not, those aren’t the worst odds around the league. Four teams were given zero chances of bringing home a title, including the division-rival Carolina Panthers. But the Saints did rank 10th-worst in FPI’s forecast, which doesn’t inspire much confidence. That’s a direct reflection of the lack of success they’ve found since Drew Brees retired back in 2021, with neither Sean Payton nor Dennis Allen guiding the Saints back to the playoffs.

The latest FPI predicts the Saints will win 7.7 to 9.3 games, which gives them a 29.5% chance of returning to the postseason for the first time since 2020. Those playoff odds rank 12th-lowest among the 32 teams. Two other NFC South teams have been given better chances of reaching the postseason. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are slightly ahead at 33.6% as reigning division champs, while the Kirk Cousins-led Atlanta Falcons are favored best at 67.4%.

Conversely, this suggests the Saints could end up picking at No. 10 overall in the 2025 NFL draft. That might give them an opportunity to draft a difference-maker at quarterback or another premium position like defensive end or wide receiver. But we don’t even know who will be entering the draft in 2025, much less who may be available at whichever spot the Saints are picking. For now, all the Saints can do is keep their heads down, work hard, and hope their fortunes trend up in 2024.

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Where Alabama football ranks in ESPN’s Football Power Index ahead of SEC Championship

Things are getting interesting entering the SEC Championship!

[autotag]Nick Saban[/autotag] and the Alabama Crimson Tide defeated the Auburn Tigers 27-24 in Week 13 to improve to 11-1 on the season.

Now, it is time to see where Alabama ranks in ESPN’s Football Power Index entering the 2023 SEC Championship.

According to ESPN, FPI is defined as “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.”

Let’s take a look at where Alabama currently stands!

Where Alabama football ranks in ESPN’s Football Power Index entering Week 13

Alabama’s FPI rankings show the Tide to be one of the best teams in the country

[autotag]Nick Saban[/autotag] and the Alabama football team took care of business in the 2023 home finale against Chattanooga by defeating the Mocs 66-10.

Now, it is time to see where Alabama ranks in ESPN’s Football Power Index entering Week 13.

According to ESPN, FPI is defined as “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.”

Let’s take a look at where Alabama currently stands!