ESPN FPI – Page 30 – Syndication Server

How ESPN’s FPI views the rest of Auburn’s season

Here is how ESPN’s FPI predicts the rest of Auburn’s season to go.

It’s time to begin to move on from the Penn State loss.

Unfortunately for the Auburn Tigers, their schedule just gets tougher looking down the road. Four of Auburn’s next six opponents are ranked inside the top 20. One of the two opponents that aren’t ranked has not lost at home to Auburn since 1999 (Auburn plays LSU in Baton Rouge on October 2nd.) The schedule is daunting, and the Tigers desperately need some momentum. What are the computer models saying about Auburn’s season?

Here is how ESPN’s FPI predicts the rest of Auburn’s season to go.

Rutgers football now favored in three Big Ten games, bowl eligible per ESPN FPI

Rutgers football is now favored to win in three Big Ten games according to ESPN FPI.

Off to a 3-0 start, Rutgers football is now favored in the most recent ESPN FPI to win three more games. And the overall win total for the Scarlet Knights has improved slightly.

Rutgers beat Delaware 45-13 on Saturday, now giving them two blowout wins to start the season (ESPN FPI heavily favored Rutgers to win in Week 3). The Scarlet Knights are receiving votes in the most USA TODAY Sports AFCA Coaches Poll.

With the strong start, Rutgers is now favored to win at Northwestern on October 16 (53.2 percent), at Illinois (70.9 percent) two weeks later, and then in the season finale at home to Maryland on November 27 (62.9 percent).

Last week, the projections had Rutgers favored in only two Big Ten games (Illinois and Maryland). The model now has added Northwestern, struggling this year and coming off a bad loss at Duke on Saturday, as currently tilting towards the Scarlet Knights.

ESPN FPI has Rutgers projected at 6.6 wins, up from 6.5 wins last week following their Week 2 win at Syracuse.

Rutgers football opens Big Ten play this Saturday against No. 19 Michigan. ESPN FPI gives Rutgers a 12.9 percent chance of winning the conference opener.

The Wolverines are one of five currently ranked teams Rutgers will face over the rest of the season.

ESPN FPI sees weeks of disappointment ahead for the Wisconsin Badgers

The Wisconsin Badgers were on bye this weekend while the rest of the country continued their 2021 seasons.

Sights are now set on next weekend’s Windy City showdown with QB Jack Coan and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, a game that figures to tell us a lot about how good this Badger team truly is.

We saw some impressive performances from some of Wisconsin’s future opponents while the Badgers weren’t in action yesterday. Notre Dame defeated Purdue 27-13, Michigan routed Northern Illinois 63-10 and Minnesota shut out Colorado 30-0.

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Thanks to some of those results, ESPN FPI now sees disappointing weeks ahead for the Wisconsin Badgers:

Auburn football inside top 10 in latest ESPN FPI rankings

Despite the Tigers’ strength of schedule, they have managed to crack inside the ESPN FPI top 10.

Despite the Tigers’ strength of schedule, they have managed to crack inside the ESPN FPI top 10 heading into their showdown with Penn State in Happy Valley. The Nittany Lions sit at no. 8.

Auburn’s current strength of schedule is 130th nationally, which is dead last. However, their remaining strength of schedule is second nationally only behind Arkansas. There are six other SEC schools in the FPI’s top 25, including Arkansas, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Florida, Georgia, and Alabama. Five of those six teams are on Auburn’s remaining schedule. Throw in Penn State, and Auburn is staring down one of the toughest schedules in the nation. This week, we will find out a lot about the Tigers.

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Wisconsin football game-by-game win probabilities updated by ESPN FPI

The Wisconsin Badgers rebounded in a big way on Saturday with their 34-7 rout of Eastern Michigan—taking care of business against a poor opponent and answering questions after Week 1’s tough loss.

All eyes now turn to Jack Coan and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Wisconsin will sit at home this weekend on a bye week while Coan and his team face Purdue.

Then next week? Bags are packed for a trip to Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois.

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We’ll have a lot on that game in the coming days. But first, it’s time to take a look at Wisconsin’s updated ESPN FPI win probabilities for the remainder of the regular season:

Oregon Ducks given 4th best odds to make College Football Playoff

Now sitting at No. 3 in their power rankings, ESPN gives Oregon a 41.5% chance to make the CFP, which are the 4th highest odds in the nation.

After a monumental win, it’s always fun to look ahead and see what can eventually come of it.

For the Oregon Ducks, who just shocked the world and upset the Ohio State Buckeyes on the road, 35-28, a new bar of success has been set for the current season, with legitimate aspirations for making the College Football Playoff now looking probable.

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According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Ducks should feel pretty confident about those expectations as well, where they now have the 4th best odds in the nation to eventually make the playoff. Here is how ESPN’s FPI broke down Oregon’s chances throughout the rest of the season:

Win-out: 11.8 %
Win Division: 82%
Win Conference: 60.5%
Make College Football Playoff: 41.5% (4th highest odds)
Make National Championship: 12.9 % (5th highest odds)
Win National Championship: 4.1% (6th highest odds)

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Updated game-by-game predictions for Texas using ESPN’s FPI after the Arkansas loss

How likely are they to win the remaining games on their schedule?

The Steve Sarkisian era got off to a hot start in Week 1, where they defeated then ranked No. 23 Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 38-18 and looked solid and composed in all three phases. Continue reading “Updated game-by-game predictions for Texas using ESPN’s FPI after the Arkansas loss”

Updated game-by-game predictions for Texas using ESPN’s Football Power Index

The Longhorns are now favored in all but one game on their schedule according to ESPN’s updated FPI.

The Steve Sarkisian era at Texas got off to a strong start in Week 1. Continue reading “Updated game-by-game predictions for Texas using ESPN’s Football Power Index”

Wisconsin football game-by-game win probabilities updated by ESPN FPI

Wisconsin’s 2021 season-opener did not live up to the expectations we saw build throughout the offseason.

Camp Randall was full and rocking, Graham Mertz was back to begin his second year, the team was healthy and the schedule lined up to be manageable.

Well, despite outgaining Penn State, holding the ball for nearly 43 minutes of game time and driving within the Penn State 10 yard line four times, the Nittany Lions came away with a 16-10 victory.

The performance can be looked at one of two ways:

First, the Badgers outplayed a great football team and are in a good position moving forward (glass half full).

Or second, Graham Mertz showed some of the same 2020 struggles, the offensive line was poor and the Badgers lost an easily-winnable game.

Either way, there is a lot of football left to be played and this loss will not define the season.

So looking forward, here is Wisconsin’s updated ESPN FPI win probabilities for the remainder of the regular season:

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Texas moves up to No. 7 in ESPN’s updated college football FPI

ESPN ranks Texas 7th in their updated FPI rankings.

ESPN recently published a new College Football Power Index for the 2021 season, which is a system that predicts how teams will perform based off team strength. FPI ratings are based off predictive offensive, defensive, and special teams value, as measured by a function of expected points that will be added.

The Longhorns made quite a leap, moving all the way up to No. 7. In the first rankings that were released in the spring, Texas was No. 12.

The move to seventh puts Texas above schools such as Notre Dame, Big 12 foe Iowa State, and Miami. Passing Iowa State also indicates that the Longhorns have a better chance of making/winning the Big 12, and an even better shot to make the College Football Playoff.

Even with the brand new coaching staff and new players all over the field, the FPI gave Texas the second-best chance to win the Big 12 behind Oklahoma. The Longhorns were also given a 11.6% chance to make the College Football Playoff.

The updated FPI indicates that the Big 12 will be home to the second toughest conference schedule across all conferences.

The system does view Texas as the most likely to challenge Oklahoma for the Big 12 crown, which can be attributed to the amount of talent on the roster. Steve Sarkisian’s offense will have a more aggressive nature, and the defense is likely to be more productive as well. This can very well be the best season of Longhorn football in a decade.