Tag: ESPN Football Power Index

ESPN FPI Update: Ducks hold second-highest chance to make CFP in Pac-12

The Ducks’ percent chance of making the CFP continues to rise as the end of the regular season draws near.

It’s been a long season of intrigue and speculation when it comes to predicting which teams are going to make it into the College Football Playoff, and which squads are going to be left on the outside looking in. We’ve spent most of the season here at Ducks Wire checking in with the ESPN Football Power Index after every game, looking to see where the FPI slots Oregon in the national race, and what percent chance they give the Ducks to get into the playoff.

Finally, on Tuesday evening, we will get the clearest picture we’ve had yet, with the first official College Football Playoff rankings coming out on ESPN.

The standings aren’t final, of course, with four weeks left in the season, but it will give us the first clear sense of where the playoff committee sees the best teams in the nation standing.

While we wait for those rankings to come out, we wanted to check back in with the FPI to see how Oregon moved according to the computer after their win over the California Golden Bears. Spoiler alert, the numbers show that the Ducks have the second-best chance to make the CFP at this point in the season, only slightly behind the USC Trojans.

Here’s the remaining season outlook for Oregon according to the FPI:

ESPN FPI Update: Oregon’s chance of making playoff jumps after statement win vs. UCLA

The Ducks made a statement with their win over UCLA on Saturday. Their probability to make the CFP reflects that.

The Oregon Ducks’ statement win over the previously-ranked No. 10 UCLA Bruins on Saturday cemented what a lot of us out west already knew.

Dan Lanning’s squad means business, and should be considered among the best teams in the nation.

Yes, the first week of the season was an absolute debacle, but Oregon fans are willing to forget that ever happened if you are as well. What matters the most is that since that 49-3 loss to the defending champion Georgia Bulldogs, the Ducks have rattled off six-straight wins, scoring 40-plus points in all of them and gaining over 500 yards of offense in five of those victories.

It’s pretty clear that there are few offenses better than Oregon’s at the moment and few quarterbacks who are playing better football than Bo Nix. 

Each and every week we like to check back in with ESPN’s Football Power Index to see if Oregon’s win probability increased or decreased after the latest games. It also gives us a look at season-long projections, like the probability that Oregon wins the Pac-12, makes the College Football Playoff, or even wins the National Championship.

With the Ducks now ranked well within the top 10 in the nation, let’s take a look at their season outlook according to the FPI:

ESPN’s FPI predicts Texas’ last five games of the season

ESPN’s FPI gives Texas good odds to run the table.

No. 20 Texas has played itself right into the thick of the Big 12 title race through seven games on the season. The Longhorns are 5-2, riding high on a three-game conference winning streak.

The overall tone of the program is in a great spot under Steve Sarkisian in year two. The five wins match the entire total from a year ago.

The final stretch of the schedule is no easy task for Texas. Three of the Longhorns’ five remaining opponents sit inside the AP Poll Top 25 rankings. Road matchups against No. 11 Oklahoma State, No. 17 Kansas State and Kansas provide some significant challenges, along with hosting No. 8 TCU and Baylor.

ESPN’s Football Power Index favors Texas in each of its five games left on the 2022 schedule. Winning out would clinch Texas a Big 12 championship game birth for the first time since 2018.

Here is a game-by-game look at the odds ESPN’s FPI gives the Horns going forward.

ESPN FPI: Ducks hold sizable win probability over UCLA, also favored to beat Utah

Bigger than sizable win probabilities over UCLA and Utah, the Ducks got a big boost in percent-chance that they make the College Football Playoff.

The Oregon Ducks keep on rolling along.

With another impressive win on Saturday, this time against the Arizona Wildcats, it’s becoming clear that this version of Dan Lanning’s squad is much improved from the version that we saw in Week 1 against Georgia. The statistical models are baring that out, showing some new confidence in Oregon’s abilities going forward.

Each and every week we like to check back in with ESPN’s Football Power Index to see if Oregon’s win probability increased or decreased after the latest games. It also gives us a look at season-long projections, like probability that Oregon wins the Pac-12, makes the College Football Playoff, or even wins the National Championship.

Happy Monday, Duck fans. Oregon saw an increase across the board.

Not only does Oregon enter the UCLA game as sizable favorites, but they are also now projected to beat Utah, and saw their percent-chance to make the CFP rise by a decent margin. Check out where the FPI currently slots the Ducks:

ESPN FPI: Oregon sees win probability drop across the board after narrow victory vs. WSU

It appears that Oregon’s comeback win vs. WSU left room for some doubt. The Ducks saw their win probability drop almost unanimously for the upcoming 8 games.

The Oregon Ducks showed a lot of guts in a comeback win over the Washington State Cougars on the road last weekend. Facing a 12-point deficit with less than 5 minutes to play in the fourth quarter, QB Bo Nix led the team on a pair of scoring drives, and the defense got the necessary stop — including a game-sealing pick-six — and pulled out a thrilling victory on the road.

While we were impressed by the win, it appears that the computers saw it as cause for some doubt in Dan Lanning’s program. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Ducks’ win probability dropped almost unanimously across the board, with Oregon now a sizeable underdog to the Utah Utes after drawing nearly even with them a week ago in the FPI.

As always, we like to check in on ESPN’s Football Power Index after each game to see where the computers put Oregon, and if they have gained or lost confidence in the Ducks.

Here’s a look at the latest back of FPI predictions:

ESPN FPI Update: Ducks no longer underdog vs. Utah, favored in 8 of 9 remaining games

According to the ESPN Football Power Index, the Ducks’ arrow is pointing way up.

The nation is paying attention to the Oregon Ducks once again.

After a blowout loss in week 1 got everyone off of the scent for what Dan Lanning and his young coaching staff were trying to build in Eugene, a Week 3 blowout over No. 14 BYU — 41-20 — perked up quite a few ears.

With the win, Oregon proved that they belong in the top-25, and are a contender to make it not only to the Pac-12 Championship but also maybe sneak into a New Year’s Six bowl.

As always, we like to check in on ESPN’s Football Power Index after each game to see where the computers put Oregon, and if they have gained or lost confidence in the Ducks.

Here’s a look at the latest back of FPI predictions:

Which team in the Pac-12 is best set up for season-long success in 2022?

We put out our Pac-12 Power Rankings each week, but we wanted a more objective look. Here’s who ESPN thinks is the best team in the conference.

One thing that we do each week after the slate of games in the college football world has come to an end is put out our weekly edition of the Pac-12 Power Rankings. It is a way to assess how each team in the conference played in the days before and gives us a good look at where they stand among the other teams in the conference. So far, teams like Oregon State and Washington State have done well for themselves relative to their place ahead of the season, while schools like Colorado and Oregon have struggled early on.

We wanted to take another look at where the power balance stands in the Pac-12, though. While our rankings at Ducks Wire give a good sense of who is good and who is bad, they are inherently biased. We cover one of the Pac-12 teams each week, and no matter how hard we try to be completely objective, there are opinions that shape our views.

That is not the case with the ESPN Football Power Index, which is a tool that I often refer to throughout the football season. As a “measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season,” FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. ESPN also uses it to predict outcomes of games, and give a percent chance for how successful a team will be come season’s end.

It updates each and every week after the results are finalized, and we keep track of where it holds the Ducks in accordance with the best teams in the nation.

I wanted to see where it feels the best teams in the Pac-12 stand. Here are some interesting numbers that I gleaned from the FPI for each team:

  • Chance to Win Out
  • Chance to Make a Bowl Game
  • Chance to Win the Conference
  • Chance to Make the College Football Playoff
  • Chance to Make and Win the National Championship

With those things in mind, let’s see where ESPN ranks the teams in the Pac-12 from worst to best:

Where do the Oklahoma Sooners land in ESPN’s FPI after win over Kent State?

After a crazy weekend in college football, where did the Sooners rank in the latest ESPN Football Power Index?

The second week of the season provided upsets galore as several Sun Belt conference teams knocked off traditional powers on a day where seemingly no team was safe.

Texas A&M lost to Appalachian State while Marshall knocked off Notre Dame. Both teams entered the week inside the top 10 in the USA TODAY Sports AFCA Coaches Poll. They were huge upsets, all things considered.

Georgia Southern also pulled off an upset, at least in historical terms. Nebraska hasn’t been good for some time, and this loss was the culmination of several years of poor program development under Scott Frost.

The Texas Longhorns nearly pulled off what would have been the shock of the weekend in their 20-19 loss to Alabama. They had a lead in the final minutes before Bryce Young did Heisman winner things for Crimson Tide kicker Will Reichard to nail the game-winning field goal with less than 20 seconds to play in the game.

USC picked up a big win in Lincoln Riley’s Pac-12 debut, beating the Stanford Cardinal 41-28 behind a fantastic day from Caleb Williams.

With everything that transpired over the weekend, let’s take a look at how the latest ESPN Football Power Index looks and where the Oklahoma Sooners rank.

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete. – ESPN

An updated look at ESPN’s FPI rankings

Texas is up to No. 6 in the updated ESPN FPI rankings.

The college football season is officially off and running. Week 2 was action-packed with exciting play.

ESPN has updated its Football Power Index following the weekend’s slate of games.

We see lots of movement in the ESPN FPI compared to the initial rankings. Texas, Tennessee, USC and Mississippi State saw jumps in a positive direction.

The top three remained the same after Alabama narrowly took down Texas is an instant classic.

Here is a full look at the new ESPN FPI rankings heading into Week 3.

  1. Alabama Crimson Tide
  2. Ohio State Buckeyes
  3. Georgia Bulldogs
  4. Clemson Tigers
  5. Michigan Wolverines
  6. Texas Longhorns
  7. Tennessee Volunteers
  8. USC Trojans
  9. Mississippi State Bulldogs
  10. Utah Utes
  11. Michigan State Spartans
  12. LSU Tigers
  13. Penn State Nittany Lions
  14. Baylor Bears
  15. Oklahoma Sooners
  16. Ole Miss Rebels
  17. Miami Hurricanes
  18. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
  19. Cincinnati Bearcats
  20. Oklahoma State Cowboys
  21. Arkansas Razorbacks
  22. Kentucky Wildcats
  23. Minnesota Golden Gophers
  24. BYU Cougars
  25. Washington Huskies

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ESPN FPI Update: Ducks’ season outlook tanks after blowout loss to UGA

The Ducks are no longer favored to beat BYU or Oregon State. That’s a harsh reality check.

It’s pretty fair to say that the national perception of the Oregon Ducks took a brutal beating over the weekend.

While not many people expected the Ducks to go into Atlanta and beat the defending champion Georgia Bulldogs, most thought that they could at least be competitive on the same field.

They were not.

Losing 49-3, Oregon showed that they don’t quite yet belong on the same field with Georgia, and the perception now is that the Ducks have a long way to go before they can get back to competing for a championship in Eugene. That’s a tough start to the Dan Lanning era, but one that the team can grow from.

Every week, we will look at ESPN’s Football Power Index to get a feeling for how Oregon is expected to finish out the season, looking at expected winning percentage and chance at making the postseason.

After the first week, the numbers aren’t pretty.