ESPN FPI predicts one-sided Peach Bowl CFP quarterfinal between Texas and Arizona State

ESPN’s super computers say the CFP quarterfinal between Texas and Arizona State in the Peach Bowl will be very one-sided.

The Arizona State Sun Devils have gained the respect of the college football world. By winning the new-look expanded Big 12 in emphatic fashion, ASU rolls into the CFP quarterfinals red-hot and well-rested.

But the ESPN super computers are apparently unimpressed with the Sun Devils, at least when compared to SEC runner-up Texas.

Led by transfer quarterback Sam Leavitt from Michigan State and transfer running back Cam Skattebo from Sacramento State, ASU has used a prolific offense to beat four ranked teams in 2024 and peak at the end of the season.

Leavitt has thrown for 2,663 yards and 24 touchdowns with just five interceptions. He is the fiery leader of the Sun Devils. Skattebo has set ASU records with 22 total TDs and 19 rushing touchdowns. He is 75 short of becoming the all-time Arizona State rushing leader.

Still, Texas is a heavy favorite in the Peach Bowl at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium. UT is a 12.5 point favorite. ESPN’s FPI Matchup Predictor agrees. The index powered by ESPN Analytics says Texas has a 79.7% chance of beating ASU and advancing to the college football playoff semifinals at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

 

Oregon Ducks’ perfect 13-0 highlights major flaw in ESPN FPI ratings

The Oregon Ducks final standings in the ESPN Football Power Index highlight a broken and flawed ratings system.

The Oregon Ducks are the best team in the nation. Full stop.

After 15 weeks of football, conference championship games, and numerous iterations of the College Football Playoff rankings, there is one team still standing with an undefeated, 13-0 record, and a conference championship to show for it.

That’s the Oregon Ducks. They’re the No. 1 overall seed in the final CFP rankings, and will likely be favored in every game from here until the end of the season. But don’t tell that to ESPN and their Football Power Index.

According to the FPI, Oregon is — at best — the sixth-best team in the nation. Not better than Texas; not better than Notre Dame; not better than Ohio State, whom they beat in an actual game of football that was played this year.

Per the ESPN FPI, Oregon is worse than all of those teams. They’re also worse than a three-loss Alabama team, and a two-loss Georgia team, in case you were wondering.

Want to talk about a broken system? Look no further.

Going into the Big Ten Championship Game against the Penn State Nittany Lions, the Ducks were 3.5-point favorites according to sportsbooks across the nation. Not according to ESPN, though. The FPI gave James Franklin’s team a 51% chance to win the game. How’d that work out? The Ducks were victorious, 45-37.

So why do we keep looking at the FPI each week if the numbers are clearly broken? That’s a good question. I don’t have an answer for you at this point other than “force of habit” or maybe “to see how hilariously wrong the can get week after week.”

Whatever it may be, let’s take a look at this latest batch of numbers that the FPI is churning out, with a close look at Oregon’s percent chance of winning the national championship (with the knowledge that the Ducks are currently the betting favorite to win it all, per BetMGM.)   

Oregon Ducks Overall Season Outlook

Percent Chance to Make National Championship:

  1. Ohio State Buckeyes — 27.0%
  2. Georgia Bulldogs — 26.9%
  3. Oregon Ducks — 26.9% (Previously 21.8%)
  4. Texas Longhorns — 26.8%
  5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish — 25.9%

Percent Chance to Win National Championship:

  1. Texas Longhorns — 16.2%
  2. Ohio State Buckeyes — 15.6%
  3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish — 14.9%
  4. Georgia Bulldogs — 14.4%
  5. Oregon Ducks — 11.4% (Previously 9.0%)
  6. Tennessee Volunteers — 7.0%

Make of the numbers from ESPN what you will, and don’t be shy about keeping mental track of how they view the Ducks over the next month. I’ll be watching closely, knowing very well that this may be the last season that I follow the FPI for quite a while. [lawrence-auto-related count=3]

Oregon Ducks’ spot in ESPN FPI sees shake-up after chaotic Week 13

A look at the Oregon Ducks’ remaining win probability in every game of the 2024 season, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.

The Week 13 action of college football was as crazy as we’ve seen all year, with seven top-25 teams suffering a brutal loss, and four of those teams getting upset by undefeated teams. 

Fortunately for Oregon fans, the Ducks were on a bye after playing a grueling stretch of eight consecutive games against conference opponents. So while some of the nation’s best teams were fighting for their College Football Playoff lives, Dan Lanning and his guys were taking the time to reset, recover, and prepare for a stretch run ahead. 

Going forward, the Ducks have a crucial rivalry game against the Washington Huskies this week in Eugene, followed by a trip to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship game where they will play either the Ohio State Buckeyes, Penn State Nittany Lions, or Indiana Hoosiers. 

While the Ducks technically need a win next week to clinch a spot in the College Football Playoff, fans can feel pretty good about their chances of getting in, with ESPN’s Football Power Index giving Oregon the best odds in the nation to play the CFP, at 99.8%. 

For those unfamiliar with ESPN’s FPI, it is an index that “relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.” In essence, it’s ESPN’s way of declaring the top teams in the nation, looking at their roster, their schedule, their percentage to win each game, and where that ultimately lands them after the season comes to an end.

In short, it looks at Oregon’s 2024 schedule and predicts what percentage the Ducks have to win each game, and make it into the postseason and beyond. Throughout the year, the numbers change based on past performance, injuries, and other variables. Let’s take a look at what the numbers say following Week 13:

Oregon vs. Washington Huskies — Week 14

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 88.8%

Previous FPI Win %: 88.1%

Oregon Ducks Overall Season Outlook

Percent Chance to Win Out: 31.1%

Previous Odds: 33.8%

Percent Chance to Win Conference: 38.0%
(Ohio State Conference Title Odds: 46.2%)

Previous Odds: 38.0%

Percent Chance to Make College Football Playoff: 99.8%

Previous Odds: 99.6%

Percent Chance to Make National Championship: 18.5%

Previous Odds: 19.2%

Percent Chance to Win National Championship: 7.5%

Previous Odds: 7.3%

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Oregon Ducks no longer favored to win Big Ten Championship, per ESPN FPI

A look at the Oregon Ducks’ remaining win probability in every game of the 2024 season, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.

Three weeks remain in the regular season, so the race for spots in conference championship weekend and the ensuing College Football Playoff is heating up.

The Oregon Ducks are in prime position to reach both. They are one of two undefeated teams in the Big Ten Conference, and the No. 1 team in the nation for the fourth consecutive week.

However, some don’t think the Ducks will make it out of their first season in the Big Ten as the conference champions.

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, Oregon has the second-best odds in the Big Ten to win the conference title, sitting behind the Ohio State Buckeyes. While no team has clinched its spot in the conference title game, the game between Ohio State and Indiana in Week 13 will likely send the winner to Indianapolis.

For those unfamiliar with ESPN’s FPI, it is an index that “relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.” In essence, it’s ESPN’s way of declaring the top teams in the nation, looking at their roster, their schedule, their percentage to win each game, and where that ultimately lands them after the season comes to an end.

In short, it looks at Oregon’s 2024 schedule and predicts what percentage the Ducks have to win each game. Throughout the year, the numbers change based on past performance, injuries, and other variables. Let’s take a look at what the numbers say following Week 11:

Oregon at Wisconsin Badgers — Week 12

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 75.6%

Previous FPI Win %: 76.2%

Oregon vs. Washington Huskies — Week 14

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 89.3%

Previous FPI Win %: 87.9%

Oregon Ducks Overall Season Outlook

Percent Chance to Win Out: 26.8%

Previous Odds: 24.7%

Percent Chance to Win Conference: 37.8%
(Ohio State Conference Title Odds: 43.5%)

Previous Odds: 35.1%

Percent Chance to Make College Football Playoff: 95.3%

Previous Odds: 95.6%

Percent Chance to Make National Championship: 19.3%

Previous Odds: 20.0%

Percent Chance to Win National Championship: 7.8%

Previous Odds: 8.5%

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ESPN power rankings greatly differ from polls, does it for Notre Dame?

Did ESPN get this right?

While both the US LBM Coaches Poll has Notre Dame at No. 8 and the AP Poll has the Irish at No. 10, it greatly differs from how ESPN sees the field stacking up.

The first College Football Playoff rankings will be announced on Tuesday, but ESPN’s Football Power Index has a much different look at the teams. The Oregon Ducks are No. 1 in both polls, but the FPI has them as the No. 7 team, with the Texas Longhorns as the top team.

Ohio State is followed by them, which is a bit different than the polls who have them at No. 3. This is where it gets interesting, as the FPI has the Alabama Crimson Tide at its No. 3 team, Georgia as No. 4 and Notre Dame as No. 5. The discrepancy is with the Tide, as the polls have them ranked much lower than ESPN.

It’s a start contrast from the polls, but it has the majority of the same teams at the top of the list. What’s interesting is that they no longer have projections for the rest of the year, as now we are left to guess who the season will play out.

While this is great to see the Irish ranked above other teams the poll have them lower than, the most important rankings, the CFP, will tell the real story on Tuesday.

Notre Dame remains in the AP Top 10 for Week 10.
Oct 26, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish safety Rod Heard II (2) celebrates after recovering a fumble during the second half against the Navy Midshipmen at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

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ESPN has Notre Dame ranked higher than both polls in latest power rankings

That’s more like it

While the US LBM Coaches Poll and the AP Poll both have Notre Dame football as it’s No. 8 team, ESPN didn’t quite agree with either of them.

In its latest update to their Football Power Rankings, the Irish came in as ESPN’s No. 5 overall team, up two spots from last week. While on an off week, Notre Dame moved up a spot, but after dismantling Navy this past weekend, it made a bigger move.

The Irish are behind Texas, Ohio State, Alabama, and Georgia, as they have the top percentage of the top-5 to win its remaining games with 49.4%. Unfortunately, Notre Dame does have the second lowest mark at making the [autotag]College Football Playoff[/autotag] with 59.6%

What’s interesting is that Notre Dame chances to make the CFP Championship Game have steadily risen the last few weeks, hitting 11.6% this week with a 6.2% chance to win it all. This is much different than a few weeks ago when it was just 8.6% to make it and 4.1% to bring the title back to South Bend.

Oct 26, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Jeremiyah Love (4) celebrates a rushing a touchdown with teammates during the first half against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

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ESPN’s lastest College Football Playoff projections are extremely favorable for Notre Dame

The Irish are in a great position after the unofficial midway point of the season according to ESPN

With Notre Dame football returning this past weekend, and a blowout home victory over Stanford, many have been taking a different tune about the Irish.

While the US LBM Coaches Poll moved Notre Dame up, the AP Poll inexplicably moved them down. ESPN’s Football Power Index agreed with the coaches after Week 7’s action, as they moved up the Irish from No. 7 last week, to No. 6 this week ahead of undefeated teams like Oregon, Penn State and Miami.

It’s very interesting to see Notre Dame ahead of those three team with a loss, but the metrics clearly favor the Irish over all of them. ESPN also believes that the chances you see the Blue and Gold in the [autotag]College Football Playoff[/autotag] are better than 50/50, as Notre Dame rose from a projected 48.4% last week to 57.4% this week.

A significant jump, as just seven other teams have better odds than Notre Dame. The yo-yo with the FPI and the Irish’s winning out percentage once again rose over 30% to 34.2% after falling to 26.6% last week.

Oct 12, 2024; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish wide receiver Jayden Thomas (83) celebrates after a catch for a touchdown in the second quarter against the Stanford Cardinal at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

ESPN also had a rise in Notre Dame’s chances to win it all, as it gives them an 8.6% chance to make the CFP title game and 4.1% to come out victorious. Both of those percentages were increases from last week’s FPI projections.

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Movement around Notre Dame, but the Irish remain stagnant in updated ESPN power rankings

The Irish are still in a good spot

With the Notre Dame Fighting Irish football team off this past weekend, there wasn’t any extra data to dive into.

For that exact reason, the Irish stayed in the same spot as they had last week in ESPN’s Football Power Index after a wild Week 6 in college football. There was plenty of movement around Notre Dame, as Alabama, Tennessee, and Penn State moved down, while Ohio State, Ole Miss and Oregon moved up.

As for the advanced stats for the Irish, moved up slightly in the race to make the College Football Playoff, going from 46.1% last week to 48.4% this week. The changes the PFI gives Notre Dame to win out dropped, from 30.5% to 26.6%, which no longer is the best percentage in the nation, the Buckeyes now hold that title.

The championship odds are still low, with just a 5.6% chance to make the CFP title game and just a 2.4% chance to win.

Five keys for Notre Dame to come out victorious against Louisville
Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

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Notre Dame moves up multiple spots after Louisville win in ESPN Football Power Index

These projections are very favorable for the Irish

It seems as if ESPN’s computer projection systems are very high on Notre Dame football following its Week 5 31-24 victory over the Louisville Cardinals.

The Irish were ESPN’s Football Power Index’s No. 9 team heading into this past weekend, and following the win, moved up two places to No. 7. This is fairly significant, as their system is a great predictor of future game outcomes.

Notre Dame gets back to the spot they were after Week 3, but there is another significant data point that ESPN points out, its chances at running the table for the rest of the regular season. After dropping to a 22% chance to win the remainder of their games last week, it jumped to 30.5% this week, the highest number in the nation.

There was an even bigger jump in the projections regarding the Irish making the [autotag]College Football Playoff[/autotag]. Last week, the FPI gave Notre Dame a 36.3%, which made a jump of almost 10-percentage points to 46.1%.

With a bye week this coming weekend, Notre Dame will have an opportunity to get healthy for its stretch run to finish off the season.

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Notre Dame drops in ESPN’s updated Football Power Index after Week 4

No surprise here

While Notre Dame football escaped with a win at home against Miami (OH), ESPN did not like what it saw from the Irish on Saturday afternoon.

In its latest update to their Football Power Index, Notre Dame dropped two spots from No. 7 to No. 9. It was an opposite movement from last weekend, where the Irish made a move north a few spots.

After not dominating an outmatched MAC team, it makes sense that Notre Dame would drop a bit. The projection lowered the Irish’s chances of winning out from 22.8% last week to 22% this week, not much of a drop but still somewhat significant.

Like their chances of winning out, the percentage to make the [autotag]College Football Playoff[/autotag] fell slightly as well, going from 37.2% last week to 36.3% this week. Another small move the wrong way, as it makes sense following the less than stellar performance against Miami (OH).

The door isn’t necessarily closed to make the CFP, but ask Joel Klatt pointed out, it’s going to be difficult for the Irish to make the field of 12 without winning out.

Sep 21, 2024; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish defensive lineman Junior Tuihalamaka (44) celebrates after an interception in the first quarter against the Miami Redhawks at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

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