The Arizona Diamondbacks (43-85) and Philadelphia Phillies (63-63) tangle Thursday at 7:05 p.m. ET as they open a four-game set at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Zach Gallen is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks. Gallen is 1-7 with a 4.59 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, and 3.9 BB/9 over 80 1/3 IP across 16 starts.
- Has been tagged by a 17.3% home run/fly ball rate.
- Tossed 7 scoreless frames in his last outing but still owns a 5.61 ERA over his last six starts.
RHP Zach Eflin is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 4-7 with a 4.17 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, and 1.4 BB/9 through 105 2/3 IP over 18 starts.
- Has been hurt by a .328 batting average on balls in play.
- Current Arizona bats own a .503 OPS against him.
- Returning to action after a kneecap injury. Hasn’t pitched an MLB game since July 16.
- Owns a 3.52 ERA and 1.23 WHIP at home since 2019.
Diamondbacks at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:23 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Diamondbacks +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Phillies -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-160) | Phillies -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Prediction
Diamondbacks 4, Phillies 3
Money line (ML)
Arizona is 2-4 through the first six games of a 10-game road trip. The Diamondbacks have been hitting well on the journey with a .773 OPS over the six games despite the losing record, and they have a hard-hitting .803 OPS since Aug. 10.
Philadelphia started August by winning eight straight games but is 4-10 since. The Phils have scored just 2.9 runs per game with a .606 OPS over that span.
Both bullpens have struggled of late, but both Zachs here are more likable than their surface lines. Overall, Arizona has been hurt by its 7-24 record in 1-run contests while Philly has been buoyed by its 23-17 mark in such games.
Figure on some value on a hard-to-bet Snakes team bumping along on a tough road trip. Consider a partial-unit play on ARIZONA (+130).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS on the extra juice applied to these run-and-a-half lines.
Over/Under (O/U)
Both offenses have Statcast quality-of-contact numbers that peg them as being a tad too far over their skis with their production. Lean into both starters on this angle, and TAKE THE UNDER 8.5 (+105).
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