Tag: ESPN Football Power Index

Oregon Ducks no longer favored to win Big Ten Championship, per ESPN FPI

A look at the Oregon Ducks’ remaining win probability in every game of the 2024 season, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.

Three weeks remain in the regular season, so the race for spots in conference championship weekend and the ensuing College Football Playoff is heating up.

The Oregon Ducks are in prime position to reach both. They are one of two undefeated teams in the Big Ten Conference, and the No. 1 team in the nation for the fourth consecutive week.

However, some don’t think the Ducks will make it out of their first season in the Big Ten as the conference champions.

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, Oregon has the second-best odds in the Big Ten to win the conference title, sitting behind the Ohio State Buckeyes. While no team has clinched its spot in the conference title game, the game between Ohio State and Indiana in Week 13 will likely send the winner to Indianapolis.

For those unfamiliar with ESPN’s FPI, it is an index that “relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.” In essence, it’s ESPN’s way of declaring the top teams in the nation, looking at their roster, their schedule, their percentage to win each game, and where that ultimately lands them after the season comes to an end.

In short, it looks at Oregon’s 2024 schedule and predicts what percentage the Ducks have to win each game. Throughout the year, the numbers change based on past performance, injuries, and other variables. Let’s take a look at what the numbers say following Week 11:

Oregon at Wisconsin Badgers — Week 12

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 75.6%

Previous FPI Win %: 76.2%

Oregon vs. Washington Huskies — Week 14

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 89.3%

Previous FPI Win %: 87.9%

Oregon Ducks Overall Season Outlook

Percent Chance to Win Out: 26.8%

Previous Odds: 24.7%

Percent Chance to Win Conference: 37.8%
(Ohio State Conference Title Odds: 43.5%)

Previous Odds: 35.1%

Percent Chance to Make College Football Playoff: 95.3%

Previous Odds: 95.6%

Percent Chance to Make National Championship: 19.3%

Previous Odds: 20.0%

Percent Chance to Win National Championship: 7.8%

Previous Odds: 8.5%

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ESPN power rankings greatly differ from polls, does it for Notre Dame?

Did ESPN get this right?

While both the US LBM Coaches Poll has Notre Dame at No. 8 and the AP Poll has the Irish at No. 10, it greatly differs from how ESPN sees the field stacking up.

The first College Football Playoff rankings will be announced on Tuesday, but ESPN’s Football Power Index has a much different look at the teams. The Oregon Ducks are No. 1 in both polls, but the FPI has them as the No. 7 team, with the Texas Longhorns as the top team.

Ohio State is followed by them, which is a bit different than the polls who have them at No. 3. This is where it gets interesting, as the FPI has the Alabama Crimson Tide at its No. 3 team, Georgia as No. 4 and Notre Dame as No. 5. The discrepancy is with the Tide, as the polls have them ranked much lower than ESPN.

It’s a start contrast from the polls, but it has the majority of the same teams at the top of the list. What’s interesting is that they no longer have projections for the rest of the year, as now we are left to guess who the season will play out.

While this is great to see the Irish ranked above other teams the poll have them lower than, the most important rankings, the CFP, will tell the real story on Tuesday.

Notre Dame remains in the AP Top 10 for Week 10.
Oct 26, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish safety Rod Heard II (2) celebrates after recovering a fumble during the second half against the Navy Midshipmen at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

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ESPN has Notre Dame ranked higher than both polls in latest power rankings

That’s more like it

While the US LBM Coaches Poll and the AP Poll both have Notre Dame football as it’s No. 8 team, ESPN didn’t quite agree with either of them.

In its latest update to their Football Power Rankings, the Irish came in as ESPN’s No. 5 overall team, up two spots from last week. While on an off week, Notre Dame moved up a spot, but after dismantling Navy this past weekend, it made a bigger move.

The Irish are behind Texas, Ohio State, Alabama, and Georgia, as they have the top percentage of the top-5 to win its remaining games with 49.4%. Unfortunately, Notre Dame does have the second lowest mark at making the [autotag]College Football Playoff[/autotag] with 59.6%

What’s interesting is that Notre Dame chances to make the CFP Championship Game have steadily risen the last few weeks, hitting 11.6% this week with a 6.2% chance to win it all. This is much different than a few weeks ago when it was just 8.6% to make it and 4.1% to bring the title back to South Bend.

Oct 26, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Jeremiyah Love (4) celebrates a rushing a touchdown with teammates during the first half against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

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ESPN’s lastest College Football Playoff projections are extremely favorable for Notre Dame

The Irish are in a great position after the unofficial midway point of the season according to ESPN

With Notre Dame football returning this past weekend, and a blowout home victory over Stanford, many have been taking a different tune about the Irish.

While the US LBM Coaches Poll moved Notre Dame up, the AP Poll inexplicably moved them down. ESPN’s Football Power Index agreed with the coaches after Week 7’s action, as they moved up the Irish from No. 7 last week, to No. 6 this week ahead of undefeated teams like Oregon, Penn State and Miami.

It’s very interesting to see Notre Dame ahead of those three team with a loss, but the metrics clearly favor the Irish over all of them. ESPN also believes that the chances you see the Blue and Gold in the [autotag]College Football Playoff[/autotag] are better than 50/50, as Notre Dame rose from a projected 48.4% last week to 57.4% this week.

A significant jump, as just seven other teams have better odds than Notre Dame. The yo-yo with the FPI and the Irish’s winning out percentage once again rose over 30% to 34.2% after falling to 26.6% last week.

Oct 12, 2024; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish wide receiver Jayden Thomas (83) celebrates after a catch for a touchdown in the second quarter against the Stanford Cardinal at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

ESPN also had a rise in Notre Dame’s chances to win it all, as it gives them an 8.6% chance to make the CFP title game and 4.1% to come out victorious. Both of those percentages were increases from last week’s FPI projections.

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Movement around Notre Dame, but the Irish remain stagnant in updated ESPN power rankings

The Irish are still in a good spot

With the Notre Dame Fighting Irish football team off this past weekend, there wasn’t any extra data to dive into.

For that exact reason, the Irish stayed in the same spot as they had last week in ESPN’s Football Power Index after a wild Week 6 in college football. There was plenty of movement around Notre Dame, as Alabama, Tennessee, and Penn State moved down, while Ohio State, Ole Miss and Oregon moved up.

As for the advanced stats for the Irish, moved up slightly in the race to make the College Football Playoff, going from 46.1% last week to 48.4% this week. The changes the PFI gives Notre Dame to win out dropped, from 30.5% to 26.6%, which no longer is the best percentage in the nation, the Buckeyes now hold that title.

The championship odds are still low, with just a 5.6% chance to make the CFP title game and just a 2.4% chance to win.

Five keys for Notre Dame to come out victorious against Louisville
Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

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Notre Dame moves up multiple spots after Louisville win in ESPN Football Power Index

These projections are very favorable for the Irish

It seems as if ESPN’s computer projection systems are very high on Notre Dame football following its Week 5 31-24 victory over the Louisville Cardinals.

The Irish were ESPN’s Football Power Index’s No. 9 team heading into this past weekend, and following the win, moved up two places to No. 7. This is fairly significant, as their system is a great predictor of future game outcomes.

Notre Dame gets back to the spot they were after Week 3, but there is another significant data point that ESPN points out, its chances at running the table for the rest of the regular season. After dropping to a 22% chance to win the remainder of their games last week, it jumped to 30.5% this week, the highest number in the nation.

There was an even bigger jump in the projections regarding the Irish making the [autotag]College Football Playoff[/autotag]. Last week, the FPI gave Notre Dame a 36.3%, which made a jump of almost 10-percentage points to 46.1%.

With a bye week this coming weekend, Notre Dame will have an opportunity to get healthy for its stretch run to finish off the season.

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Notre Dame drops in ESPN’s updated Football Power Index after Week 4

No surprise here

While Notre Dame football escaped with a win at home against Miami (OH), ESPN did not like what it saw from the Irish on Saturday afternoon.

In its latest update to their Football Power Index, Notre Dame dropped two spots from No. 7 to No. 9. It was an opposite movement from last weekend, where the Irish made a move north a few spots.

After not dominating an outmatched MAC team, it makes sense that Notre Dame would drop a bit. The projection lowered the Irish’s chances of winning out from 22.8% last week to 22% this week, not much of a drop but still somewhat significant.

Like their chances of winning out, the percentage to make the [autotag]College Football Playoff[/autotag] fell slightly as well, going from 37.2% last week to 36.3% this week. Another small move the wrong way, as it makes sense following the less than stellar performance against Miami (OH).

The door isn’t necessarily closed to make the CFP, but ask Joel Klatt pointed out, it’s going to be difficult for the Irish to make the field of 12 without winning out.

Sep 21, 2024; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish defensive lineman Junior Tuihalamaka (44) celebrates after an interception in the first quarter against the Miami Redhawks at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

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Notre Dame drops in ESPN’s Football Power Index, but not as far as you’d think

It could have been worse for the Irish

It was not a Saturday for remember for Notre Dame football, as they once again fell at home to an unranked opponent, losing to Northern Illinois 16-14.

The loss was one of the more stunning results of Week 2, and while we expect the Irish to make a fall in the polls when they come out, ESPN’s Football Power Rankings still think highly of Marcus Freeman’s team after the loss.

Notre Dame was previously ranked as their No. 6, and moved down just four spots to No. 10 after the upset. Looking ahead at the Irish’s remaining schedule, they have two teams that are going to be difficult according to their rankings, USC and Louisville.

https://twitter.com/BlakeMunroeOTF/status/1832783753845891136

While many believe that the Irish may be out of the College Football Playoff race, the FPI still gives them a 22.6% chance to make the field of 12. The win-loss projection took a hit, as they now have Notre Dame closer to 9-3 than last week.

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Could Oklahoma be better in 2024 and finish with a worse record?

The Tennessean’s Blake Toppmeyer likes what Brent Venables is building in Norman but isn’t sure they’ll win as many games as they did in 2023.

The Oklahoma Sooners are wading into new territory with their move to the SEC. The schedule is full of teams projected to be in the top 15 when the initial polls come out in August.

It’s a brave new world.

[autotag]Brent Venables[/autotag] has his squad ready to go into the SEC and compete. There’s no doubt that they’re a better team than they were a year ago this time. Oklahoma added to a unit that showed big improvement last season. And with arguably an upgrade at quarterback, the Sooners look poised to show off their improved roster in 2024.

But even if they’re improved, The Tennessean’s Blake Toppmeyer believes they may not live up to their No. 8 spot in the ESPN Football Power Index. As Toppmeyer goes through the SEC, he looked to project how each SEC team would perform relative to the ESPN FPI. For Oklahoma, he believes they could be better but end up with a worse record.

Oklahoma must face Texas, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Missouri, Alabama and LSU. Talk about a rude welcome to the SEC. The Sooners could have a better team than last season (when they went 10-3) and still finish with a worse record. – Toppmeyer, The Tennessean

Oklahoma will face as many as six teams that will be ranked in the top 25, and four to five of those could be top 15.

The Sooners defense will be good enough to give Oklahoma’s offense an opportunity to find their sea legs in 2024. For the first time in a long time, Oklahoma’s offense won’t have to be perfect all four quarters and for 12 or more games for the Sooners to win.

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Are the Oklahoma Sooners overvalued in the ESPN Football Power Index?

One ESPN analyst believes the Oklahoma Sooners are overvalued in the updated ESPN Football Power Index.

The Oklahoma Sooners are one of the more intriguing teams heading into the 2024 college football season. They have a talented roster, led by a defense that has a lot of experience coming back for Oklahoma’s first foray into the SEC.

[autotag]Danny Stutsman[/autotag], [autotag]Billy Bowman[/autotag], [autotag]Ethan Downs[/autotag], and [autotag]Woodi Washington[/autotag] lead the way for a defense that made substantial improvement in year two under [autotag]Brent Venables[/autotag].

Offensively, there’s a lot of talent too. But at arguably the most critical positions, quarterback and offensive line, the Sooners are facing turnover. [autotag]Jackson Arnold[/autotag] is as talented a quarterback as you’ll find in the country, but he has only one start under his belt.

Oklahoma generally has its offensive line together, so that typically isn’t a long-term concern, but they are replacing the five guys who started the most games for them in 2023. However, [autotag]Bill Bedenbaugh[/autotag] did a fantastic job bringing in experience to supplement his young blue chippers along the offensive line. But they haven’t worked together in a game situation. So there’s reason to be skeptical.

Throw in a schedule that will give Oklahoma all it can handle in 2024 and it’s understandable why Adam Rittenberg of ESPN might be a bit skeptical of the Oklahoma Sooners No. 8 ranking in the updated ESPN Football Power Index for the 2024 season. Rittenberg believes the Sooners are one of the overvalued teams at this point in 2024.

Oklahoma at No. 8 wouldn’t concern me as much if the Sooners were staying in the Big 12, rather than moving to the SEC. The combination of a young quarterback ([autotag]Jackson Arnold[/autotag]), two new primary coordinators (Seth Littrell and [autotag]Zac Alley[/autotag]), a defense that hasn’t really found its way under coach [autotag]Brent Venables[/autotag] and a schedule that features Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, Tennessee and Missouri, in addition to rival Texas, sets off a few alarm bells. Oklahoma has done well in the portal and returns some star power on defense, but I don’t see a top-10 finish this year in Norman. – Rittenberg, ESPN

Turnover hit Oklahoma in a big way this offseason. But it’s the University of Oklahoma and the depth chart has improved drastically since Venables took over in Norman. They have a defense that is set up to help them win games in 2024 and an offense that will continue to score a ton of points.

The offensive line will come together and Oklahoma features arguably the best collection of wide receivers in the nation. Time will tell if Rittenberg is right, but there’s reason to be optimistic that the Sooners are one of the 10 best teams in the nation for 2024.

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