Tag: fantasy football DFS

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 16

Will this inconsistent Giant come up big in the Twin Cities?

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 16

Tracking my predictions: 4-10-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing

2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1

Denver Broncos tight end Greg Dulcich wasn’t able to overcome Brett Rypien at quarterback despite a tremendous matchup opportunity, so last week was yet another bust. Momentum hasn’t been on my side this year.

Let’s see if we can’t get back on track this week and finish the season on a strong note over the next few weeks.

WR Darius Slayton, New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings

This one intrigues me from the basic angle of someone in this offense will have a fine fantasy day from the wide receiver position. My preferred option is the best bang for your buck, or at least lineup spot, and it has to be Slayton for that reason. While Richie James ultimately may outdo him, he doesn’t offer as high of a ceiling as Slayton. James’ floor is a little safer, though.

We’ve seen a mild resurgence from Slayton in 2022. He has averaged 10.5 PPR points on the year — his best per-game rate since being a rookie in 2019 (12.1 PPR/game). Averaging a career-high 15.8 yards per reception, the vertical threat’s six outings of 11-plus PPR points this season actually account for one more than his five performances of fewer than 10 points. Since Week 7, his floor is 6.2 points.

Some of the risk being assumed here stems from him failing to get into double figures in three of the last four contests as well as having scored no touchdowns over the most recent five outings.

Minnesota fortunately hosts this one in a dome, which is an enticing additional factor that could sway gamers toward Slayton when so many teams are playing outdoors in horrendous weather conditions as a massive storm is being delivered in time for Christmas.

Slayton has drawn target totals of 10, six, eight, three, and seven, respectively, over the last five weeks. The Giants have serious question marks at the position, so competition for touches isn’t a major concern. It isn’t meant to be if he cannot generate meaningful fantasy numbers on even six looks.

The Vikings are capable of hoisting a large number of points onto the scoreboard, and the Giants have allowed 28-plus to their opponents three times in the last five contests. A result of having such a strong offense tends to be a defense seeing excessive passing volume as enemies try to keep pace or climb back into a game.

Since Week 10, wideouts have averaged the fourth-most receptions and second-most yards per outing, helping manufacture the fourth-best fantasy matchup in PPR (5th in standard). Minnesota is one of three teams to have allowed more than 1,000 yards to wideouts in that time frame, and this matchup is 22.6 percent better than average during those five weeks. In the last three games, this one sits 34.3 percent easier to exploit. Twenty-three times in 2022 a wideout has made it into double-digit PPR land, and nearly 40 percent of those efforts have come after Week 10 wrapped up.

Slayton is a risky option by any standard, and even against a defense that has allowed so much work to wideouts, Daniel Jones needs to play better than average to put the receiver on the right track. Most quarterbacks have had their way with the Vikings in ’22, and Jones should be good enough to make Slayton a nice lineup stocking stuffer.

My projection: 8 targets, 6 receptions, 77 yards, 1 TD (19.7 PPR fantasy points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 15

A perfect confluence of events should make a TE1 out of this rookie.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 15

Tracking my predictions: 4-9-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing

2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1

Woohoo! Last week, Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff not only met my projection of 22.85 points but exceeded it by nearly 23 percent. Let’s see if there’s any momentum behind it to extend this success another week.

TE Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos vs. Arizona Cardinals

The promising rookie has managed to post several fantasy-relevant performances in 2022, but they’ve come at an erratic spacing. On a per-contest basis, if the benchmark for games played is Dulcich’s eight appearances, he enters Week 15 ranked 12th in PPR scoring.

He has evenly split those eight games with half being good for at least 11.1 PPR but no more than Week 13’s 14.5. In the other outings, the UCLA product finished with results of 2.1, 7.0, 3.1, and 7.2 fantasy points. Dulcich hasn’t scored since Week 6.

With the ebbs and flows of his game established, one other factor comes into play: Russell Wilson (concussion) is in jeopardy of missing this interconference meeting. His absence would turn the reins over to Brett Rypien. On the surface, it’s easy to see why this would be of concern to gamers, but in the Week 7 meeting vs. the New York Jets, with Wilson on the trainer’s table, Dulcich drew a personal-best nine targets from Rypien. He corralled six of them for 51 yards without a score.

In the past two weeks, Dulcich has been targeted eight times apiece, landing nine for 14.1 yards per grab. He has at least three targets in each game played and five or more in all but three showings. This week, he could once again see a large share of the target total as Courtland Sutton (hamstring) is day-to-day after having to sit last week.

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Arizona’s defense has been laughably bad vs. tight ends in 2022, and it hasn’t really turned the corner at any point. Over the most recent five weeks of play, tight ends have averaged the fifth-most fantasy points per game in PPR, third most in non-PPR, and top-10 figures for the three fantasy-point-generating stats.

Since Week 9, the Cardinals have allowed five receptions (8th most) for 64 yards (5th) per contest, and only nine defenses have been easier to score on. Over the course of 2022, TEs have produced averages of 6.6 catches and 73.1 yards, scoring once every 9.6 catches. Ten opposing tight ends have posted at least 10 PPR points this year, and half were good for 17 or more points. The matchup rating is a massive 55.2 percent better than average.

With a lack of a downfield presence, likely no Sutton, a backfield offering nothing of note as checkdowns, and a relatively inexperienced passer poised to start, many signs point to a strong game for the rookie.

My projection: 8 targets, 7 receptions, 63 yards, 1 TD (19.3 PPR fantasy points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 14

Can the Motor City Kitties keep their momentum going vs. the incoming Norsemen?

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 14

Tracking my predictions: 3-9-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing

2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1

When it rains, it pours … apparently even inside of a dome.

Last week, New York Jets wideout Elijah Moore was featured in this spot, and much of the reason was due to the matchup itself, but the much-needed targets instead went to Corey Davis as he posted his strongest day since Week 4. Moore, on the other hand, and quarterback Mike White weren’t in sync, and the young wideout returned to obscurity.

That’s another scenario where I was on the right track but it didn’t pan out as expected. I’m inching closer to renaming this column “Horseshoes and Hand Grenades” by the day.

Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff vs. Minnesota Vikings

We’re picking on the Vikings again in Week 14 by siding with a divisional foe against a shaky pass defense. Detroit’s offense has been on the upswing of late, and one thing Minnesota does fairly well is stop running backs, so anticipating Goff being asked to sling it more than usual is a reasonable train of thought. Only six defenses have given up fewer rushing yards per to the position on the year, and Detroit may find less room than usual to get the ground game going.

Minnesota has allowed quarterbacks to average 24 fantasy points per game in 2022 as the fourth-weakest defense of the position. Even the likes of Mike White and Mac Jones exceeded that mark vs. the Vikings in the last two games. In the past five games, the Vikings haven’t improved, and just Tennessee has allowed more yards per game through the air. Some of that is due to the Vikings being able to put opponents into holes on the scoreboard, emphasizing a need to heave the ball to keep pace with this prolific offense.

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A good portion of it is due to the Vikings being weak in the defensive backfield. Detroit has the receiving outlets to do the requisite damage to keep Goff fantasy-relevant one more week, featuring Amon-Ra St. Brown, D’Andre Swift, and DJ Chark Jr. Rookie first-rounder Jameson Williams quietly made his debut in Week 13, and no one should discount peripheral outlets in Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond if Goff is forced to throw in 40-plus times.

The former Ram has tossed multiple TDs in three of the last five games and has at least 20 fantasy points in consecutive outings. Back in the Week 3 meeting vs. the Vikes, Goff threw for 277 yards, one TD and a pick. This go-around, look for a similar game scrip to develop.

Six teams on bye make Goff a much more palatable play, but gamers willing to take the plunge will be rewarded with a strong QB1 finish.

My projection: 28-of-44, 311 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 3 rushing yards (22.85 fantasy points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 13

After taking flight last week, will this young Jet crash and burn in Week 13?

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 13

Tracking my predictions: 3-8-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing

2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1

I’ve made some close calls this year that didn’t break in my favor, and I have whiffed on a few others, but the projection of Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce last week was off by a country mile. As written in the piece, the massive risk was abundantly clear, but I can’t say a two-target shutout was even 5 percent likely in my mind.

As I’ve stated more than once, being wrong isn’t what wears on me as much as the idea someone may have wasted a valuable lineup spot on such a blown call. The only redeeming factor here is all 32 teams played last week, which diminished the need for anyone to gamble on Pierce.

With that disaster behind us, this week’s recommendation isn’t too far off in terms of being a low-floor, moderate-ceiling play for those looking to lean into a risk-reward decision.

New York Jets WR Elijah Moore at Minnesota Vikings

Last week, the Jets made the bold decision to move on from 2020 first-round pick Zach Wilson, and subsequent reports confirm he’s done in New York. This led to naming Mike White the starter, a move that proved to be correct after he tossed three touchdowns and 315 yards worth of completions.

Two of those throws went to second-year receiver Elijah Moore, whose season has been entirely forgettable after being demoted and ultimately not granted his trade request. The pair of targets went for 64 yards and a score, his only of the year, and Moore reminded the world what he is capable of as a playmaker.

Interestingly — this is part of the risk involved — last week’s two-look performance was the second-lowest target count of his prior seven games with a combination of Joe Flacco and Wilson. He becomes a much safer play if White delivers closer to the seven targets Moore averaged through the first three weeks with Flacco, but there’s always the big-play nature to fall back on. Much like with Pierce, this one isn’t for the faint of heart, though there’s quite a bit to like about Moore’s situation.

Last year, prior to getting injured in Week 9, White sent a 19-yard TD strike Moore’s way. In White’s breakout performance vs. Cincinnati the previous week, the then-rookie caught all six targets for 67 yards.

As the fourth-weakest PPR unit vs. the position, Minnesota has been owned by wideouts in 2022, especially over the last five games. Since Week 7, the ranking jumps to No. 2 on the strength of having allowed six of the nine total TDs to the position in that time. The per-game number of fantasy points allowed is 18.6 percent greater than the rest of the league, but that figure basically doubled in the most recent five contests. Sixteen receivers have posted at least 10 PPR points against the Vikings this year, and 11 of the performances were good for 15 or more.

Facing Minnesota also presents the opportunity for a potential shootout scenario, or at least garbage-time points from the Jets. New York has been formidable vs. the pass all year, though the Vikings have plenty of ways to attack, and this factor adds a little more incentive to gambling on Moore. As mentioned, he’s extremely hazardous, so judge how much risk you’re willing to assume from the flex spot.

My projection: 6 targets, 5 receptions, 68 yards, 1 TD (17.8 PPR fantasy points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 12

This Colt has a chance to gallop, but he may buck you right off in the process.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 12

Tracking my predictions: 3-7-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing

2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1

Well, well, well … what do you know, I finally returned to the winner’s circle last week with the promotion of New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones in this space. I projected 21-for-29, 215 yards, 1 TD pass, 55 rushing yards, 1 TD (26.25 fantasy points), and he finished with a line of 27-for-44, 341 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 50 rushing yards, and 1 TD (28.64 points).

Not. Too. Shabby.

Indianapolis Colts WR Alec Pierce vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

This one won’t be as palatable with 26 remaining teams yet to play. What makes Pierce an even riskier play is his lack of production in the last five games. Not only did he struggle to generate fantasy football production in that window, Pierce had barely been in the game plan. In that time frame, we’ve seen Parris Campbell emerge as the safer as well as more prolific option from this receiving corps.

Suffice it to say, Pierce is about as risky as they come and appears to have run face first into the rookie wall without wearing his helmet.

Last week, we witnessed a potential reversal of fortunes when Matt Ryan sent 38.1 percent of the positional targets the rookie’s way. The results were paltry as Pierce landed just three of the looks for a mere 28 yards, which is forgivable vs. a tough Philadelphia secondary. Pierce drew only nine targets over the prior three games combined and landed just four.

On the year, prior to Ryan’s benching, Pierce was consistently involved and rather productive, thanks to his vertical traits. Those skills will come in handy vs. a Steelers defense that has allowed the second-highest average yards per reception (15.6) in the last five weeks. Only three teams have given up a higher efficiency rating for fantasy points generated per catch. The 15th-most receptions a game have produced the fifth-most aerial yards, and a TD every 9.8 grabs is the seventh-highest frequency. Pierce has averaged 15.1 yards per grab in 2022, and he has managed to eclipse that mark in five contests.

On the year, this matchup 25.9 percent better than the league average for PPR points allowed, and this figure jumps to 34.9 percent in formats that don’t reward receptions. Eleven wideouts have scored 10 or more fantasy points — and that’s in standard scoring. Add five more such efforts to the list in PPR leagues.

Running back Jonathan Taylor may have a difficult time finding success on the ground, and that bodes well for Indy being forced to pass more than usual.

If you’re averse to taking wild risks and likely committing unforced errors, you’ll find safer options with similar upside. For gamers who are feeling extra frisky or, better yet, playing in DFS showdown contests, Pierce is an intriguing risk-reward flier.

My projection: 7 targets, 4 receptions, 68 yards, 1 TD (16.8 PPR fantasy points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 11

Can the Lions make Daniel Jones a QB1 in Week 11?

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 11

Tracking my predictions: 2-7-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing

2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1

Something tells me I made this reference before, but this season’s series feels like I’ve been a poker player on tilt. Every single time I invest in a player, situation or matchup in this space, it seems as though I’m chasing the next week to catch up. It’s easy to lose track of the fact that every single player in this series is a gamble and not a lock, so I need to occasionally remind myself this is intended to be much closer to Keno than video poker or blackjack.

Lamenting aside, we’ll dive right into Week 11’s player rather than dwell on why I was brash (read as “stupid”) enough to roll with a Carolina Panthers receiver last week.

New York Giants QB Daniel Jones vs. Detroit Lions

Jones isn’t an option for the faint of heart. He has 20 or more fantasy points in two of the last three games but just 10.8 points sandwiched in between. Jones’ role has been mostly that of a game manager in 2022, and he has thrown zero TD passes in four of nine contests.

The one thing head coach Brian Daboll rarely has been given enough credit for in his coaching career is molding his play designs and the implementation of such to the strengths of his personnel. Prior to the ascension of Josh Allen into a star quarterback, Buffalo’s offense was heavily reliant on the running game, because that’s where the talent was centralized. Daboll’s previous stops also showcase his understanding of how to best utilize his available assets.

We’re seeing it play out in real time with the Giants. This team has one of the best running backs on this side of the Milky Way, and New York’s receiving corps is among the least impressive in the league. Rather than having Jones sling it like he has something to prove — which he still does — Daboll’s understanding of this has created a more efficient version of Jones. That’s not necessarily the best thing in fantasy, but it follows a proven blueprint.

Playing within bounds of a system that is deliberately catered to the confines its personnel can occasionally result in massive spikes in production, as we’ve seen with the inconsistency in Jones’ fantasy offerings.

The sheer volatility will scare off most risk-averse owners, and that’s quite all right. In Week 11, Jones has a chance to exploit a Detroit defense that ranks as the worst unit in football vs. quarterbacks. No team has given up more fantasy points on the year, and much of the success is due to four rushing TDs allowed.

Despite allowing those ground scores to QBs — which plays strongly into Jones’ style of play — this remains the top matchup even when those touchdowns are pulled out of the stats against Detroit. The Lions rank as the best opponent for efficiency for generating fantasy points. This opponent is the seventh easiest for yardage per game through the air and No. 5 in touchdown efficiency allowed.

Six quarterbacks have racked up at least 22.6 fantasy points against the Lions, and four of those efforts went into the 30s. Dak Prescott is the only mildly mobile quarterback who didn’t manage relevant stats on the ground. Jalen Hurts (17-90-1), Geno Smith (7-49-1), and Justin Fields (13-147-2) all racked up points, and even a geriatric Aaron Rodgers (4-40-0) turned back the clock a few years vs. this group.

The matchup profiles well for a gamble on Jones in a week in which three viable starting QBs are on bye. This week, trust him vs. Detroit’s laughable defense of the position.

My projection: 21-for-29, 215 yards, 1 TD pass, 55 rushing yards, 1 TD (26.25 fantasy points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 10

This former LSU Tiger is trying to claw his way into fantasy relevance.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 10

Tracking my predictions: 2-6-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing

2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1

A lot of swinging and missing thus far … last week’s recommendation of Green Bay Packers running back AJ Dillon was a total flop. It is difficult to reconcile — regardless of how bad Green Bay has been — that the Lions managed shut out any offense until 3:22 left in the third and hold even the Packers to just nine points.

When making a prediction that hinges on game flow going in a specific direction, it’s basically impossible to make up any ground if the matchup doesn’t play out in such a way. This time out we’ll take a stab at an trending wide receiver on a terrible team and hope for a little bit of luck for a change.

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons

It is just a numbers game. Carolina traded away both Robbie Anderson and Christian McCaffrey in the past several weeks, which created a massive opportunity for the second-year wideout to step up his game. Prior to just a couple of weeks ago, Marshall was trending into the territory of being a second-round bust, and there had been rumors about the team’s willingness to trade him away.

Over the last two games, Carolina has increased Marshall’s playing time and target share. He accounted for 28.1 percent of the Week 8 target share vs. Atlanta, securing four of nine looks for 87 yards. Last Sunday, with a mixture of PJ Walker and Baker Mayfield at quarterback, the LSU product tied WR DJ Moore for the team lead in targets with six (22.2 percent). Marshall secured his first NFL receiving TD in the contest.

Walker has been named the Week 10 starter after being benched, and while he has favored Moore 23-to-13 since McCaffrey was dealt, no other player in that time was within six looks. Tommy Tremble isn’t much of a target threat at tight end, and neither of the primary running backs are consistent receiving outlets. Furthermore, in what is a lost season, the Panthers need to find out what they have in Marshall prior to his third NFL offseason. The point being, even though the sample size is small, Carolina has few other capable options.

In the Week 8 meeting, Atlanta managed a 37-34 overtime win in what proved to be the Falcons’ highest-scoring offensive day of 2022. Little has changed since to expect these teams to be capable of stopping the opponent. Atlanta still faces major injury concerns in the secondary and has allowed WRs to average the most receptions and second-most yards in the past five weeks.

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No team has given up more points in standard scoring and just Pittsburgh has been worse in PPR. Six touchdowns have been scored, coming at the 14th-highest frequency. On the year, Atlanta is the biggest cupcake of them all, and a dozen TD grabs have come vs. this pushover.

The Falcons also stink vs. running backs, and D’Onta Foreman dismantled this unit in the earlier game. Even though he still racked up 118 rushing yards and a trio of scores, the Panthers still had to pass enough to send the aforementioned nine passes Marshall’s way, which should be encouraging.

While it’s a tad optimistic to expect nine targets again, the efficiency metrics vs. Atlanta make up for it. This is a top-10 opponent for yards per catch (13.9) and No. 12 for fantasy points per touch (1.82). Expect a total score somewhere in the mid-20s for each team, and Marshall should be no worse than a WR3 or flex play, but gamble on his plus-odds of delivering No. 2 returns.

My projection: 7 targets, 5 receptions, 71 yards, 1 TD (18.1 PPR fantasy points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 9

Seven straight weeks of paltry results shouldn’t stop gamers from playing this bruiser.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 9

Tracking my predictions: 2-5-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing

2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1

A tie … meh. Last week’s inclusion of Minnesota Vikings tight end Irv Smith marked the second straight week in which the player chosen for this article series met an untimely fate. After Week 7’s inclusion, Matt Ryan was benched for the remainder of 2022, and Smith now will miss up to 10 weeks after suffering an ankle injury. Given the rules of scoring “winners” and “losers” in this segment, an injury counts as a tie.

Let’s see which player I can kneecap for the third consecutive week …

Green Bay Packers RB AJ Dillon at Detroit Lions

Dillon has to be among the most disappointing preseason darlings of the fantasy football season, and it hasn’t been for a lack of opportunities. He has rushed at least 10 times in six of eight outings and has averaged more targets than last year. Frustratingly, this has amounted to one touchdown — which came a million years ago in Week 1 — and no showings of more than 9.4 PPR points since the opening week.

After nearly two months of being a lineup anchor following the Week 1 teaser, it’s understandable why gamers have given up on Dillon as a weekly starter. The results just haven’t been good enough, and there are only so many times a fantasy owner can risk a precious lineup spot on a string of paperweight performances.

Two simplistic factors are at play to make Dillon a viable Week 9 starter: A fortuitous scheduling of six teams on their byes coincides with an intradivisional date with Detroit’s laughably weak defense. In this case, necessity alone may make Dillon a starter for some gamers, but it’s really the matchup itself to side with in this one.

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Detroit has given up the most rushing TDs in 2022 (11 through seven games), and just Cleveland has allowed more total TDs to the position, which took an extra game to happen. The position has racked up 10 individual performances of at least 11.2 points in PPR scoring. RBs have averaged more than 5.2 yards per carry, and four of the nine players to rush for a TD haven’t even been their respective team’s RB1. This matchup is 19.4 percent easier than the league average for positional success.

One aspect that’s more difficult to account for but still could be working Dillon’s favor is Green Bay’s pathetic passing game. Detroit is equally as terrible at preventing wideouts from wreaking havoc, and it’s a larger leap of faith to assume the Packers’ unimpressive passing attack will find more success through the air than on the ground.

While Aaron Jones will get the majority of chances to gash this group, Dillon shouldn’t be far behind him in touches, especially if this one gets out of hand early on.

My projection: 13 carries, 71 yards, 1 TD, 2 targets, 2 receptions, 13 yards (16.4 PPR fantasy points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 8

This one is all about the matchup itself, so understand the risk at play.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 8

Tracking my predictions: 2-5-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing

2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1

I’ve made a couple of unlucky calls this year, but last week’s choice of Indianapolis Colts quarterback Matt Ryan was so bad that I cannot help but feel like I jinxed him all the way to the pine. In all reality, it wasn’t that poor of a prediction, since he was only 3.9 percent away from qualifying as a win.

No one entered last week thinking Ryan was the future of the Colts’ seemingly never-ending quarterback search, but few people could have seen him getting perma-benched after Week 7 on a team that has been a mess from top to bottom and left to right. While I’m not going to pretend like he hasn’t lost something from a physical standpoint, it’s still an unfortunate way to see a respectable career come to an untimely demise. Barring a bizarre trading scenario midseason or his 2023 release leading a desperate team seeing if there’s one last gasp in him, we’ve likely witnessed the end of Ryan’s time in the NFL.

Regardless, we still need to march on, so this week’s inclusion is another with tremendous risk but an equally exploitable matchup.

TE Irv Smith Jr., Minnesota Vikings vs. Arizona Cardinals

As mentioned, it should be abundantly clear to anyone considering Smith this week that the matchup is the driving force here. For his part, Smith as at least four targets in every game since Week 1’s two-look shutout, and he hasn’t seen more than six passes come his way following an eight-target Week 2.

The results just haven’t been there. A 62 percent catch rate is adequate, though Smith hasn’t done anything with the receptions. He posted a 4-42-0 line in Week 5, which was followed up with an impressively bad seven-yard performance on four catches in Week 6. Smith scored a TD to salvage some value in that one.

Minnesota returns from its bye week to face an Arizona defense that has given up the second-most fantasy points per game to the position in PPR scoring. No team has allowed more receptions, and only Seattle permitted more yardage in the first seven weeks of the season.

The Seahawks rank as the easiest defense to exploit after giving up three rushing touchdowns to the position, which is due to facing “tight end” Taysom Hill. Remove those TDs and Arizona is by far the weakest unit vs. pass-catching tight ends. Six players have scored 10 or more fantasy points against the Red Birds, and four of them were good for 17 or more points in PPR.

Kirk Cousins has arguably the top receiver in the game in Justin Jefferson, a proven veteran WR2 in Adam Thielen, and an underrated third outlet in K.J. Osborn, not to mention a capable checkdown in Dalvin Cook. Arizona’s defense of the receiver position has been technically neutral but extremely adept at preventing touchdowns. The last 63 catches by WRs have resulted in exactly one trip into the end zone.

Receivers have posted the 12th-most receptions and 13th-most yards per games in the last five weeks vs. the Cards. The matchups on the outside and shading to slow Jefferson should lead to more action for Smith, and the strength of this defense — the limitation of touchdowns for receivers — is an encouraging sign for the typically judicious Cousins to direct red-zone passes Smith’s way.

Tight end is a volatile position. Between injuries, bye weeks, and erratic play, it’s typically frustrating to find midtier plays from week to week. If streaming the position is your thing by choice or necessity, Smith is among the more favorable gambles of Week 8.

My projection: 7 targets, 5 receptions, 49 yards, 1 TD (15.9 PPR fantasy points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 7

Can this Colt continue to find success in Week 7, or will this trend be bucked?

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 7

Tracking my predictions: 2-4-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing

2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1

How unlucky can one get? Last week’s inclusion of Chicago Bears wideout Darnell Mooney netted 13.8 PPR points of the forecasted 20.7, so it gets chalked up as a loss. It was not only on the right track but a slight bobble at the goal line away from being within a point of the projected finish. Securing the ball a millisecond sooner would have done the job, and it truly is a game of inches at times.

While that’s two of four losses by the slimmest of margins, we don’t let it get in the way of taking calculated risks. Forward we go …

QB Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

Perhaps recency bias is at play here, but these division rivals met just three weeks ago, and Ryan tossed a pair of touchdowns, one interception, and 356 yards worth of completions for 25.4 fantasy points. Since, the Colts have battled injuries in the backfield with Nyheim Hines (concussion), Jonathan Taylor (ankle), and Deon Jackson (quad) all missing varying amounts of time in the past two games.

While Hines is ready to return, and Jackson will be available if Taylor cannot go, the most successful way to attack this vulnerable defense is through the air. On the ground, running backs have averaged the third-fewest fantasy points, scoring a single touchdown in 2022 vs. Tennessee. This defense has given up an average of 44.3 PPR points per game to WRs, which is tied for the most in the league, powered by eight TD grabs on only 68 receptions. Tight ends also have found considerable success.

The Titans have surrendered at least 317 passing yards in four straight contests, and every quarterback to face Tennessee this season has tossed a pair of TD passes or more. The Washington Commanders are the only team to have yielded passing scores at a higher rate than Mike Vrabel’s squad. Just four of 180 attempts have been intercepted, and the position hasn’t rushed for any meaningful stats to skew this matchup in favor of more athletic QBs than the stationary Ryan. Four of the five outings have resulted in three or fewer sacks tallied by the Titans.

So what does that look like in fantasy? Throwing for 300 yards and two touchdowns — we’ll even include an interception based on Ryan having thrown at least one in four of six appearances as a Colt — produces 22 fantasy points. And barring unforeseen circumstances working against Indy, this should be considered Ryan’s floor.

My projection: 319 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 1 rushing yard (23.05 PPR fantasy points)