Will a change of scenery help Jerry Jeudy’s fantasy prospects?

Does this former Bronco have a shot at living up to his potential in Cleveland?

Few fantasy players are more polarizing than Cleveland Browns wide receiver Jerry Jeudy. The 15th overall pick in the 2020 draft, expectations were high that Jeudy’s college success at Alabama would translate to the Broncos offense. Unfortunately for him (and those who drafted him) it hasn’t worked out that way.

In four seasons with the Broncos he never had a 1,000-yard season and finished three seasons with fewer than 55 receptions and three or fewer touchdowns. Those numbers are what you would expect from a No. 3 receiver in an NFL offense, not a WR1. The closest he ever came to putting up numbers worthy of being in weekly lineup consideration was in 2022 when he caught 67 passes for 972 yards and six touchdowns.

Denver’s disenchantment with Jeudy’s lack of high-end production ended this spring when the Broncos traded him to the Browns for a pair of late-round draft picks. Reviews on the trade are mixed. While he hasn’t proved he can be a star receiver in the NFL, Cleveland gave him a three-year, $58 million extension following the trade.

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Jeudy comes to an offense loaded with skill position talent with running backs Nick Chubb (knee) and Jerome Ford, wide receivers Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore and tight end David Njoku. That represents a lot of competition for passes and the biggest issue surrounds the wheelman of the offense, quarterback Deshaun Watson.

One of the most electrifying quarterbacks in the league when he was in Houston, Watson missed all of the 2021 season with legal issues and hasn’t lived up to his massive contract with the Browns (five years, $230 million fully guaranteed). In two seasons in Cleveland, Watson has played in just 12 games, averaging 185 passing yards with 14 touchdowns and nine interceptions. When evaluating any receiver, his quarterback has to factor into the equation, and there are many more questions than answers with Watson heading into Year 3 of his Cleveland deal.

Fantasy football outlook

Too many red flags pop up in the marriage between Jeudy and the Browns. Jeudy has been a career disappointment, and he’s coming into an offense that boasts considerable competition for targets. The biggest concern is building a rapport with Watson, which won’t come as easily as it might seem.

In November, Watson had surgery to repair a fractured right shoulder socket, which can be a career-ending injury for a quarterback. The Browns coaching and medical staffs are going to take their time bringing Watson back, which hurts Jeudy more than the other receivers that Watson has already worked with and developed timing. Getting meaningful reps between a quarterback and receivers is critical to success, and Jeudy isn’t going to get enough of that until the regular season begins, which should drop his value markedly.

At best, Jeudy is a WR5 in a 12-manager league because of the questions surrounding his arrival to Cleveland. Anywhere before No. 5 is taking too big a gamble. However, at WR5 the risk is minimized and if he washes out there wasn’t a significant investment made. Judy has been a disappointment thus far in his career, but he still has the talent to turn things around. By the time WR5 types are coming off the board, the potential reward will finally meet up with the risk.

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 13

After taking flight last week, will this young Jet crash and burn in Week 13?

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 13

Tracking my predictions: 3-8-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing

2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1

I’ve made some close calls this year that didn’t break in my favor, and I have whiffed on a few others, but the projection of Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce last week was off by a country mile. As written in the piece, the massive risk was abundantly clear, but I can’t say a two-target shutout was even 5 percent likely in my mind.

As I’ve stated more than once, being wrong isn’t what wears on me as much as the idea someone may have wasted a valuable lineup spot on such a blown call. The only redeeming factor here is all 32 teams played last week, which diminished the need for anyone to gamble on Pierce.

With that disaster behind us, this week’s recommendation isn’t too far off in terms of being a low-floor, moderate-ceiling play for those looking to lean into a risk-reward decision.

New York Jets WR Elijah Moore at Minnesota Vikings

Last week, the Jets made the bold decision to move on from 2020 first-round pick Zach Wilson, and subsequent reports confirm he’s done in New York. This led to naming Mike White the starter, a move that proved to be correct after he tossed three touchdowns and 315 yards worth of completions.

Two of those throws went to second-year receiver Elijah Moore, whose season has been entirely forgettable after being demoted and ultimately not granted his trade request. The pair of targets went for 64 yards and a score, his only of the year, and Moore reminded the world what he is capable of as a playmaker.

Interestingly — this is part of the risk involved — last week’s two-look performance was the second-lowest target count of his prior seven games with a combination of Joe Flacco and Wilson. He becomes a much safer play if White delivers closer to the seven targets Moore averaged through the first three weeks with Flacco, but there’s always the big-play nature to fall back on. Much like with Pierce, this one isn’t for the faint of heart, though there’s quite a bit to like about Moore’s situation.

Last year, prior to getting injured in Week 9, White sent a 19-yard TD strike Moore’s way. In White’s breakout performance vs. Cincinnati the previous week, the then-rookie caught all six targets for 67 yards.

As the fourth-weakest PPR unit vs. the position, Minnesota has been owned by wideouts in 2022, especially over the last five games. Since Week 7, the ranking jumps to No. 2 on the strength of having allowed six of the nine total TDs to the position in that time. The per-game number of fantasy points allowed is 18.6 percent greater than the rest of the league, but that figure basically doubled in the most recent five contests. Sixteen receivers have posted at least 10 PPR points against the Vikings this year, and 11 of the performances were good for 15 or more.

Facing Minnesota also presents the opportunity for a potential shootout scenario, or at least garbage-time points from the Jets. New York has been formidable vs. the pass all year, though the Vikings have plenty of ways to attack, and this factor adds a little more incentive to gambling on Moore. As mentioned, he’s extremely hazardous, so judge how much risk you’re willing to assume from the flex spot.

My projection: 6 targets, 5 receptions, 68 yards, 1 TD (17.8 PPR fantasy points)

Fantasy football preview: WR Elijah Moore, Jets

Can he capitalize as a sophomore on a promising rookie season?

A second-round pick last year, New York Jets wide receiver Elijah Moore appeared in 11 of the team’s first 12 games before suffering a quad injury on Dec. 5 that landed him on the Reserve/Injured list and cost him the final five games of the season. Despite missing more than a third of the season, Moore led the club in targets (77), receiving yards (538), and touchdowns (five), and he also finished third in receptions (43).

Given the offseason to heal up, Moore is fully healthy now and a central figure in what looks like a potentially dangerous receiving corps that also features first-round pick Garrett Wilson, and veteran Corey Davis, whose first season in Gotham was marred by injuries — he put up a 34-492-2 line in nine games after spending his first four years with the Tennessee Titans. Former second-rounder Denzel Mims and Braxton Berrios, who finished second with 46 catches in 2021, round out the group.

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While that’s a solid unit on paper, there are still questions aplenty about second-year quarterback Zach Wilson (knee), who struggled as a rookie and recently underwent arthroscopic knee surgery that could keep him out of Week 1 and maybe even beyond. Veteran Joe Flacco is a capable backup to be sure, but the team invested the No. 2 overall pick on Wilson, and they need him to make significant strides after he threw just nine touchdown passes a year ago.

Despite some uncertainty about the quality of play at the quarterback position, there’s a lot to like about Moore’s potential this season. Coming out of Ole Miss, the 22-year-old had the right set of skills for a young QB, namely good hands, the ability to get open quickly, and the speed to make things happen after the catch — it’s why he averaged seven targets per game. He’ll operate out of the slot again in 2022 with Davis and Wilson penciled in on the outside.

Fantasy football outlook

Assuming he stays healthy, Moore is a good bet to again lead the Jets’ receivers in multiple categories as his role to work close to the line of scrimmage should earn him plenty of opportunities to make plays. While he’s best suited as a midrange or even low-end WR3, there’s some legitimate upside here, and Moore could make a push toward WR2 territory this season.

Fantasy football team previews: AFC East

Take a fantasy football spin around the AFC East.

The 2022 fantasy football draft season is starting to heat up now that we’ve gone through the height of free agency and all of the chosen rookies have been assigned to their professional home cities.

The landscape has changed a great deal for many franchises after a whirlwind offseason, and our divisional preview series will help you stay on top of all of the changes to date.

AFC divisional previews

East | North | South | West

NFC divisional previews

East | North | South | West