Tag: Fantasy Football

Rookie Rundown: RB J.K. Dobbins, Ohio State

The versatile Dobbins excelled in 2019 vs. the toughest competition to enjoy a banner year. How does he fit into fantasy football plans?

(Mark J. Rebilas, USA TODAY Sports)

Ohio State running back J.K. Dobbins wrapped up his three-year collegiate stint with a declaration to the 2020 NFL Draft. In a lead-up to the selection process that has been anything but traditional, after citing an ankle injury as the reason he wouldn’t run at the scouting combine, Dobbins did not get to run a 40-yard dash at pro day March 25, because there wasn’t one. He has previously been timed at 4.45 seconds, so speed isn’t a concern.

Height: 5-foot-9 1/2
Weight: 209 pounds
40 time: N/A

Dobbins was a starter as a true freshman after being a four-star recruit coming off of a broken leg in his first game as a high school senior — that speaks (yells?) volumes about how highly regarded he was coming into the NCAA ranks.

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He was a second-team All-Big Ten honoree in his freshman and sophomore seasons, earning first-team recognition after the 2019 season. Dobbins also was a second-team All-American and first-team all-conference selection for his standout ’19 season.

Table: J.K. Dobbins’ NCAA stats (2017-19)

Year
Team
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Long
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
2017
Ohio State
194
1,403
7.2
7
77
22
135
6.1
1
2018
Ohio State
230
1,053
4.6
10
42
26
263
10.1
2
2019
Ohio State
301
2,003
6.7
21
68
23
247
10.7
2

Dobbins slowed in his sophomore campaign before rebounding in a ridiculous way as a junior. He’s widely regarded as the third-best running back prospect of this year’s class.

Pros

  • Durable — played in all 42 games in his time at OSU, logging 796 offensive touches (18.9/game) — and willing to play through injury
  • Elite production vs. elite competition — scored a touchdown against all six ranked opponents in 2019, finishing with 11 in those games
  • Above-average lateral movement skills and a convincing dead leg
  • Does a tremendous job — it’s really tough to overstate this — of setting up his one-on-one opponents in the open field. It’s arguably his best trait.
  • Dangerous out of the gun and in pro-style formations, suggesting he can fit in a number of offensive designs in the NFL
  • Runs with natural body lean, sense of balance, and a low center of gravity
  • Violent stiff arm that appears game after game on tape
  • Decisive runner whose ability to stick a foot and go is unquestionably NFL-capable
  • Pretty good in pass pro for his size
  • Versatile as a runner and receiver out of the backfield

Cons

  • Average or worse start-stop ability
  • Runs as well as his blocking affords and doesn’t create many plays from nothing
  • His vision isn’t necessarily a negative, but it definitely isn’t a positive — average, at best, and it may appear better than it is due to his non-stop motor. It seems to be more of an asset in the open field than in the box.
  • Lacks a second-gear ability — fast enough to avoid getting caught from behind by most defenders, but there’s no obvious explosive shift vs. the second tier of a defense

Fantasy football outlook

The compact-framed Dobbins does a little bit of everything on the field and is more of a grinder than a game-breaker, but his style of play eventually wears down defenders and promotes an increase in chunk plays. Aside from one horribly timed drop in a bowl game, Dobbins’ receiving skills shouldn’t be questioned, and he can hold up to the rigors of playing all three downs, if needed. In reality, the NFL’s current view on running backs will likely put him into a shared backfield.

He reminds of a blend of several players and is uniquely himself in many ways. One comparison I see on tape is DeAndre Washington, but there’s more north and south in Dobbins’ game. Other comparisons drawn by prognosticators include Doug Martin, Domanick Williams (Davis), Ray Rice and even Mark Ingram … While similarities from all of those guys are present in Dobbins’ game, he’s his own player and is versatile enough to look much different in various offensive concepts.

Since several teams could use a player of his caliber and style, it invites unlikely suitors. Dobbins probably has a third-round grade for most teams but could slip into the second if one scouting department is higher than most on him.

Tampa Bay, Buffalo, Kansas City and the Los Angeles Rams are in need of a running back. KC would be an ideal spot for the long-term value of Dobbins, but he may get buried in the mess of talent around him as a rookie. The Rams and Tampa present the best Year 1 situations in fantasy football. In best-case scenario, he’s an RB2, and in the safest of designations, Dobbins will be bench fodder with the occasional flash on limited handles.

4 Bills players land in PFF’s 150 best fantasy football options

Bills’ Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Devin Singletary land in Pro Football Focus’ top-150 fantasy football players.

The Bills are hoping their 2020 offseason will make a big difference in regard to their offensive output next season.

Buffalo took a big step forward in that department by trading for wide receiver Stefon Diggs already. A move like that has an impact all over the team’s offense, but it also does on fantasy football.

With Diggs’ acquisition, Buffalo’s offense improves, and puts the team up to four players listed in Pro Football Focus‘ fantasy football player rankings recently released following free agency. Here’s that breakdown:

42. Devin Singletary, BUF

46. Stefon Diggs, BUF

76. Josh Allen, BUF

78. John Brown, BUF

Overall, Singletary lands as the 19th ranked running back, a position that’s of the upmost importance in fantasy football. While Allen ranks much further away from Singeltary on the list, quarterbacks are not of the upmost importance in fantasy football. So despite being No. 76 overall, Allen actually ranks as the seventh-most valuable QB per PFF’s rankings. Several of the QBs listed ahead of Allen, such as Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson, are of the dual-threat type of quarterback, like Buffalo’s signal caller.

Naturally as the Bills’ presumed No. 1 target, Diggs out-ranks Brown. But both wideouts could have their fantasy football impacts. Both players are coming off 1,000-plus yard seasons, and Brown did so without Diggs drawing much of the attention in Buffalo’s offense. Now that Brown is the No. 2 guy for the Bills, he could end up being a sneaky-good fantasy football sleeper in 2020.

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Rookie Rundown: QB Justin Herbert, Oregon

Dissecting what Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert brings to the table.

(Gary A. Vasquez, USA TODAY Sports)

Oregon Ducks quarterback Justin Herbert enters the 2020 NFL Draft as one of the top prospects, regardless of position. He started seven games as a freshman in 2016 and never looked back, overcoming injury-caused adversity created in 2017 with a strong finish to his time as a Duck.

A locally grown talent, Oregon’s star passer concluded his collegiate career with a pair of All-Pac-12 honorable mentions and Academic All-American awards during each his junior and senior seasons.

Height: 6-foot-6
Weight: 236 pounds
40 time: 4.68 seconds

Table: Justin Herbert NCAA stats (2016-19)

Year
Team
Comp
Att
%
Yds
Avg
TD
INT
ATT
YDS
TD
2016
Oregon
162
255
63.5
1,936
7.6
19
4
58
161
2
2017
Oregon
139
206
67.5
1,983
9.6
15
5
44
183
5
2018
Oregon
240
404
59.4
3,151
7.8
29
8
71
166
2
2019
Oregon
286
428
66.8
3,471
8.1
32
6
58
50
4

Herbert is expected to be a top-10 draft pick in April’s selection process, and several teams make plenty of sense. Don’t be surprised to hear his name called for the Las Vegas Raiders (12th) if he slides a little. The Miami Dolphins (5th) and Los Angeles Chargers (6th) are the most likely suitors, depending upon how it shakes out with LSU QB Joe Burrow (expected to go No. 1) and Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa (could go No. 2).

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Unless an unlikely team trades into the first 10 or so picks, Herbert’s landing spots are somewhat limited based on necessity, but there always will be coaches interested in grooming a quarterback behind a veteran for a year. In the event Herbert falls past 12th, it could get interesting as teams will look to position via trade to draft him.

Pros

  • Gets through progressions efficiently and is comfortable taking a checkdown — displays controlled aggression in his willingness to risk it down the field … pro-grade out of the boxing this area
  • Quite possibly the strongest arm in college football in 2019, but it doesn’t come at the sacrifice of putting a softer touch when needed.
  • Huge frame that allows him to hold his platform and deliver an accurate ball while taking a hit
  • Tremendous pocket awareness fueled by lively feet (this can work against him, see below)
  • Athletic enough to do damage with his legs but extremely adept at creating lanes with subtle movement in the pocket
  • Displays accuracy on the move to either direction
  • Clean throwing motion and delivers a very catchable ball on all three levels
  • Throws open targets with anticipatory awareness and a keen understanding of defensive coverage.
  • Looks off defenders and holds his eyes down the seam — high football IQ illustrated by his attempts-to-interception ratio and is readily apparent on film.

Cons

  • So many of his big plays in 2019 came via wide-open receivers thanks to a combination of coverage breakdowns and route concepts that created exaggerated separation at the collegiate level.
  • Needs to show he can consistently work from under center and develop timing-based dropbacks connections with his targets.
  • Tends to rotate or flip the ball in his hands while dropping back — minor but could lead to timing and fumbling issues as a pro with the rest of the game around him being so much faster.
  • The footwork is a mixed bag — when it is good, it’s really impressive, but Herbert goes through swings of playing too much on his toes, wasting a step, and not utilizing his platform to maximize drive. This is partly a product of having such a strong arm and the pitter-patter footwork is correctable.
  • Missed five games in 2017 with a broken collarbone

Fantasy football outlook

Say Herbert lands in Miami, there’s Ryan Fitzpatrick likely ahead of him for at least part of the season. Then there’s the obvious lack of talent around him to be concerned with, so it wouldn’t be an ideal spot for Year 1 fantasy returns.

In Las Vegas, the situation is similar. Derek Carr will start as long as he is getting the job done, and that could span the duration of the season.

The Chargers would give Herbert the best chance of making an immediate contribution in fantasy, and it wouldn’t be a monumental task to unseat Tyrod Taylor as the presumed starter.

Any which way one slices this situation, Herbert is unlikely to start from the onset of the season, and coming from a spread offense into the NFL takes time, even in today’s league that relies less on classic drop-back passing.

While Herbert’s game reminds of a young Ben Roethlisberger, his fantasy football trajectory could follow a similar path whenever Herbert actually gets a chance to take off with a full offseason of starter’s work. Since that appears to be 2021, he’s undraftable in all single-year setups until further notice.

Jack Doyle’s fantasy football outlook with QB Philip Rivers

Can Jack Doyle be a stable option in fantasy football?

The Indianapolis Colts brought in quarterback Philip Rivers on a one-year deal hoping the passing offense will improve upon his arrival. One player that might benefit from that switch is tight end Jack Doyle.

Though he’s not an elite option in the tight end landscape, Doyle should have plenty of relevancy in the fantasy football community as a late-round target even if the Colts wind up drafting a tight end at some point in April.

Target share

The Colts passing offense wasn’t good in 2019. We know that. But Doyle’s presence was still felt and his target share in the offense reflects that he still holds a big role in the passing game.

With an upgrade at quarterback, the passing game should be better for Doyle and the rest of the offense. He was tied for the team lead in targets (72) and his 14.8% target share was 10th in the NFL among tight ends, per The Fantasy Footballers.

With Eric Ebron out of the picture and no clear WR2 in the offense yet, Doyle should continue to be featured in the passing game heavily.

Trustworthy target

We know that Rivers likes to throw the ball downfield when he has the chance, but he’s also smart enough to know when the shorter play is better. Doyle thrives on being a short-range target as 46 of his 72 targets were 10 yards or fewer, per Pro Football Focus.

Typically working in the middle of the field, Doyle will be a trustworthy safety valve. He has reliable hands and is savvy enough to find subtle ways to gain separation. The target share will be there, and Doyle should be a player that gains the Trust of Rivers quickly.

Limited upside

Because Doyle isn’t a superb athlete or one that can break off a big play at any moment, his upside is limited. The tight end landscape is such a crapshoot that many fantasy managers prefer to stick with an upside play over a safer option like Doyle.

Even in his best year, Doyle is going to be a TE6–10. He doesn’t have the upside to be a top-5 fantasy tight end. But he’s a solid late-round target if you’re looking for a stable piece at tight end while pairing him with a potential upside play.

Conclusion

No one is excited when looking at Doyle in their lineup. His upside is limited, which deters many fantasy managers, but he can provide a stable option at a volatile position.

He’s likely to be undrafted or go as a late-round target, but his target share in the offense and his pairing with Rivers will have benefits in terms of fantasy production when the season rolls around.

Doyle should be viewed right now as a weekly streamer with some touchdown upside.

3 Colts among PFF’s top 150 fantasy football rankings

PFF’s post-free agency rankings feature 3 Colts.

With the big wave of free agency having past, fantasy football managers are dissecting the moves made to better formulate a plan ahead of the 2020 NFL draft.

Though a lot is going to change when the big even arrives at the end of April, there are likely to be some relevant players from the Colts’ sideline in 2020. It was a rough season in 2019, but there is reason to be optimistic about a bounce-back from the offense.

In their post-free agency rankings for fantasy football, Pro Football Focus had three Colts listed in the top 150.

55. WR T.Y. Hilton

Hilton’s stock is a little low because of the injuries he’s had to play through over the past two seasons. While he was still able to produce in 2018 despite dealing with multiple ankle injuries, he couldn’t do so in 2019. Mostly dealing with a calf strain, Hilton wasn’t much for fantasy managers.

However, there is optimism. As long as Hilton stays healthy, he has a chance to regain his form as a solid WR2 with Philip Rivers under center. A better passing attack that is funneled through Hilton should lead to him being a potential value in upcoming drafts.

57. RB Marlon Mack

For the first time in his career, Mack surpassed the 1,000-yard mark in 2019. He was a steady force in the backfield taking 247 carries for 1,091 yards and eight touchdowns. Leading the backfield once again, Mack is eager to prove he deserves another contract.

The 23-year-old is in the final year of his rookie contract and while it remains to be seen how badly the Colts want to get a deal done, Mack is in line to have another solid season behind a stout offensive line and an offense in general that should improve from last season.

144. TE Jack Doyle

Ol’ reliable. Doyle will never get the love he deserves because he’s not an exciting pass catcher. However, he gets the job done and has been a reliable short/intermediate target for years. With Rivers joining Indy, nothing about that should change a whole lot.

Rivers has long dealt with strong options at tight end and while Doyle isn’t the receiving threats that Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry are, he will have enough of a target share to be a late-round value and weekly streamer throughout the 2020 season.

Kevin Hickey joins Underscore podcast to talk Colts, fantasy football

Listen as Colts Wire editor Kevin Hickey joins the Underscore podcast to talk Indianapolis Colts and fantasy football.

As the 2020 offseason continues to get underway, fantasy football managers are doing what they can to prepare for another campaign. With the Indianapolis Colts projected to have a stronger offense, more players have the chance to be relevant.

Colts Wire editor Kevin Hickey joined Andrew Erickson of Gridiron Experts on the Underscore podcast to talk all things fantasy football and the Colts offense in general heading into the 2020 season.

Listen in as they preview the 2020 season and how the Colts look from a fantasy football perspective.

Can T.Y. Hilton return to fantasy glory with Philip Rivers?

T.Y. Hilton could bounce back with Philip Rivers.

The Indianapolis Colts brought in quarterback Philip Rivers, which should bring about better results for fantasy football. This is especially true for wide receiver T.Y. Hilton.

Having dealt with injuries over the last two seasons, Hilton hasn’t been able to keep up with being a WR1 (top-12). His 2019 season was riddled with injuries, and the lack of a stable passing attack really downed the entire offense from a fantasy perspective.

But now Hilton is (hopefully) healthy and he has a quarterback willing to throw the ball downfield. Those two aspects alone won’t bring him into the WR1 tier, but it does give reason for optimism when targeting him for the 2020 season.

Target share

There is no denying Hilton will be the alpha in the wide receiver room. When healthy, the passing offense runs through him and that’s not going to change with Rivers under center. If anything, Hilton being the No. 1 should boost his opportunity with Rivers.

Throughout his career, Rivers has had some solid WR1s. Lately, it has been in the form of Keenan Allen. Despite strong weapons being present in the Chargers offense, Allen has held a strong presence in terms of target share.

In 2019, Keenan Allen had 25.9% target share of the offense, good for seventh-highest in the NFL. He also was responsible for 53.9% of Chargers wide receiver fantasy points, which was good for third-most in the NFL—per the Fantasy Footballers.

Hilton’s numbers are a bit skewed having played only 10 games this season. His total target share numbers come out to be a 14% target share in the offense while being responsible for 29% of the team’s wide receiver fantasy points.

However, in games that Hilton played, he held a 22.9% target share. Having that in a bad passing offense with an inconsistent passer in Brissett means there is a lot of room for growth to be one of the top target shareholders in the NFL.

Deep passing return?

To say the Cotls didn’t throw downfield in 2019 is an understatement. Hilton saw just 29 targets on throws that traveled more than 10 yards in the air. With Rivers, that shouldn’t be a problem.

Rivers finished the 2019 season with the third-most intended air-yards and the 12th-highest average depth of target. Compare that to Brissett, who was 21st and 23rd respectively in those categories.

Any help?

Outside of Hilton, there aren’t a lot of strong options in the passing game for the Colts. There is certainly promise and upside but Hilton is a sure thing. It wouldn’t be a shock at all to see Rivers and Hilton get on the same page quickly given the lack of high-end talent in the passing game.

There’s upside with Nyheim Hines, who could be a special fantasy asset in 2020. There’s also some upside with Parris Campbell if he can stay healthy. However, no one will bring the juice like Hilton if he’s able to stay healthy. And that lack of help around him will secure him furthermore as the alpha in the offense.

Conclusion

Hilton’s days as a locked and loaded WR1 are probably behind him. He’s still an electric talent capable of carrying a passing offense, but his injury history has caught up to him recently.

That said, the addition of Rivers will do wonders for Hilton’s fantasy outlook. He might not be a WR1 but given his skill set, target share and overall role in the offense, Ghost should return to a solid WR2 tier while having WR1 upside in certain weeks.

John Elway, Vic Fangio comment on Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay sharing touches

Which Broncos running back will be a better option in fantasy football — Melvin Gordon or Phillip Lindsay?

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When the Broncos agreed to terms with free agent Melvin Gordon, some fans viewed it as a perplexing decision — why would the team sign a Pro Bowl running back when a Pro Bowl running back (Phillip Lindsay) was already on the roster?

Denver coach Vic Fangio and general manager John Elway both addressed that question during an interview with Alexis Perry of the Broncos’ official website on Wednesday.

“Exactly how that will look remains to be seen,” Fangio said. “But it’s pretty common right now in the NFL that most teams have two backs that do a bulk of the ball-carrying or playing the running back position, divvying up the third-down responsibilities.

“So I don’t see it as a problem getting enough work for both of them. We’re happy to have them both.”

Elway seemingly implied that Gordon will improve the team’s passing game as a receiver out of the backfield. Since entering the league in 2015, Gordon has caught 224 passes for 1,873 yards and 11 touchdowns. Lindsay had just 35 receptions for 196 yards and no receiving touchdowns in 2019.

“[Gordon has] scored a lot of touchdowns and has caught the football a ton,” Elway said. “So we feel like with him — with Melvin as well as Phillip — that we’ve got a great one-two punch, and we’ll only get better in the backfield.”

For fantasy purposes, it’s probably wise to consider Gordon the team’s starter with RB2 upside. Lindsay will likely be best used as a flex option.

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Robby Anderson hits a small jackpot with Panthers, fantasy owners left scratching

Anderson heads to the Carolina Panthers, but did he destroy his fantasy football value with one stroke of a pen?

(Brad Penner, USA TODAY Sports)

What are fantasy football owners getting out of adding former New York Jets wide receiver Robby Anderson now that he is a member of the Carolina Panthers after inking a two-year, $20 million deal?

The answer is summed up in a few words: Streaky playmaker.

Why do we know this? Three straight seasons of consistent year-end figures that show a trend of week-to-week ebbs and flows like few others.

Table: Robby Anderson’s career stats (2016-19)

Season
Team
G
Targ
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
Att
Yds
TD
FanPts
FanPts/G
2016
NYJ
14
78
42
587
14.0
2
3
42
0
116.9
8.4
2017
NYJ
16
114
63
941
14.9
7
3
9
0
200.0
12.5
2018
NYJ
14
94
50
752
15.0
6
2
-8
0
160.4
11.5
2019
NYJ
16
96
52
779
15.0
5
1
4
0
160.3
10.0

The scoring used in these tables is non-PPR — his optimal setting for fantasy returns. The takeaway should be regardless of the system or quarterback, the core metrics of Anderson’s game do not change to any notable degree. His catch-to-touchdown ratio hasn’t varied more than two grabs in the last three years, and Anderson’s yards-per-reception average hasn’t wavered enough to speak of since he entered the league.

When looking at the yearlong results on a weekly basis, we see massive swings in production.

Table: Robby Anderson’s 2019 per-game statistics

Wk
Opp
Targ
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
Att
Yds
TD
FanPts
1
BUF
7
3
23
7.7
0
0
0
0
5.3
2
CLE
6
4
81
20.3
0
0
0
0
12.1
3
at NE
5
3
11
3.7
0
0
0
0
4.1
5
at PHI
3
1
16
16
0
0
0
0
2.6
6
DAL
8
5
125
25
1
0
0
0
23.5
7
NE
8
1
10
10
0
0
0
0
2.0
8
at JAC
6
4
43
10.8
0
0
0
0
8.3
9
at MIA
4
2
33
16.5
0
0
0
0
5.3
10
NYG
3
1
11
11
0
0
0
0
2.1
11
at WAS
3
1
6
6.0
1
0
0
0
7.6
12
OAK
5
4
86
21.5
1
0
0
0
18.6
13
at CIN
10
7
101
14.4
0
0
0
0
17.1
14
MIA
11
7
117
16.7
1
1
4
0
25.1
15
at BAL
6
4
66
16.5
0
0
0
0
10.6
16
PIT
4
2
32
16
1
0
0
0
11.2
17
at BUF
7
3
18
6.0
0
0
0
0
4.8
  • All five scores came in different games, which is good for fantasy owners in weekly, head-to-head leagues.
  • Unfortunately, 80 percent of them came in a five-games span.
  • Since Week 12, he closed out the year strong in all but the finale, and it wasn’t for a lack of targets in that one.

Table: Robby Anderson’s 2018 per-game statistics

Wk
Opp
Targ
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
Att
Yds
TD
FanPts
1
at DET
1
1
41
41
1
1
-9
0
10.2
2
MIA
5
3
27
9.0
0
0
0
0
5.7
3
at CLE
4
2
22
11
0
0
0
0
4.2
4
at JAC
6
2
18
9
0
0
0
0
3.8
5
DEN
5
3
123
41
2
0
0
0
27.3
6
IND
5
3
39
13
0
0
0
0
6.9
7
MIN
10
3
44
14.7
0
0
0
0
7.4
9
at MIA
7
4
32
8.0
0
1
1
0
7.3
12
NE
5
2
22
11
0
0
0
0
4.2
13
at TEN
7
4
48
12
0
0
0
0
8.8
14
at BUF
7
4
76
19
1
0
0
0
17.6
15
HOU
11
7
96
13.7
1
0
0
0
22.6
16
GB
13
9
140
15.6
1
0
0
0
29.0
17
at NE
8
3
24
8.0
0
0
0
0
5.4
  • Six touchdowns and half came in three consecutive games late in the year.
  • One score over the first month, and it came on a lone grab.
  • Struggled to exploit top-level competition most of the time.

Table: Robby Anderson’s 2017 per-game statistics

Wk
Opp
Targ
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
Att
Yds
TD
FanPts
1
at BUF
8
4
22
5.5
0
0
0
0
6.2
2
at OAK
4
2
28
14.0
0
0
0
0
4.8
3
MIA
6
3
95
31.7
1
0
0
0
18.5
4
JAC
6
3
59
19.7
0
0
0
0
8.9
5
at CLE
5
2
16
8.0
0
0
0
0
3.6
6
NE
12
4
76
19
0
0
0
0
11.6
7
at MIA
5
3
35
11.7
1
0
0
0
12.5
8
ATL
6
6
104
17.3
1
1
1
0
22.5
9
BUF
5
4
48
12
1
0
0
0
14.8
10
at TB
7
4
85
21.3
1
0
0
0
18.5
12
CAR
10
6
146
24.3
2
0
0
0
32.6
13
KC
12
8
107
13.4
0
1
7
0
19.4
14
at DEN
6
3
27
9.0
0
0
0
0
5.7
15
at NO
12
5
40
8.0
0
0
0
0
9.0
16
LAC
7
5
51
10.2
0
0
0
0
10.1
17
at NE
3
1
2
2.0
0
1
1
0
1.3
  • Unlike the two more recent seasons, Anderson didn’t close out strong in 2017. But he also didn’t start hot, finding the end zone only once in the first six outings.
  • He did, however, score six times in a five-game span from Week 7-12. The Jets were on bye in Week 11.
  • Anderson averaged just 3.7 catches in the 10 games without a score that year.

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Obviously more goes into a player’s value than his talents and past. The problem here is even if one overlooks Anderson’s demonstrable traits as a football player, he enters a lousy situation to achieve his potential from a statistical perspective.

In Carolina, he’ll catch passes from a game manager in Teddy Bridgewater and have to fight for targets in a moderate-volume passing attack with reception-hog D.J. Moore and do-all wideout Curtis Samuel. We haven’t even addressed that guy in the backfield with 107-plus catches in consecutive seasons…

Going one step further, a rookie head coach and first-time offensive coordinator shouldn’t get the benefit of the doubt 99 percent of the time, and this isn’t the one that falls in that 1 percentile.

Fantasy football takeaway

Few receivers can take a football anywhere on the field and turn it into six points in the way Anderson is capable of doing, but players need more tricks in the bag than “go deep” to become a multifaceted fantasy contributor.

It is far more likely that we’ve seen his ceiling already when compared to what to expect in Carolina. We also may know his floor to be a risk-reward matchup-based, WR3/flex play. But all of that may come with a not so obvious trapdoor in Carolina’s offense, and he realistically could be facing a ceiling somewhere in that flex range if consistency is on your radar — and it needs to be.

As mentioned, his value is at its peak in non-PPR leagues. To Anderson’s credit, he appears to have cleaned up his off-the-field antics, so at least that is going for him.

Fantasy footballers will overreact to Emmanuel Sanders joining Saints

Despite an upgrade at quarterback, Sanders still offers plenty of concerns after signing with the Saints.

Fresh off of his 33rd birthday, free-agent wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders has agreed to terms with the New Orleans Saints, and fantasy footballers should be guardedly optimistic. In the last two years, Sanders has rebounded impressively from a torn Achilles tendon and entered what likely will be his last meaningful shot at free agency.

The San Francisco 49ers traded for Sanders after Week 7 and he made an immediate impact, scoring in his first two games. He would play 17 games thanks to being traded before Denver’s and after San Fran’s bye week. The final eight games with the Niners would result in just one touchdown scored, however.

Sanders still looked fresh by the end of the year, even into the Super Bowl. We could be talking about a different team hoisting the Lombardi Trophy if Jimmy Garoppolo made a better throw, but that’s irrelevant beyond illustrating how much a precise difference in timing can wipe six points off of the board and out of the old fantasy box score. Either way, Sanders still was motoring into February.

Familiar problems?

Sanders going to the Saints creates a whiff of uncertainty for his fantasy football value. The main reason is the greater potential for erratic play or inconsistent success. There are so many mouths to feed in this passing game, plus the Saints will remain committed to running the ball. Michael Thomas, Jared Cook and Alvin Kamara all can and often will come ahead of Sanders in the pecking order of a randomly chosen play. Toss in Tre’Quan Smith and even touches lost to Taysom Hill … This is a crowded offense if anyone is expecting volume from Sanders.

No one wants to think the worst about someone as remarkable as Drew Brees, but the conclusion of the runway is nearing, and who is to say 2020 won’t end poorly for the 41-year-old? Last year, he missed five games with a thumb injury, albeit kind of freaky in nature. The point being, don’t lose sight of Brees being old, and Father Time being undefeated.

Thomas is going to feast as he does, and Sanders will have to do more with less — which isn’t too much different than his time in San Fran. The offense worked within the confines of a run-heavy, three-headed backfield that passed when the situation called for it. There was an ascending rookie in Deebo Samuel taking touches as the year progressed, and a dominant tight end in George Kittle rarely far from the football. Quarterback drop-off aside, the 49ers also limited Sanders’ looks but for different reasons.

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So where does that leave us? Sanders averaged eight targets a game in 2019 over two rosters. That was a fraction less than his 12-game average for 2018 while exclusively in Denver (8.12/game). Sanders saw only 4.7 targets per contest in his entire time with the 49ers. Averaging five looks a week in New Orleans is going to be done with plenty of peaks and valleys along the way.

Some game plans will call for Thomas to take over the show, and Kamara will do this thing in others. The best hope for Sanders is a renewed penchant for finding the end zone, like he has done just one lonely time in his NFL career. He caught nine TDs in 2014, but it took 101 total catches on nearly nine targets an outing. This time, he’ll need to be insanely efficient, and we just haven’t see it in his career.

Fantasy football outlook

Sanders is a flex option in PPR leagues, and gamers looking to invest in standard scoring can treat him as a backup or borderline flex, but only if three other wideouts are required starters.

Due to a lack of consistently reliable involvement, a history of being allergic-adjacent to the end zone, and the reality that he is a 33-year-old receiver barely two years removed from a devastating injury, just how much mediocre does one fantasy football option need to be before gamers draft him accordingly. There’s a strong probability Sanders will get overvalued by someone in your league, and there’s an even better chance he will not return worthwhile fantasy stats for such an investment. Understand the pitfalls before committing too much draft capital.