Texas FPI ranking accurate, Sooners overrated according to the Oklahoman

One team looks poised for a title run, the other hopes to finish ahead of middling status.

The Football Power Index has been a topic of discussion as the dog days of summer have arrived. The Texas Longhorns are among the top three teams in the country in this computer-generated rankings and No. 2 in the SEC behind SEC-favorite, Georgia Bulldogs.

The only other team to check in ahead of the Burnt Orange is the Oregon Ducks, who had a tremendous offseason adding quarterbacks Dillon Gabriel (Oklahoma) and Dante Moore (UCLA). The team also lured former Texas A&M wideout Evan Stewart to Eugene.

The Longhorns have a projected W-L of 10.0-2.4, while also having the third-best chance to win the College Football Playoff national championship at 11.4%. The top team, Georgia, will travel to Austin for a mid-October showdown at Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium.

When discussing Texas, Justin Martinez believes that their No. 2 FPI ranking is accurate in his projections.

“Texas should adjust well to the SEC with quarterback Quinn Ewers leading the charge,” Martinez wrote. “And even though wide receivers Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell are gone, Alabama’s Isaiah Bond and Houston’s Matthew Golden are now in the mix. Texas’ defense also lost some key contributors, but it reloaded by adding Louisville defensive lineman Jermayne Lole and UTSA linebacker Trey Moore. The Longhorns are set up to compete for an SEC title.”

However, when it came to the Longhorns’ biggest rivals, he was less than impressed where the computers have the Sooners.

“OU has given the keys to sophomore quarterback Jackson Arnold.” Martinez continued, “And while he has a lethal receiver group that features Purdue transfer Deion Burks, he’ll be behind an offensive line that’s made up almost entirely of new pieces. The Sooners will lean on their defense, which boasts returners such as linebacker Danny Stutsman and safety Billy Bowman. But the No. 4 spot is high for a team that’ll likely be closer toward the middle of the pack.”

SEC has toughest schedules, Big 12 has weakest per FPI

Breaking down some of the numbers from the latest FPI.

The SEC is regarded as the best conference in college football and they only added to that strength in realignment. Since 2000, the SEC has claimed 14 titles.

So when you look at the strength of schedule across college football, it is no surprise that the SEC leads the way in terms of the toughest slates. After all, iron sharpens iron.

Recently, ESPN released the first Football Power Index of the 2024 offseason. We break down some of the data from the schedules to determine which conferences have it harder than others. The Big 12 checks in last with an average ranking of 57.1.

Strength of Schedule average position

Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

We break down the average strength of schedule based on ESPN’s Football Power Index. The top two conferences in the sport lead the way with the toughest schedules.

Conference Avg SOS Highest Lowest
ACC 49.8 9 (Georgia Tech) 82 (Syracuse)
Big 12 57.1 36 (West Virginia) 77 (Kansas)
Big Ten 28.9 11 (Purdue) 78 (Rutgers)
SEC 12.0 1 (Florida) 29 (Missouri)

It isn’t much of a surprise to see the SEC and Big Ten at the top of the rankings given the conferences are loaded with talent after the latest round of realignment. The SEC added the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns, while the Big Ten added the Oregon Ducks, UCLA Bruins, USC Trojans, and Washington Huskies. With the SEC considering a nine-game league schedule, expect their rankings to remain among the toughest in college football.

SEC SOS breakdown from hardest to easiest

Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

The SEC’s lowest ranking is No. 29 which is the average of the Big Ten’s strength of schedule. The Football Power Index emphasized the SEC with all but one team in the overall top 50 rankings.

  1. Florida Gators (No. 1 overall)
  2. Mississippi State Bulldogs (No. 2 overall)
  3. Georgia Bulldogs (No. 3 overall)
  4. Kentucky Wildcats (No. 4 overall)
  5. Auburn Tigers (No. 5 overall)
  6. Alabama Crimson Tide (No. 6 overall)
  7. Oklahoma Sooners (No. 7 overall)
  8. Tennessee Volunteers (No. 8 overall)
  9. Texas Longhorns (No. 10 overall)
  10. Vanderbilt Commodores (No. 14 overall)
  11. South Carolina Gamecocks (No. 17 overall)
  12. Texas A&M Aggies (No. 20 overall)
  13. Arkansas Razorbacks (No. 21 overall)
  14. Ole Miss Rebels (No. 22 overall)
  15. LSU Tigers (No. 23 overall)
  16. Missouri Tigers (No. 29 overall)

Bottom 10 easiest schedules in CFB

Brian Bishop-USA TODAY Sports

When it comes to the 2024 college football season, the Group of Five is chasing one of the CFP playoff slots. The highest-ranked G5 champion will get the final conference champion slot. As it sits right now, Liberty might be the best bet with the easiest schedule in FBS according to FPI. Not a single Power Four team landed in the easiest schedules in college football.

  1. Liberty Flames
  2. Florida International Panthers
  3. Central Michigan Chippewas
  4. Toledo Rockets
  5. East Carolina Pirates
  6. Texas State Bobcats
  7. Kennesaw State Owls
  8. Eastern Michigan Eagles
  9. Florida Atlantic Owls
  10. Rice Owls

Where is Alabama football ranked in ESPN’s Football Power index?

Alabama football’s ranking according to ESPN’s Football Power Index may surprise fans. Do you think they are too low or too high?

The 2024 season for the Alabama Crimson Tide football team will be an interesting one. Not only is legendary head coach Nick Saban replaced by former Washington Huskies coach Kalen DeBoer, the SEC welcomes in two new teams and the College Football Playoffs expand to a 12-team format.

With such substantial changes, many wonder whether the Crimson Tide can pick up where it left off last season. Despite not being considered a national title contender for most of the season, Alabama won the SEC Championship over the Georgia Bulldogs and snuck into the CFP, where the eventual national champions, the Michigan Wolverines, got the win in the Rose Bowl.

Where will the Crimson Tide rank to begin the season? We aren’t too sure yet. However, many have tried to predict where Alabama will rank in the preseason Top 25. ESPN, however, has ranked every FBS team based on an algorithm that removes the human aspect of it all. Because of this, some argue it’s more reliable.

The ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) has Georgia ranked as the top team in the nation for the 2024 season, with a rating of 26.8, which is the highest of any team and is 2.3 points higher than the second-highest ranked team, the Oregon Ducks.

Though there are many unknowns about the 2024 Alabama football team, the FPI ranks the Crimson Tide at No. 5 with a rating of 21.9.

The regular season is rapidly approaching, which means the clock is ticking on DeBoer and his coaching staff to put together a team that will contend to win it all, which has become the standard in Tuscaloosa.

Roll Tide Wire will continue to follow Alabama football news as the 2024 offseason progresses.

Contact/Follow us @RollTideWire on X, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Alabama news, notes and opinion. You can also follow AJ Spurr on X @SpurrFM. 

ESPN’s FPI gives Saints less than 1% chance to win Super Bowl LIX

ESPN’s Football Power Index gave the New Orleans Saints a less than 1% chance to win Super Bowl LIX inside their own stadium:

We’re saying there’s a chance. Well, ESPN is saying that — ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gave the New Orleans Saints a 0.4% chance of winning Super Bowl LIX, which will be played at the Caesars Superdome in February.

Believe it or not, those aren’t the worst odds around the league. Four teams were given zero chances of bringing home a title, including the division-rival Carolina Panthers. But the Saints did rank 10th-worst in FPI’s forecast, which doesn’t inspire much confidence. That’s a direct reflection of the lack of success they’ve found since Drew Brees retired back in 2021, with neither Sean Payton nor Dennis Allen guiding the Saints back to the playoffs.

The latest FPI predicts the Saints will win 7.7 to 9.3 games, which gives them a 29.5% chance of returning to the postseason for the first time since 2020. Those playoff odds rank 12th-lowest among the 32 teams. Two other NFC South teams have been given better chances of reaching the postseason. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are slightly ahead at 33.6% as reigning division champs, while the Kirk Cousins-led Atlanta Falcons are favored best at 67.4%.

Conversely, this suggests the Saints could end up picking at No. 10 overall in the 2025 NFL draft. That might give them an opportunity to draft a difference-maker at quarterback or another premium position like defensive end or wide receiver. But we don’t even know who will be entering the draft in 2025, much less who may be available at whichever spot the Saints are picking. For now, all the Saints can do is keep their heads down, work hard, and hope their fortunes trend up in 2024.

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Where Alabama football ranks in ESPN’s Football Power Index ahead of SEC Championship

Things are getting interesting entering the SEC Championship!

[autotag]Nick Saban[/autotag] and the Alabama Crimson Tide defeated the Auburn Tigers 27-24 in Week 13 to improve to 11-1 on the season.

Now, it is time to see where Alabama ranks in ESPN’s Football Power Index entering the 2023 SEC Championship.

According to ESPN, FPI is defined as “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.”

Let’s take a look at where Alabama currently stands!

Where Alabama football ranks in ESPN’s Football Power Index entering Week 13

Alabama’s FPI rankings show the Tide to be one of the best teams in the country

[autotag]Nick Saban[/autotag] and the Alabama football team took care of business in the 2023 home finale against Chattanooga by defeating the Mocs 66-10.

Now, it is time to see where Alabama ranks in ESPN’s Football Power Index entering Week 13.

According to ESPN, FPI is defined as “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.”

Let’s take a look at where Alabama currently stands!

LSU sits just outside of top 10 in ESPN’s Football Power Index after win over Florida

The Tigers fell out of the top 10 in ESPN’s FPI despite a shootout win over rival Florida.

LSU delivered one of the most impressive offensive performances we’ve seen in a while on Saturday, exceeding 700 total yards of offense as [autotag]Jayden Daniels[/autotag] became the first player in FBS history to throw for more than 350 yards and rush for over 200 in the same game.

Unfortunately, the game was tighter than it should have been thanks to another rough outing from the Tigers defense, and after ranking in the top 10 of ESPN’s Football Power Index heading into the weekend, they saw a slight drop and now sit just outside the top 10 entering Week 12.

Here’s how the full top 25 looks in the ESPN FPI as LSU prepares to host Georgia State on Saturday night.

Where Alabama football ranks in ESPN’s Football Power Index entering Week 12

Alabama’s FPI rankings prove they are among the best in college football

[autotag]Nick Saban[/autotag] and the Alabama football team took care of business on the road against Kentucky in Week 11 with a 49-21 win over the Wildcats.

Now, it is time to see where Alabama ranks in ESPN’s Football Power Index entering Week 12.

According to ESPN, FPI is defined as “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.”

Let’s take a look at where Alabama currently stands!

LSU remains in top 10 of ESPN’s Football Power Index despite Alabama loss

ESPN’s FPI remains pretty high on the Tigers despite recent struggles.

LSU’s hopes of raising the ceiling in Year 2 under [autotag]Brian Kelly[/autotag] essentially ended with Saturday night’s 42-28 loss to Alabama.

Instead of reaching the College Football Playoff or New Year’s Six, the Tigers’ hopes of repeating as SEC West champions have all but ended, and they now need to win out if they want to even get back to the 10-win mark.

In spite of this team’s struggles, ESPN’s Football Power Index remains surprisingly high on it. The 6-3 Tigers remain in the top 10 and are one of three teams with a trio of losses that rank in the top 15.

Here’s how the full top 25 breaks down as we enter Week 11.

Chiefs are the best team in the NFL, according to ESPN Analytics

ESPN Analytics ranked the #Chiefs as the NFL’s best team after Kansas City’s Week 9 win over the Miami #Dolphins in Frankfurt, Germany.

The Kansas City Chiefs Week 9 win over the Miami Dolphins in Frankfurt, Germany cemented their spot as the AFC’s top team in terms of playoff seeding, but the quants at ESPN Analytics don’t seem to think their dominance ends at the conference level.

According to ESPN’s football power index, Kansas City hosts the best team in the NFL, with two AFC rivals taking second and third place through nine games.

This ranking may surprise some fans who watched the Chiefs’ frustrating losses to the Detroit Lions and Denver Broncos earlier in the season, but after taking down the fifth-best team on the list, Kansas City certainly deserved a top spot.

The Chiefs will have their chance to beat the seventh-ranked team, the Philadelphia Eagles, after their bye week in a Super Bowl LVII rematch at Arrowhead Stadium.

If Kansas City emerges victorious against Philadelphia in Week 11, expect the Chiefs to remain atop the FPI rankings until another team takes them down later in the season.

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