ESPN FPI – Syndication Server

ESPN FPI predicts No. 13 Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma on Tuesday night

Here is how ESPN FPI is predicting Texas A&M’ Tuesday night home matchup vs. Oklahoma

After falling to rival Texas in the final seconds of Saturday’s road matchup, Texas A&M (15-5, 4-3 SEC) kept its No. 13 ranking in the latest AP Top 25 update. The Aggies are in a great position heading into week 13, set to host Oklahoma on Tuesday night.

Tied with five teams in the SEC standings at 4-3, coach Buzz Williams took full blame for A&M’s 70-69 loss to the Longhorns, knowing that after building a 22-point lead in the second half, allowing the home team to storm back, including freshman guard Tre Johnson’s career-high 30 points, fell at his feet.

Sustaining significant leads has been an issue for the Aggies this season. While they were able to hang on in all but two games during nonconference play, Saturday’s loss is a lesson for a team that needs to keep its foot on the gas when large leads are built.

Oklahoma finished 2-0 last week, defeating South Carolina and Arkansas, the worst teams in the conference. Still, the Aggies know that the Sooners are a skilled team with plenty of talent looking to earn an SEC road win after Texas A&M defeated Oklahoma 80-78 behind senior guard Zhuric Phelps‘ heroic performance.

Before the game, here is how ESPN FPI is predicting the matchup:

ESPN FPI:

Texas A&M: 79.4% chance to win

Oklahoma: 20.6% chance to win

Texas A&M is a significant improvement home favorite, only losing one home game all season after falling to Alabama earlier this month. However, replicating their first-half performance against Texas is key, even though that is highly unlikely given the Aggies’ lack of offensive consistency.

Texas A&M will return to Reed Arena to host Oklahoma on Jan. 28 at 8:00 p.m. CST. The game can be watched on the SEC Network.

Contact/Follow us @AggiesWire on X and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Texas A&M news, notes and opinions. Follow Cameron on X: @CameronOhnysty.

ESPN FPI predicts No. 13 Texas A&M’s road test vs. Texas on Saturday

Here is how ESPN’ FPI predictor sees Texas A&M vs. Texas playing out on Saturday afternoon

Texas A&M (15-4, 4-2 SEC) entered the week as the 13th-ranked team in the country, and with the return of star guard Wade Taylor IV, the Aggies were in good spirits before taking on No. 16 Ole Miss on the road during Wednesday night’s SEC showdown.

Throughout conference play, Texas A&M’s defense has stopped chiefly opposing offenses from reaching their scoring averages, which continued against the Rebels before one of the craziest endings to place in favor of the road team.

The Aggies remained competitive in a game with only 13 free throw attempts by making 7 of 9 from the line. Ole Miss guard Davon Barnes missed a free throw with just 19 seconds left, providing the Aggies an opportunity to tie or take the lead.

Senior guard Zhuric Phelps then assisted Manny Obaseki on a crucial 3-pointer, and a strong defensive play secured Texas A&M’s unexpected 63-62 win. With the victory, the Aggies hold a combined 10-4 Quad 1 & 2 record, tied for third nationally.

Next, the Aggies will travel to face rival Texas on Saturday afternoon, looking to sweep the Longhorns and reach an impressive 5-2 start to SEC play. Before the game, here is how ESPN FPI is predicting the matchup:

ESPN FPI:

Texas A&M: 43.1% chance to win

Texas: 56.9% chance to win

Texas A&M defeated the Longhorns 80-60 in Reed Arena to open SEC play. Still, after defeating Missouri earlier this week, Texas is improving defensively and is desperate to build a winning streak to help their NCAA Tournament resume.

Texas A&M will stay on the road when they travel to Austin to face Texas on Jan. 25 at 1:30 p.m. CST. The game can be watched on ESPN2.

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ESPN FPI predicts No. 11 Texas A&M’s home matchup vs. LSU on Saturday night

Texas A&M needs to avoid a long term losing streak in SEC play

Texas A&M (13-4, 2-2 SEC) needs to get right after losing consecutive SEC matchups against Alabama and Kentucky this week, all while missing star point guard Wade Taylor IV, who continues to deal with a lower-body injury.

However, the Aggies can afford to suffer multiple Quad 1 losses but need to get back on a winning streak starting this Saturday night against LSU, returning to Reed Arena with the hope that Taylor Will return for the first time in over a week.

Still, even if Taylor can’t go, Texas A&M’s half-court offense has been nonexistent, and the team’s poor free-throw shooting directly contributed to Saturday’s loss to the Crimson Tide. At the same time, coach Buzz Williams has refused to put younger guards on the court to at least try something out.

While the SEC is a juggernaut, LSU (12-5, 1-3 SEC) has struggled in conference play but is not a team to ignore, especially senior guard Cam Carter, who leads the Tigers with 17.7 ppg.

LSU can be exposed defensively, meaning Aggie senior guards Zhuric Phelps and Manny Obaseki need to focus on driving the paint, finishing at the rim, and, most importantly, avoiding turnovers to prevent the Tigers from scoring easy transition points.

Texas A&M is a slight home favorite. Here is how ESPN FPI predicts the matchup will go:

ESPN FPI:

Texas A&M: 82.7% chance to win

LSU: 17.3% chance to win

After facing one of the most challenging stretches to open SEC play, the Aggies should look at least marginally improved at home. However, this all hinges on Friday night’s availability report regarding Wade Taylor’s updated status.

Texas A&M will return home to face LSU at Reed Arena on Jan. 18 at 7:30 p.m. CST. The game can be watched on SEC Network.

Contact/Follow us @AggiesWire on X and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Texas A&M news, notes, and opinions. Follow Cameron on X: @CameronOhnysty.

ESPN FPI Predicts No. 11 Texas A&M’s road test vs. No. 8 Kentucky

Texas A&M’s Tuesday night road test vs. No. 8 Kentucky will be the third consecutive matchup without star guard Wade Taylor IV

Texas A&M (13-3, 2-1 SEC) will face another test in SEC play, as the conference looks like an absolute juggernaut after two weeks of the game, while the Aggies’ 2-1 start is impressive, especially without star guard Wade Taylor IV on the court for the last two matchups.

On Tuesday, the Aggies will face No. 8 Kentucky on the road inside Rupp Arena, looking to pull off another road victory after defeating Oklahoma last Wednesday.

Following a strong nonconference showing, Texas A&M’s NCAA Tournament resume remains among the best nationwide. However, the Aggies need to conclude conference play with a record of .500 or better to guarantee a top 5 seed in March.

Just three days after the Aggies’ 94-88 home loss to Alabama, the latest SEC Availability report revealed that A&M will be without Wade Taylor for the third consecutive game. The senior’s lower-body injury will more than likely keep him sidelined until Saturday’s home game against LSU.

Kentucky’s offense, ranked third nationally, just below Alabama, has been a problem for every opponent, as the Wildcats’ spread-out attack will be a problem for Texas A&M’s perimeter defense, which has struggled as of late.

Favored by nearly seven points, here is how ESPN FPI predicts the matchup will go:

ESPN FPI:

Texas A&M: 39.6% chance to win

Kentucky: 60.5% chance to win

It’s no surprise that Kentucky is a significant favorite to win outright, especially at home, and given the Aggies’ past road issues early in conference play, it will take a perfect outing from the Maroon & White to pull off the upset.

Texas A&M will return to face No. 6 Kentucky at Rupp Arena on Jan. 14 at 6:00 p.m. CST. The game can be watched on ESPN2.

Contact/Follow us @AggiesWire on X and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Texas A&M news, notes and opinions. Follow Cameron on X: @CameronOhnysty

ESPN FPI Predicts No. 10 Texas A&M’s home test vs. No. 5 Alabama

Here is how ESPN is prediction Texas A&M vs. Alabama on Saturday night

No. 10 Texas A&M (13-2, 2-0 SEC) will host No. 5 Alabama on Saturday night, just three days after senior guard Zhuric Phelps scored a career-high 34 points, including 6-1 from beyond the arc as the Aggies stormed back from 18-points down to defeat No. 17 Oklahoma on the road.

On the other side, Alabama looks like one of the best teams in the country, led by senior guard Mark Sears, who nearly averages 20 points per game. After defeating South Carolina by 20 points on Wednesday night, the Tide is more than ready to take on one of the best defenses in the country in a challenging road environment.

However, this game is challenging to accurately predict before the status of Texas A&M star guard Wade Taylor IV, who missed his second game of the year due to an undisclosed injury but could be back on track to return against the Tide if his energy on the sideline is any indication.

Before the game, here is how ESPN FPI predicts the game will end up, as the Aggies are still slight favorites 24 hours before game time:

ESPN FPI:

Texas A&M: 52.7% chance to win

Alabama: 47.3% chance to win

Texas A&M is undefeated at home, giving the Aggies a slight edge, but this game could go either way and Taylor’s health, combined with the play of Zhuric Phelps and A&M’s front court, especially junior Pharrel Payne.

No. 10 Texas A&M will host No. 5 Alabama on Saturday, Jan. 11. The game will air on ESPN at 7:00 p.m. CT.

Contact/Follow us @AggiesWire on X and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Texas A&M news, notes and opinions. Follow Cameron on X: @CameronOhnysty.

ESPN FPI Predicts No. 13 Texas A&M’s road test vs. No. 12 Oklahoma

ESPN FPI predicts how the Aggies will fare against Oklahoma on the road this week

Texas A&M (12-2) is on a seven-game winning streak after defeating rival Texas in a blowout 80-60 on Saturday night, as the Aggies look like one of the best teams in the country, mainly due to an elite defensive effort that limited the Longhorns to 34% from the floor, and 7-26 from beyond the arc.

This week, the Aggies will face Oklahoma for their first SEC road test of the season, knowing that a win in Norman would put them in a great position to at least split the upcoming matchups against Alabama and Kentucky.

Texas A&M’s success isn’t a fluke. Coach Buzz Williams has assembled his best team, mainly due to the returning veterans and the offseason transfer portal additions, including guard Zhurich Phelps and forward Pharrel Payne.

Phelps and Payne combined for 33 points and 12 rebounds in Saturday’s win, and will be a big part of the Aggies’ gameplan against the Sooners. Before heading on the road for Wednesday’s matchup, here is how ESPN FPI is predicting the matchup:

ESPN FPI:

Texas A&M: 54.7% chance to win

Oklahoma: 45.3% chance to win

It may sound surprising that the Aggies are road favorites, but after Oklahoma fell 107-79 on the road against Alabama on Saturday, A&M’s defense will likely travel and keep the Sooners’ shooting at bay.

Texas A&M will head to Norman to face Oklahoma on Wednesday, Jan. 8. The game will be broadcast on the SEC Network.

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ESPN FPI Predicts No. 13 Texas A&M’s SEC basketball opener vs. Texas

Texas A&M is still a heavy favorite to defeat rival Texas during both program’s SEC openers

Texas A&M (11-2) is off to its best start under coach Buzz Williams during his sixth season with the program. The Aggies cruised through nonconference play with wins over Ohio State, Purdue, and Creighton while staying undefeated at home.

Already building a 3-1 Quad 1 record, Williams’s veteran squad has relied on elite defense and rebounding to keep opponents at bay. At the same time, the offense has continued to improve, especially from beyond the arc.

Still led by senior point guard Wade Taylor IV, fellow senior guard Zhuric Phelps has stepped up, while junior forward Pharrel Payne has begun to make a consistent impact in the paint.

After defeating Abilene Christian 92-54, Texas A&M will open the SEC season vs. rival Texas, who are also 11-2 and riding a four-game winning streak ahead of the Longhorn’s first season in the conference.

Led by freshman guard Tre Johnson, who leads Texas with 19.7 points per game, the Longhorns are talented but somewhat untested compared to Texas A&M, while the Aggies hold the obvious advantage playing at home in Reed Arena.

According to ESPN FPI, Texas A&M has a 63.3% chance to defeat the Longhorns, while the visitors are sitting at 36.7% to pull off the upset.

For Texas A&M to protect the home court on Saturday night, Wade Taylor and Zhuric Phelps must produce double-digit outings. At the same time, the Aggies must win the turnover battle and outrebound the Longhorns while defending the perimeter.

Texas A&M will host Texas on Saturday, Jan. 4, at 7:00 p.m. CT. The game will air on the SEC Network.

Contact/Follow us @AggiesWire on X and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Texas A&M news, notes and opinions. Follow Cameron on X: @CameronOhnysty.

ESPN’s FPI identifies likely winner for Texas-Arizona State

ESPN’s FPI predicts that an SEC team will win the national title

ESPN’s latest Football Power Index gives the Texas Longhorns a 79.4% chance to defeat Arizona State and advance to the College Football Playoff semifinals.

According to ESPN, FPI is defined as “a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward.”

Because the FPI is a mathematical model that takes into account a large number of data points outside of a team’s direct results and record, it doesn’t behave like polls or mirror human-driven rankings. For example, there are four teams in the FPI’s top 12 that did not make the playoff this year: No. 12 Louisville, No. 11 Miami, No. 7 Ole Miss and No. 4 Alabama.

The Georgia Bulldogs are fifth in the FPI rating, behind Alabama; Notre Dame, their Sugar Bowl opponent; Ohio State; and, of course, Texas, who they beat in the regular season and the SEC championship.

ESPN’s FPI

FPI

Texas Longhorns (26.2 FPI)
Ohio State Buckeyes (25.8 FPI)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (25.4 FPI)
Alabama Crimson Tide (24.0 FPI)
Georgia Bulldogs (22.1 FPI)
Oregon Ducks (21.3 FPI)
Ole Miss Rebels (20.7 FPI)
Penn State Nittany Lions (20.6 FPI)
Tennessee Volunteers (20.0 FPI)
Indiana Hoosiers (19.0 FPI)
Miami Hurricanes (16.9 FPI)
Louisville Cardinals (16.3 FPI)

Playoff Teams outside of the top 12: SMU (No. 13, 15.0 FPI), Clemson (No. 15, 14.5 FPI), Arizona State (No. 21, 11.9 FPI), Boise State (No. 25, 10.9 FPI)

Updated ESPN FPI has Oregon Ducks among biggest longshots to win national championship

The Oregon Ducks are considered one of the biggest longshots to win the national championship according to the updated ESPN FPI.

Throughout the entire 2024 college football season, teams across the nation have been competing to get themselves into a position to compete for the national championship.

This past week, we saw eight of the top 12 teams in the nation — those who rightfully earned a spot in the College Football Playoff — compete to advance to the next round and keep their championship hopes alive.

The Ohio State Buckeyes, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Texas Longhorns, and Penn State Nittany Lions were successful in this venture, and they will now go on to join the Oregon Ducks, Georgia Bulldogs, Boise State Broncos, and Arizona State Sun Devils in the quarterfinals.

Of the eight teams remaining, who has the best chance to make it to the national championship game, and ultimately win the first-ever 12-team playoff?

As we’ve done all year long, let’s take a look at the ESPN Football Power Index. For those unfamiliar with ESPN’s FPI, it is an index that “relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.” In essence, it’s ESPN’s way of declaring the top teams in the nation, looking at their roster, their schedule, their percentage to win each game, and where that ultimately lands them after the season comes to an end.

Here’s a look at the latest probabilities for the CFP, according to ESPN.

Oregon Ducks Overall Season Outlook

Oregon vs. Ohio State Win Probability

Oregon Ducks: 46.4%

Ohio State Buckeyes: 53.6%

Percent Chance to Make National Championship:

Texas Longhorns — 47.0%
Notre Dame Fighting Irish— 37.7%
Ohio State Buckeyes — 29.9%
Penn State Nittany Lions — 28.4%
Georgia Bulldogs — 27.1%
Oregon Ducks— 18.0%
Boise State Broncos — 6.7%
Arizona State Sun Devils —5.1%

Percent Chance to Win National Championship:

Texas Longhorns — 27.2%
Notre Dame Fighting Irish — 20.0%
Ohio State Buckeyes — 17.3%
Georgia Bulldogs — 12.9%
Penn State Nittany Lions — 12.1%
Oregon Ducks— 7.7%
Boise State Broncos — 1.4%
Arizona State Sun Devils — 1.3%

For anyone who is surprised by the utter disrespect of the Oregon Ducks in these numbers from ESPN, you obviously haven’t been paying attention this season. We wrote a couple of weeks ago after the Big Ten Championship that the FPI calculations are clearly broken, as they have doubted the Ducks all season long, and continue to do so despite the fact that Oregon is the only undefeated team in the nation, and the No. 1 seed in the playoff.

The good thing is that this computer doesn’t decide who wins the games, the players do. We will see what the players can do on New Year’s Day in a highly-anticipated rematch against the Buckeyes.

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ESPN predicts 49ers to finish 2024 schedule strong

ESPN shared scored predictions for the 2024 season’s final three weeks and it shows the 49ers finishing the season strong.

The San Francisco 49ers have just three games left in their 2024 season.

Sitting with a 6-8 overall record and a 1-4 mark in NFC West games, San Francisco is all but eliminated from the NFL playoffs.

Still, the 49ers want to end the 2024 season with some pride and they have the opportunity to finish with a winning record if they win out.

With games left at Miami (6-8), versus Detroit (12-2) and at Arizona (7-7), San Francisco has the opportunity to end the season with some momentum and set the table for a return to prominence in 2025.

Using simulations from its Football Power Index, ESPN forecasted every remaining game in the NFL’s regular season, including how the 49ers’ final three games would play out.

ESPN’s simulation forecasts San Francisco to close its final three weeks strong. Here’s what the simulation produced for scores in the 49ers’ final three games of 2024:

Week 16: San Francisco 24, Miami 14
Week 17: Detroit 38, San Francisco 31
Week 18: San Francisco 19, Arizona 10

While these results wouldn’t have the 49ers finishing with a winning record, it does have San Francisco closing with two more wins and a one-score loss against the projected No. 1 seed in the NFC in Detroit.

Among some of the other notable projections from ESPN’s FPI, the simulation forecasts the Los Angeles Rams to top the Seattle Seahawks in the season’s final week, 16-7, and capture the NFC West crown.

ESPN’s FPI projects the full seeding in the NFC to play out as follows: Detroit is the No. 1 seed, Philadelphia No. 2, Tampa Bay No. 3, Los Angeles No. 4, Minnesota No. 5, Green Bay No. 6 and Washington No. 7.

In the AFC, ESPN’s FPI projects the Kansas City Chiefs to capture the No. 1 seed, though Buffalo would close to within one game of Kansas City after a Chiefs loss against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17.

The full AFC Playoff picture looks like this per ESPN’s FPI simulation: Kansas City is the No. 1 seed, Buffalo No. 2, Pittsburgh No. 3, Houston No. 4, Baltimore No. 5, the Los Angeles Chargers No. 6 and Denver No. 7.

Kickoff for San Francisco at Miami in Week 16 is set for 1:25 p.m PT and the game will air on CBS.

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