Tag: Diamondbacks Phillies odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks (37-38) and Philadelphia Phillies (49-25) open a 3-game set Friday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is at 6:40 p.m. ET (Apple TV). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Phillies won last year’s regular-season series 4-3 and Diamondbacks won 4-3 in NLCS

The Diamondbacks have not lost any of their last 6 series, winning 4 and splitting 2. They are 12-6 in their last 18 games. They are coming off a 5-2 win on the road over the Washington Nationals Thursday to win the first series of their road trip.

The Phillies are 4-5 since returning from their series against the New York Mets in London. They are coming off a series win at home over the San Diego Padres but lost the finale 5-2 Wednesday.

Diamondbacks at Phillies projected starters

LHP Jordan Montgomery vs. RHP Taijuan Walker

Montgomery (5-4, 6.00 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.63 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 57 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER (1 R), 4 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 12-5 home victory over Chicago White Sox Sunday
  • Heading into Sunday’s start, had allowed 17 runs in previous 3 outings (11 2/3 IP)

Walker (3-2, 5.33 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 49 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 6-2 road loss to Baltimore Orioles Saturday
  • Phillies are 1-5 in his last 6 starts

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Diamondbacks at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:40 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Phillies -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-160) | Phillies -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Diamondbacks at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 7, Diamondbacks 4

Moneyline

The Phillies (-145) have won 6 straight series openers. They have the best record in the National League and best home record in all of baseball. They face an Arizona team that is 9-15 against teams with winning records and 18-20 on the road.

While the Phillies are 1-5 in Walker’s last 6 starts, Montgomery has been disappointing. He has a 9.18 ERA over his last 4 starts.

Betting the Phillies at -145 to win isn’t a bad bet, but the run line is a better option.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

Fourteen of Arizona’s last 16 losses, including 6 straight, have been by 2 or more runs. The D-backs are 17-17 ATS on the road, while the Phillies are 22-17 ATS at home.

Of the Phillies’ 49 victories, 37 have been by at least 2 runs.

It is a good bet that if they win, it will be by multiple runs, so take advantage of the plus odds.

BET PHILLIES -1.5 (+135).

Over/Under

Three of the Phillies’ last 5 games and 6 of the last 10 have had 11 or more total runs.

Arizona’s last 3 games did not reach double digits in total runs, but 8 of its previous 9 did surpass this number. Montgomery’s last 4 starts have all had totals of more than 10.

BET OVER 10 (-105).

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NLCS Game 7: Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies Game 7 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies close out their best-of-7 NL Championship Series Tuesday. First pitch in Game 7 at Citizens Bank Park is slated for 8:07 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s  lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Series: Tied 3-3

Arizona beat the Phillies 6-1 in Monday’s Game 6 to force a 7th game. The Diamondbacks have won 3 of 4  after falling behind in the series 2-0. On Monday, the Arizona bullpen threw 4 scoreless innings in protecting an early lead set up by 2 home runs and a triple off Philadelphia starter Aaron Nola.

The Phillies lost at home for just the 2nd time since Sept. 21; they are now 12-2 over that stretch. An offense with an OPS approaching .800 over the last month has been held under 2 runs just twice since Sept. 15; both times were in this series.

The winner will meet the Texas Rangers in the World Series.

Diamondbacks at Phillies projected starters

RHP Brandon Pfaadt vs. LHP Ranger Suarez

Pfaadt went 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA in 18 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.41 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 96 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 K in 2-1 win vs. Phillies in Thursday’s NLCS Game 3 — his only career start vs. Philadelphia
  • 2023 road stats: 1-4, 5.04 ERA in 50 IP
  • Postseason: 2.13 ERA in 12 2/3 IP, all this October

Suarez went 4-6 with a 4.18 ERA in 22 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.42 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 125 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 K in 2-1 loss vs. Diamondbacks in Thursday’s NLCS Game 3
  • 2023 home stats: 1-3, 5.45 ERA in 66 IP across 12 starts
  • Last 5 starts vs. Diamondbacks: 0-1, 3.20 ERA in 25 1/3 IP (2022-23)
  • Postseason: 0.94 ERA in 28 2/3 IP (2022-23)

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Diamondbacks at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 6:36 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Diamondbacks +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Phillies -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-140) | Phillies -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Diamondbacks at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Diamondbacks 4

Moneyline

Arizona was a near-.500 club on the road the last couple months of the regular season, and the Phillies have looked sharp at home for the better part of the last 2 months.

This matchup is an encore of Game 3 when Pfaadt and Suarez dueled in the desert. Nether went 6 innings, and the bullpens were involved more than the bats in a 2-1 D-backs triumph.

Look for more offense in this game, but these prices and this pitching match-up (not much leverage on either side) make Game 7 perhaps the least attractive play of the series for a side.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

The average MLB club played 44 one-run games during the season. The Phillies played 53. This series has had a pair of 1-run games, both won by Arizona.

PASS.

Over/Under

Monday’s game cashed on an Under 7.5. But across Arizona’s previous 4 road games, the Over went 3-1. The Over also had gone 3-1 in Philly’s 4 previous home games.

The largest analytics-generated actual-vs.-expected lean in this matchup is in the bullpens. With a significant fade against both. Both have gotten away with shaky walk rates, perhaps-lucky HR rates on fly balls, and overly tidy percentages of stranded runners. Both pens have expected ERA figures at around a run higher than surface numbers being registered.

The back end of the Arizona pen — many parts anyway — will be working a 2nd straight game.

A slight outward, batter-helping breeze is in the weather forecast. And 2 pitching components — Pfaadt and the Phillies bullpen — trend toward yielding more fly balls than average. Albeit in a small sample, Pfaadt has been frequently barreled up for a pitcher who owns a 2.13 ERA this postseason.

BET THE OVER 8.5 (-105).

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NLCS Game 6: Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies Game 6 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies continue their best-of-7 NL Championship Series Monday. First pitch in Game 6 at Citizens Bank Park is slated for 5:07 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s  lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Series: Phillies lead 3-2

Arizona took 2 of 3 at home Thursday through Saturday, but the Diamondbacks are now back in Philadelphia where they dropped Games 1 and 2, so they are on the brink of elimination. The series was leveled in a pair of 1-run wins by the Diamondbacks in Games 3 and 4, but the Phils countered with 3 HRs in a wire-to-wire 6-1 triumph Saturday.

The Phillies have hit 23 HRs this postseason. Philadelphia has been playing well at home in front of a frenzied fan base not accustomed to deep runs in October. The Phillies are 12-1 at home since Sept. 21.

Diamondbacks at Phillies projected starters

RHP Merrill Kelly vs. RHP Aaron Nola

Kelly went 12-8 with a 3.29 ERA across 30 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.19 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 177 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 6 K in 10-0 loss in Game 2 of this series
  • 2023 regular-season road stats: 7-4, 4.07 ERA in 84 IP across 15 starts
  • Career starts vs. Phillies: 1-2, 3.55 ERA in 25 1/3 IP across 4 starts (2019-23)
  • Postseason: 3.00 ERA in 12 IP (2023)

Nola went 12-9 with a 4.46 ERA across 32 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.15 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 193 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 K in 10-0 win in Game 2 of this series
  • 2023 regular-season home stats: 6-3, 3.29 ERA in 87 2/3 IP across 14 starts
  • Last 5 starts vs. Diamondbacks: 2-2, 6.11 ERA in 28 IP (2017-23)
  • Postseason: 3.25 ERA in 44 1/3 IP (2022-23)

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Diamondbacks at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated Sunday at 10:21 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Diamondbacks +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Phillies -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-130) | Phillies -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Diamondbacks at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Diamondbacks 4

Moneyline

As I have noted a couple of times in this series, Arizona isn’t too far removed from going 27-28 over its final 55 games of the regular season. And save for 2 impressive wins at Dodger Stadium — against a perhaps-rusty Los Angeles nine, the D-backs haven’t exactly been all that dangerous on the road. Since Sept. 10, Arizona is 8-9 away from the desert.

As noted when these same hurlers squared off in Game 2, there is some fade to Merrill’s surface line. The Arizona righty benefited from a .279 batting average on balls in play during the regular season (.246 BABIP in inning leadoff situations, .267 BABIP with runners in scoring position). That all points to an artificially low ERA on the surface. And he was torched by walks and home runs by this same club in this same park on Oct. 17.

Over his last 5 starts (regular and postseason combined), Nola has registered a 1.44 ERA and 35 K against just 2 BB in 30 1/3 IP. He’s more tested in playoff pressure.

Is Nola and the Philly side worth the tag in this one? Its 20 cents higher than the -165 in Game 2. Yes, this is still a value side.

BACK THE PHILLIES (-185).

Run line/Against the spread

The average MLB club played 44 one-run games during the season. The Phillies played 20.5% more (53). In a game — and series — where there is some fade to the bullpens, PASS on the run line.

Over/Under

The Over is 6-1-2 in the last 11 meetings. And that’s the slight lean here. But with rested back ends of the bullpens and some cool weather in the forecast, laying off looks to be the way to go.

PASS.

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NLCS Game 2: Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies Game 2 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies meet Tuesday to continue their best-of-7 NL Championship Series. First pitch in Game 2 at Citizens Bank Park is at 8:07 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s  lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Series: Phillies lead 1-0

Arizona got to the NLCS by sweeping the Milwaukee Brewers 2-0 in a Wild Card series and the Los Angeles Dodgers 3-0 in an NL Division Series. The Diamondbacks tasted their 1st postseason loss Monday, culling together just 4 hits in losing 5-3 in Philadelphia.

The Phillies are 7-1 with a plus-31 run differential in October. They have good things going on the mound (October ERA of 1.52) and at the plate (.911 OPS in October). Philadelphia is also playing well at home in front of a frenzied fan base. The Phils are 11-1 at home since Sept. 21.

Diamondbacks at Phillies projected starters

RHP Merrill Kelly vs. RHP Aaron Nola

Kelly went 12-8 with a 3.29 ERA across 30 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.19 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 177 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 1/3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 5 K in 11-2 win at Los Angeles Dodgers Oct. 7, his postseason debut
  • 2023 regular-season road stats: 7-4, 4.07 ERA in 84 IP across 15 starts
  • Career starts vs. Phillies: 1-1, 2.75 ERA in 19 2/3 IP (2019-23)

Nola went 12-9 with a 4.46 ERA across 32 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.15 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 193 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 9 K in 10-2 win vs. Atlanta Braves last Wednesday
  • 2023 regular-season home stats: 6-3, 3.29 ERA in 87 2/3 IP across 14 starts
  • Last 5 starts vs. Diamondbacks: 2-2, 7.67 ERA in 27 IP (2015-23)
  • Postseason: 3.76 ERA in 38 1/3 IP (2022-23)

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Diamondbacks at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 6:58 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Diamondbacks +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Phillies -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-155) | Phillies -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Diamondbacks at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Diamondbacks 4

Moneyline

The Phils are on a roll. There is some fade to Merrill’s surface line. The Arizona righty benefited from a .279 batting average on balls in play during the regular season (.246 BABIP in inning leadoff situations, .267 BABIP with runners in scoring position). That all points to an artificially low ERA on the surface. And he might be overrated by some bettors after his good line in the NLDS game against the Dodgers, a club that had been off for 5 days before that game.

Over his last 4 efforts (regular and postseason combined), Nola has clocked a 1.78 ERA and 28 K against just 2 BB in 25 1/3 IP. He’s the more October-battle-tested pitcher in this match-up.

Arizona isn’t too far removed from going 27-28 over its final 55 games of the regular season.

Run, don’t walk, to get in on their PHILLIES (-165) play. Its almost surely a tag that will get pricier.

Run line/Against the spread

The average MLB club played 44 one-run games during the season. The Phillies played 20.5% more (53). In a game where there is some fade to the bullpens, AVOID the run line.

Over/Under

The Over is 7-2-2 in the last 11 meetings. There is some fade to both bullpens in this matchup. And to the Arizona starter. But weather conditions are a bit cooler, and Nola could bend this number down with a dominant night of which he’s capable.

PASS.

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NLCS Game 1: Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies Game 1 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies meet Monday to open their best-of-7 NL Championship Series. First pitch in Game 1 at Citizens Bank Park is at 8:07 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s  lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Regular-season series: Phillies won 4-3

Arizona got to the NLCS by sweeping the Milwaukee Brewers 2-0 in a Wild Card series and the Los Angeles Dodgers 3-0 in an NL Division Series. The Diamondbacks’ 5 straight wins are on the heels of the club losing 4 straight to end the regular season. Arizona was under-.500 after Aug. 1 (27-28), so its postseason run is a surprise.

The Phillies have advanced to this series after a 2-0 Wild Card win over the Miami Marlins and a 3-1 NLDS triumph over the best-record-in-the-NL Atlanta Braves. Including its regular-season finale, Philadelphia is 6-1 with a plus-29 run differential in October.

Diamondbacks at Phillies projected starters

RHP Zac Gallen vs. RHP Zack Wheeler

Gallen went 17-9 with a 3.47 ERA across 34 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.12 WHIP, 2 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 210 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 4 K in 4-2 win at Los Angeles Dodgers last Monday
  • 2023 regular-season road stats: 5-6, 4.42 ERA in 108 IP across 18 starts
  • Last 5 starts vs. Phillies: 3-1, 2.22 ERA in 24 1/3 IP (2019-23)
  • Postseason: 3.12 ERA in 11 1/3 IP (2023)

Wheeler went 13-6 with a 3.61 ERA across 32 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.08 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 192 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 10 K in 5-4 loss at Atlanta Braves last Monday
  • 2023 regular-season home stats: 5-2, 4.13 ERA in 89 1/3 IP across 13 starts
  • Last 5 starts vs. Diamondbacks: 3-2, 3.13 ERA in 31 2/3 IP (2019-23)
  • Postseason: 2.59 ERA in 48 2/3 IP (2022-23)

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Diamondbacks at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 8:12 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Diamondbacks +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Phillies -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-155) | Phillies -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Diamondbacks at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Diamondbacks 4

Moneyline

In his 2 postseason starts, Gallen’s walk rate has been up and his swinging-strike rate has been down.

In the 2nd half of the season, Wheeler logged a 3.08 ERA on the strength of a .596 OPS allowed.

Wheeler has the form; Arizona is not that far removed from being a near-.500 team for long stretches. The Phils have a good thing going in their home yard, where they are 10-1 since Sept. 21.

The price here offers leverage: BACK THE PHILLIES (-165).

Run line/Against the spread

The average MLB club played 44 one-run games during the season. The Phillies played 20.5% more (53). In a game where there is some fade to the bullpens, AVOID the run line.

Over/Under

The Over is 6-2-2 across the last 10 meetings.

There is some fade to both bullpens in this matchup. Both have favorable rates around the margins that are difficult to hold or repeat. Both starters are up in their innings from last season — Wheeler more so, but Gallen is just 2 years removed from 120 IP (and has 220-plus in 2023).

FanDuel Sportsbook offers the better Over pricing here: TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (-102).

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Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Arizona Diamondbacks (28-33) will try to avoid getting swept in a 3-game series at the Philadelphia Phillies (30-29) Sunday. First pitch in the series finale is set for 1:35 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Phillies lead 2-0

The Diamondbacks, who are wrapping up a 10-game road trip, were blanked 4-0 Saturday after losing 7-5 in the series opener. They are 3-6 on this trip.

The Phillies have now won 9 straight games, including 6 in a row at home.

Diamondbacks at Phillies projected starters

LHP Kyle Nelson vs. LHP Ranger Suarez

Nelson (1-0, 2.04 ERA) makes his first career start as the Diamondbacks go with a bullpen game. It is his 20th appearance of the season. He has a 1.02 WHIP, 2 BB and 19 K through 17 2/3 IP.

  • Nelson has only allowed runs in 3 of his 19 appearances this season.
  • He has pitched more than 1 inning only 4 times this season.

Suarez (4-3, 4.42 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.47 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 through 55 IP.

  • The Phillies have lost three of Suarez’ last 4 starts, but he is coming off a start when he lasted 7 innings and allowed 2 runs on 6 hits.
  • Has allowed 3 or more earned runs in 6 of his 11 starts.

Diamondbacks at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:44 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Diamondbacks +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Phillies -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-108) | Phillies -1.5 (-112)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Diamondbacks at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Diamondbacks 6, Phillies 5

Money line

The Diamondbacks have only been swept in a road series once this season. It was a 4-game set at the Los Angeles Dodgers in mid-May.

The Phillies have won 9 games in a row, which means they are due for a loss. They have, though, lost 3 of Suarez’ last 4 starts. They are 17-15 at home this season.

This is the game that Arizona sneaks in for the win, relying on the normally unreliable bullpen.

Take the DIAMONDBACKS (+180).

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Run line/Against the spread

The Diamondbacks are 35-26 ATS this season. Only 3 teams have been better ATS this season. They are 2-6 ATS in their last 7 games.

They failed to cover the spread in either of the first 2 games of this series. Only once this season have they failed to cover the spread in at least one game of a series.

The Phillies have won 4 straight games by at least 2 runs. Seven of their 9 wins in the streak have been by 2 or more runs.

However, they are 15-17 ATS at home this season.

The better bet is to take Arizona on the money line because of the payout, but if you prefer the run line, take the DIAMONDBACKS +1.5 (-108).

Over/Under

The Diamondbacks have a 4.58 reliever ERA this season and they’ll be going with relievers the entire game Sunday.

In 6 of Suarez’ 11 starts this season, there have been 10 or more runs.

Six of the Diamondbacks’ last 9 wins have had totals of 10 runs or more.

Six of the Phillies’ 9 wins in their streak have had 10 or more runs.

Take OVER 9.5 (-115).

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Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Arizona Diamondbacks (28-32) face the Philadelphia Phillies (29-29) for the second game of their 3-game series in Philadelphia. First pitch is 4:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Phillies took the series opener 7-5 Friday and lead the season series 1-0.

The Diamondbacks are 3-5 so far on their 10-game road trip. They had won 2 games in a row before dropping the series opener.

The Phillies have won their last 8 games. This winning streak follows a 5-game losing skid.

Diamondbacks at Phillies projected starters

LHP Madison Bumgarner vs. RHP Zack Wheeler

Bumgarner (2-5, 3.64 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 through 59 1/3 IP.

  • Has taken a loss in each of his last 3, and in 4 of his last 5, starts.
  • Has posted a 5.28 ERA through 29 innings across his last 5 outings after posting a 1.78 ERA and not allowing more than 2 runs in any of his first 7 starts of the season.

Wheeler (4-3, 3.14 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 through 57 1/3 IP.

  • Has won 4 straight decisions and the Phillies have won 4 of his last 5 starts.
  • Has a 1.75 ERA across 25 2/3 IP  through his last 4 starts.

Diamondbacks at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:51 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Diamondbacks +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Phillies -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-105) | Phillies -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Diamondbacks at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 7, Diamondbacks 5

Money line

PASS on the money line.

The Phillies are rolling right now and Wheeler is on a roll in his last 4 starts, while Bumgarner has been less effective in his last few appearances.

Expect a Phillies win, but there isn’t enough value for a money line bet unless you include it as part of a parlay bet. Your action should be on the run line and the total.

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Run line/Against the spread

The Diamondbacks are 35-25 ATS this season, the 2nd-best mark in the majors against the spread. However, 8 of their last 10 losses have been by more than 1 run.

The Phillies are 30-28 ATS overall and 6 of the 8 wins of their current streak have been by more than 1 run. They have won 5 of Wheeler’s last 7 starts by at least 2 runs.

Take the PHILLIES -1.5 (-115).

Over/Under

The Phillies have had the total hit 9 or higher in 12 of their last 13 games.

Three of the last 4 games for the Diamondbacks have had 9 or more runs. One thing to note is the fact they have not scored any runs in Bumgarner’s last 2 starts.

Arizona’s opponents have scored 6 or more runs in Bumgarner’s last 4 starts.

Take OVER 8.5 (-110).

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Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (64-64) host the Arizona Diamondbacks (44-86) Saturday for the third game of their four-game series at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

These teams split the first two games with Arizona winning the opener 8-7 and Philly winning Friday 7-6 in extra innings.

Season series: D-Backs lead 4-1.

RHP Humberto Meija makes his second start for the D-Backs. Meija earned a no-decision in his first start Monday with 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 7 K in Arizona’s 6-5 loss at the Pittsburgh Pirates.

RHP Kyle Gibson gets the nod for the Phillies. Gibson is 9-5 with a 3.06 ERA (144 IP, 49 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 23 starts and one relief appearance for Philly and the Texas Rangers.

  • Last outing: Win, 7-4, with 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 3 K Sunday at the San Diego Padres.
  • Gibson lost at the D-Backs Aug. 17, 3-2, with a stat line of 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
  • Stats since joining Philly: 3-2 with a 3.77 ERA (31 IP, 13 ER), 1.32 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 in four starts and one bullpen outing.

Diamondbacks at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:32 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Diamondbacks +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Phillies -205 (bet $205 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-130) | Phillies -1.5 (+105)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Prediction

Phillies 5, Diamondbacks 1

Money line (ML)

PASS.

Even though I “lean” Philly -205 is too expensive given their 3-7 record over the last 10 games, which includes them getting swept in a three-game series at Arizona from Aug. 17-19.

I also don’t see a lot of value in backing the D-Backs in this spot because the Phillies have a winning record at home and against righty starters.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the PHILLIES -1.5 (+105) for a half unit only because there’s “reverse line movement” in the betting market as both the pros and the Joes are taking Philly’s run line but the line is moving in Arizona’s direction.

The D-Backs are just 10-15 ATS as road underdogs facing a righty starter with a minus-22.2% return on investment and an average score of 3.9-6.4.

Arizona’s bullpen is the only one in the majors that has a lower WAR than Philly’s and the D-Backs relievers also rank dead-last in left-on-base percentage and FIP.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-102) for a half unit because the presumed “sharp” money in the market is backing the Under while the public is betting the Over according to Pregame.com.

Typically, in sports betting, it’s wiser to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the crowd.

Furthermore, the most runs Gibson has allowed in a start for the Phillies was the 3 earned runs he surrendered in his last outing against Arizona. I’m expecting him to put together a quality start against an Arizona lineup that has the fourth-fewest wRC+ in MLB.

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Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Arizona Diamondbacks (44-85) and Philadelphia Phillies (63-64) meet Friday for the second game of their four-game set at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Taylor Widener is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks. Widener is 2-1 with a 4.34 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, and 4.7 BB/9 over 56 IP across 12 starts.

  • Faced the Phillies two starts back and allowed 1 run on 2 hits through 5 IP. Has worked around 10 BB to post a 2.40 ERA in his last 15 IP.
  • Has not pitched well at home but owns a 3.16 ERA over 37 frames on the road.
  • Has benefited from a .252 batting average on balls in play and an 81.6% left-on-base rate.

RHP Aaron Nola is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, and 2.1 BB/9 through 143 1/3 IP over 25 starts.

  • Allowed 3 R (2 ER) on 2 H and 2 BB across 8 2/3 IP while tossing a season-high 117 pitches in his last start. Went just 13 1/3 IP with a 6.08 ERA over his previous three starts.
  • Owns a 2.96 ERA and 1.09 WHIP at home since 2019.

Diamondbacks at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Diamondbacks +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Phillies -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-105) | Phillies -1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Prediction

Diamondbacks 5, Phillies 4

Money line (ML)

The Snakes won Thursday’s opener 8-7 and are 3-4 through the first seven games of a three-stop, 10-game road trip. The Diamondbacks have been hitting well on the journey with an .809 OPS over the seven games. They own a hard-hitting .817 OPS since Aug. 10.

Philadelphia started August by winning eight straight games but is just 4-11 since. Philly has scored just 3.1 runs per game with a .611 OPS over that span.

The D-Backs are a bad team but still a slightly undervalued one. With some lean against Nola coming off the big pitch count, BACK ARIZONA (+200).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS on the run line unless you can wait out an Arizona plus-money tag.

Over/Under (O/U)

Fading Nola on a “next time out” situation gets added to Widener being somewhat overvalued by his surface line. Mix in a Diamdonbacks batting order in high-production mode and a warm, humid, breeze-out night in Philadelphia.

There is a sliver of value on the OVER 8.5 (-122).

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Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Arizona Diamondbacks (43-85) and Philadelphia Phillies (63-63) tangle Thursday at 7:05 p.m. ET as they open a four-game set at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Zach Gallen is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks. Gallen is 1-7 with a 4.59 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, and 3.9 BB/9 over 80 1/3 IP across 16 starts.

  • Has been tagged by a 17.3% home run/fly ball rate.
  • Tossed 7 scoreless frames in his last outing but still owns a 5.61 ERA over his last six starts.

RHP Zach Eflin is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 4-7 with a 4.17 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, and 1.4 BB/9 through 105 2/3 IP over 18 starts.

  • Has been hurt by a .328 batting average on balls in play.
  • Current Arizona bats own a .503 OPS against him.
  • Returning to action after a kneecap injury. Hasn’t pitched an MLB game since July 16.
  • Owns a 3.52 ERA and 1.23 WHIP at home since 2019.

Diamondbacks at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:23 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Diamondbacks +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Phillies -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-160) | Phillies -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Diamondbacks 4, Phillies 3

Money line (ML)

Arizona is 2-4 through the first six games of a 10-game road trip. The Diamondbacks have been hitting well on the journey with a .773 OPS over the six games despite the losing record, and they have a hard-hitting .803 OPS since Aug. 10.

Philadelphia started August by winning eight straight games but is 4-10 since. The Phils have scored just 2.9 runs per game with a .606 OPS over that span.

Both bullpens have struggled of late, but both Zachs here are more likable than their surface lines. Overall, Arizona has been hurt by its 7-24 record in 1-run contests while Philly has been buoyed by its 23-17 mark in such games.

Figure on some value on a hard-to-bet Snakes team bumping along on a tough road trip. Consider a partial-unit play on ARIZONA (+130).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS on the extra juice applied to these run-and-a-half lines.

Over/Under (O/U)

Both offenses have Statcast quality-of-contact numbers that peg them as being a tad too far over their skis with their production. Lean into both starters on this angle, and TAKE THE UNDER 8.5 (+105).

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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