Tag: fantasy football ADP

Examining recent fantasy football ADP data

Which players stood out the most in a look at recent ADP results?

Every fantasy football draft season creates what is known as “average draft position” data (ADP), which gamers can utilize to help find trends and get a feel for current valuation tendencies.

It’s a fair way for novice players to relate positional value and also contrast how other drafters perceive worth vs. other positions. That said, it’s easy to get caught up in the numbers and fixate too much on them.

Don’t become enamored with the raw data, especially if you’re unable to validate the source material. For example, mock drafters may not be as likely to put forth earnest effort and/or could be willing to take wild risks in relation to making picks when that actually count for something.

[lawrence-related id=478973]

Utilizing ADP data as guidelines is fine, but getting wrapped up in strictly adhering to them will get you in trouble. It’s always a positive to know whereabouts players tend to get selected within a few rounds’ margin or to develop a feel for positional runs — such as how many of the safe QB1s or No. 1 tight ends go in the first eight rounds, on average. ADP never should be treated as the be all, end all.

With that out of the way, here’s commentary from the most recent ADP chart from RTSports.com. The data used comes from 12-team, PPR drafts between July 21 to July 27. Players in green are significant movers upward, whereas those highlighted in red have drastically fallen of late.

Pick Rnd Player Pos Team Bye Notes
1.61 1 Justin Jefferson WR MIN 13
1.83 1 Christian McCaffrey RB SF 9
3.17 1 Ja’Marr Chase WR CIN 7
4.52 1 Austin Ekeler RB LAC 5
6.35 1 Cooper Kupp WR LAR 10
7.81 1 Travis Kelce TE KC 10
8.01 1 Bijan Robinson RB ATL 11
8.15 1 Saquon Barkley RB NYG 13 Holdout threat is gone after signing new one-year deal
8.28 1 Tyreek Hill WR MIA 10
10.57 1 Jonathan Taylor RB IND 11 Contractual situation seems to have building frustration with the organization
10.95 1 Nick Chubb RB CLE 5
12.69 2 CeeDee Lamb WR DAL 7
15.45 2 Stefon Diggs WR BUF 13
15.50 2 Josh Jacobs RB LV 13 Lengthy holdout expected, perhaps into the preseason
15.64 2 Tony Pollard RB DAL 7
16.11 2 A.J. Brown WR PHI 10
17.70 2 Davante Adams WR LV 13
18.68 2 Garrett Wilson WR NYJ 7 May slip a spot or two coming up after suffering a minor injury in camp
20.18 2 Derrick Henry RB TEN 7
20.33 2 Amon-Ra St. Brown WR DET 9
20.50 2 Josh Allen QB BUF 13
20.57 2 Rhamondre Stevenson RB NE 11 Patriots’ overtures toward signing another RB is disconcerting
21.33 2 Patrick Mahomes QB KC 10
24.56 3 Najee Harris RB PIT 6
26.73 3 Breece Hall RB NYJ 7 Dalvin Cook visiting on 7/27 sends a clear message over Hall’s health
27.31 3 Jaylen Waddle WR MIA 10
27.51 3 DeVonta Smith WR PHI 10
27.52 3 Jalen Hurts QB PHI 10
28.47 3 Chris Olave WR NO 11
30.68 3 Travis Etienne RB JAX 9
31.54 3 Mark Andrews TE BAL 13
33.80 3 Kenneth Walker III RB SEA 5
34.45 3 Jahmyr Gibbs RB DET 9
36.02 4 Joe Burrow QB CIN 7 Should start to fall a few spots after suffering calf strain in practice
36.87 4 Tee Higgins WR CIN 7
37.74 4 Dameon Pierce RB HOU 7
37.97 4 Joe Mixon RB CIN 7
39.94 4 D.K. Metcalf WR SEA 5
42.17 4 Miles Sanders RB CAR 7
42.38 4 Amari Cooper WR CLE 5
42.43 4 Aaron Jones RB GB 6
42.48 4 Lamar Jackson QB BAL 13
43.99 4 Deebo Samuel WR SF 9
44.56 4 T.J. Hockenson TE MIN 13
45.03 4 J.K. Dobbins RB BAL 13 Mystery absence continues to drive his value down; tread carefully
45.52 4 Terry McLaurin WR WAS 14
48.17 5 Justin Herbert QB LAC 5
48.57 5 Alexander Mattison RB MIN 13
49.88 5 Keenan Allen WR LAC 5
50.87 5 Rachaad White RB TB 5
51.39 5 DeAndre Hopkins WR TEN 7
51.53 5 Dalvin Cook RB FA 13 Awfully large investment for a guy who is bound to share significant touches wherever he signs
52.90 5 Justin Fields QB CHI 13
53.31 5 Calvin Ridley WR JAX 9
55.37 5 D’Andre Swift RB PHI 10
57.12 5 Cam Akers RB LAR 10
57.28 5 George Kittle TE SF 9
60.85 6 James Conner RB ARI 14
62.14 6 Christian Watson WR GB 6
62.50 6 Javonte Williams RB DEN 9 Cleared for camp and will avoid the PUP; still could be overvalued, however
63.57 6 D.J. Moore WR CHI 13
64.23 6 Jerry Jeudy WR DEN 9
64.24 6 Trevor Lawrence QB JAX 9
64.40 6 Mike Williams WR LAC 5
65.35 6 Christian Kirk WR JAX 9 Seemingly overvalued if Calvin Ridley and Evan Engram ADPs prove true
65.73 6 Isiah Pacheco RB KC 10 Coming along nicely from two offseason surgeries
67.43 6 Chris Godwin WR TB 5
67.81 6 Drake London WR ATL 11
68.74 6 Darren Waller TE NYG 13
69.02 6 Kyle Pitts TE ATL 11
71.18 6 David Montgomery RB DET 9
71.81 6 James Cook RB BUF 13
72.03 7 Dallas Goedert TE PHI 10
73.79 7 Michael Pittman Jr. WR IND 11
74.11 7 Tyler Lockett WR SEA 5
75.41 7 Antonio Gibson RB WAS 14
75.66 7 Brandon Aiyuk WR SF 9
77.52 7 AJ Dillon RB GB 6
80.49 7 Alvin Kamara RB NO 11 Seeing slight bump after reaching a plea deal but still a facing possible suspension
81.33 7 Diontae Johnson WR PIT 6
81.50 7 Mike Evans WR TB 5 Tough to justify how undervalued he has been all summer, even with a shaky QB situation
82.86 7 Marquise Brown WR ARI 14
85.40 8 George Pickens WR PIT 6
85.52 8 Deshaun Watson QB CLE 5
87.40 8 Brian Robinson Jr. RB WAS 14 Sound value for an RB3 if you miss out on the more obvious options
88.53 8 Jamaal Williams RB NO 11
90.55 8 Dak Prescott QB DAL 7
91.23 8 De’Von Achane RB MIA 10
92.55 8 Khalil Herbert RB CHI 13
93.46 8 Kadarius Toney WR KC 10 Torn knee cartilage WR puts Week 1 in jeopardy; stock will plummet once news catches up
93.92 8 Jordan Addison WR MIN 13
94.04 8 Treylon Burks WR TEN 7 Seeing a dip in his ADP after DeAndre Hopkins signing; offering strong WR3 value
94.15 8 Samaje Perine RB DEN 9 Small decline thanks to Javonte Williams being healthy enough to avoid PUP
96.34 9 Evan Engram TE JAX 9
96.61 9 Pat Freiermuth TE PIT 6
99.38 9 Jahan Dotson WR WAS 14
99.44 9 Zach Charbonnet RB SEA 5
99.61 9 Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR SEA 5
99.84 9 Rashaad Penny RB PHI 10
101.44 9 Courtland Sutton WR DEN 9
102.30 9 Brandin Cooks WR DAL 7 Pretty sweet value this late in drafts
103.64 9 Tua Tagovailoa QB MIA 10
104.57 9 David Njoku TE CLE 5 Continues to be overvalued
105.18 9 Michael Thomas WR NO 11 Could see his ADP rise with a healthy showing in camp
105.61 9 Damien Harris RB BUF 13
109.01 10 Daniel Jones QB NYG 13
112.09 10 Gabriel Davis WR BUF 13
113.88 10 San Francisco 49ers DEF SF 9
114.06 10 Elijah Mitchell RB SF 9
114.40 10 D’Onta Foreman RB CHI 13 Appears to be the third wheel between Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson
115.35 10 Odell Beckham Jr. WR BAL 13
115.56 10 Kirk Cousins QB MIN 13
116.94 10 Jared Goff QB DET 9
119.30 10 Jerick McKinnon RB KC 10
119.30 10 JuJu Smith-Schuster WR NE 11 If healthy, he presents a worthwhile gamble
119.58 10 Elijah Moore WR CLE 5
120.02 11 Dalton Kincaid TE BUF 13
120.26 11 Geno Smith QB SEA 5
122.07 11 Aaron Rodgers QB NYJ 7
125.13 11 Chigoziem Okonkwo TE TEN 7
125.36 11 Dalton Schultz TE HOU 7 Presents tremendous value in PPR, although it seems like gamers are starting to catch on
125.95 11 Philadelphia Eagles DEF PHI 10
126.93 11 Jameson Williams WR DET 9 DET acquired Denzel Mims, who offers a similar skill set. Use that to your advantage to stash Williams
128.04 11 Quentin Johnston WR LAC 5
128.81 11 Justin Tucker K BAL 13
131.66 11 Anthony Richardson QB IND 11
132.88 12 Kareem Hunt RB FA 5
133.75 12 Jaylen Warren RB PIT 6
134.81 12 Russell Wilson QB DEN 9
135.39 12 Adam Thielen WR CAR 7 Thielen’s stock continues to climb as Bryce Young’s reputation builds
135.78 12 Allen Lazard WR NYJ 7
136.40 12 Tyler Allgeier RB ATL 11
136.41 12 Kendre Miller RB NO 11 Lingering recovery from knee injury has him falling, in addition to Alvin Kamara accepting plea deal
136.65 12 Tank Bigsby RB JAX 9 Solidifying himself as a primary backup with a possible role near the goal line; nice value buy
137.62 12 Devin Singletary RB HOU 7
139.44 12 Ezekiel Elliott RB FA 7
140.42 12 Dallas Cowboys DEF DAL 7
142.64 12 Rondale Moore WR ARI 14
143.34 12 Raheem Mostert RB MIA 10 Miami appears to be out of the Dalvin Cook sweepstakes, which bodes well for Mostert
143.39 12 Zay Flowers WR BAL 13 Practicing at three positions and drawing praise. Bump from Rashod Bateman on PUP
145.49 13 Greg Dulcich TE DEN 9
146.49 13 Donovan Peoples-Jones WR CLE 5
146.84 13 Rashod Bateman WR BAL 13 Placed on PUP while recovering from foot injury
147.67 13 New England Patriots DEF NE 11
148.65 13 Tyler Higbee TE LAR 10
148.70 13 Leonard Fournette RB FA 5
149.96 13 Cole Kmet TE CHI 13
150.30 13 Nico Collins WR HOU 7
152.68 13 Daniel Carlson K LV 13
153.02 13 Sam LaPorta TE DET 9 Trending in the right direction to become the team’s starting tight end
153.60 13 Buffalo Bills DEF BUF 13
154.43 13 Derek Carr QB NO 11
155.28 13 Tyjae Spears RB TEN 7 Awesome price point for a handcuff or independent RB5 buy
157.01 14 Romeo Doubs WR GB 6 Has been Jordan Love’s go-to guy this offseason; should be trending upward soon
158.09 14 Skyy Moore WR KC 10 Benefits greatly from Kadarius Toney’s knee injury; will continue to fly up boards
158.22 14 Roschon Johnson RB CHI 13 Criminally undervalued as he’s in a competition for the RB1 role
159.26 14 Chuba Hubbard RB CAR 7
159.39 14 Matthew Stafford QB LAR 10
160.54 14 Cordarrelle Patterson RB ATL 11 Slowly trending upward due to potential pass-catching role
160.71 14 Jakobi Meyers WR LV 13
161.24 14 Kenneth Gainwell RB PHI 10 Nice spot to take a gamble on him being behind two fragile RBs
161.79 14 Tyler Bass K BUF 13
164.82 14 K.J. Osborn WR MIN 13
165.51 14 Baltimore Ravens DEF BAL 13
165.74 14 Irv Smith Jr. TE CIN 7
166.55 14 Jeff Wilson RB MIA 10 De’Von Achane impacts Raheem Mostert more, which isn’t being reflected in ADP data
168.55 15 Darnell Mooney WR CHI 13
168.79 15 Michael Mayer TE LV 13
169.12 15 Evan McPherson K CIN 7
169.14 15 Jerome Ford RB CLE 5 Oddly, he’s falling when he should be rising. One to watch in camp
169.57 15 Tyler Boyd WR CIN 7
170.70 15 Jacksonville Jaguars DEF JAX 9
171.17 15 Jordan Love QB GB 6
172.53 15 Juwan Johnson TE NO 11 Quickly going from sneaky sleeper to risky depth in a crowded TE room
173.80 15 Michael Carter RB NYJ 7
174.69 15 Jonathan Mingo WR CAR 7
175.61 15 Jason Myers K SEA 5
178.58 15 Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB KC 10
178.59 15 Joshua Kelley RB LAC 5
178.66 15 Kyler Murray QB ARI 14 Ever so slightly crawling up boards as he’s receiving more positive health reports
178.89 15 Harrison Butker K KC 10
179.47 15 Wan’Dale Robinson WR NYG 13 Still not healthy and may not be for some time yet
179.59 15 Gus Edwards RB BAL 13
179.79 15 Kansas City Chiefs DEF KC 10
179.92 15 Jalin Hyatt WR NYG 13
180.29 16 Bryce Young QB CAR 7
180.38 16 Zay Jones WR JAX 9
180.56 16 Kenny Pickett QB PIT 6
181.25 16 Parris Campbell WR NYG 13
181.53 16 Chase Brown RB CIN 7
182.46 16 New York Jets DEF NYJ 7
182.59 16 Gerald Everett TE LAC 5
183.25 16 Zach Evans RB LAR 10 Seeing his stock fall with the addition of Sony Michel, despite Evans being a far better talent
184.45 16 Tim Patrick WR DEN 9
184.71 16 Miami Dolphins DEF MIA 10
185.89 16 Taysom Hill TE NO 11
186.74 16 Brock Purdy QB SF 9 Elbow is on track and should remain in the lead for San Fran’s QB1 gig
186.85 16 C.J. Stroud QB HOU 7
186.96 16 Mac Jones QB NE 11
188.21 16 Zach Ertz TE ARI 14
188.47 16 Ryan Tannehill QB TEN 7 Creeping his way up boards following the DeAndre Hopkins signing
189.06 16 Alec Pierce WR IND 11
189.68 16 New Orleans Saints DEF NO 11
189.82 16 Sam Howell QB WAS 14
189.97 16 Rashee Rice WR KC 10
190.17 16 Hunter Henry TE NE 11
190.60 16 Chase Edmonds RB TB 5
190.73 16 Cameron Dicker K LAC 5
191.67 16 Brandon McManus K JAX 9
192.29 17 D’Ernest Johnson RB JAX 9
192.30 17 Pierre Strong Jr. RB NE 11
192.68 17 Jayden Reed WR GB 6
192.84 17 Zack Moss RB IND 11 Challenging for the RB2 role behind a top back adds intrigue
193.30 17 Nathaniel Dell WR HOU 7
193.96 17 Pittsburgh Steelers DEF PIT 6
194.35 17 Denver Broncos DEF DEN 9
194.78 17 Isaiah Hodgins WR NYG 13 Starting to rise from a shaky WR corps after a quality stretch in 2022
194.84 17 Cleveland Browns DEF CLE 5
194.90 17 Younghoe Koo K ATL 11
195.01 17 Rashid Shaheed WR NO 11
195.75 17 Zamir White RB LV 13 Handcuff for Josh Jacobs and is on the upswing thanks to the star back’s holdout
196.08 17 Jimmy Garoppolo QB LV 13
197.12 17 Cincinnati Bengals DEF CIN 7
197.33 17 Michael Gallup WR DAL 7 Still seeing his stock dip after the acquisition of Brandin Cooks; merely a flier at this point
197.86 17 Desmond Ridder QB ATL 11 Sleeper potential at a bare-bones price tag
198.02 17 Jake Elliott K PHI 10
198.18 17 Matt Breida RB NYG 13 Facing competition after Eric Gray was drafted and James Robinson joined off the street
198.35 17 Jake Moody K SF 9
198.70 17 Brett Maher K DEN 9
199.00 17 Seattle Seahawks DEF SEA 5
199.00 17 Mike Gesicki TE NE 11
199.10 17 DeVante Parker WR NE 11
199.23 17 Greg Zuerlein K NYJ 7
199.84 17 Marvin Mims WR DEN 9
200.14 17 D.J. Chark WR CAR 7
200.27 17 Van Jefferson WR LAR 10 Tremendous upside this late after an injury-impacted 2022 dulled his ’21 shine
200.36 17 Ty Chandler RB MIN 13
200.47 17 Riley Patterson K DET 9
200.50 17 Israel Abanikanda RB NYJ 7 Dark horse for touches if Dalvin Cook doesn’t sign
200.72 17 Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR KC 10
200.77 17 Jarvis Landry WR FA 11
201.00 17 Washington Commanders DEF WAS 14
202.15 17 Mecole Hardman WR NYJ 7
202.30 17 Allen Robinson WR PIT 6 Battling Calvin Austin for the slot role; looked great in OTAs and is worth monitoring
202.53 17 Hunter Renfrow WR LV 13
203.06 17 Terrace Marshall Jr. WR CAR 7 Looking at a fresh start with a clear mind following a poor start to his career
203.33 17 Luke Musgrave TE GB 6
203.65 17 Deuce Vaughn RB DAL 7
203.70 17 Robert Woods WR HOU 7
203.82 17 Hayden Hurst TE CAR 7

Examining recent fantasy football ADP data

Which players stood out the most in a look at recent ADP results?

Every fantasy football draft season creates what is known as “average draft position” data (ADP), which gamers can utilize to help find trends and get a feel for current valuation tendencies.

It’s a fair way for novice players to relate positional value and also contrast how other drafters perceive worth vs. other positions. That said, it’s easy to get caught up in the numbers and fixate too much on them.

Don’t become enamored with the raw data, especially if you’re unable to validate the source material. For example, mock drafters may not be as likely to put forth earnest effort and/or could be willing to take wild risks in relation to making picks when that actually count for something.

[lawrence-related id=465957]

Utilizing ADP data as guidelines is fine, but getting wrapped up in strictly adhering to them will get you in trouble. It’s always a positive to know whereabouts players tend to get selected within a few rounds’ margin or to develop a feel for positional runs — such as how many of the safe QB1s or No. 1 tight ends go in the first eight rounds, on average. ADP never should be treated as the be all, end all.

With that out of the way, here’s commentary from the most recent ADP chart from FantasyFootballCalculator.com. The data used comes from 12-team, PPR drafts between July 16 to July 26, covering 10,360 mocks.

Ovr Pos rk Pick Name Pos Team Bye Comments
1 1 1.01 Jonathan Taylor RB IND 14
2 2 1.03 Christian McCaffrey RB CAR 13 Too rich for my blood … In PPR, I’d take Kupp as the safest non-Taylor selection.
3 3 1.04 Derrick Henry RB TEN 6
4 1 1.04 Cooper Kupp WR LAR 7
5 4 1.04 Austin Ekeler RB LAC 8
6 2 1.05 Justin Jefferson WR MIN 7
7 5 1.07 Najee Harris RB PIT 9
8 6 1.08 Dalvin Cook RB MIN 7
9 3 1.09 Ja’Marr Chase WR CIN 10
10 4 1.10 Davante Adams WR LV 6
11 7 1.11 D’Andre Swift RB DET 6
12 8 1.12 Joe Mixon RB CIN 10
13 5 2.01 Stefon Diggs WR BUF 7
14 9 2.02 Nick Chubb RB CLE 9
15 1 2.03 Travis Kelce TE KC 8
16 10 2.04 Aaron Jones RB GB 14
17 6 2.04 CeeDee Lamb WR DAL 9 Undervalued? Lamb legitimately could finish in the top 8-10 overall.
18 11 2.06 Alvin Kamara RB NO 14 Could be a steal if the league doesn’t come down too hard on him via suspension
19 7 2.06 Deebo Samuel WR SF 9 New QB, contract dispute, unlikely to run as much … overvalued?
20 12 2.07 Javonte Williams RB DEN 9
21 13 2.08 Saquon Barkley RB NYG 9
22 1 2.09 Josh Allen QB BUF 7 Don’t draft any QB this early in conventional scoring systems/league structures.
23 8 2.10 Tyreek Hill WR MIA 11
24 9 2.10 Mike Evans WR TB 11 Among the safest WR1 targets in the game today and a value as WR9
25 2 2.12 Mark Andrews TE BAL 10
26 14 3.01 Leonard Fournette RB TB 11
27 15 3.02 Ezekiel Elliott RB DAL 9 RB15 in PPR is an interesting proposition after finishing RB7 in a “down” year.
28 10 3.03 Keenan Allen WR LAC 8
29 16 3.04 David Montgomery RB CHI 14 Could be slightly overvalued in the new system. At risk of losing serious volume.
30 11 3.05 A.J. Brown WR PHI 7 This is about as early as I’m comfortable investing in him.
31 12 3.06 Tee Higgins WR CIN 10
32 2 3.06 Justin Herbert QB LAC 8
33 17 3.08 J.K. Dobbins RB BAL 10 Pay close attention to his status during the next few weeks before investing.
34 18 3.09 James Conner RB ARI 13 TD-dependent but lacks much competition
35 13 3.09 Michael Pittman Jr. WR IND 14 Could break out as a top-8 WR
36 3 3.10 Patrick Mahomes QB KC 8
37 19 3.11 Antonio Gibson RB WAS 14
38 3 4.01 George Kittle TE SF 9
39 4 4.01 Kyle Pitts TE ATL 14
40 14 4.02 D.K. Metcalf WR SEA 11
41 20 4.03 Cam Akers RB LAR 7 Strong value buy
42 15 4.04 Diontae Johnson WR PIT 9 Overvalued? Dependent on volume and has shaky QB situation
43 21 4.05 Elijah Mitchell RB SF 9 Too risky for this placement. Committee approach, injury concerns, running QB. No thanks.
44 16 4.06 Terry McLaurin WR WAS 14
45 22 4.06 Josh Jacobs RB LV 6 Extreme volatility; TD-reliant, injury-prone. RBBC history from new regime is a concern
46 23 4.08 Travis Etienne RB JAX 11
47 17 4.09 Jaylen Waddle WR MIA 11
48 5 4.10 Darren Waller TE LV 6
49 18 4.11 D.J. Moore WR CAR 13
50 4 4.12 Joe Burrow QB CIN 10
51 19 4.12 DeAndre Hopkins WR ARI 13 Going earlier in casual leagues due to name recognition. Becomes a value after Round 6.
52 5 5.01 Lamar Jackson QB BAL 10 Will need to maximize his rushing skills and aerial efficiency with one of the weakest WR corps
53 24 5.04 Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB KC 8
54 25 5.04 Damien Harris RB NE 10 A value or another TD-dependent committee back? Hard to say with no true OC
55 20 5.05 Michael Thomas WR NO 14 Should be able to live up to this placement with 15-plus healthy appearances
56 21 5.05 Chris Godwin WR TB 11 Overvalued while working back from ACL tear suffered in Week 15
57 26 5.07 A.J. Dillon RB GB 14
58 22 5.07 Brandin Cooks WR HOU 6 Sound value with ascending quarterback and limited weapons to steal targets
59 23 5.08 Mike Williams WR LAC 8 Probably maxed out his ceiling last year
60 27 5.09 Breece Hall RB NYJ 10 Overvalued in a committee-based system, despite being a superior talent to Michael Carter
61 28 5.10 Miles Sanders RB PHI 7 Safe bet for a solid rebound, especially if passing game picks up as expected
62 6 5.11 Kyler Murray QB ARI 13
63 24 5.11 Adam Thielen WR MIN 7
64 6 5.12 T.J. Hockenson TE DET 6 Make-or-break season; needs to stay healthy and improve his efficiency to meet this valuation
65 25 6.04 Hunter Renfrow WR LV 6 Just how many passes can one expect with Davante Adams and Darren Waller atop the pecking order?
66 26 6.04 Amari Cooper WR CLE 9
67 7 6.04 Jalen Hurts QB PHI 7
68 27 6.06 Allen Robinson WR LAR 7 No OBJ and unproven receiving depth should lead to a rebound as a WR2.
69 29 6.07 Kareem Hunt RB CLE 9
70 30 6.08 Rashaad Penny RB SEA 11 Chris Carson’s retirement firmly entrenches Penny as the RB1a … until he gets hurt yet again.
71 31 6.08 Tony Pollard RB DAL 9 Will he have as large of a role again if Zeke stays healthy? Probably can meet this placement via receptions.
72 28 6.09 Jerry Jeudy WR DEN 9 Another make-or-break candidate with no excuse if he doesn’t step up
73 29 6.09 Darnell Mooney WR CHI 14 Ready for another leap? Seems improbable, but he’s a strong No. 2 on a team without a true WR1.
74 7 6.12 Dalton Schultz TE DAL 9 Strong value in PPR and likely to finish as Dallas’ No. 2 option
75 8 6.12 Aaron Rodgers QB GB 14 Far too early to draft him, but this entire ADP chart is full of QBs going too soon.
76 30 7.01 Marquise Brown WR ARI 13 Is it far-fetched to think he actually could remain the top target when DeAndre Hopkins returns?
77 31 7.02 Courtland Sutton WR DEN 9 Tremendous value with Russell Wilson steering the ship. Completely healthy after 2020 ACL tear.
78 9 7.03 Matthew Stafford QB LAR 7
79 32 7.03 Devin Singletary RB BUF 7
80 33 7.06 James Robinson RB JAX 11 Keep tabs on his workload over the next month before trusting he’ll return to form.
81 32 7.06 DeVonta Smith WR PHI 7
82 8 7.07 Dallas Goedert TE PHI 7 Will NFL’s top rushing offense dramatically pivot to a pass-heavy script and sustain three strong targets?
83 33 7.09 Gabriel Davis WR BUF 7 Poised for a true breakout, but his role and skill set suggest inconsistency from week to week.
84 10 7.10 Dak Prescott QB DAL 9
85 9 7.11 Dawson Knox TE BUF 7 Overvalued … too dependent on touchdowns and shouldn’t see a significant upgrade in targets
86 11 7.12 Russell Wilson QB DEN 9 Rock-solid value going even this early … tends to go two rounds later in advanced leagues
87 34 7.12 Elijah Moore WR NYJ 10 Intriguing risk-reward decision in an offense that has seen serious investment in personnel upgrades
88 34 8.01 Chase Edmonds RB MIA 11 Interesting value here in PPR but may struggle to hold up to a large workload as well as fend off competition
89 35 8.01 Melvin Gordon RB DEN 9
90 35 8.04 Amon-Ra St. Brown WR DET 6 Investment in WRs, plus healthy D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson will cut into his targets
91 36 8.06 Kenneth Walker III RB SEA 11 Carson’s retirement solidifies Walker as no worse than an RB4 with plenty of upside.
92 36 8.06 Robert Woods WR TEN 6 Age-30 season coming off a torn ACL and entering a run-first system … underwhelming.
93 37 8.06 Cordarrelle Patterson WR ATL 14 Should come back to Earth after breaking out at 30 years old in a new position
94 12 8.06 Tom Brady QB TB 11 Should move up a few spots with Julio Jones’ signing, but it’s not a sure thing to move the needle.
95 38 8.08 Rashod Bateman WR BAL 10 Showed enough in limited action as a rookie to believe this placement is criminally low
96 37 8.09 Alexander Mattison RB MIN 7 Among the best backups to target/handcuffs to secure
97 38 8.09 Michael Carter RB NYJ 10 Starting to gain steam in relation to Breece Hall’s ADP
98 39 8.10 JuJu Smith-Schuster WR KC 8 Comes down to staying healthy after a season-ending shoulder injury in 2021, his 2nd lost season in 3 years
99 39 8.11 Rhamondre Stevenson RB NE 10
100 40 9.03 James Cook RB BUF 7 Don’t get too excited — no real threat to take Devin Singletary’s job and may be a gimmick-play receiving back
101 40 9.04 Brandon Aiyuk WR SF 9
102 41 9.05 Tyler Lockett WR SEA 11 Profit potential is tough to ignore at this ADP, regardless of QB situation
103 13 9.05 Derek Carr QB LV 6
104 41 9.06 Ronald Jones II RB KC 8 Will be an interesting RB3/flex option if CEH struggles once again
105 42 9.06 Darrell Henderson RB LAR 7
106 10 9.08 Pat Freiermuth TE PIT 9 Might be the safest receiving outlet in the Steel City not named Najee
107 11 9.09 Zach Ertz TE ARI 13
108 42 9.09 Chase Claypool WR PIT 9
109 14 9.10 Trey Lance QB SF 9 Has the weapons and rushing chops to shine as a QB1, but the OL is a question mark
110 43 9.11 Russell Gage WR TB 11 Shouldn’t be too affected by Julio signing — different roles
111 43 9.11 Nyheim Hines RB IND 14
112 44 10.01 Michael Gallup WR DAL 9 Grossly overvalued due to injury timeline
113 45 10.03 Christian Kirk WR JAX 11
114 44 10.04 J.D. McKissic RB WAS 14
115 45 10.04 Raheem Mostert RB MIA 11 Has the advantage of knowing the system but has been failed by his own body
116 1 10.05 Buffalo Defense DEF BUF 7 Don’t draft defenses in Round 10. Ever.
117 12 10.05 Mike Gesicki TE MIA 11
118 46 10.07 Kadarius Toney WR NYG 9 Offers the most upside of all receivers on the roster and is a value at this stage
## 46 10.07 Chris Carson RB SEA 11 Retired and will fall out of the ADP charts soon
120 47 10.08 Dameon Pierce RB HOU 6 Quality target this late — hardly used at Florida but is more versatile than Marlon Mack
121 48 10.08 Marlon Mack RB HOU 6 Training camp & preseason will determine whether how much see Pierce before Mack inevitably gets injured.
122 47 10.08 Allen Lazard WR GB 14 Among the best breakout candidates coming at a WR4 price tag
123 15 10.09 Kirk Cousins QB MIN 7 Unsexy pick but strong backup who has produced as a low-end QB1 more often than not
124 48 10.11 Drake London WR ATL 14 Hard to get excited about anyone catching passes from Marcus Mariota
125 49 11.02 Mark Ingram RB NO 14
126 50 11.03 Chuba Hubbard RB CAR 13 Will he fend off D’Onta Foreman to back up CMC?
127 2 11.04 LA Rams Defense DEF LAR 7
128 51 11.05 Isaiah Spiller RB LAC 8 Should be on everyone’s short list when looking for a late-round flier; mandatory handcuff to Austin Ekeler
129 49 11.05 Jarvis Landry WR NO 14 Volume needed, but will it be there?
130 3 11.07 Tampa Bay Defense DEF TB 11
131 50 11.08 Treylon Burks WR TEN 6 Needs a close watch over the next month after missing nearly all of OTAs.
132 52 11.09 Tyler Allgeier RB ATL 14 Stands a strong chance to break through as an RB3 or flex in non-PPR; fourth back in PPR
133 51 11.09 Calvin Ridley WR ATL 14 Gamers are gambling on his suspension being reduced
134 16 11.10 Deshaun Watson QB CLE 9 Suspension looming, which dictates his entire value
135 52 11.10 Chris Olave WR NO 14 Probably won’t matter if Michael Thomas, Landry and Kamara are healthy
136 53 11.11 DeVante Parker WR NE 10 Strong value option this late
137 53 12.01 Jamaal Williams RB DET 6
138 17 12.01 Tua Tagovailoa QB MIA 11 Has all of the weapons and the system in place to break out
139 13 12.02 Hunter Henry TE NE 10
140 54 12.02 Kenneth Gainwell RB PHI 7
141 18 12.03 Justin Fields QB CHI 14
142 54 12.03 Christian Watson WR GB 14 Can he develop fast enough and remain consistent enough to earn Aaron Rodgers’ trust?
143 55 12.04 Tyler Boyd WR CIN 10
144 4 12.05 Indianapolis Defense DEF IND 14 Coordinator change could lead to regression in big plays
145 55 12.05 Darrel Williams RB ARI 13 Handcuff to James Conner
146 56 12.06 Rachaad White RB TB 11
147 1 12.06 Justin Tucker PK BAL 10 Don’t draft kickers in Round 12. Ever.
148 14 12.07 Cole Kmet TE CHI 14 Breakout candidate written all over him
149 56 12.08 Skyy Moore WR KC 8 Will need a strong camp and/or a few breaks to shine, but the talent is obvious
150 15 12.09 Logan Thomas TE WAS 14 Avoid him like your fantasy life depends on it
151 19 12.09 Davis Mills QB HOU 6
152 57 12.09 Sony Michel RB MIA 11 Purely a flier in a crowded backfield
153 2 12.10 Tyler Bass PK BUF 7
154 5 12.11 San Francisco Defense DEF SF 9
155 20 12.11 Matt Ryan QB IND 14
156 3 12.12 Daniel Carlson PK LV 6
157 57 13.01 Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR KC 8 Could emerge as one of the best free-agent additions of a crowded WR class
158 58 13.01 Gus Edwards RB BAL 10
159 4 13.02 Harrison Butker PK KC 8
160 6 13.03 New Orleans Defense DEF NO 14
161 5 13.04 Ryan Succop PK TB 11
162 59 13.06 Matt Breida RB NYG 9
163 16 13.06 Robert Tonyan Jr. TE GB 14 Has a chance for late-season success if the knee gets right
164 6 13.07 Rodrigo Blankenship PK IND 14 Rebound ahead after a lost year
165 7 13.07 Pittsburgh Defense DEF PIT 9
166 7 13.07 Younghoe Koo PK ATL 14
167 17 13.07 Austin Hooper TE TEN 6 Magnificent value for a flier TE who has proven to be a top-10 guy more than once
168 8 13.09 LA Chargers Defense DEF LAC 8 Legit upgrades in the offseason should see defensive-minded head coach get more creative
169 60 13.09 Trey Sermon RB SF 9
170 9 13.09 Minnesota Defense DEF MIN 7
171 18 13.09 Kyle Rudolph TE TB 11 Was brought in for his blocking skills and shouldn’t be on your radar
172 8 13.10 Nick Folk PK NE 10
173 58 13.10 Mecole Hardman WR KC 8 Someone has to emerge from this hodgepodge WR room, so why can’t it be the incumbent?
174 9 13.10 Matt Gay PK LAR 7
175 10 13.10 Detroit Defense DEF DET 6
176 21 13.10 Jared Goff QB DET 6
177 19 13.11 Irv Smith Jr. TE MIN 7 Nifty TE2 flier with TE1 potential some weeks
178 11 13.11 Washington Defense DEF WAS 14
179 20 13.11 Mo Alie-Cox TE IND 14
180 22 13.12 Trevor Lawrence QB JAX 11 It’s statistically impossible to be as bad as he was last year once more
181 61 13.12 Tyrion Davis-Price RB SF 9
182 21 13.12 Noah Fant TE SEA 11 Tremendous value given the shaky QB situation and attention paid to top WRs
183 59 14.01 A.J. Green WR ARI 13
184 12 14.01 Dallas Defense DEF DAL 9
185 60 14.01 D.J. Chark WR DET 6
186 61 14.01 Jakobi Meyers WR NE 10 Safe, quality roster depth in PPR
187 10 14.02 Greg Joseph PK MIN 7
188 23 14.03 Jameis Winston QB NO 14 If healthy, could surprise and challenge low-end QB1 status
189 62 14.03 Kenyan Drake RB LV 6 Will find a role once the ankle is 100 percent
190 11 14.03 Graham Gano PK CAR 13
191 63 14.03 D’Onta Foreman RB CAR 13 Breathed some life back into his career last season and could win RB2 chores behind fragile starter
192 13 14.03 New England Defense DEF NE 10
193 62 14.03 Tim Patrick WR DEN 9
194 24 14.04 Mac Jones QB NE 10
195 64 14.04 Jerick McKinnon RB KC 8
196 63 14.04 Alec Pierce WR IND 14 Intriguing deep threat, but will this offense pass enough to make him worthy of a roster spot?
197 22 14.04 Albert Okwuegbunam TE DEN 9
198 23 14.04 Gerald Everett TE LAC 8
199 64 14.05 Rondale Moore WR ARI 13 Has the electricity to warm a bench spot for a few weeks to find out if he’s worth the risk
200 24 14.05 Tyler Higbee TE LAR 7
201 65 14.05 Garrett Wilson WR NYJ 10
202 66 14.05 Kenny Golladay WR NYG 9 It’s tough to reconcile this placement … Draft him as a WR5 and you won’t regret it.
203 25 14.05 Evan Engram TE JAX 11 Ready to return to his early glory days
204 65 14.05 Jeffery Wilson RB SF 9
205 67 14.06 Van Jefferson WR LAR 7
206 26 14.06 David Njoku TE CLE 9 Quality value with all that is this receiving corps and QB situation
207 27 14.07 Hayden Hurst TE CIN 10
208 14 14.07 Baltimore Defense DEF BAL 10
209 15 14.07 Green Bay Defense DEF GB 14
210 16 14.08 Arizona Defense DEF ARI 13
211 28 14.08 Cameron Brate TE TB 11 Most viable option among TB’s TEs
212 17 14.08 Philadelphia Defense DEF PHI 7 Ready to bounce back after influx of talent
213 12 14.08 Brandon McManus PK DEN 9
214 25 14.08 Mitch Trubisky QB PIT 9 Sneaky flier in best-ball
215 18 14.09 Kansas City Defense DEF KC 8
216 66 14.09 Myles Gaskin RB MIA 11
217 26 14.09 Zach Wilson QB NYJ 10 Do we see the true gunslinger in him this year?
218 68 14.09 Jameson Williams WR DET 6 Probably not worthy of a fantasy roster spot, but stranger things have happened
219 67 14.09 Samaje Perine RB CIN 10
220 68 14.09 Zamir White RB LV 6
221 69 14.09 Brian Robinson Jr. RB WAS 14 Handcuff to Antonio Gibson
222 13 14.09 Jake Elliott PK PHI 7
223 14 14.09 Jason Sanders PK MIA 11
224 15 14.10 Lirim Hajrullahu PK DAL 9
225 69 14.10 Corey Davis WR NYJ 10
226 70 14.11 Nico Collins WR HOU 6 A slightly better flier with John Metchie out
227 71 14.12 Jamison Crowder WR BUF 7 Should assume Cole Beasley’s spot as a safety blanket — volume tied to how much Gabe Davis breaks out
228 72 14.12 Jahan Dotson WR WAS 14
229 73 15.01 George Pickens WR PIT 9
230 70 15.01 Boston Scott RB PHI 7
231 74 15.01 Jalen Tolbert WR DAL 9 Awesome profit potential in what’s a ragtag group behind Lamb
232 27 15.01 Baker Mayfield QB CAR 13 Has the weapons if he can cut down on the turnovers
233 19 15.02 Miami Defense DEF MIA 11
234 16 15.02 Cade York PK CLE 9
235 17 15.02 Wil Lutz PK NO 14
236 28 15.02 Ryan Tannehill QB TEN 6
237 20 15.02 Cleveland Defense DEF CLE 9
238 71 15.02 James White RB NE 10
239 21 15.02 Denver Defense DEF DEN 9
240 18 15.03 Chris Boswell PK PIT 9
241 19 15.03 Matt Prater PK ARI 13
242 75 15.04 Marvin Jones WR JAX 11 Another unsexy selection who could return a decent profit
243 72 15.05 D’Ernest Johnson RB CLE 9
244 76 15.05 Sammy Watkins WR GB 14
245 73 15.05 Rex Burkhead RB HOU 6
246 22 15.06 Carolina Defense DEF CAR 13
247 23 15.07 Tennessee Defense DEF TEN 6
248 74 15.08 Mike Davis RB BAL 10
249 75 15.08 Damien Williams RB ATL 14
250 20 15.09 Robbie Gould PK SF 9
251 21 15.10 Dustin Hopkins PK LAC 8
252 77 15.10 Robby Anderson WR CAR 13 Criminally low, especially if Mayfield secures starting job
253 22 15.12 Mason Crosby PK GB 14
254 76 16.01 Giovani Bernard RB TB 11
255 23 16.04 Cameron Dicker PK LAR 7

Fantasy football draft: 3 first-round picks to avoid

Analyzing 2021 fantasy football ADPs and flagging three potential first-round picks to avoid on draft day.

It is said that you can’t necessarily win your fantasy football league title on the basis of your first-round draft pick, but you can certainly set yourself up for a disappointing season with the wrong opening-round selection.
With that in mind, we’re singling out players for 12-team leagues and explaining why they’re three first-round picks to avoid in fantasy football.

Three first-round picks to bypass

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com)

Green Bay Packers WR Davante Adams

Current ADP: 6 (average pick of 8.83)

2020 statistics (14 games): 149 targets, 115 receptions, 1,374 yards, 18 touchdowns

2020 fantasy points: 243.4 standard scoring (first among wide receivers), 358.4 point-per-reception scoring (first)

Why to shy away: There’s a bit of an asterisk here: We do like Adams as a first-round pick, just not at No. 6 overall with elite players at positions of much more scarcity (Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce and RBs Saquon Barkley (New York Giants) and Aaron Jones (Green Bay Packers)) still on the board.

Adams had a career/historical year in 2020 in terms of receptions, TDs and fantasy points as he became the fifth player in NFL history with at least 18 scoring grabs in a season; however, the issue with historical seasons is they’re typically by their very definition a once-in-career occurrence.

Aside from Sterling Sharpe, whose career ended due to a neck injury suffered late in his 18-TD-catch season of 1994, the three other wideouts (Randy Moss in 2007, Jerry Rice in 1987 and Mark Clayton in 1984) who’ve had at least 18 scoring receptions in a season all saw their TD and standard fantasy point totals decrease markedly the next season (by at least 12 TDs and 51 fantasy points).

None of those three missed a game to injury in those ensuing seasons, and it’s highly likely Adams will follow suit in 2021, making him more of a late-first/early-second round value.

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Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb

Current ADP: 11 (12.42 average pick)

2020 statistics (12 games): 190 carries, 1,067 yards, 16 receptions, 150 yards, 12 total TDs

2020 fantasy points: 191.7 standard (9th), 207.7 PPR (11th)

Why to shy away: Running backs are the most valuable first-round commodities, but not backs in near-equal timeshares. Chubb’s Browns teammate and former NFL rushing leader Kareem Hunt finished just one spot behind Chubb among the 2020 standard-scoring fantasy points leaders and one spot ahead in the PPR ranks.

In other words, this is the point in the first round to jump off the RB train and go with the elite wide receiver or tight end.

Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor

Current ADP: 12 (13.17 average pick)

2020 statistics (15 games): 232 rushes, 1,169 yards, 36 receptions, 299 yards, 12 total TDs

2020 fantasy points: 216.8 standard (4th), 252.8 PPR (6th)

Why to shy away: Taylor is entering his second season, and it’s not even accurate to call him a one-year wonder as roughly 55% of his fantasy production came in his final five games of 2020, largely playing against sub-par defenses.

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Fantasy football ADP positional evaluations

A snapshot of fantasy football ADP reactions.

Fantasy football average draft position (ADP) is a handy tool to get a feel for where certain players are going relative to their positional peers. It’s not particularly useful when compiled regardless of position, because of too many variables to accurately judge the influences from each drafter.

Cautionary advice: ADP data is merely a guideline and should not be utilized as the be-all, end-all factor in knowing when to draft players. A great example is found in quarterback valuation. Inexperienced gamers tend to greatly overvalue the significance of the position in relation to other positions, largely because of the nature of quarterback being the face of the NFL, which leads to inflated recognition.

In this analysis, viewers get a snapshot view of my impressions from the latest ADP data.

Note: All ADP figures below are from FantasyFootballCalculator.com and utilize PPR scoring.

Quarterbacks

Rk
Pick
Name
Pos
Team
Bye
ADP reaction
Notes
1
2.09
Pat Mahomes
QB
KC
12
2
4.01
Josh Allen
QB
BUF
7
3
4.10
Kyler Murray
QB
ARI
12
4
5.03
Dak Prescott
QB
DAL
7
5
5.05
Lamar Jackson
QB
BAL
8
6
6.01
Justin Herbert
QB
LAC
7
Slightly high
New system could create early struggles
7
6.06
Russell Wilson
QB
SEA
9
8
6.10
Aaron Rodgers
QB
GB
13
Volatile
Current dispute with team has future in doubt
9
7.05
Tom Brady
QB
TB
9
10
8.03
Jalen Hurts
QB
PHI
14
Optimistic
New offensive system, inexperienced WRs
11
8.04
Matthew Stafford
QB
LAR
11
12
8.12
Joe Burrow
QB
CIN
10
Value buy
Knee is healthy, weapons & OL upgraded
13
9.08
Trevor Lawrence
QB
JAX
7
14
9.09
Ryan Tannehill
QB
TEN
13
Rising
Addition of Julio Jones has QB’s stock rising
15
9.10
Matt Ryan
QB
ATL
6
Falling
Loss of Julio Jones devaluing stock
16
10.08
Deshaun Watson
QB
HOU
10
Volatile
Off-field issues, plus demand for trade has him in limbo
17
12.03
Kirk Cousins
QB
MIN
7
18
12.03
Baker Mayfield
QB
CLE
13
19
12.09
Carson Wentz
QB
IND
14
Volatile
Has talent but needs weapons to step up
20
13.09
Taysom Hill
QB
NO
6
Volatile
Battling for QB1 job
21
13.10
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
MIA
14
Value buy
Drastic upgrade of targets, full offseason to master playbook
22
14.01
Cam Newton
QB
NE
14
Volatile
Major durability concerns, first-round rookie looming
23
14.04
Jameis Winston
QB
NO
6
Volatile
Battling for QB1 job; stock will skyrocket if named starter
24
14.04
Trey Lance
QB
SF
6
Volatile
Vying for starting job
25
14.05
Ryan Fitzpatrick
QB
WAS
9
Value buy
Ample weaponry, little competition for QB1 job
26
14.05
Sam Darnold
QB
CAR
13
27
14.06
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
PIT
7
Value buy
Ridiculously low in relation to weapons available
28
14.07
Justin Fields
QB
CHI
10
29
14.07
Daniel Jones
QB
NYG
10
Value buy
Risky as anyone, but Year 2 in offense, more weapons
30
14.08
Derek Carr
QB
LV
8
Undervalued
Safe QB2 who can be had in the last round of drafts

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Running backs

Rk
Pick
Name
Pos
Team
Bye
ADP reaction
Notes
1
1.01
Christian McCaffrey
RB
CAR
13
2
1.03
Dalvin Cook
RB
MIN
7
3
1.04
Alvin Kamara
RB
NO
6
4
1.04
Derrick Henry
RB
TEN
13
Mild risk
Elevated injury concerns, fewer touches likely
5
1.04
Saquon Barkley
RB
NYG
10
Mild risk
Possibly light workload early in season after 2020 ACL tear
6
1.06
Ezekiel Elliott
RB
DAL
7
7
1.07
Nick Chubb
RB
CLE
13
8
1.08
Jonathan Taylor
RB
IND
14
Value
Quality value with top-3 potential behind strong OL
9
1.09
Austin Ekeler
RB
LAC
7
Optimistic
Attainable placement but requires a full slate & 2019 aerial volume
10
1.12
Aaron Jones
RB
GB
13
11
2.02
Cam Akers
RB
LAR
11
12
2.05
Antonio Gibson
RB
WAS
9
13
2.07
Joe Mixon
RB
CIN
10
Risk-reward
Interesting risk-reward ratio with expected increase in touches, but an injury risk
14
2.09
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
RB
KC
12
15
3.02
Najee Harris
RB
PIT
7
16
3.03
J.K. Dobbins
RB
BAL
8
Value
Factors for serious breakout as a possible top-8 back
17
3.07
D’Andre Swift
RB
DET
9
18
3.08
Miles Sanders
RB
PHI
14
Risk
Injury history, new offense, inexperience QB & WRs; immense individual talent
19
3.09
Josh Jacobs
RB
LV
8
Slightly overvalued
Injury risk, lower volume after Kenyan Drake addition; too dependent on TDs
20
3.10
Chris Carson
RB
SEA
9
21
3.12
David Montgomery
RB
CHI
10
22
4.06
James Robinson
RB
JAX
7
Overvalued
Rookie standout thrived on volume that will be lost to rookie Travis Etienne
23
4.07
Kareem Hunt
RB
CLE
13
24
4.09
Myles Gaskin
RB
MIA
14
25
4.11
Raheem Mostert
RB
SF
6
Overvalued
Injury-prone with rookie Trey Sermon lurking and capable of overtaking
26
5.07
Mike Davis
RB
ATL
6
Value
Could catch 75 passes in this Julio Jones-less offense
27
5.07
Melvin Gordon
RB
DEN
11
28
6.02
Chase Edmonds
RB
ARI
12
29
6.03
Travis Etienne
RB
JAX
7
30
6.11
Ronald Jones II
RB
TB
9
Overvalued
Too many mouths to feed in crowded backfield & offense
31
7.01
Leonard Fournette
RB
TB
9
Overvalued
Will lose much value as a receiver after Gio Bernard’s addition
32
7.04
Javonte Williams
RB
DEN
11
33
7.04
Damien Harris
RB
NE
14
34
7.06
David Johnson
RB
HOU
10
Overvalued
Crowded backfield, serious issues at QB and WR
35
7.07
Kene Nwangwu
RB
MIN
7
Overvalued
Flying up boards on speculation; Dalvin Cook is the workhorse, Alexander Mattison in his way
36
7.10
James Conner
RB
ARI
12
Risk-reward
Injury concerns up the wazoo; Chase Edmonds ready to ascend; TD-dependent
37
8.04
Kenyan Drake
RB
LV
8
38
8.08
J.D. McKissic
RB
WAS
9
Value buy
PPR powerhouse coming at a discount
39
8.11
A.J. Dillon
RB
GB
13
40
9.02
Devin Singletary
RB
BUF
7
41
9.05
Nyheim Hines
RB
IND
14
Value
Fair price for a proven PPR asset
42
9.05
Zack Moss
RB
BUF
7
43
9.07
Gus Edwards
RB
BAL
8
44
9.09
Jeffery Wilson
RB
SF
6
Falling
Could miss time into regular season after offseason surgery
45
10.02
Trey Sermon
RB
SF
6
Undervalued
Should continue to rise but has legitimate RB1 talent and safe RB2 potential
46
10.03
Latavius Murray
RB
NO
6
47
10.04
Tony Pollard
RB
DAL
7
48
10.06
Jamaal Williams
RB
DET
9
Value
An injury away from seeing RB1 volume behind a strong line
49
10.11
Phillip Lindsay
RB
HOU
10
50
11.02
Alexander Mattison
RB
MIN
7
51
11.04
Tarik Cohen
RB
CHI
10
52
11.08
Darrell Henderson
RB
LAR
11
53
12.01
Rashaad Penny
RB
SEA
9
54
12.05
Michael Carter
RB
NYJ
6
Value
Will compete for starting job and is more versatile than many recognize
55
12.07
Marlon Mack
RB
IND
14
56
12.08
James White
RB
NE
14
57
13.03
Tevin Coleman
RB
NYJ
6
58
13.04
Kenneth Gainwell
RB
PHI
14
59
13.10
Malcolm Brown
RB
MIA
14
60
13.11
Giovani Bernard
RB
TB
9
61
14.01
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB
NE
14
62
14.02
Justin Jackson
RB
LAC
7
63
14.04
Damien Williams
RB
CHI
10
Value
Low-risk, speculative investment; Tarik Cohen returning from ACL
64
14.04
Darrel Williams
RB
KC
12
65
14.04
Chuba Hubbard
RB
CAR
13
Value buy
One McCaffrey injury away from elite production
66
14.05
Wayne Gallman
RB
SF
6
67
14.06
Salvon Ahmed
RB
MIA
14
68
14.06
Samaje Perine
RB
CIN
10
69
14.08
Mark Ingram
RB
HOU
10
70
14.09
Jerick McKinnon
RB
KC
12
71
14.09
Devontae Booker
RB
NYG
10
72
14.10
Benny Snell Jr.
RB
PIT
7
73
14.10
Kerryon Johnson
RB
PHI
14
74
14.11
Sony Michel
RB
NE
14
75
14.12
Anthony McFarland Jr.
RB
PIT
7
76
15.01
Boston Scott
RB
PHI
14
Value buy
Late-round flier with weekly flex potential
77
15.02
Matt Breida
RB
BUF
7
78
15.05
Donta Foreman
RB
TEN
13

Wide receivers

Rk
Pick
Name
Pos
Team
Bye
ADP reaction
Notes
1
1.10
Tyreek Hill
WR
KC
12
2
2.01
Davante Adams
WR
GB
13
Volatile
Overvalued placement if Aaron Rodgers gets his way and leaves
3
2.02
Stefon Diggs
WR
BUF
7
4
2.04
DeAndre Hopkins
WR
ARI
12
5
2.06
Calvin Ridley
WR
ATL
6
6
2.08
D.K. Metcalf
WR
SEA
9
7
2.10
A.J. Brown
WR
TEN
13
8
3.01
Keenan Allen
WR
LAC
7
9
3.02
Justin Jefferson
WR
MIN
7
10
3.04
Michael Thomas
WR
NO
6
Value buy
Weird to say he’s a value at WR10, but if Jameis Winston starts, Thomas returns to elite status
11
3.09
Allen Robinson
WR
CHI
10
Volatile
Talent is there, but does he have chemistry with Andy Dalton or rookie QB?
12
3.10
Terry McLaurin
WR
WAS
9
13
4.02
Julio Jones
WR
TEN
13
14
4.04
Mike Evans
WR
TB
9
15
4.05
Amari Cooper
WR
DAL
7
16
4.06
CeeDee Lamb
WR
DAL
7
17
4.07
Robert Woods
WR
LAR
11
18
4.11
Chris Godwin
WR
TB
9
19
5.01
Adam Thielen
WR
MIN
7
Slightly overvalued
Mild injury risk; losing ground to Justin Jefferson; too reliant on TDs in 2020
20
5.02
Cooper Kupp
WR
LAR
11
21
5.07
Kenny Golladay
WR
NYG
10
Volatile
Injury history, Daniel Jones question marks, new offense for Golladay
22
5.09
Diontae Johnson
WR
PIT
7
23
5.10
Tyler Lockett
WR
SEA
9
24
6.01
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
SF
6
25
6.04
Odell Beckham Jr
WR
CLE
13
Overvalued
Coming off ACL tear; lacks obvious chemistry with Baker Mayfield; run-heavy offense
26
6.04
D.J. Moore
WR
CAR
13
27
6.06
Ja’Marr Chase
WR
CIN
10
Slightly optimistic
Dependent upon shaking off rust after sitting out 2020; needs to learn NFL system
28
6.11
Tee Higgins
WR
CIN
10
29
7.01
D.J. Chark
WR
JAX
7
Volatile
No clue if he has chemistry with Trevor Lawrence; added receiving talent to steal looks
30
7.02
Chase Claypool
WR
PIT
7
31
7.04
DeVonta Smith
WR
PHI
14
Volatile
Talented rookie but needs to acclimate to NFL with relatively inexperienced QB
32
7.06
Courtland Sutton
WR
DEN
11
Value buy
Regardless of QB situation, Sutton is a WR1 talent & on track after ACL tear
33
7.10
JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR
PIT
7
34
8.01
Tyler Boyd
WR
CIN
10
35
8.03
Deebo Samuel
WR
SF
6
36
8.04
Will Fuller
WR
MIA
14
Volatile
Facing early-season suspension, unreal injury history, new QB & system
37
8.05
Robby Anderson
WR
CAR
13
38
8.09
Jerry Jeudy
WR
DEN
11
39
8.12
Brandin Cooks
WR
HOU
10
Volatile
Will drastically out-play ADP if Deshaun Watson is the full-season starter
40
9.03
Jarvis Landry
WR
CLE
13
Value buy
Safe PPR addition as WR3; stock depressed after fighting hip injury throughout 2020
41
9.05
Michael Pittman Jr.
WR
IND
14
Value buy
Potential for top-24 finish in PPR based on volume, but remains plenty risky
42
9.11
Antonio Brown
WR
TB
9
43
10.01
Marquise Brown
WR
BAL
8
Value buy
Will be inconsistent by nature of his style, but serious value opportunity
44
10.02
Laviska Shenault Jr.
WR
JAX
7
Value buy
Offseason standout thus far; offense will need to pass to overcome Jags’ defense
45
10.04
DeVante Parker
WR
MIA
14
Value buy
Likely WR1 with new WRs to take away some pressure; QB maturation expected
46
10.06
Curtis Samuel
WR
WAS
9
Value buy
PPR value but some risk; knows system and has a gunslinger QB
47
11.01
Cole Beasley
WR
BUF
7
48
11.01
Jaylen Waddle
WR
MIA
14
Overvalued
Profiles as erratic rookie in an offense with several viable targets; star power after 2021, though
49
11.03
Henry Ruggs III
WR
LV
8
Value buy
Having strong offseason and poised to live up to 2020 draft potential
50
11.06
Corey Davis
WR
NYJ
6
51
11.11
T.Y. Hilton
WR
IND
14
52
11.12
Michael Gallup
WR
DAL
7
53
12.04
Mike Williams
WR
LAC
7
54
12.09
Marvin Jones
WR
JAX
7
55
12.11
Jamison Crowder
WR
NYJ
6
56
13.04
Mecole Hardman
WR
KC
12
57
13.04
Darnell Mooney
WR
CHI
10
Value buy
WR2 in what could be a stronger passing game; but some risk due to looming rookie QB
58
13.06
Rashod Bateman
WR
BAL
8
Rising
Standing out so far in camp and has an opportunity to seize WR1 role
59
13.08
Van Jefferson
WR
LAR
11
60
14.03
Gabriel Davis
WR
BUF
7
61
14.04
Nelson Agholor
WR
NE
14
62
14.04
Sterling Shepard
WR
NYG
10
63
14.05
Elijah Moore
WR
NYJ
6
64
14.05
Russell Gage
WR
ATL
6
Value buy
Expected to vie for WR2 role in an offense that should make him a weekly flex contender
65
14.07
Parris Campbell
WR
IND
14
66
14.08
Denzel Mims
WR
NYJ
6
67
14.08
John Brown
WR
LV
8
Value buy
Veteran of an inexperienced passing game; could surprise, especially if Henry Ruggs struggles again
68
14.09
DeSean Jackson
WR
LAR
11
69
14.09
Jalen Reagor
WR
PHI
14
70
14.11
A.J. Green
WR
ARI
12
71
14.11
Allen Lazard
WR
GB
13
72
14.12
Emmanuel Sanders
WR
BUF
7
73
15.01
Sammy Watkins
WR
BAL
8
74
15.03
Christian Kirk
WR
ARI
12
75
15.04
Darius Slayton
WR
NYG
10
76
15.04
Tre’Quan Smith
WR
NO
6
77
15.06
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
DET
9
Undervalued
Opportunity to be DET’s WR1 and could become a PPR option via volume
78
15.07
Josh Reynolds
WR
TEN
13

Tight ends

Rk
Pick
Name
Pos
Team
Bye
ADP reaction
Notes
1
1.08
Travis Kelce
TE
KC
12
2
2.11
Darren Waller
TE
LV
8
3
3.01
George Kittle
TE
SF
6
4
5.03
Mark Andrews
TE
BAL
8
5
5.04
Kyle Pitts
TE
ATL
6
Optimistic
Rookie TEs rarely excel in fantasy, but there’s a real opportunity to live up to the hype
6
6.01
T.J. Hockenson
TE
DET
9
7
7.04
Logan Thomas
TE
WAS
9
Overvalued
Career year for QB-turned-TE in 2020; Curtis Samuel will eat into volume, which is what carried Thomas
8
7.10
Noah Fant
TE
DEN
11
9
8.04
Hunter Henry
TE
NE
14
Optimistic
Should see ample targets, although injury history & QB questions create unease over ADP
10
8.07
Dallas Goedert
TE
PHI
14
Volatile
Has the potential for a top-5 showing if TE Zach Ertz is traded
11
9.07
Evan Engram
TE
NYG
10
12
9.11
Rob Gronkowski
TE
TB
9
13
12.02
Jonnu Smith
TE
NE
14
14
12.03
Robert Tonyan Jr.
TE
GB
13
Volatile
TD-dependent 2020 standout faces uncertainty with Aaron Rodgers saga
15
13.01
Mike Gesicki
TE
MIA
14
Volatile
New receivers should eat into his target share; historically, this offense has seldom used its TEs
16
13.04
Tyler Higbee
TE
LAR
11
17
13.07
Mo Alie-Cox
TE
IND
14
Optimistic
Vying for TE1 role; daylight for serious role if WR cast fails to produce
18
13.12
Adam Trautman
TE
NO
6
Volatile
Tremendous upside if Jameis Winston starts at QB
19
14.01
Irv Smith Jr.
TE
MIN
7
20
14.03
Jared Cook
TE
LAC
7
Value buy
Age working against him, yet sizeable role is available in a familiar offense
21
14.04
Hayden Hurst
TE
ATL
6
22
14.04
Gerald Everett
TE
SEA
9
Value buy
Late-round flier but will need a helping hand for consistent utility
23
14.05
Zach Ertz
TE
PHI
14
Value buy
Volatile, too, but it’s only a matter of time before his situation is resolved
24
14.07
Blake Jarwin
TE
DAL
7
25
14.09
Cole Kmet
TE
CHI
10
26
15.02
Anthony Firkser
TE
TEN
13
Value buy
There’s a role for weekly lineup consideration in TE-friendly system

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