Two-thirds of NFL experts pick against the Saints in Week 3

NFL Pickwatch: Two-thirds of NFL experts pick against the Saints in Week 3

I mean, it’s tough to blame them, right? The New Orleans Saints just turned in maybe the least inspiring performance in Sean Payton’s 15-year tenure, and only 33% of experts polled at NFL Pickwatch are choosing them to defeat the New England Patriots in Week 3.

On the other hand, the Saints did the same thing to the Green Bay Packers in Week 1 (who struggled to shift gears against the Detroit Lions on Monday night until they pulled away in the second half). Their Jekyll and Hyde act makes them tough to forecast.

A vast majority of experts picked against the Saints in Week 1, then backed the black and gold in Week 2 (to their regret). Let’s see if the Saints can prove them wrong again, but for the better this time.

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Experts give Chiefs good marks for 2021 NFL draft class

The experts like what the Chiefs did in the 2021 NFL draft, but some have a few reservations.

The 2021 NFL draft is a thing of the past and the Kansas City Chiefs came away with some great players. Their class really begins with the trade for Orlando Brown Jr., acquiring their left tackle of the future while also positioning themselves with another pick in an area of the draft that Brett Veach considered a “hot zone.” There he selected Nick Bolton and Creed Humphrey, both considered to be solid picks with the ability to contribute right away. From there, the Chiefs took everything from projects to steals on Day 3, adding Joshua Kaindoh, Noah Gray, Cornell Powell, and Trey Smith.

After letting things ruminate for a bit, the experts have spoken. The general consensus seems to be that the Chiefs had a good— borderline great draft. Here’s a look at several draft grades for the Chiefs’ 2021 draft class from varying sports outlets:

Jerry Hughes was right, ‘experts’ big on Chiefs over Bills

NFL experts picks ahead of the Buffalo Bills’ meeting with Kansas City Chiefs in AFC Championship.

The Bills often like to run with the underdog mindset. Only problem is, when you’re a 13-3 team and playing in the AFC Championship? You’re a good team.

Still, defensive end Jerry Hughes must have been on to something this week when he said all those “experts” are picking against his team… because he’s right. While it’s not a Buffalo vs. the world situation, many of those so-called experts are picking the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday.

According to NFL PickWatch, 74 percent of the writers, analysts and talking heads on television are picking a Chiefs win in the AFC title game. That’s not as high as the NFC side of things as 80 percent pick the Packers over the Bucs, but it’s still a large faction.

In terms of those Bill-eving, the 26 percent of experts that are on the good guy’s side this week and have picked Buffalo to win include: Marcus Grant (NFL.com), Mike Clay (ESPN) and Dan Graziano (ESPN).

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Bills have slight edge on Ravens among ‘experts’

Buffalo Bills are favored to win among experts vs. Baltimore Ravens.

The Bills have a slight edge on the Ravens in more ways than one.

First, the oddsmakers have had Buffalo consistently as a 2.5-point favorite this week in most sportsbooks, including BetMGM. Now the so-called “experts” share similar feelings ahead of their AFC Divisional round meeting against Baltimore.

According to NFL Pickwatch, the Bills (13-3) have the tiniest of margins over the Ravens (11-5) in terms of writers, analysts and talking heads on television that picked who they think will come out on top. The Bills are favored by 57 percent of the folks that were surveyed by the outlet.

By comparison, it’s pretty much the same split for the NFC meeting between the Saints and Bucs. The Saints are picked by 56 percent of this same bunch.

In terms of Buffalo, among those who do think the Bills will pull out the win include: Mina Kimes (ESPN), Mike Clay (ESPN), Pete Prisco (CBS Sports) and Michael David Smith (Pro Football Talk).

On the flip side, some of those picking against the Bills (and feel free to take notes), include: Nate Davis (USA TODAY), Maurice Jones-Drew (NFL.com), Greg Rosenthal (NFL.com) and Mike Florio (Pro Football Talk).

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‘Experts’ pick Bills the most over any Wild Card weekend team

Buffalo Bills are team most-picked to win over the entire Wild Card weekend.

The Buffalo Bills are a touchdown favorite heading into their first home playoff game in over two decades against the Indianapolis Colts. If you’re thinking that’s a big gap, the so-called “experts” take it a step even further than that.

NFL PickWatch polled analysts, writers and the talking heads on television from across the country this week and among them, the Bills (13-3) have the most backing. Not just “most” in terms of this game, either… of all Wild Card weekend games.

Per the poll, 95 percent of experts pick Buffalo to top the Colts (11-5). More picked the Bills than even the Saints (94%) over the Bears and Bucs (93%) over the Football Team.

But of course, we don’t have a full house here. We’ve got a couple of folks that have picked Indy to win.

Following the game, if the Bills do win, feel free to remind a couple of them about their picking against the Bills on social media. Some of those include Jarrett Bell (USA TODAY), David Boclair (Sports Illustrated) and Will Brinson (CBS Sports).

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Let’s look at what the experts think about the Gators’ chances vs Mizzou

Florida Gators and Missouri Tigers face off in The Swamp on Saturday and the college football media had plenty to say about the SEC matchup.

The Gators are back in action this weekend after a two-week break to take on the Missouri Tigers in a game that was supposed to take place last Saturday.

But a slew of positive COVID-19 cases on Florida’s team caused it to shut down football activities until this past Monday. The Gators hope to avoid rust on Saturday in a game in which it is a 13.5-point favorite. Here’s what the experts say about that one.

‘Experts’ finally jump off Bills bandwagon

NFL “experts” picking the Kansas City Chiefs over the Buffalo Bills in Week 6.

Maybe it was the Buffalo Bills proving them wrong last week? Maybe it’s just because the Kansas City Chiefs, in their own right, are good?

Regardless, the Bills are not the one the so-called “experts” are picking heading into their Week 6 contest.

Of the NFL analysts, writers and talking heads on television that were polled by NFL Pick Watch, a big 89 percent of them think the Chiefs will leave Buffalo with a win on Monday. But that doesn’t really mean a thing, considering 87 percent of the same grouping of those polled thought the Bills would beat the Tennessee Titans in Week 5, too.

Heading into the Bills-Chiefs game, both teams are coming off losses as well… both enter the game at 4-1 overall.

But as usual, if you’re in a “tagging” mood on social media after the game and want to give a shoutout to some of those folks doubting the Bills against the Chiefs and Buffalo happens to win… here’s a couple of folks who picked Kansas City to win: Mike Clay (ESPN), Jason La Canfora (CBS Sports), Nick Shook (NFL.com), Will Brinson (CBS Sports), Greg Rosenthal (NFL.com), and Mike Florio (PFT).

… and in the spirit of Bill-eving, here’s some of the few who think the Bills will pull off the upset and win: Colleen Wolfe (NFL.com), Rich Eisen (NFL), Andrew Brandt (MMQB), Pete Prisco (CBS Sports) and Albert Breer (MMQB).

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Gators News: August 19, 2020

Things are hopping here at Gators Wire as we continue to move straight ahead towards a fall 2020 Southeastern Conference football season. 

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It is humpday and things are hopping here at Gators Wire as we continue to move straight ahead towards a fall 2020 Southeastern Conference football season.

At the top of the news, USA TODAY Sports’ Dan Wolken thinks that shaming students won’t make college football any more possible this fall. You know, people who, for better or worse, cannot be shamed into anything.

Over in Alabama, the Crimson Tide plans to allow limited fans at Bryant-Denny Stadium – which holds more than 100,000 fans – to 20% capacity, which includes a facemask requirement and a moratorium on tailgating activities on campus.

Josh Peter, also at USA TODAY Sports, wonders why experts disagree on the safety of college football amid COVID-19: it’s the same data, same research, but different conclusions on the safety of playing the sport this fall.

In college basketball news, the NCAA aims for mid-September a decision on the start of the college basketball season. Dan Gavitt, the NCAA’s senior vice-president of basketball, released a statement Monday saying the Division I Men’s and Women’s Oversight Committees will take the lead in finalizing any recommendations for consideration by the Division I Council.

Be sure to check out all of our latest articles here at Gators Wire!

Around the Swamp

It’s great to be a Florida Gator!

 

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How did draft experts grade the 2020 Saints rookie class?

The New Orleans Saints’ 2020 NFL Draft class was graded well by most experts, but it didn’t rank high among other teams around the league.

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This year’s four-man New Orleans Saints draft class makes up in quality what it might lack in quantity. First-round draft pick Cesar Ruiz is expected to start right away (whether at center or guard), while third-round selections Zack Baun and Adam Trautman should each crack the rotation at linebacker and tight end, respectively. Seventh-round flyer Tommy Stevens is gearing up to do his best Taysom Hill impression, a role he pioneered at Penn State with future Saints assistant coach Joe Brady.

And that’s a fine haul (if an unspectacular one) for a team expected to contend for Super Bowl LV. Many draft experts agree, having graded the Saints with an average GPA of 2.79 for their work in the 2020 NFL Draft. ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. was lukewarm, though, grading the Saints with a ‘C+’ and dinging them for making just four picks. The analysts at Pro Football Focus were a little more optimistic, offering a ‘B.’

But how does that compare to the rest of the NFL landscape?

The chart embedded below shows how every team was graded by a panel of draft experts from around the NFL’s orbit, and the Saints don’t rank that highly. In fact, New Orleans ranks 10th-worst for what they managed to add in this year’s draft. But somehow, we don’t expect that to hurt their chances of lifting up another Lombardi Trophy next February.

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How did NFL draft experts rank Saints picks Zack Baun, Adam Trautman?

The New Orleans Saints traded up in the 2020 NFL Draft to pick two highly-rated prospects: Wisconsin’s Zack Baun and Dayton’s Adam Trautman

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The New Orleans Saints spent all of their remaining picks in the 2020 NFL Draft to move up in the third round, targeting Wisconsin linebacker Zack Baun and Dayton tight end Adam Trautman in a pair of trades.

But where did the draft experts project them to be picked? The Saints graded both prospects as top-40 selections internally, and scouting reports from various media outlets also rated them highly. Here’s a quick survey:

The Athletic

Dane Brugler was a fan of the pickups; Trautman was his top-rated tight end prospect, projected to be picked late in the second round or early in the third. While the rookie’s lack of experience at the higher levels of college football is worth noting, Brugler spoke highly of the attributes Trautman brings to the NFL:

Overall, Trautman doesn’t have the body of work vs. top-level competition, but his athleticism and pass-catching traits for a player his size make him a highly intriguing prospect, projecting as a future NFL starter and top-75 draft pick.

As for Baun: Brugler graded the Wisconsin product as his fourth-best linebacker and a fringe first-round talent, talking up Baun’s athleticism in the open field and positional versatility. Brugler’s scouting report summary:

Overall, Baun’s evaluation requires some projection because he won’t be a full-time rusher in the NFL, but he displays the fluid athleticism, smarts and motor to line up as a stack linebacker and nickel pass rusher, projecting as a top-40 prospect.

The Draft Network

Meanwhile, Kyle Crabbs spoke highly of Trautman’s versatile route tree and strength as a blocker, though he acknowledged it’ll take some time before the tight end is ready to contribute against NFL competition:

Trautman has length, burst, dominant reps as a blocker, violent hands and the production you would expect from an NFL talent playing on the smaller competitive fields. Trautman will need time and patience, but he can be a seam busting tight end and red zone threat who can align in traditional alignments or flexed wide.

However, Crabbs’ colleague Joe Marino expressed reservations about the time it will take to get Trautman up to speed. Between his background as a high school quarterback who didn’t catch a game until he arrived at Dayton and the low level of competition he faced there, Marino said, Trautman is very much a developmental pick — but a worthwhile one given his skills.

And while he also anticipates a learning curve for Baun, Marino expects the linebacker to fit in and play often for just about any defensive scheme in the league. Crabbs was in agreement with that take, saying that Baun will find the most success in a defense that allows him to move up all over the field. Marino’s summary:

He projects favorably to a 3-4 outside linebacker role at the next level where his versatility to rush the passer, drop in coverage and defend the run is optimized given his modest mass and length. With that said, I believe he can also play SAM linebacker in 4-3 base defenses and rush the passer off the edge on passing downs, making him a scheme-versatile prospect.

ESPN

While Trautman wasn’t included in every analyst’s top-50 lists, Baun was ranked the 31st-best prospect by Mel Kiper. Kiper credited Baun for his ability to play all over the defensive front and generate pressure off both the left and right sides.

NFL Network

Daniel Jeremiah was also a fan of Baun’s, though Trautman didn’t make his top tier, either. He hyped up Baun’s positional flexibility and all-around athleticism, and has a player comparison in mind:

He spends a lot of time playing over tight ends and gets the best of them in the run and pass games. As a rusher, he has a good initial burst and can really bend at the top of his rush. He has a nifty inside counter move and he can get skinny before closing on the quarterback. He mixes in a stutter/bull rush, but usually stalls out after generating some push. He is very athletic as a dropper in coverage. He is very good as a back-side run defender because of his burst and effort. Teams will differ on where to play him at the next level. He reminds me of former USC LB Uchenna Nwosu, someone whose versatility the Chargers have tapped into. I’d do the same with Baun.

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