Tag: Divisional Round gambling

For my money, with the potential exception of the first two days of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, there is no greater two days in sports than the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. Six teams had to earn their way there. The two best teams are rested and surrounded by friends waiting for somebody to come to their house trying to take it away from them.

This week’s picks mix it up, taking a game to go Over, one to go Under, both teams rested from their bye making a statement, and an underdog looking to continue its January dominance.

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook

There is no better time in the NFL than the Divisional Round of the playoffs. The two top dogs are waiting. Everyone else earned their way to this spot. Let’s go! In the Wild Card Round, typically a couple underdog teams make it to next round. In the Divisional Round, there is always one. The question is which one? The NFL rarely goes all-chalk.

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook

Houston Texans (+310) at Baltimore Ravens (-400)

The Ravens are understandably big favorites (9 points at -110 for both teams). They’re well rested having laid down in Week 18 to the Pittsburgh Steelers. When they’ve played all their guys, Baltimore won its last six games and 10 of the last 11. The Texans are great story, but the Ravens are assassins. They beat the Texans by 16 points in Week 1 and six of Baltimore’s last seven wins have been by double digits. Take the Ravens and lay 9 points (-110).

The Over/Under is the lowest of the week (44 points at -110 for both Over and Under). Week 18 excluded, the Ravens have scored more than 30 points in eight of their last 10 games, including against the Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins. The Texans have enough big-play ability to keep up for a while, just not 60 minutes. Take Over 44 point (-110).

Green Bay Packers (+350) at San Francisco 49ers (-450)

The 49ers are the biggest favorites of the week (9.5 points at -110 for both teams). There’s a good reason for it. Their wins this season have come by 23, 7, 18, 19, 32, 31, 13, 18, 23, 12, 16 and 17. When you’ve hit 11 of 12 times, it’s hard to walk away from that pay window. Take the 49ers and lay 9.5 points (-110).

This is the highest Over/Under of the week (50.5 points at -110 for both). While both offenses are capable of putting up big numbers, if you’re of the belief that the 49ers are going to win, they’re going to take the air out of the ball in the second half, especially if the Packers can’t stop it. Take Under 50.5 points (-110).

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+220) at Detroit Lions (-275)

The Lions are solid favorites (6.5 points at -110 for both teams). This is more because of the Buccaneers than a Lions juggernaut. The Bucs played five regular-season games this year against teams that made the playoffs. They lost them all. Too many things have to happen right for the Bucs to cover this point. Take the Lions and lay 6.5 points (-110).

This Over/Under (48.5 points at -110 for both). The Lions have the best offensive line in the NFL. Dan Campbell is a newbie realist. If Detroit gets ahead by 10 points, they grind one 15-play drive that makes this number really hard to hit. Take Under 48.5 points (-110).

Kansas City Chiefs (+120) at Buffalo Bills (-145)

The Bills are a disrespected home playoff favorite (2.5 points at +100 Chiefs, -120 Bills). Since 2021, Josh Allen is 3-2 against the Chiefs – all on the road. He’s 3-0 in the regular season and 0-2 in the playoffs. The Chiefs have become like Muhammad Ali – you keep betting on him until you shouldn’t. Getting two-and-a-hook keeps multiple game scenarios in play. Take the Chiefs plus 2.5 points (+100).

Few would think the Over/Under would be this low (46 points at -110 for both teams). But, in their last two meetings, the point totals have been 44 and 37. That’s not a fluke. Both teams have discovered the running game, and with Buffalo’s defense so depleted in the back seven, both teams need to win by any means necessary. This has a 23-20 vibe more than it does a 35-31 likelihood – both which involve nine scoring drives. Take Under 46 points (-110).