Tag: fantasy football consistency

Fantasy Football Top-10 Repeatability: Wide Receivers

Take a step back and see how the Top-10 WRs change from year to year.

Wide receivers are the most plentiful position given that offenses use two or three on most plays. And value exists further out than it does on running backs as the only other position that requires more than one fantasy starter. That all said, a Top-10 wide receiver makes a difference, producing far better stats and consistent results each week.

see: Quarterback | Running back | Tight end

Fantasy drafters naturally raid the previous Top-10 in the first couple of rounds, and there’s even a “Zero RB” strategy where teams load up on wideouts and later collect whatever running backs that are still left. In the end, it’s all about picking the right players. This summer, a first round may hold more wideouts than any other position. That’s quite the transition from years past where maybe one or two may have been selected. Running backs and wide receivers have almost completely swapped their perceived value in the eyes of fantasy drafters.

Check out just how volatile the Top-10 has been for the last five seasons.

Chance of repeating Top-10 = 50%

Wide receivers have long been one of the most consistent players to repeat an elite year. Consider that Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, and Davante Adams are currently on four-year streaks and would have been joined by Justin Jefferson had he not been injured last season.

Whereas running backs are in constant flux, there is a lot of reliability with wideouts. Always bet on the talent with wide receivers, much more than their situation.

A look at two years back is just as revealing. Consider the Top-10 from 2021 compared to last year:

Hunter Renfrow (No. 10) was the only Cinderella in the bunch.The other three that fell were all injured. You could draft wideouts with a two-year old cheatsheet and still likely end up with a solid group for your fantasy team.

Fantasy Football Top-10 Repeatability: Tight Ends

Take a step back and see how the Top-10 tight ends change from year to year.

Elite tight ends are notoriously thin in the fantasy world, so it is no big surprise to see a high amount of volatile players from year to year. It is a position that really only offers about three or four players with any real difference-making statistics.

Also see: Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver 

Chance of repeating Top-10 = 60%

The reality with tight ends is that the Top-5 tend to dominate the fantasy scoring for the position, and the rest make minimal difference, if any. But the position is improving each year in terms of increasing their roles on their respective teams.

Had Mark Andrews remained healthy, he would have pushed the tight ends up even higher. The exciting development is that four of the Top-10 came from a sub-No. 40 finish in 2022. Sam LaPorta was an exception for the ages as a break out rookie, but Trey McBride and Jake Ferguson both showed up in the Top-10 in just their second season, after a little-used rookie year.

The general rule with tight ends is that if they’ve had back-to-back Top-10 seasons, that they offer reliable value. The position is expanding in use by NFL teams and are starting to remake how receivers contribute.

Fantasy Football Top-10 Repeatability: Tight Ends

Take a step back and see how the Top-10 tight ends change from year to year.

Elite tight ends are notoriously thin in the fantasy world, so it is no big surprise to see a high amount of volatile players from year to year. It is a position that really only offers about three or four players with any real difference-making statistics.

Also see: QB | RB | WR

Top-10 TEs 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018
Travis Kelce 1 2 1 1 1
George Kittle 2 4 19 3 3
Mark Andrews 3 1 6 5 17
Evan Engram 4 23 14 18 13
Tyler Higbee 5 13 18 8 33
Pat Freiermuth 6 12 0 0 0
Cole Kmet 7 21 41 0 0
Dalton Schultz 8 3 10 115 70
David Njoku 9 22 47 84 9
Dallas Goedert 10 8 20 10 20
Kyle Pitts 34 5 0 0 0
Rob Gronkowski 0 6 8 0 11
Hunter Henry 22 7 12 9 0
Mike Gesicki 23 9 7 12 49
Dawson Knox 12 10 35 29 0
Darren Waller 31 16 2 2 81
Robert Tonyan 19 48 3 62 78
Logan Thomas 33 44 4 50 74
T.J. Hockenson 47 14 5 32 0
Hayden Hurst 21 35 9 34 60
Zach Ertz 20 67 33 4 2
Eric Ebron 0 65 15 27 4
Jared Cook 0 18 17 7 5
Austin Hooper 24 24 21 6 6
Kyle Rudolph 90 41 38 16 7
Trey Burton 0 0 27 70 8
Vance McDonald 0 0 67 31 10
Top-10 Repeats 5 4 3 5

The Top-3 have been around for about five years each, and the rest have so much volatility that you’re likely to be disappointed if you reach for anyone outside of Travis Kelce, George Kittle, or Mark Andrews. Dallas Goedert has been Top-10 in three of the last four years and yet never better than No. 8. Has he been a difference-maker of any note? Not really. In a reception point league, those Top-3 are really the only difference makers and offer rare consistency.

Fantasy Football Top-10 Repeatability: Wide Receivers

Take a step back and see how the Top-10 WRs change from year to year.

Wide receivers are the most plentiful position given that offenses use two or three on most plays. And value exists further out than it does on running backs as the only other position that requires more than one fantasy starter. That all said, a Top-10 wide receiver makes a difference, producing far better stats and consistent results each week.

Also see: QB | RB | TE

Fantasy drafters naturally raid the previous Top-10 in the first couple of rounds, and there’s even a “Zero RB” strategy where teams load up on wideouts and later collect whatever running backs that are still left. In the end, it’s all about picking the right players. This summer, a first round may hold more wideouts than any other position. That’s quite the transition from years past where maybe one or two may have been selected. Running backs and wide receivers have almost completely swapped their perceived value in the eyes of fantasy drafters.

Check out just how volatile the Top-10 has been for the last five seasons.

Top-10   WRs 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018
Justin Jefferson 1 4 7 0 0
Tyreek Hill 2 6 2 32 3
Davante Adams 3 2 1 24 4
Stefon Diggs 4 7 3 20 11
A.J. Brown 5 32 14 21 0
CeeDee Lamb 6 19 24 0 0
Amon-Ra St. Brown 7 22 0 0 0
Jaylen Waddle 8 12 0 0 0
DeVonta Smith 9 29 0 0 0
Amari Cooper 10 27 15 10 149
Cooper Kupp 23 1 26 4 48
Deebo Samuel 36 3 95 31 0
Ja’Marr Chase 11 5 0 0 0
Diontae Johnson 32 8 21 39 0
Mike Evans 17 9 12 16 9
Hunter Renfrow 91 10 57 53 0
DeAndre Hopkins 47 45 4 5 1
Calvin Ridley 0 100 5 27 19
DK Metcalf 14 15 6 30 0
Tyler Lockett 13 16 8 13 16
Allen Robinson II 0 83 9 7 37
Keenan Allen 38 11 10 6 12
Michael Thomas 116 0 93 1 6
Chris Godwin 18 13 31 2 25
Julio Jones 96 91 52 3 2
Julian Edelman 0 0 113 8 21
Kenny Golladay 150 78 103 9 20
Antonio Brown 0 58 64 156 5
Adam Thielen 31 28 11 63 7
JuJu Smith-Schuster 27 135 16 61 8
Robert Woods 56 52 13 14 10
Top-10 Repeats 4 4 3 3

This shows just how consistently elite that Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, and Stefon Diggs have been for the last three years. Interesting too that there have been no wideout with more than three straight Top-10 performances over the last five years. And that block of four receivers are all entering their fourth season.

The other six from 2021 all fell significantly. Half of the Top-10 from last year were no better than No. 19 the previous season. Half of the 2022 Top-10 experienced their first Top-10 year.

Over the last five years, only 12 of the 31 receivers that reached the Top-10 in a season did so in any of the other four. Take away those top four wideouts, and no wideout repeated a Top-10 the next season for the last two years.

The position enjoys more fantasy popularity than ever, but the repeatability of a Top-10 wideout has been zero outside of the top four. That’s not to say they lose all value. They continue to provide WR2 or WR3 stats, but lack the difference-making of that top tier. There’s a fair amount of transition at the top tier with that set of four heading into all new territory while going for their fourth-straight Top-10 year.