fantasy football player prop bets – Page 2

NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Week 11

Prop bets are a fine way to blend fantasy skills and gambling.

As the playoff push begins, our focus this week is on players from teams that are in the fight to keep their playoff hopes alive or cement their playoff positioning. These five we feel give you a good chance of heading to the pay window early and often.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Nov. 19 at 6:15 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

Hands off Jimmy! Don’t Touch Jimmy!

The passing yardage Over/Under for San Francisco 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo seems deceivingly low (245.5 yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). However, the Niners are who they are – a run-first team that asks Jimmy G to manage the game. In the eight games he has played, he has thrown 30 or fewer times in six of them. He simply doesn’t get the opportunity that often the sling the ball around the yard. The 49ers should be able to handle the Jacksonville Jaguars and, if they get a big lead, will take the air out of the ball. Take the Under (-114).

Don’t Know You from Adam

In his last five full games against the Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen has 75 or more receiving yards in four them and 110 or more in three of those. His Over/Under for receiving yards is quite low (58.5 yards at -118 Over, -110 Under). The Packers are known for playing man coverage but are likely going to roll a safety on Justin Jefferson, which will leave Thielen one-on-one downfield. A couple of splash plays will make reaching that number a lot easier and the opportunities will be there. Take the Over (-118).

Baby You Can Drive My Carr

Las Vegas Raiders QB Derek Carr has quietly been posting some eye-popping passing yardage numbers, which helps explain why his Over/Under this week against Cincinnati is so high (282.5 yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). This is a combo platter bet in my view. The Raiders are run-first offense, and if that keeps working, the Raiders will run 30 times or more. The Cincinnati Bengals defense has struggled the last couple of games and need to make a statement to regain steam. The only way I see this one going Over is if Cincinnati gets a double-digit lead early and the Raiders have to throw 40 times or more. Take the Under (-114).

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Hail to the Chief

The problem teams have scouting out Kansas City is which weapon do they double – Travis Kelce or Tyreek Hill? They can’t double both. It’s rare this season when both Kelce and Hill blow up, but one of them does each game. The Dallas Cowboys love to blitz their linebackers and that lends itself to quick passes to the vacated spot to Kelce. His Over/Under for receptions is high (6.5 at +100 Over, -130 Under). The clear indication here is that the thought will be that Kelce can hit seven receptions. I’m not saying he’s going to hit 100 yards, but this game could be a 34-31 haymaker exchange and Patrick Mahomes may throw 40-50 times. He if does, at least a dozen of those will come Kelce’s way, and I like his chances of catching seven or more of those. Take the Over (+100).

What Can Brown Do for You?

Tennessee Titans WR A.J. Brown has owned the Houston Texans. In four games, he has caught 27 passes and topped 110 yards in three of them – all with Derrick Henry hogging up most of the snaps in the ground game. Houston is awful and doesn’t have overly physical corners. Brown’s Over/Under for receptions is manageable (5.5 at -112 Over, -115 Under). The key to this one is target share. Brown has been targeted nine or more times in four of the last five games. He is adept at crossing routes that take advantage of his size, and, without Henry, the Titans offense is going to lean more on Brown to control the game flow. Take the Over (-112).

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NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Week 6

A 5-pack of prop bet payoffs for Week 6.

It’s Week 6 and the NFL is flying high. However, this week, we’re leaning on the “Under” of the “Over/Under.” When you’re playing matchups you go with the best available options, given injuries play a key, but quiet, role in heading to the pay window.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Oct. 15, at 9:15 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

The World According to Jim

Once again, NFL fans are forced to watch Sunday morning football with Jacksonville Jaguars involvement from London. However, James Robinson is stepping into a good spot. His Over/Under total is modest (73.5 yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). Four running backs have hit more than 80 yards – most well more – and that list includes Damien Harris, Peyton Barber and Devin Singletary. J-Rob can’t hit that? Take the Over (-114).

Cut to the Chase

The Detroit Lions have allowed five 100-yard receivers in five games, but all of them have been the grinders who catch seven or eight passes against the lesser defenders. Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase has made a name for himself as a home run hitter, not a 7-8 catch guy. His Over/Under is the highest on the team (75.5 receiving yards at -114 for both). This will be the game that Tyler Boyd or Tee Higgins owners point to as draft justification. Chase may get his deep-ball touchdown, but he will get doubled more times than not. Take the Under (-114).

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Mr. Rodgers’ Neighborhood

Aaron Rodgers has what appears to be an easily reachable Over/Under (259.5 passing yards and -114 for both both). However, while the Chicago Bears offense has been weak and Rodgers gets his mail at Soldier Field (19-2 in his last 21 games), too many things make that number look like a trap. In their last four games, the Bears held Joe Burrow, Baker Mayfield and Derek Carr well under that number. If the Packers get a big lead early, they will take the air out of the ball. I’m never happy about betting against Rodgers ripping the Bears apart (he had eight TDs in two games last year), not this time. Take the Under (-114).

Too Many Cooks

Who would have ever guessed two of the Prop Bet Payday picks would be coming from the AFC South with the two rattiest teams in the league?! Houston’s Brandin Cooks is by far the dominant receiver on the Texans. So much so, Bill Belichick chose to freeze him out last week. His Over/Under against the Colts defense seems suspicious (68.5 receiving yards at -114 for the Over and Under). To date this season, Indy has allowed four 100-yard receivers and they’re the guys you would expect. The Colts should win this one, so Houston will be throwing and why wouldn’t they throw to their main guy? Take the Over (-114).

Keenan and Kelce

The Over/Under for receptions is always a dicey pick. Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce has rewritten the stat sheet for all tight ends moving forward. As a result, his Over/Under is absurd (7.5 receptions at +110 Over, -143 Under). While he is capable of hitting the Over in every game he plays, he got his bell rung badly last week, and asking him to catch eight passes seems a little too steep a challenge. Take the Under (-143).

NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Week 5

Take advantage of these player prop bets for easy money.

In the final week before the bye weeks start limiting your choices, there are several key matchups that should help take you to the pay window as we focus this week just on quarterbacks and receivers and give the running backs the week off.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Oct. 8, at 8:15 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

Hooked on a Thielen

The Minnesota Vikings are playing a Detroit Lions team that is hobbled offensively – their top two running backs, top receiver, and left tackle were all limited in practice. They will struggle to score more than 14 points, which should give Minnesota the ball a lot. Wide receiver Adam Thielen has a modest Over/Under (62.5 yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). Teams have tended to put their top cornerback on Justin Jefferson, which will come home to roost when Thielen takes advantage. Take the Over (-114).

Ben There, Done That

There is a growing belief that the Pittsburgh Steelers may move on from Ben Roethlisberger before the end of this season. He’s averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt and less than 10 yards per completion, which makes his Over/Under (250.5 yards and -114 for both the Over and Under) seem quite high against a Denver Broncos defense that is allowing just 6.1 yards per attempt to opposing QBs. To hit that number, Big Ben may have to complete more than 25 passes. If he drops back 35-40 times against this defense, he will pay the price and make the decision move on easier because the Steelers won’t have a choice. Take the Under (-114).

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Hooray for Hollywood?

The Indianapolis Colts can stop the run, which plays right into Baltimore’s hands on Monday night. So much so that teams are only throwing 27 times a game on average (and that includes Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson and Ryan Tannehill). The Ravens will likely look to run, which will come at the expense of receivers like Marquise Brown, who has a relatively low receptions Over/Under (4.5 receptions at +115 Over, -149 Under). While he likely has at least one big play in him, the Colts are going to respect his speed and slide a safety his way and force Lamar Jackson to look elsewhere. Take the Under (-149).

Living Here in Allentown

The Buffalo Bills head into Kansas City where quarterback Josh Allen has a gaudy passing yardage Over/Under (305.5 yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). This one has all the makings of a shootout, because the Chiefs can’t afford to remain in sole possession of last place in the AFC West, where they currently reside. In primetime, Patrick Mahomes is going to look to put on a show and, whether he does or doesn’t, the Chiefs’ pass defense is brutal. Opponents are averaging 307 passing yards a game, and none of them are as prolific as Allen. Look for a primetime track meet. Take the Over (-114).

Up Against the Waller

After being targeted 19 times in the season opener and catching 10 of them, Las Vegas Raiders tight end Darren Waller hasn’t had more the five receptions in any game since. As a result, his receptions Over/Under (5.5 at -156 Over, +120 Under) has been forcibly dropped. Derek Carr has been averaging 27 completions a game and, given the Chicago Bears’ defensive issues in the middle of the field, hitting Waller six times shouldn’t take that much doing if the game goes as the Raiders believe it will on their home turf. Take the Over (-156).

NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Week 4

Make these Week 4 prop bets and enjoy a reward.

We’ve turned the page on September and we’re starting to see the style NFL offense and defenses are sporting in 2021. This week’s game will take in several factors, including a slow start for a superstar player, a bell cow running back who will be asked to do a lot, games in primetime, and what may be the most watched homecoming of all time.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Oct. 1, at 9:10 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

Can You Digg It?

Last year, Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs led the NFL in receptions and yards. This year, he’s second in receptions and third and in yards … on his team! When Diggs isn’t getting deep shots, he tends to get salty and grouse in the locker room. The Bills are likely to blow out the Texans, but Diggs hasn’t hit 70 yards in a game yet this season. His receiving yards Over/Under (83.5 yards at -114 for both) is high given his previous production this season. But, expect to see a couple of bombs come his way and a handful of crossing routes that get him Over for the first time all season. Take the Over.

Remember the Titans

There is no questioning that Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry is the most dominant running back in the league in terms of carries and yards. It might appear at first look that, without both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, Henry’s gaudy rushing Over/Under (117.5 yards at-114 for both) seems way too high, because the Jets will stack eight in the box. Henry and the Titans are used to that and won’t be shy about running Henry 30 times, if necessary. He only needs to break a couple of those to hit the point. Take the Over.

Not in the Cards

Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray has a modest rushing Over/Under (32.5 yards at -110 Over, -118 Under) and there’s a reason for it. In four starts, he has never hit that number against the Los Angeles Rams. In fact, in four starts, he has rushed 13 times for just 46 yards total. The Los Angeles defense knows how to defend Murray and keep him behind the line of scrimmage and not hurting it with his legs. The Cardinals have practically taken the run away from Murray in their playcalling. This would be an absurd number, but against the Rams, it’s there for a reason. Take the Under.

Homecoming G.O.A.T.

I learned years ago that you bet against Tom Brady at your own peril. He has beaten every team in the NFL with the exception of one – his former Patriots team. He has a pretty stiff passing yards Over/Under (305.5 at -114 for both the Over and Under). While the feeling is that Bill Belichick is going to try to disguise looks to confuse Brady, you can bet the Buccaneers know the importance of this game to the psyche of Brady and the coaching staff will let him cut loose. It’s a high number, but one that he can hit barring a complete blowout – and even then he might. Take the Over.

Keepin’ Up with Keenan

There are some bets that you come to the conclusion they met your number. Los Angeles Chargers receiver Keenan Allen has a high receptions Over/Under (6.5 at -156 Over, +120 Under). To hit the Over, he needs to catch seven passes, which isn’t easy for any receiver. He hasn’t hit seven catches in two of his last three and three of his last five games against the Las Vegas Raiders. There’s no questioning Allen is capable of catching seven passes – he’s caught or more twice already this season. But that isn’t a slam dunk as he may be playing through an ankle injury, so getting a sweet payout for the Under is hard to pass up at +120. Take the Under.

NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Week 3

A five-pack of NFL player prop bets for Week 3.

We’re starting to get a feel for how teams are shaking out in the 2021 edition of the NFL. Injuries at key positions and early success or failure are making prop bets a proposition that gets more qualified over time.

These are five prop bets that you can take to the pay window with confidence, because they make too much sense.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Sept. 24, at 10:30 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

There’s Something About Terry

There aren’t a lot of people who think the Washington Football Team Without a Name is going to slap down the Buffalo Bills in their house. When it comes to a bet on wide receiver Terry McLaurin, those setting the odds know what they’re doing. Washington is likely to be behind in for much, if not all, of this game. His reception Over/Under (5.5 receptions at -164 Over, +125 Under) is begging to bet the Under. Typically, I don’t like giving up that much to win less. That said, Take the Over.

Chief of Staff

There is a belief that the Bucs-Rams game is going to be shootout. As such Matthew Stafford’s passing yardage Over/Under is markedly high (310.5 yards at -114 Over, -114 Under). That’s the kind of number you expect to see from a team winning by 14 or losing by 14. The Rams aren’t in either category against Tampa Bay. This is going to be treated like a playoff game because a rematch is likely in January. Both teams are going to play it tight to the vest, and it should be noted that defensive players get played, too – and the Bucs have enough of them. Take the Under.

In the Nick of Time

Let’s see if we have this right. Jarvis Landry is out. OBJ is a hopeful question mark. And Nick Chubb has a modest rushing number against Chicago at home (73.5 yards at -114 Over, -114 Under). The Browns are going to count on its run game to win, and 20 carries should be the minimum expected from Chubb in this one. The game is done at 3:45, and Chubb has 20-plus carries. Take the Over.

Headley Lamar

The Baltimore Ravens get the Detroit Lions this week and quarterback Lamar Jackson has a fat rushing number (75.5 yards at -114 Over and -114 Under). There are legitimate running backs that have that number. By all accounts, the Ravens should dominate the Lions, who don’t have the pass rushers to force Jackson to bail out of the pocket and do his magic. Against this opponent, he should be able to hand the ball off to others (and throw it) without being expected to be the primary rusher. Take the Under.

Curious George

The Packers defense has had its share of issues getting off the field, especially against offenses trying to move the chains. George Kittle should be expected to catch eight passes. Will that be expected to hit his number (60.5 yards at -115 Over, -112 Under)? I’ll jump on board. Take the Over.

Prop Bet Payday: Week 1

Which NFL player prop bets should you make in Week 1?

The prop bet is the unsung bet for those looking to cash in on specific players instead of whether a team wins or loses. Many times the best bets are taking the Over on an Over/Under with a team you think is going to get hammered. The Over/Under on Justin Herbert as the season went along speaks to how to ride a trend before everyone else notices. For Week 1, we just look at numbers that seem either too high or too low as we wait to see how defenses rise or fall moving forward into the season.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Sept. 10, at 11:00 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

Candid Kamara

The problem with betting on rushing yards for Alvin Kamara during his career is that he has always had a sidekick who significantly cut into his time – whether Mark Ingram or Latavius Murray. Now he has neither, yet his opening week rushing line has an OVER/UNDER of 59.5 yards (-114 for both the Over and the Under). Without Drew Brees, Michael Thomas or Murray, I wouldn’t be surprised is Kamara gets 30 touches in some form or another. He doesn’t need a lot of rushing attempts to hit that number. Take the Over.

King of the Hill

One of the favorite weekly prop bet players is Tyreek Hill of the Chiefs. He is so over-the-top dominant deep downfield some defensive coordinators will let Travis Kelce catch 10 short passes to prevent one or two bombs to Hill. His Over/Under (82.5 yards at -114 for both the Over and Under) is about where you would expect a Hill line to be. Cleveland is going to try to take the air out of the ball with their run game, but Patrick Mahomes is going to have his deep shots dialed up for Hill, and he may need only two downfield plays to hit this number. Take the Over.

Justin Case

As a rookie, Justin Herbert quietly made those who bet the Over rich because he topped 265 yards 11 of the 15 games he played. His Week 1 Over/Under (260.5 at -114 for both the Over and Under) seems shockingly low. The only reason the “Washington Team to Be Named Eventually” made the playoffs last year was because it quietly had one of the most dominant defenses in the league. Herbert is going to be feeling heat on the snap like he didn’t see as often in his rookie season. He may win the game, but Take the Under.

Let’s Go To the Hop

The Arizona Cardinals are going to be playing in Tennessee on West Coast Body Clock time, which historically isn’t good. The Cards are a trendy pick to be a come-up team this season – all four teams in the NFC West are legitimate playoff contenders – but going into Tennessee at 10 a.m. Arizona time doesn’t sound like a team hitting on all cylinders. DeAndre Hopkins has a legitimate Over/Under (84.5 yards at -114 for both) that will take some doing to meet. But, this is a game that should heavily favor Tennessee to control the tempo and require the Cardinals to throw a lot. If Kyler Murray is going to throw a lot, Hopkins has to be the first look more times than not. Take the Over.

Harris of the Dog

The Pittsburgh Steelers had an embarrassment of riches in the Le’Veon Bell years. He was a three-down back who could hurt you a lot of ways. But, after a bitter divorce a couple of years ago, the Steelers invested a first-round pick – a franchise rarity – to take Najee Harris. The door is wide open for him to be “The Man” from Day 1. He has a modest Over/Under (62.5 yards, -125 Over, -103 Under). On the road at Buffalo is far from a guarantee of ground success, but Harris is going to likely get 15 or more carries, which should easily state his case. Take the Over.