Tag: ESPN FPI

ESPN predicts 49ers to finish 2024 schedule strong

ESPN shared scored predictions for the 2024 season’s final three weeks and it shows the 49ers finishing the season strong.

The San Francisco 49ers have just three games left in their 2024 season.

Sitting with a 6-8 overall record and a 1-4 mark in NFC West games, San Francisco is all but eliminated from the NFL playoffs.

Still, the 49ers want to end the 2024 season with some pride and they have the opportunity to finish with a winning record if they win out.

With games left at Miami (6-8), versus Detroit (12-2) and at Arizona (7-7), San Francisco has the opportunity to end the season with some momentum and set the table for a return to prominence in 2025.

Using simulations from its Football Power Index, ESPN forecasted every remaining game in the NFL’s regular season, including how the 49ers’ final three games would play out.

ESPN’s simulation forecasts San Francisco to close its final three weeks strong. Here’s what the simulation produced for scores in the 49ers’ final three games of 2024:

  • Week 16: San Francisco 24, Miami 14
  • Week 17: Detroit 38, San Francisco 31
  • Week 18: San Francisco 19, Arizona 10

While these results wouldn’t have the 49ers finishing with a winning record, it does have San Francisco closing with two more wins and a one-score loss against the projected No. 1 seed in the NFC in Detroit.

Among some of the other notable projections from ESPN’s FPI, the simulation forecasts the Los Angeles Rams to top the Seattle Seahawks in the season’s final week, 16-7, and capture the NFC West crown.

ESPN’s FPI projects the full seeding in the NFC to play out as follows: Detroit is the No. 1 seed, Philadelphia No. 2, Tampa Bay No. 3, Los Angeles No. 4, Minnesota No. 5, Green Bay No. 6 and Washington No. 7.

In the AFC, ESPN’s FPI projects the Kansas City Chiefs to capture the No. 1 seed, though Buffalo would close to within one game of Kansas City after a Chiefs loss against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17.

The full AFC Playoff picture looks like this per ESPN’s FPI simulation: Kansas City is the No. 1 seed, Buffalo No. 2, Pittsburgh No. 3, Houston No. 4, Baltimore No. 5, the Los Angeles Chargers No. 6 and Denver No. 7.

Kickoff for San Francisco at Miami in Week 16 is set for 1:25 p.m PT and the game will air on CBS.

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Where Georgia ranks in ESPN’s Football Power Index

ESPN’s Football Power Index rankings after rivalry week. Where do UGA, Texas rank entering the SEC championship?

ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) rankings are out after rivalry week. FPI has two top five teams in the Georgia Bulldogs and Texas Longhorns playing the SEC championship.

According to ESPN, FPI is defined as “a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward.” In the FPI, nine of the top 25 teams are in the SEC, including five of the top 10.

Even with several upsets in Week 14, there were minimal changes in the FPI rankings. Georgia almost lost to Georgia Tech, with the Bulldogs needing eight overtimes to win. In one of the most entertaining games of the season, Georgia came out on top.

Despite the win, Georgia is behind two other teams that suffered losses to unranked teams. In Week 13, Alabama lost to Oklahoma 24-3, and in Rivalry Week, Ohio State lost “The Game” to Michigan 13-10. Ohio State and Alabama are currently No. 3 and No. 4 respectively. Both teams are ahead of Georgia, who is No. 5.

The Bulldogs will be playing in the SEC championship game against the Texas Longhorns, who are the No. 1 ranked team. Texas took care of business on the road against the Texas A&M Aggies to clinch an SEC championship berth.

Week 15 is championship weekend, which can have a big impact on FPI rankings and the College Football Playoffs.

ESPN’s FPI Top 25 after Week 14

© Aaron E. Martinez/Austin American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
  1. Texas (26.5 FPI)
  2. Notre Dame (25.3 FPI)
  3. Ohio State (24.8 FPI)
  4. Alabama (23.9 FPI)
  5. Georgia (21.6 FPI)
  6. Oregon (20.8 FPI)
  7. Tennessee (20.7 FPI)
  8. Ole Miss (20.5 FPI)
  9. Penn State (20.4 FPI)
  10. Indiana (18.7 FPI)
  11. Miami (17.5 FPI)
  12. SMU (16.6 FPI)
  13. Louisville (16.4 FPI)
  14. South Carolina (14.7 FPI)
  15. Clemson (14.4 FPI)
  16. Texas A&M (14.3 FPI)
  17. LSU (13.5 FPI)
  18. USC (13.3 FPI)
  19. Colorado (12.7 FPI)
  20. Tulane (12.2 FPI)
  21. Missouri (12.2 FPI)
  22. Florida (11.8 FPI)
  23. Iowa State (11.6 FPI)
  24. Iowa (11.4 FPI)
  25. Kansas State (11.3 FPI)

Oregon Ducks not favored to win Big Ten Championship, per ESPN FPI

A look at the Oregon Ducks’ remaining win probability in every game of the 2024 season, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.

The Oregon Ducks accomplished many things on Saturday night with their 49-21 win over the Washington Huskies, one of which has only happened once in program history. 

With the dominant win over the Huskies, Oregon completed an undefeated 12-0 regular season for just the second time ever, and the first time since 2010. It also gave Dan Lanning his first career win against Washington at long last. 

Now Oregon will turn its attention forward to Indianapolis, where they will face the Penn State Nittany Lions in the Big Ten Championship Game on Saturday night. 

This will be the first time that Oregon and Penn State have played each other since the 1995 Rose Bowl, and their first meeting as Big Ten Conference foes. 

So as the only undefeated team in the nation, and the No. 1 team in the country, the Ducks should be favored to win this neutral site game, right? While the betting market may suggest that’s the case, ESPN’s Football Power Index doesn’t agree. 

For those unfamiliar with ESPN’s FPI, it is an index that “relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.” In essence, it’s ESPN’s way of declaring the top teams in the nation, looking at their roster, their schedule, their percentage to win each game, and where that ultimately lands them after the season comes to an end.

In short, it looks at Oregon’s 2024 schedule and predicts what percentage the Ducks have to win each game, and make it into the postseason and beyond. Throughout the year, the numbers change based on past performance, injuries, and other variables. Let’s take a look at what the numbers say following Week 14:

Oregon vs. Penn State — Week 15

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 49.0%

Oregon Ducks Overall Season Outlook

Percent Chance to Win Out: 49.1%

Previous Odds: 31.1%

Percent Chance to Win Conference: 49.1%

(Penn State Conference Title Odds: 50.1%)

Previous Odds: 38.0%

Percent Chance to Make College Football Playoff: 100.0%

Previous Odds: 99.8%

Percent Chance to Make National Championship: 21.8%

Previous Odds: 18.5%

Percent Chance to Win National Championship: 9.0%

Previous Odds: 7.5%

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Duke football barely moves in ESPN FPI rankings after Week 14 win over Wake Forest

Even with its third straight win clinching a 9-3 regular season, Duke still can’t crack the top 50 of the ESPN FPI rankings.

The Duke Blue Devils cemented their second nine-win season since 2022 on Saturday with a 14-point comeback against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons, cementing a season sweep of the state with a last-second touchdown catch from star wideout Jordan Moore.

While the Blue Devils capped off a 9-3 regular-season campaign with three straight wins, the ESPN Football Power Index continued to keep Duke on the outside of its upper echelon.

As of Sunday morning, the Blue Devils are just 54th in the FPI rankings, a single spot higher than they were last week.

As has been the case all season, Duke remained below teams with losing records and even a team it defeated. The Virginia Tech Hokies, who beat Virginia on Saturday to reach six wins, stuck at 35th despite a loss to the Blue Devils in Week 13. The Auburn Tigers (29th), Kansas Jayhawks (34th), UCF Knights (43rd), Utah Utes (46th), Wisconsin Badgers (48th), and Kentucky Wildcats (49th) ended up above the Blue Devils despite failing to clinch bowl eligibility.

No ACC teams cracked the top 10 of the national rankings after Miami’s loss to Syracuse, but the Hurricanes (11th), SMU Mustangs (12th), Louisville Cardinals (13th), and Clemson Tigers (15th) all sit just on the outside.

Luke Fickell’s Badgers have yet to beat a team as good as the 2024 Minnesota Golden Gophers

Luke Fickell’s Badgers have yet to beat a team as good as the 2024 Minnesota Golden Gophers

The following statistic tells an accurate story for those in search of a glimpse at Wisconsin football’s current state of affairs under head coach Luke Fickell: the Badgers are 0-and-9 against teams ranked higher than No. 50 in ESPN FPI since the start of 2023.

Looking a year-end FPI numbers from 2023 and the updated rankings entering the final week of 2024, the Badgers’ best win was against Rutgers (No. 50) last season. Otherwise, Wisconsin has lost every game against a team inside FPI’s top 50.

Those losses include the following:

Fickell was hired to not only win those matchups but elevate the Badgers toward the top tier of the Big Ten. Obviously, that has yet to come to fruition.

That reality sets up the Badgers’ upcoming rivalry matchup against Minnesota. The Gophers enter 6-5 on the season and 4-4 in Big Ten play. Their quality is better than the record suggests — FPI currently ranks the team No. 33 in the nation.

That ranking can be attributed to narrow losses to North Carolina, Michigan and top-ranked Penn State, plus statement wins over USC and Illinois. The Gophers are a few bounces of the football away from 9-2 and long-shot College Football Playoff contention.

Of note, Wisconsin has not beaten a team close to the quality of the 2024 Gophers, according to FPI, during the Fickell era. That reality creates an opportunity for a defining victory, but it also paints a negative light on the team’s chances. That 0-for-9 mark against top-50 teams is a significant trend that doesn’t come as some large fluke.

The Badgers need a win to clinch bowl eligibility for the 23rd consecutive season. Maybe most importantly, they need a win to show some life under the no-longer-new regime.

Wisconsin and Minnesota will kick off at noon ET, 11 a.m. CT on Friday afternoon.

Contact/Follow @TheBadgersWire on X (formerly Twitter), and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin Badgers news, notes, and opinion.

Georgia still behind two SEC teams in ESPN FPI rankings

ESPN released their updated FPI rankings after an upset-filled Week 13. Where is Georgia football?

ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) rankings are out after Week 13’s college football chaos. Week 13 featured several upsets, so there were some big changes made to the rankings.

According to ESPN, FPI is defined as “a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward.” In the FPI, nine of the top 25 teams are in the SEC, including five of the top 10.

The Bulldogs avoided being upset this week, defeating the UMass Minutemen 59-21. UMass played Georgia tough and took advantage of the Bulldogs’ lax tackling, but the Bulldog offense dominated in this game.

Carson Beck had one of his best games in 2024 and Nate Frazier had a potential coming out party as an elite RB1. Despite the Bulldogs’ dominance, Georgia still rank No. 5 in ESPN’s FPI rankings. However, Georgia fans aren’t sweating it because the Bulldogs officially clinched their fourth-straight SEC championship berth.

They clinched it due to the Alabama Crimson Tide stunningly losing to the Oklahoma Sooners 24-3. The Sooners’ defense forced Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe to throw three interceptions to win the game. Alabama dropped two spots to No. 4 on the FPI rankings, and Oklahoma emerged into the rankings at No. 23.

The biggest matchup of the week was Indiana-Ohio State, which was not competitive. The Buckeyes whooped the Hoosiers 38-15. The Ohio State defense only allowed 68 passing yards and sacked Kurtis Rourke five times. Ohio State will be Oregon’s opponent in the Big Ten championship unless the Buckeyes lose to Michigan.

The SMU Mustangs are the highest risers in FPI. The Mustangs climb up three spots to No. 12 following their 33-7 win against Virginia, which gave SMU a spot in the ACC championship. The Boise State Broncos, another potential playoff team, fell six spots to No. 27 after squeaking by against Wyoming in a 17-13 win.

Week 14 is rivalry weekend, so tons of upsets are bound to take place in each matchup. The Texas-Texas A&M matchup has the most at stake. Whichever team wins that matchup will play Georgia in the SEC championship game in Atlanta.

ESPN’s FPI Top 25 after Week 13

Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

  1. Texas (26.5 FPI)
  2. Ohio State (26.2 FPI)
  3. Notre Dame (24.7 FPI)
  4. Alabama (24.3 FPI)
  5. Georgia (22.5 FPI)
  6. Ole Miss (21.3 FPI)
  7. Oregon (20.8 FPI)
  8. Tennessee (20.5cFPI)
  9. Penn State (20.3 FPI)
  10. Miami (18.2 FPI)
  11. Indiana (17.3 FPI)
  12. SMU (15.4 FPI)
  13. Louisville (15.1 FPI)
  14. Clemson (14.8 FPI)
  15. Texas A&M (14.4 FPI)
  16. South Carolina (14.3 FPI)
  17. Tulane (13.8 FPI)
  18. USC (13.4 FPI)
  19. LSU (12.8 FPI)
  20. Iowa (12.2 FPI)
  21. Missouri (12 FPI)
  22. Kansas State (12 FPI)
  23. Oklahoma (12.0 FPI)
  24. Colorado (11.7 FPI)
  25. Florida (11.6 FPI)

Predicting Texas A&M’s Week 14 matchup vs. Texas per ESPN FPI

Here is the final ESPN FPI prediction for Texas A&M vs. Texas on Saturday night

Texas A&M’s (8-3, 5-2 SEC) path to the SEC Championship game is clear after Alabama’s shocking loss to Oklahoma. The Aggies’ disappointing overtime defeat at the hands of the Auburn Tigers didn’t sink their College Football Playoff dreams.

However, it all comes down to defeating No. 3 Texas. Both teams will meet on the gridiron for the first time since the 2013 season after the Longhorns joined the SEC in July. A win against their rivals would vault the Aggies into the SEC Championship vs. Georgia.

On Tuesday, Texas A&M dropped five spots to No. 20 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings.

However, remember that this number virtually means nothing due to the Aggies’ path, knowing that two more wins is the only way to avoid a meaningless bowl game. With just three days left before the big game, ESPN’s Football Power Index predicts how Texas A&M vs. Texas could play out.

Texas A&M vs. Texas

Date: Nov. 30

Location: College Station, Kyle Field

ESPN Matchup Predictor: 22.9% chance to win

After losing to Auburn, while Texas took care of business against Kentucky just hours before the game, Texas A&M ESPN’s prediction to defeat the Longhorns rose .3 percentage points compared to last week. Texas QB Quinn Ewers is dealing with a mild ankle issue, but if the Aggie pass rush doesn’t get to him early, the junior signal caller could have a big day through the air.

For more Texas news and analysis, visit Longhorns Wire.

No. 19 Texas A&M will host No. 3 Texas on Saturday, Nov. 30 at 6:30 pm. CT. The game will air on ABC.

Contact/Follow us @AggiesWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Texas A&M news, notes, and opinions. Follow Cameron on Twitter: @CameronOhnysty.

Wisconsin football plummets in ESPN FPI and SP+ after loss to Nebraska

Wisconsin football plummets in ESPN FPI and SP+ after loss to Nebraska

Wisconsin’s season continued to dive in the wrong direction on Saturday, the latest result a 44-25 loss to rival Nebraska.

The Badgers are now 5-6 on the season and 3-5 in Big Ten play. They stood at 5-2 and 3-1, respectively, just four weeks ago. What followed was a home loss to Penn State, a blowout loss to Iowa, a narrow defeat to top-ranked Oregon and Saturday’s historic loss to Nebraska. That four-game stretch has changed the 2024 season, and is beginning to change the overall sentiment surrounding Luke Fickell and the program.

Related: Biggest takeaways from Wisconsin’s 44-25 loss to Nebraska

Part of that sentiment is seen in ESPN FPI and SP+’s latest updates.

Wisconsin entered the Nebraska game ranked No. 34 in FPI. The loss dropped the team down to No. 41. FPI now projects the Badgers’ final record at 5.5 – 6.5 and gives it just a 51% chance to defeat Minnesota in Week 14 and make a bowl game.

SP+ is even less confident in the team’s quality. The Nebraska loss dropped Wisconsin from No. 50 to No. 59 in the metric. It is now ranked as the No. 13 team in the Big Ten, ahead of only Rutgers, Maryland, Michigan State, Northwestern and Purdue.

Having a coin-flip Week 14 game to reach bowl eligibility and being ranked in the class of Rutgers and Maryland is far below the program’s typical standard. It’s also far below the expectation set by both Chris McIntosh and Luke Fickell when the latter was hired in 2022.

A win over Minnesota to extend the program’s bowl streak to 23 games would be an important step in the right direction. Otherwise, the program’s rapid fall from national relevance will only continue.

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Where are the Duke Blue Devils in the ESPN FPI rankings after Week 13?

After Duke’s eighth win of the 2024 college football season, where do the Blue Devils rank on the ESPN Football Power Index?

The Blue Devils continued their ascent up the college football world on Saturday night, scoring two touchdowns on their first four offensive plays en route to a 31-28 victory over the Virginia Tech Hokies.

However, despite Duke’s 8-3 record, head coach [autotag]Manny Diaz[/autotag] and his team remain well down the rankings on the ESPN Football Power Index.

The Blue Devils rose three spots to 55th in the national rankings on Sunday, and the improvement actually moved them back above the North Carolina Tar Heels. UNC tumbled down to 57th after it spent Saturday on the wrong side of a 41-21 Boston College blowout.

However, several teams with worse records remain above Duke, even just in the ACC. The Eagles (6-5) vaulted up to 50th with their big win over the Tar Heels, the California Golden Bears (6-5) remain 46th despite nearly losing to Stanford, and the Hokies (5-6) themselves still managed to stay within the top 40.

The SMU Mustangs (12th) clinched a spot in the ACC title game with their victory over Virginia, and if the Miami Hurricanes (10th) beat Syracuse in Week 14, they’ll join them in Charlotte. However, an Orange upset would send the Clemson Tigers (14th) to the big game.

Predicting Texas A&M’s 2 remaining football games ahead of Week 13 per ESPN FPI

Here is how ESPN predicts the Aggies final two games of the regular season

Texas A&M (8-2, 5-1 SEC) will travel to Alabama on Saturday night to face the Auburn Tigers (4-6, 1-5 SEC). This game is a trap game by every definition, as the Aggies need to win to advance to the SEC Title game. Starting at No. 15 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, A&M’s trajectory is simple: win, and you’re in. However, the Aggies’ last SEC road game against South Carolina resulted in a 44-20 loss to the Gamecocks, but let’s remember that the Tigers are currently 1-5 in SEC play. After defeating New Mexico State 38-3 in Week 12, head coach Mike Elko made a slip of the tongue when stating that the Aggies are focused on Auburn (accidentally saying Texas), but don’t let that distract you from his previous quote regarding the focus his team has, knowing that every snap now matters more than ever.
“We’re at a different spot, too, and we have to understand that people are going to play really well against us right now. We’re in first place in the SEC; we’re in the top 15 in the country.” “We just got to understand what all that is about.”
According to ESPN, FPI are the latest predictions for A&M’s Week 13 road test against Auburn and the season finale vs. Texas.

Texas A&M at Auburn

Date: Nov. 23 Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium ESPN Matchup Predictor: 58.1% chance Texas A&M wins Texas A&M’s run defense will be key against Tigers running back Jarquez Hunter while keeping quarterback Payton Thorne in the pocket and under constant pressure, which is the key to keeping this a low-scoring game. For more Auburn news and analysis, visit Auburn Wire.

Texas A&M vs. Texas

Date: Nov. 30 Location: College Station, Kyle Field ESPN Matchup Predictor: 22.3% chance to win Texas A&M’s chances to defeat rival Texas virtually remained the same, but if the Aggies can get past Auburn, I expect the odds makers to increase A&M’s chances at shocking the nation on the final week of the regular season. For more Texas news and analysis, visit Longhorns Wire. Contact/Follow us @AggiesWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Texas A&M news, notes, and opinions. Follow Cameron on Twitter: @CameronOhnysty.