The official list of sleepers and busts will come from the fingertips of David Dorey later this summer, but my personal favorites are already here to tide you over. In this release, sleepers, deep sleepers (late fliers) and undervalued players will be addressed in the context of 12-team, 16-round drafts.
Note: All ADP figures are courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com and use PPR scoring, unless noted otherwise. The figures are based on redraft-only leagues conducted after the 2021 NFL Draft.
Top fantasy football sleepers for 2021
1) RB Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers (ADP: 9:05)
The 2021 third-rounder from Ohio State is an ideal fit for San Fran’s zone-blocking scheme. The backfield will be a time-share situation, pitting the rookie against Raheem Mostert for the primary workload to begin the year. Jeff Wilson Jr. suffered a torn meniscus and opted for immediate knee surgery. His prognosis is four to six months of recovery, which practically assures he will miss the first month or more of the season. Mostert battled injuries of his own last year and really has only a handful of productive games in his career. Sermon sits atop this list for his potential to steal the show and dominate the touch split. While there may be concern if fellow rookie Trey Lance starts at quarterback, it should work in Sermon’s favor by way of more rushing attempts due to an increased reliance on the ground game. Mostert’s injury concerns and Wilson’s recovery timeline should have gamers pleased to take a gamble on Sermon’s Sunday services. Expect his ADP to rise dramatically with the news of Wilson going on the mend.
2) TE Anthony Firkser, Tennessee Titans (ADP: 14:06)
The offense lost coordinator Arthur Smith to the Atlanta Falcons in the offseason, leading to the promotion of Todd Downing. He spent the past two years as tight ends coach in Tennessee and previously served as the OC of the then-Oakland Raiders in 2017. Even though his lone season calling plays for the Raiders was more or less an unmitigated disaster, largely due to a lack of feel for in-game, situational nuances, tight end Jared Cook was second on the team with catches (54) and third in targets (86). Firkser has flashed a few times and is poised for a strong season in an offense that is starving for someone to ascend behind wideout A.J. Brown.
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3) RB Javian Hawkins, Atlanta Falcons (ADP: 18:05)
Hawkins is an undrafted rookie from Louisville and profiles similarly to a Darren Sproles type — undersized at 5-foot-8, 183 pounds and a natural catcher out of the backfield. Atlanta signed journeyman Mike Davis after he posted quality numbers in Christian McCaffrey’s absences last year. The veteran needs help, even though he’s a gifted receiver in his own right, and Hawkins has little proven talent ahead of him. Atlanta’s defense is a hot mess, which will inevitably lead to more passing than Arthur Smith would like to see. Additionally, the likely departure of WR Julio Jones will free up a serious number of targets. Hawkins is unlikely to assume the bulk of the backfield touches, although it is worth noting there is a reason it took Davis four teams over six years before really breaking through in fantasy. At worst, Hawkins is a weekly PPR play in tandem with Davis.
4) WR Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts (ADP: 10:12)
The second-year wideout has a new quarterback and offensive coordinator, so making everything click early on will be imperative for his season-long success. Carson Wentz has been reunited with his past play-caller and current head coach in Frank Reich, returning him to a comfortable setting and mindset. The Colts need a possession receiver to move the chains. T.Y. Hilton returns but isn’t quite as dynamic as he once was down the field. There are other pass-catching options in the mix, too, such as RB Nyheim Hines and tight end Jack Doyle, so Pittman’s volume is capped to a fair degree. Pittman missed three games last year with injury but still cobbled together a respectable Year 1 campaign and could emerge as a competent WR2 in PPR as the season unfolds.
5) TE Adam Trautman, New Orleans Saints (ADP: 14:04)
This one is somewhat dependent upon which quarterback — Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill — wins the starting job. Either way, Trautman should be heavily involved, but his ceiling is much greater with Winston under center as the primary QB. In the event the former Buccaneer is indeed the Week 1 starter, we’ll see Hill mixed in with regularity. Winston’s 2019 season resulted in 108 combined targets sent toward TEs Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard. That Bucs offense had two receivers see at least 118 looks, and this year’s Saints team will struggle to field a viable WR2 behind Michael Thomas. Trautman was a project of sorts coming out of Dayton in 2020 as a third-round selection, but the system is friendly to the position’s success, and Sean Payton loves to see himself proven correct when it comes to personnel decisions. The 6-foot-5, 255-pound Trautman could be this year’s breakthrough tight end, especially near the stripe.
6) WR Henry Ruggs III, Las Vegas Raiders (ADP: 12:03)
Remember him? Ruggs, a first-round choice in 2020, was basically useless in fantasy football as a rookie. He enjoyed a Week 5 line of 2-118-1 as his best fantasy performance of the year. The Alabama standout failed to catch more than three balls in any of his 13 games, and he saw five targets (twice) as a high-water mark for involvement. That has to change if the Raiders have any chance of taking this offense to the next level. The talent around him really hasn’t upgraded in any significant way to steal looks. It’s unfair to hold Ruggs’ rookie season against him in a historical context given the unprecedented offseason and lack of traditional teaching moments on the field prior to Week 1. It didn’t hurt some rookies, but some benefit of the doubt must be granted for an objective perspective of Ruggs’ 2021 outlook. Few receivers could have as glaring of a jump in production from Year 1 to 2 as this burner.
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7) WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions (ADP: 14:03)
Opportunity is arguably the most important factor in fantasy football success for rookies, and there aren’t many better situations around the league than what is presented to the USC product. St. Brown has NFL bloodlines in Green Bay Packers wideout Equanimeous St. Brown, which helps his learning curve a great deal. Amon-Ra was a freshman contributor with the Trojans, illustrating a history of picking up a system quickly and not being overwhelmed by a new experience. The Lions seriously lack weaponry in the passing game. It won’t be a surprise if tight end T.J. Hockenson and running back D’Andre Swift combine for 180 receptions or more, but there’s still roughly 180 in that case to be distributed. It’s fair to effectively write off Breshad Perriman at this stage of his career, and who knows what we’ll get from Tyrell Williams after a shoulder injury cost him the 2020 season. The younger St. Brown has a legitimate chance to lead the team’s receivers in targets from the slot, which could result in a line somewhere around 60 catches for 900 yards and four or five TDs from the hand of Jared Goff. Not explosive numbers, but serviceable, nonetheless.
8) TE Gerald Everett, Seattle Seahawks (ADP: 16:10)
A change of scenery and major upgrade at quarterback cannot hurt, but Everett has the immense benefit of already knowing the offensive system he’s entering in Seattle. New coordinator Shane Waldron will be calling the shots in the Pacific Northwest, and Everett will see plenty of familiarity in the designs after spending the past four years with Waldron in Sean McVay’s system. Seattle’s passing game will go through Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, but a rookie (D’Wayne Eskridge) is poised to man the No. 3 gig, which could go either direction with greater likelihood for a typical first-year showing. Everett is unlikely to see top-12 tight end volume, so his clearest path to success will come via trips to the end zone. Six touchdowns came from 2020 No. 3 receiver David Moore, and as many or more could go the tight end’s direction. If something were to happen to either primary wideout, Everett will be a weekly starter at a volatile fantasy position.
9) New York Giants, D/ST (ADP: 19:09)
Perhaps undervalued is a better term for the Giants, but sleeper works after this defense upgraded following a 12th-place showing in 2020 fantasy scoring. Between incoming personnel improvements and maturation gains, the Giants are poised to capitalize on an underrated showing in fake football from a season ago. Veteran cornerback Adoree’ Jackson joins an already talented secondary, and former Washington linebacker Ryan Anderson adds a blue-collar presence to the front seven. Giving Dallas the benefit of the doubt with Dak Prescott’s return still leaves four games against Jalen Hurts and Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Giants also face Denver, New Orleans, Carolina, Miami and Chicago with inexperienced/susceptible quarterbacks.
10) Denver Broncos, D/ST (ADP: 18:05)
Bradley Chubb and Von Miller should return to full strength to create one of the most formidable pass rushes in the game. Vic Fangio’s system will be fully implemented for 2021, and the secondary underwent quite possibly the most impressive upgrade over the offseason. First-round cornerback Patrick Surtain II is as NFL-ready as they come out of college. Ronald Darby comes over as one of the more underrated defensive backs, and Kyle Fuller’s surprising release by the Bears reunites him with Fangio. A quick look at the schedule shows exploitable matchups with presumed starting quarterbacks Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawrence (in his second pro game), Zach Wilson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jalen Hurts, and Jared Goff.
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Intriguing late-round gambles
1) RB Samaje Perine, Cincinnati Bengals (ADP: 23:05)
How much do you trust Joe Mixon to stay healthy for 17 games? After an admirable effort in 2020, Perine could be more than just a handcuff after the release of Giovani Bernard, particularly if Mixon is throttled a little after playing only one full season in his career. He has competition from Pooka Williams, Trayveon Williams and Chris Evans, so recognize this is a volatile situation.
2) RB Brian Hill, Tennessee Titans (ADP: 22:03)
The former Atlanta Falcon comes over to battle Darrynton Evans and Jeremy McNichols — stiff competition *eye-roll emoji* — for the primary backup chores to Derrick Henry. After amassing such a heavy workload in recent seasons, the burly back could be closer to missing time via injury, making his backup extremely valuable in this run-heavy system.
3) WR Tyrell Williams, Detroit Lions (ADP: 20:05)
Perriman is on his fifth team in as many seasons, and a rookie is largely the impediment for Williams returning to WR3 status. Detroit is in dire straits at the position, especially if St. Brown cannot ascend as detailed above.
4) WR Josh Reynolds, Tennessee Titans (ADP: 18:03)
Perhaps he belongs in the top-10 sleepers list … the former LA Ram has a vacancy begging to be filled after Corey Davis walked in free agency, but we’ve seen enough from Reynolds to remain skeptical of a huge leap in statistical returns.
5) WR Van Jefferson, Los Angeles Rams (ADP: 19:10)
Jefferson has the skills to shine but lacks the clear opportunity to get it done. He’s only draftable in best-ball leagues but belongs in the back of your mind in the event something happens to Cooper Kupp or Robert Woods.
6) WR Nico Collins, Houston Texans (ADP: 17:10)
The 6-foot-4 rookie has a decent opportunity to become a weapon in the red zone, and the Texans have a lack of established playmakers after Brandin Cooks to expand his upside. However, the looming concerns with Deshaun Watson overshadows any positive working in Collins’ favor.
