fantasy football gambles – Page 2

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 8

Will this touchdown machine get his lost season back on track in Week 8?

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.

The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 8

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 1-6-0
All-time record: 19-37-3

Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing

This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.

Wk	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
%	55%	74.7%	41.7%	20.8%	150.3%	66.5%	16.1%
Grade	E	C	F-	F-	A+	D	F-

And here I thought Week 4 was rock bottom!

In Week 7, New York Giants wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson caught one of his two targets for 22 yards and that was it all she wrote. Darren Waller and Jalin Hyatt led the aerial game in targets, and Robinson posted his worst fantasy stat line since this rookie debut … just the way I drew it up.

My overall success rate of 32.2% would be a respectable MLB career hitting average, but it’s far too low for my liking when it comes to weekly fantasy prognostication, even on total flier calls. This week, the need to take a gamble is much lower with no teams on vacation, and the lack of byes means this recommendation is best utilized for daily fantasy action. However, if you’re in a bind or willing to risk a flex spot, there is merit to such a move.

New Orleans Saints RB Jamaal Williams at Indianapolis Colts

Williams suffered a hamstring injury in Week 2 that caused him to go on the Reserve/Injured list and cost the veteran four contests before returning in Week 7. He faced a quality Jacksonville defense last Sunday but failed to do much of anything, rushing just five times for 14 yards. He was on the field for a mere 22.2% of the offensive snaps and rushed once in the red zone but not at all inside of the 10-yard line. Williams wasn’t targeted for the second time in three outings.

He heads to Indianapolis for a date with one of the weakest defenses of the running back position, and we can view last week’s limited showing as the 28-year-old shaking off the rust.

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Alvin Kamara overcame a midweek illness but is coming off three straight showings with a 3.6 yards-per-carry average, which is quite a bit below the league average. Now, that’s not all his fault as the offensive line has battled some injuries and tough enough opponents to depress his numbers.

Kamara has seen no fewer than 25 utilizations in each game back from his suspension, and that’s just not a wise floor to maintain. New Orleans needs to get Williams more involved and compartmentalize their respective roles to a greater degree. Game flow, however, plays a pivotal role in that coming to fruition.

The Colts are not likely to put the Saints in an early hole that requires an abandonment of the running game, and that’s going to work in Williams’ favor. As long as this game is within, say, 10 points on the board at any time entering the fourth, New Orleans will pound the ball.

Indianapolis has surrendered massive numbers to running backs, especially in the last five weeks. This is the sixth-easiest opponent to face for rushing yardage per game since Week 2 ended, and only the Carolina Panthers have yielded touchdowns at a higher rate in relation to number of carries faced. One in every 18.6 attempts has found paydirt, and that has come against the fourth-most rushes per game. Six backs have posted at least 15.1 PPR points, and three of them a have scored multiple times on the ground.

My projection: 14 carries, 52 yards, 2 TDs, 1 target, 1 reception, 6 yards (18.8 PPR points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 7

This second-year receiver is on the rise at the right time for fantasy footballers.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 7

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 1-5-0
All-time record: 19-36-3

Wk	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
%	55%	74.7%	41.7%	20.8%	150.3%	66.5%
Grade	E	C	F-	F-	A+	D

After a dismal 1-5, I share a record with New England, Chicago, Denver, Arizona, and the New York Giants … but at least I’m not the Carolina Panthers!

Coping aside, last week was so close to being a win that it stings more than the blowout losses I encountered earlier in the year. The prediction of Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford would have been good if tight end Tyler Higbee didn’t drop a perfectly thrown ball at the goal line that was a sure touchdown.

Further pouring salt in my wound, Cincinnati Bengals receiver Tyler Boyd was the player I strongly debated over Stafford … Spilled milk, I suppose, but it goes to show how fickle this game is both in reality and on the prognosticative front.

While gaining momentum from going 2-4 would have felt much better, we have to dust off and keep going … there’s a lot of football yet to be played.

New York Giants WR Wan’Dale Robinson vs. Washington Commanders

Since returning from last year’s torn ACL, Robinson has been a steady contributor for the hapless New York offense. In Week 3, he played just 22 percent of the snaps, so we won’t hold that against him, but the second-year pro still logged four receptions on his five targets. He has seen at least seven utilizations go his way in each of the last three games, topping out at last week’s eight-look day that resulted in a 100% catch rate and 62 yards, the second-best mark of his injury-shortened career.

New York played without quarterback Daniel Jones (neck) last week, and it’s not hard to connect the dots to Robinson being more productive. Veteran Tyrod Taylor surely isn’t the answer to the Giants’ woes, nor is he likely to be any worse than the man he is replacing. The entire offense looked more competent with the journeyman running the show, and there’s something to be said for less chaos creating a positive ripple effect.

Having Saquon Barkley (ankle) back on the field didn’t negatively impact Robinson’s target share, either, as the slot receiver garnered 28 percent of the looks. He also had a season-high 76.9% rate of routes run while seeing only 58.7% of the offensive snaps.

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Washington has permitted serious work to the position in 2023. No team has surrendered more yardage in total, and this is the best matchup over the last five weeks, too, for per-game results in that category. It’s also the best for non-PPR points allowed, yards-per-reception average, PPR points per touch, and ease of scoring touchdowns in relation to volume. The 14th-fewest catches allowed per contest created the most TD grabs by a margin of two, coming at one every 7.2 receptions landed.

Of the 231.8 total PPR points granted to the position since Week 1 ended, receptions and yardage combine to account for 76.4% of the success. Nine receivers have posted at least 10 points in PPR, and four of them did it without even finding the end zone.

So we have a stellar matchup profile, an uptick in route involvement, a healthy target share, and more stability at quarterback … Robinson is poised for another quality showing — perhaps the best of his to-date 11-game career.

My projection: 8 targets, 7 receptions, 69 yards, 1 TD (19.9 PPR points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 6

Will this seasoned veteran drop dimes on a suspect defense?

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 6

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 1-4-0
All-time record: 19-35-3

Wk	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
%	55%	74.7%	41.7%	20.8%	150.3%
Grade	E	C	F-	F-	A+

It’s nice to get one in the win column, but building momentum is the goal. Last week, Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert was the choice, and he far exceeded my expectations. This week, we’re going to look in a different direction after focusing on the tight end position the last few games.

Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford vs. Arizona Cardinals

Through five games, the 35-year-old has averaged a single touchdown pass and finally threw multiple TD strikes last week for the first time in 2023. Stafford has managed at least 300 yards in 60 percent of his contests this season, and his fantasy floor is 17.8 as QB16 in Week 1, which actually wasn’t the lowest ranking for him. He finished QB21 a few weeks later, despite scoring more points. With that established, Stafford hasn’t finished better than QB15 this year and has only 21.4 points as his personal best in 2023.

Los Angeles enjoyed the return of star receiver Cooper Kupp in Week 5, and he didn’t miss a beat after being unavailable since Week 10 last season. Not only did that help, but rookie phenom Puka Nacua remained highly involved and quite effective. Third receiver Tutu Atwell offers another dangerous outlet, running back Kyren Williams is versatile enough to help in the passing game, and tight end Tyler Higbee is capable of chipping away over the middle.

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This week, the matchup favors passing over running — and especially so to the wide receiver position, which is LA’s offensive strength. Kupp, Nacua and Atwell should be a viable three-deep weapons cache for fantasy purposes, and that won’t happen without Stafford being no worse than solid.

Given the opponent, however, he has a prime opportunity to be much better than that … the Cardinals have given up the sixth-most passing yards per game (274.4) and touchdowns at the 14th-easiest rate in relation to number of balls thrown. Only two defenses have yielded more points per offensive play by a quarterback.

Arizona has given up three rushing scores to quarterbacks in 2023, that’s in no way Stafford’s game at this stage of his career. While he rushed for a pair of scores in the 2021 playoffs, he has a single ground TD to his name since the 2016 season concluded. But even when the trio of rushing touchdowns are removed, this is still the seventh-best matchup to exploit.

The Cardinals could be without their two best defensive backs, Despite averaging a respectable 3.0 sacks per game on 35 attempts faced, this defense has allowed the fifth-highest offensive scoring rate per drive and the 17th-lowest percentage of drives ending in a turnover. Arizona is tied for the third-lowest blitz percentage and second-worst pressure rate — the likely difference-maker for Stafford behind an offensive line that has allowed the 10th-lowest pressure rate.

My projection: 303 passing yards, 6 rushing yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT (23.18 points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 5

Will this veteran tight end finally return to the end zone?

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 5

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 0-4-0
All-time record: 18-35-3

Wk	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
%	55%	74.7%	41.7%	20.8%
Grade	E	C	F-	F-

There are no two ways around this being by far the worst start to — as well as among the longest losing streaks of — any year I’ve been doing this series. The entire concept is ripe for a low success rate, but 0-4 is unacceptable in any context.

Last week’s featured failure was Buffalo Bills tight end Dawson Knox vs. Miami Dolphins, marking consecutive games in which I was so flatly wrong about Miami that my recommendations flopped because of the incorrect view of game flow. In Week 3, Javonte Williams was my pick, but I never saw Miami jumping out to a 49-13 lead through three quarters, which eliminated Williams from the game plan. Last week, I didn’t foresee Miami being down big most of the way, thus meaning Buffalo didn’t need to pass excessively.

Philadelphia Eagles TE Dallas Goedert at Los Angeles Rams

For Week 5’s recommendation, statistical data is taking a passenger seat to situational football and extenuating circumstances. Goedert, a once-coveted fantasy option, has fallen on hard times. He has scored a mere touchdown in his last 10 appearances and reached double-digit PPR points in just 30 percent of those games and only 22.2 percent of the time when he didn’t find the end zone.

Philadelphia has so many weapons that he can get lost in the mix, and the team’s vertical success also detracts from Goedert’s number of opportunities in the red zone given that the team is tied for fourth at generating passing plays over 25 yards.

Los Angeles has allowed the 20th-most TE receptions but the sixth-highest scoring frequency in 2023, and this profiles as a top-10 matchup in both primary scoring systems. The Rams have given up only the 12th-most yards per attempt, and this is the sixth-best defense at limiting yardage after the catch. Just six teams have been weaker at allowing touchdowns in the red zone. Two Indianapolis Colts tight ends reached double figures in PPR last week, and two of the three previous matchups were against offenses that don’t involve the position much.

While there are some notable stats working in Goedert’s favor, Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni said the team still intends to feed him on offense.

“Trust me – I promise you he’s still part of the plan of us wanting to get him the football. We need to get him the football,” Sirianni said. “Sometimes there’s a dry spell in there, too, with what’s kind of going on right now. There are some different things that defenses are concerned of with Dallas that has affected some of the touches he’s gotten. It’s a bit of both. He is a great player. We rely on him.”

In Week 5, the tight ends on bye aren’t serious fantasy factors, making it tougher to rely on the struggling veteran. Fortunately, most people who drafted Goedert did so with the intention of him being a weekly starter. Tough it out one more time if you’ve been considering replacement options in recent weeks.

My projection: 6 targets, 5 receptions, 61 yards, 1 TD (17.1 PPR points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 4

Will this TD-reliant veteran find the end zone in Week 4? His value depends on it.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 4

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 0-3-0
All-time record: 18-34-3

Wk	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
%	55%	74.7%	41.7%
Grade	E	C	F-

Not much to say about last week’s utter failure of a pick in Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams. It’s not that he played poorly, but the Miami Dolphins obliterated their opponent, which led to an abandonment of the running game. I’m a little surprised he didn’t see more targets, but all things Broncos stunk out loud.

TE Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins

Going back to the well against Miami … hopefully there’s something in the bucket when it reaches the surface this week. Tight end is one of the most volatile positions in fantasy, and Knox is overly reliant on finding the end zone. That’s a combination for an extra-risky recommendation, so this won’t be for the faint of heart.

Buffalo has sent only 11 total targets Knox’s direction in 2023. He has a mere seven catches and no more than 25 yards in any game, scoring once in Week 2. Knox current sits one target shy of rookie Dalton Kincaid, the team’s future at the position, but the rookie has just 9.3 PPR points as his high-water mark through three contests. The veteran has twice as many targets in the red zone, which is where Knox scored his lone TD.

Miami has given up the seventh-most fantasy points to the position in ’23, and that includes allowing 1.1 to all three Denver TEs last weekend. The majority of positional success has come from a pair of touchdowns in the first two games (Donald Parham and Hunter Henry), though we saw Mike Gesicki nab five passes for 33 yards in Week 2 for 19.3 percent of the total fantasy success.

While volume usually isn’t Knox’s game, he managed to post a 6-98-1 line in the 2022 Week 15 meeting, though his previous Week 3 trip to Miami was good for a lowly 6.5 points in PPR. These divisional foes played three times last season, including the Wild Card meeting in which Knox’s number was dialed five times, leading to 11 PPR points on a 3-20-1 day.

This one comes down to game script and the Dolphins having to stop Buffalo’s receiving corps. The Miami offense from last week would force the Bills into an all-hands-on-deck script. That’s not a reliable outlook given the strength of the Buffalo defense, and gamers considering Knox should be solely focused on a situational touchdown. He’s useless without one. Consider playing him only if you have someone like Kyle Pitts, Dalton Schultz, Dallas Goedert, Cole Kmet, or Pat Freiermuth as your drafted TE1.

My projection: 6 targets, 5 receptions, 44 yards, 1 TD (15.4 PPR points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 3

A prime matchup makes this third-year pro a sound start in Week 3.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 3

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 0-2-0
All-time record: 18-33-3

Wk	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
%	55%	74.7%
Grade	F	C

Last week’s performance by Minnesota Vikings wide receiver K.J. Osborn is a perfect example of why I decided to add the grading system above. He was projected for 16.6 PPR points and finished at 12.4, narrowly missing the 75 percent threshold (thanks for the wide-open drop, Mr. Osborn). But that doesn’t mean playing him hurt you in any way, so it’s hard to call it a true loss. For the sake of maintaining a baseline, it still gets chalked up as a loss.

RB Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins

Somewhat surprisingly, Williams has dominated the backfield’s carry count 25-to-9 over Samaje Perine. The two have produced nearly identical fantasy results, however, and suffice it to say, the returns haven’t been great. Williams is still trying to regain his form following last year’s torn ACL, and the expectation was he’d be slowly worked back in with Perine garnering the bulk of the early-season workload. It just isn’t been the case, and that’s a great sign for Williams, even if he hasn’t been particularly explosive.

In Week 1, we saw a much closer carry split between Williams and Perine. The former rushed 13 times to the latter’s eight, but Denver leaned on their third-year back a dozen times to the journeyman’s lone carry last weekend. Nonetheless, Perine has maintained a receiving role with four targets in each of the first two games. Williams has averaged 4.5 targets of his own.

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The Broncos don’t want this to turn into a track meet, and keeping Miami’s offense on the sideline as long as possible is the goal. Expect a heavy reliance on the ground game, and even if the Dolphins do a good job of clogging up the middle, Williams’ ability as a checkdown for Russell Wilson is an underrated aspect of his game.

Williams should start to turn the corner in Week 3 vs. a Dolphins defense that has given up running back TDs at the fourth-highest rate, and only two teams have yielded rushing yards per game at a higher figure than the 135.5 Miami has granted. The ‘Fins have allowed 5.1 yards per carry to the position. This matchup is much easier to exploit on the ground, and gamers should like Williams for his best season-to-date performance as a risky RB2 and much safer flex.

My projection: 14 carries, 66 rushing yards, 5 targets, 5 receptions, 28 yards, 1 TD (20.4 PPR points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 2

Looking to exploit an injury-ravaged secondary?

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 2

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 0-1-0
All-time record: 18-32-3

Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing

Wk	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
%	55%
Grade	F

In the opening week, New Orleans Saints wideout Michael Thomas was selected for this space, and it started off like the prediction of 20.1 PPR points was going to be a smashing success. Tennessee then directed some attention his way to slow the veteran, resulting in the projected line being higher 45 percent higher than the actual results. It was a disaster from a points-scored perspective, but I wasn’t too far off after nailing his number of targets and being one catch away. The lack of a touchdown, which went to WR Rashid Shaheed, really is what killed the forecast.

Not a great start. But, as the name of this series indicates, we’re talking gambles and not locks, so it’s going to happen — and a lot.

Onward, we go….

WR K.J. Osborn, Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles

Last year, Osborn caught only two passes on as many targets for 25 yards and no touchdowns in the Week 2 trip to Philadelphia. He was the third receiver in that contest behind Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, and the Vikes didn’t have tight end T.J. Hockenson on the roster yet. None of the receivers last year did anything of note, and Minnesota lost 24-7.

In tonight’s contest, however, there’s a marked difference from Philly’s side. The defense will be without the man lining up across from Osborn, cornerback James Bradberry (concussion), as well as safety Reed Blankenship (ribs). Furthermore, standout defensive tackle Fletcher Cox (ribs) may not be available to put pressure on quarterback Kirk Cousins.

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Minnesota lost to a Tampa Bay team that most prognosticators would consider to be an inferior squad, and just about anyone with functional eyesight will rightfully say Philadelphia has the better roster this week. The Vikings are awful on defense, and that’s going to lead to Cousins hurling the ball north of 45 times in this one.

Jefferson will get his, and Hockenson is poised for a strong game, but Osborn should make for the stronger play over rookie Jordan Addison, who scored a wide-open touchdown in Week 1. The rookie may have found the end zone and received the fantasy praise, but he and Osborn each had six targets.

With all of the effort and attention sent toward JJ and Hock, this one has the makings of an Osborn game. We saw it happen a few times each of the last two years, including five of the last six contests a year ago. Jefferson posted three of his worst 2022 games in that stretch, and Hockenson wasn’t able to top 6.5 PPR points two of them.

If you’re in a pinch and want to chance it on an exploitable matchup, or need to save a few DFS bucks, give Osborn a whirl from the flex spot.

My projection: 6 targets, 4 receptions, 66 yards, 1 TD (16.6 PPR points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 1

Will this once-dominant veteran return to glory in Week 1?

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 1

Tracking my predictions: 0-0-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing

2022 record: 5-12-1
2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1

We’re back for another NFL season, and attempting to shake off a 2022 slump begins with a former star receiver whose career has taken a sharp turn for the worse in recent years. This article series wasn’t designed to include household fantasy football names, but every so often an exception is granted.

The main reason for this week’s inclusion is that we haven’t seen much of note from this veteran in the last two seasons, and we’re also talking about a No. 4 fantasy receiver by draft placement.

WR Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints vs. Tennessee Titans

Week 3 of the 2022 season was the last time Thomas was on the field catching passes in a meaningful game, and he wasn’t faring poorly at all in his trio of appearances last year. Thomas caught three touchdowns in that span, including two in the first outing of 2022, securing a line of 16-171-3 on 22 targets altogether. This production, while from a small sample size, extrapolates to nearly 91 receptions, 973.7 yards, and 17 touchdowns over a full season. The scoring stat is an unrealistic number to forecast over 18 weeks, but something in the realm of 90-900-10 is a viable floor this season, presuming he actually stays healthy.

Thomas will get a serious upgrade at quarterback in Derek Carr, the best signal caller with whom he has worked since Drew Brees’ retirement. At age 29, Thomas still has the skills to work over defenses with his excellent route running and elite hands, even if the injuries have robbed some athleticism.

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Receiver Chris Olave will steal his share of looks from Thomas, but that’s not all bad. No one should be banking on the 149-catch version of Thomas from 2019, and it’s pretty obvious no one is based on his ADP of WR43 this year. Having a dynamic receiver, like this second-year pro, keeps defenses from overloading Thomas’ side of the field. Tight end Juwan Johnson working the middle also presents a decision for defenders, particularly in the red zone. The last notable situation from the personnel side of the equation is no Alvin Kamara not only frees up extra targets but suggests more passing volume.

Tennessee was the worst defense against wide receivers in 2022, and it’s difficult to point to any clear upgrades that should be immediately felt in Week 1. Not only is this a tremendous matchup in point-per-reception scoring, the Titans are awfully tough vs. running backs. The latter factor implies the Saints will turn to the air more often than usual. This notion is amplified by the aforementioned loss of Kamara via suspension.

It will be fair to get worried about the now-healthy Thomas if he cannot get off to a hot start in 2023 with such a prime matchup. Even though bye weeks aren’t yet a factor and he likely wasn’t drafted to start for your team, find a way to get the veteran into PPR lineups for Sunday’s contest.

My projection: 8 targets, 6 receptions, 81 yards, 1 TD (20.1 PPR points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 18

With everything on the line, will No. 12 finish as a QB1 in fantasy?

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 18

Tracking my predictions: 5-11-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing

2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1

In Week 17, New Orleans Saints wide receiver Rashid Shaheed was the choice here, and his six catches for 79 yards generated enough PPR points to qualify for a “win.” While I would have liked to see the projected score come true, the recommendation caused no harm, and some weeks that feels like a win in and of itself.

For the finale, we return to promote a familiar face playing in an unwelcoming confine … for his opponent, anyway.

QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions

I have avoided including the same player twice in this space during a given season, but Week 18 has me feeling the return of Rodgers is apropos due to the situation ahead. He was the Week 1 selection and failed to deliver.

The 2022 season has not gone Rodgers’ way, but in the last four weeks his Packers have mounted a comeback that has them on the brink of a playoff berth.

Can he propel his team into the postseason? How will Green Bay choose to attack in this one? Will this be the last time we see him in a Packers uniform at Lambeau Field?

From a fantasy perspective, only one of those answers is relevant, and we’ll circle back in a bit.

In the Week 6 meeting with Detroit, Rodgers threw 43 passes — a season high — and connected on 53.5 — a season low. He finished with 291 yards passing, 40 more rushing, one touchdown throw, and an uncharacteristic three interceptions.

Not great.

For context, that was just the fifth time in Rodgers’ career in which he threw three picks, and the last time came in 2017. Don’t get too wrapped up in that blemish.

Seven times a quarterback posted at least 290 yards through the air vs. Detroit this season, and eight outings resulted in multiple touchdown strikes. Seven rushing TDs have come from the legs of quarterbacks, and while Rodgers doesn’t run like six years ago, he still has at least one rushing TD in each of the last five seasons and seven in the past three seasons. Seven seems like the magic number in this matchup.

Detroit has given up 10 performances of 22-plus fantasy points in 2022, and that includes Rodgers’ first meeting with the Lions. No team has granted more success in fantasy, and the boys in Honolulu blue have surrendered 30.1 percent more success than average on the year. Although the Lions have stiffened a degree in recent weeks, the likes of Zach Wilson and Sam Darnold have posted 24-pointers in the last three weeks. Kirk Cousins went for 29.2 in Week 14. If you remove Trevor Lawrence‘s 16.2-point Week 13 showing, you have to go back to Week 7 to find the last time a signal caller didn’t manage at least 21 points against Detroit.

The weather forecast is not going to be an issue for putting the ball in the air. The biggest risk here simply comes down to how the Packers will attack. There’s a low likelihood the Lions will explode offensively as Green Bay’s defense has played improved ball during the winning streak.

Detroit sits near the middle of the pack at stopping the run, ranking 12th in rushing yards allowed to RBs on the year. Containing Aaron Jones (knee, ankle) and AJ Dillon will be imperative for Rodgers to have a strong fantasy day. Those two combined for 41 yards on 12 carries in Week 9, so it’s absolutely within reason.

Aside the aberration vs. Carolina, Detroit hasn’t given up a 100-yard back since Week 5. That said, it’s not unfair to be concerned given how badly Detroit played in that anomalous outing, but its strong run defense vs. Chicago last week shows the Lions righted the ship.

With everything on the line, at home, in January, vs. a team still trying to learn how to be winners, putting faith in Rodgers is a wise gamble to make in fantasy lineups. He may not have the strongest day of Week 18 passers, but No. 12 is as safe a bet for QB1 returns as at any time this season.

My projection: 27-for-38, 287 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 12 rushing yards (27.55 PPR fantasy points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 17

Will this vertical threat come through for brazen gamers in Week 17?

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 17

Tracking my predictions: 4-11-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing

2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1

New York Giants wideout Darius Slayton occupied this space last week but fell about 15 percent short of the winning threshold. He didn’t hurt anyone who played him, but the parameters for a win or loss weren’t met, so it gets chalked up as yet another “L” on the year.

A similarly skilled receiver is the recommendation this week, and the risk really comes from the perception of the matchup itself.

WR Rashid Shaheed, New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles

The 24-year-old’s first offensive touch as a pro went into the end zone on a 44-yard run in Week 6, and he followed it up with a 53-yard TD grab the next week. It took a passing month’s worth of action before Shaheed would return to relevance in fantasy, and even then it was just barely.

In the past three games, the Weber State product has collected 11 of 13 targets. He has just three fewer looks than Chris Olave (hamstring) over the last five weeks, though it’s three games played by Olave vs. four, due to a bye week and injury absence. No Saints receiver has more receiving yards than Shaheed’s 280 or his 11.5 PPR points per game in that time. His five targets last week marked a career high, and Shaheen’s floor in the last month has been 7.9 PPR points, so it hasn’t been a total loss when he has been at his recent worst.

Andy Dalton has shown enough respect for what the largely untested Shaheed does in the long-ball game, therefore even a low-volume target tally still makes the young receiver a viable gamble thanks to his downfield skill set. He has averaged a hearty 19.7 yards per catch in 2022, which ranks second among receivers with at least 20 targets and first among wideouts with 15-plus catches.

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On the year, Philadelphia checks in as the ninth-worst matchup for wide receivers, which may be a daunting sight for interested gamers. Rest assured, however, this secondary has fallen on hard times of late as nine of the 15 total WR touchdowns have come in the last five weeks — and at an alarming rate. No team has permitted scores at a higher frequency than the once every 5.3 grabs the Eagles have surrendered. The sixth-lowest weekly volume of receptions produced the 11th-fewest yards, which suggests, in conjunction with Shaheen’s profile, a low-volume, TD-necessary performance should be expected.

The Saints will have to keep pace with Philly’s offense, regardless of whether Jalen Hurts (shoulder) or Gardner Minshew is on the field. If Olave sits out again, Shaheed is the top target for Dalton, and all it takes is one long play for the pass-catcher to live up to a flex spot. A return of Olave may lower the ceiling of Shaheen’s opportunities, while it also allows him to see less defensive attention. Win-win.

My projection: 6 targets, 4 receptions, 66 yards, 1 TD (16.6 PPR fantasy points)