Tag: derrick-lewis

UFC on ESPN 56: Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 56 odds between Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round heavyweight bout in the main event, Derrick Lewis and Rodrigo Nascimento meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 56 at Enterprise Center in St. Louis. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 56: Lewis vs. Nascimento odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET and can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+.

Records: Lewis (27-12-0) | Nascimento (11-1-0)

Lewis, a.k.a. “The Black Beast”, makes his 2nd consecutive main event appearance, 5th main event in the past 9 bouts since Aug. 8, 2020, and 11th main event in his UFC career.

Lewis has managed just 2 victories in the past 7 fights since UFC 265, a 3rd-round KO/TKO loss to Ciryl Gane in a championship bout. His only 2 wins in the 7-bout span are Round 1 knockouts of Chris Daukaus and Marcos Rogerio de Lima.

Nascimento has been a quick riser in the UFC ranks, winning 3 straight fights despite the fact the quality of opponent has been increasing. He had a split-decision win over Tanner Boser in Sept. 2022, and a split-decision win over Ilir Latifi in May 2023. He also pushed past Don’Tale Myers via unanimous-decision last time out. Nascimento has topped Myers twice already in his UFC career.

The 39-year-old Lewis is 8 years older than the Brazilian fighter, and Nascimento has a slight 1-inch reach advantage. Experience is on the side of Lewis, and it’s not even close. Nascimento has managed 4.31 significant strikes landed per minute, to just 2.43 for Lewis over his career. And Nascimento is slightly more accurate at 55.26%.

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UFC on ESPN 56: Lewis vs. Nascimento odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:50 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Lewis -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Nascimento +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +115 | Under -150)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +600 | No -1400)

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UFC on ESPN 56: Lewis vs. Nascimento picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

This fight is all about experience. LEWIS (-165) has been through a ton of the wars, fighting in 11 previous main events. Nascimento (+135) is, well, nascent. He has a bright future, but the time is not now for the Brazilian fighter.

While Lewis has been struggling to get the job done, he has been fighting a ton of top-notch talent during the span. He is coming off of a unanimous-decision loss to Jailton Almeida last time out in early November.

While Nascimento lands more punches, the experience of Lewis should be leaned into. He is a solid play on the 2-way line.

Over/Under (O/U)

Nascimento has ended up going the distance in 3 straight fights, but he won’t be able to go toe-to-toe with Lewis.

Lewis is a knockout artist, and that’s the best method of victory and play. Roll with LEWIS BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (-140) on the 5-way line for method. You can drop the submission part on the 7-way line, and just go with Lewis by KO/TKO or DQ (-135), but you don’t save much, and you take away another potential avenue to victory. It makes no sense.

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (+115) is a solid play at plus-money, as we should be able to at least get past the midway portion of Round 2. He has gone Over 1.5 rounds in 3 of his past 7, while Nascimento has had 3 straight decisions. Go Over.

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UFC 291: Derrick Lewis vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 291 odds and lines between Derrick Lewis vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a heavyweight bout on the main card, Derrick Lewis and Marcos Rogerio de Lima meet Saturday at UFC 291 at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 291: Lewis vs. Rogerio de Lima odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims are on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET, with the prelims are on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET and the main card is on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.

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Records: Lewis (26-11-0) | Rogerio de Lima (21-9-1)

Lewis takes the walk on a 3-bout losing skid. That includes a pair of 1st-round setbacks against Serghei Spivac in February and Sergei Pavlovich last July. Win or lose, “The Black Beast” has had 7 consecutive fights finish inside the distance, with 3 wins via KO/TKO, 3 losses via KO/TKO and a loss by way of submission.

Rogerio de Lima has picked up victories in each of the past 2 outings, including a unanimous-decision win over Waldo Cortes-Acosta last time out in late April. He has gone the distance in 3 of his previous 5 outings.

Lewis has a 4-inch reach advantage, but Rogerio de Lima holds a 3.62-to-2.54 significant strikes landed per minute edge and is much more accurate on those strikes at 66.78% to just 52.57% for Lewis. In addition, Rogerio de Lima has managed a 1.35 takedown average to just 0.59 for Lewis, and he has a 47.62% takedown accuracy percentage to only 28.13%.

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UFC 291: Lewis vs. Rogerio de Lima odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:36 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Lewis +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Rogerio de Lima -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +150 | Under -200)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +400 | No -700)

UFC 291: Lewis vs. Rogerio de Lima picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Rogerio de Lima (-225) should add to the woes of Lewis (+185), who has suffered a pair of setbacks in the 1st round while losing 3 fights in a row.

The Brazilian fighter has been much more dependable lately, picking up 4 wins in the past 5 outings. However, you can’t risk more than 2 times your potential return.

Take ROGERIO DE LIMA IN ROUND 1 (+100) at even money instead of the outright play on him to just record the victory. You can also play ROGERIO DE LIMA BY KO/TKO/DQ IN ROUND 1 (+125) for a little more value.

Over/Under (O/U)

Under 1.5 Rounds (-200) will cost you 2 times your potential return, and that’s quite expensive, and you can’t play No (-700): Fight to go the distance, as that’s way more costly.

AVOID, and simply focus on the round betting and method instead.

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UFC Fight Night 218: Derrick Lewis vs. Serghei Spivac odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 218 odds between Derrick Lewis and Serghei Spivac, with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a heavyweight bout in the main event, Derrick Lewis and Serghei Spivac meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 218 — also known as UFC Vegas 68 — at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 218: Lewis vs. Spivac odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims on ESPN+ start at 7 p.m. PT, and the main card on ESPN+ begins at 10 p.m PT.

Lewis, a.k.a. “The Black Beast,” is looking to halt a 2-bout losing skid. He has been knocked out in his past 2 fights against Sergei Pavlovich and Tai Tuivasa, and he has dropped 3 of the past 4 outings overall. Since Aug. 8, 2020, all 6 of his fights have ended via KO/TKO, with 3 wins and 3 losses. In his past 11 fights, 9 have ended with a stoppage as well.

Spivac (also known as Sergey Spivak) has posted a pair of KO/TKO wins against Augusto Sakai and Greg Hardy in his previous 2 outings. He is 5-1 in his past 6 fights overall, with 3 KO/TKO wins and a pair of decisions.

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UFC Fight Night 218: Lewis vs. Spivac odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:37 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Lewis +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Spivac -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -103 | Under -133)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +360 | No -650)

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UFC Fight Night 218: Lewis vs. Spivac picks and predictions

Records: Lewis (26-10, 1 NC) | Spivac (15-3)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Spivac (-250) enters as the hotter fighter, winning each of his previous 2 outings, while Lewis (+200) finds himself on a big-time skid. Spivac will add to his woes, although risking nearly 2 1/2 times your potential return isn’t a terribly attractive wager, even in a multi-fighter parlay.

PASS.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-103) is a solid play despite both of these fighters having had plenty of KO/TKO results recently.

Spivac won via knockout last time out against Sakai, but he still ended up going Over 1.5 rounds in that outing, while hitting Over 1.5 rounds in 6 of his past 8 bouts.

Lewis has made it Over 1.5 rounds in just 1 of his last 3 fights, but has hit the mark in 8 of his last 10 bouts. Lewis and Spivac will be involved in a toe-to-toe brawl and they’ll pick and choose their spots carefully. Expect this one to last deep into round 2 at the least.

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UFC Fight Night 215: Derrick Lewis vs. Serghei Spivac odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 215 odds and lines between Derrick Lewis and Serghei Spivac, with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a heavyweight bout in the main event, Derrick Lewis and Serghei Spivac meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 215 at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the UFC Fight Night 215: Lewis vs. Spivac odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN+, and the main card starts at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Lewis, a.k.a. “The Black Beast”, has dropped 3 of the past 4 fights, all via KO/TKO, starting with a tight fight loss at UFC 265 against Ciryl Gane. Each of his past 6 fights has ended via KO/TKO, in fact, with Lewis winning 3 of the outings.

Lewis has a slight 1-inch reach advantage, but Spivac has a 3.79-to-2.57 significant strikes landed per minute lead, while landing 63.61% of his significant strikes. Spivac also has an impressive 4.09 takedown average in his 9 fights since arriving at the UFC level.

Spivac has posted KO/TKO wins against Greg Hardy and Augusto Sakai, bouncing back from a 1st-round KO/TKO loss against Tom Aspinall in Sept. 2021. He has won 5 of the past 6 fights, with just 1 of his last 5 bouts going the distance.

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UFC Fight Night 215: Lewis vs. Spivac odds

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Lewis +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Spivac -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -113 | Under -120)
  • Fight to go distance: Yes (+470) | No (-900)

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UFC Fight Night 215: Lewis vs. Spivac picks and predictions

Records: Lewis (26-10-0) | Spivac (15-3-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Spivac, a.k.a. the “Polar Bear” from Moldova, is a takedown machine. He’ll be looking to get this fight to the mat as quickly as possible. Spivac is 6-0 via submission in his 18 career pro fights, while posting 9 TKO/KO results, winning 7 of them.

However, Spivac (-200) is too expensive on the 2-way line. I don’t think he gets it done via submission, but SPIVAC BY TKO/KO (+145) is a much better play due to his punching ability. He has 4 finishes in the past 5 outings, going 3-1 via KO/TKO during the span. That makes him a good value at this price point.

Over/Under (O/U)

No (-900): Fight to go the distance is obviously way too expensive, costing you 9 times your potential return.

UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS (-120) is a good play here. Lewis is a proud veteran, but each of his past 3 fights has finished Under 1.5 rounds, and Spivac has the punching ability to make that 4 straight.

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UFC 277: Derrick Lewis vs. Sergei Pavlovich odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 277 bout odds and lines between Derrick Lewis vs. Sergei Pavlovich, with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a heavyweight bout on the main card, Derrick Lewis and Sergei Pavlovich meet Saturday at UFC 277 at American Airlines Arena in Dallas. Below, we analyze the UFC 277 Lewis vs. Pavlovich odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the early prelims starting at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, the prelims starting at 8 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+, followed by the main card at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.

Lewis, a.k.a. “The Black Beast”, has had 5 consecutive KO/TKO fights and picked up 3 wins along that stretch. His last fight against Tai Tuivasa at UFC 271 resulted in a 2nd-Round loss. The last decision for Lewis was a unanimous-decision victory against Ilir Latifi at UFC 247 in February 2020.

Pavlovich takes the walk to the octagon with a 5-inch reach advantage. He also holds a 6.08-to-2.56 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while Lewis is the fighter most likely to score points via the takedown.

Pavlovich doesn’t mess around on the ground. He has 3 straight wins via KO/TKO, all in the 1st Round. That includes a victory in mid-March against Shamil Abdurakhimov, as well as wins over Maurice Greene and Marcelo Golm. He is 3-0 since losing his UFC debut against Alistair Overeem in November 2018.

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UFC 277 Lewis vs. Pavlovich odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:04 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Lewis +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Pavlovich -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Total rounds: Over 1.5 (+120) | Under 1.5 (-165)
  • Will the fight go the distance? Yes (+360) | No (-650)

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UFC 277 Lewis vs. Pavlovich picks and predictions

Records: Lewis (26-9-0) | Pavlovich (15-1-0)

Fight result (2-way line or money line)

PAVLOVICH (-160) is a solid value as a moderate favorite. He heads into the octagon with a tremendous 84-inch reach, 5 more inches than Lewis. That will keep Lewis at a distance, which is good news since “The Black Beast” holds the UFC knockout record.

In fact, look for Pavlovich to give Lewis a taste of his own medicine. Moving in and out, using his reach advantage to pick and choose the right time for a knockout opportunity at this leisure. PAVLOVICH BY TKO/KO (-105) is the best chance for a win in method of victory.

Over/Under (O/U)

No (-650): Fight to go the distance is not worth playing. Any wager costing you this much for such a little return and not a good long-term betting strategy.

Instead, look to round block betting, playing PAVLOVICH IN ROUND 2 (+380) and PAVLOVICH IN ROUND 3 (+1000) for the win. Yes, you’ll lose one of those ends even if he wins in Rounds 2-3, but you’ll still be well ahead, especially if he gets the 3rd-Round finish.

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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UFC 271: Derrick Lewis vs. Tai Tuivasa odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 271 odds and lines between Derrick Lewis vs. Tai Tuivasa, with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a heavyweight fight on the main card, Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa meet Saturday at UFC 271 at the Toyota Center in Houston. Below, we analyze the UFC 271: Lewis vs. Tuivasa odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

The early prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ starting at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the prelims on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m., and then the main card on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.

Lewis, a.k.a. “The Black Beast,” has won five of the past six fights, including three KO/TKO wins in the past four outings and a loss to Ciryl Gane at UFC 265. Last time out he posted a first-round KO/TKO over Chris Daukaus in December to get back on track.

Lewis takes the walk to the octagon with a four-inch reach advantage. While Tuivasa throws a lot more punches per minute, Lewis has registered 52.08% in significant strike-accuracy percentage.

The southpaw Tuivasa also has four KO/TKO results in the past four fights, all victories, including a knockout of Augusto Sakai in Round 2 at UFC 269 in December 2011. Each of his past five fights have finished inside the distance.

UFC 271 Lewis vs. Tuivasa: Odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 10:56 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Lewis -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Tuivasa +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +340 | No -600)

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UFC 271 Lewis vs. Tuivasa: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Records: Lewis (26-8-0) | Tuivasa (14-3-0)

Fight result (2-way line or money line)

Lewis (-200) is just a little too expensive at two times your potential return. He is going to have a difficult time with the Aussie Tuivasa, too, as “Bam Bam” has recorded four consecutive KO/TKO wins. Lewis will need to carefully study and measure when to get close so he doesn’t step into a knockout blow himself.

While both of these guys have been knockout artists lately, look for this one to go on for a few rounds as they each feel each other out. Eventually, LEWIS BY KO/TKO OR DQ (-135) is a good play, but it won’t be easy.

Over/Under (O/U)

Taking No (-600): Fight to go the distance is just too expensive, even though Lewis is going to grab the finish, but it won’t be until later in the evening.

Play a two-round block of LEWIS TO WIN IN ROUND 2 (+400) and LEWIS TO WIN IN ROUND 3 (+1500). If he wins in either round, you’ll lose one end of this bet, but you’ll still be well in the black, especially if Lewis gets the finish in Round 3.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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UFC Fight Night 199: Derrick Lewis vs. Chris Daukaus odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 199 odds and lines between Derrick Lewis vs. Chris Daukaus, with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a heavyweight bout in the main event, Derrick Lewis and Chris Daukaus meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 199 – also known as UFC Vegas 45 – at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC Fight Night 199: Lewis vs. Daukaus odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the prelims at 4 p.m. ET and the main card starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Lewis had a four-bout win streak snapped when he was knocked out by Ciryl Gane in the third round of an interim title fight at UFC 265. Each of the past three fights for Lewis has ended via KO/TKO and 10 of his last 13 fights have finished inside the distance.

Daukaus has been on fire lately with five consecutive wins, all via KO/TKO, including each of his four fights at the UFC level. He’s had three first-round knockouts and a second-round KO/TKO win over Shamil Abdurakhimov last time out at UFC 266 in Sept.

UFC Fight Night 199 Lewis vs. Daukaus: Odds and lines

Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:06 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Lewis +117 (bet $100 to win $117) | Daukaus -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +290 | No -475)

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UFC Fight Night 199 Lewis vs. Daukaus: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Records: Lewis (25-8-0) | Daukaus (12-3-0)

Fight result (2-way line or money line)

LEWIS (+117), a.k.a. “The Black Beast”, is looking to work his way back into position for a title shot. He can impress with a victory as he enters as a slight underdog against the knockout machine Daukaus.

Daukaus has yet to suffer a loss at the UFC level but has yet to face a top-tier fighter at the top of their game. Lewis is a patient, heavy-hitting opponent with a three-inch reach advantage who will deliver the first loss of Daukaus’ career.

Over/Under (O/U)

Play a two-round block of LEWIS TO WIN IN ROUND 2 (+900) and LEWIS TO WIN IN ROUND 3 (+2000) for a potentially nice payday. Yes, you will lose one of the ends, but you’ll be very much in the black if Lewis is able to get the finish in in the second or third round.

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Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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UFC 265: Derrick Lewis vs. Ciryl Gane odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 265 odds and lines between Derrick Lewis vs. Ciryl Gane, with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a heavyweight bout in Saturday’s main event, Derrick Lewis will face Ciryl Gane at UFC 265 at Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. Below, we analyze the UFC 265 Derrick Lewis vs. Ciryl Gane odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

The prelims start at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with the main card starting at 10 p.m. ET.

Lewis vs. Gane is the only title bout on the card as the two will fight for the interim heavyweight title. Gane will come in as a strong favorite, currently ranked No. 3. Lewis, despite being No. 2, is facing a fighter that’s yet to lose.

Gane is coming in with nine wins on his resume and zero losses. He’s had three fights end via knockout, three by submission and three go the distance, so he can do a bit of everything.

As for Lewis, he’s won his last four bouts which include his most recent victory over No. 4 ranked Curtis Blaydes. He’s won his last two within the first two rounds as well, landing knockout blows in both.

UFC 265 Lewis vs. Gane: Odds and lines

Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:03 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Derrick Lewis +260 (bet $100 to win $260) | Ciryl Gane -370 (bet $370 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over +120 | Under -154)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +150 | No -210)

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UFC 265 Lewis vs. Gane: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Records: Derrick Lewis (25-7-0) | Ciryl Gane (9-0-0)

Fight result (2-way line or money line)

“LEAN” to DERRICK LEWIS (+260) as the value is there. Lewis is an experienced fighter and he delivers big-time blows.

Averaging just 2.59 significant strikes per minute Lewis doesn’t land many punches, but as we’ve seen throughout his career he lands the ones that count and is capable of taking a beating.

Gane has looked good, but his last two fights – his two most mainstream bouts – have gone the distance. While he lands more blows he hasn’t been able to finish his opponent off.

Given the odds on this one and how Gane has yet to have a top-tier victory, I’d put half a unit on Lewis to take this fight.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET on OVER 3.5 (+125) as Gane’s last two bouts have gone the distance. He’s won those two and is the strong favorite in this one so it wouldn’t be shocking if he can’t get Lewis down in the first 15 minutes.

Gane has a 63 percent defense rate on strikes as well, so he should be able to avoid those massive blows from Lewis for at least the first several rounds. Three of Gane’s last four fights would’ve gone over three rounds while two of Lewis’ last four would have.

When the two big men start to get worn down Lewis’ powerful striking may come into play. Until then the freshness and toughness should keep this bout going. Over 3.5 (+120) rounds is the best bet in this entire bout.

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UFC 247: Derrick Lewis vs. Ilir Latifi odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Saturday’s UFC 247 heavyweight fight between Derrick Lewis and Ilir Latifi, with MMA betting odds, picks and best bets.

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Derrick Lewis and Ilir Latifi will go toe-to-toe at UFC 247 at Toyota Center in Houston in a three-round heavyweight battle on the pay-per-view card (to watch, sign up for ESPN+ now). Below, we breakdown the Lewis-Latifi fight, with UFC 247 betting odds and picks.

Lewis (22-7-0, 1NC) enters this one with two losses to Daniel Cormier and Junior Dos Santos in his past three outings, but he stopped the bleeding against Blagoy Ivanov last time out at UFC 244 with a split-decision victory. He is expected to successfully continue this climb back to the top with this battle. Lewis heads into this one with distinct size advantages, standing 6-foot-3 to the 5-foot-10 Latifi, weighing in at 260 to 205 pounds while also holding the reach advantage at 79″ to 73.5″. In addition, he holds the lead in the significant strikes category at 49.95 significant strike accuracy percentage with 2.63 significant strikes landed per minute. If there is one area Lewis could fail, it’s in the ground game.

Latifi is a compact piece of iron who can take a beating, but his strategy will likely be avoiding a toe-to-toe battle for any length of time, while trying to get Lewis to the canvas early and often. His only advantage in the stats comes in the takedown average (1.85 to 0.52) and takedown accuracy percentage (30.56 to 25.0) departments, while also leading in submission average (0.51 to 0.00). That’s where Latifi will want to fight this main card bout.

Lewis-Latifi odds

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Per BetMGM Sportsbook, Lewis (-239) is a moderate favorite in his heavyweight bout over Latifi (+175). The oddsmakers also lean to the match not going the distance (three rounds), with odds there being set at a -334 for No – and the odds to go a full three rounds at Yes +220.

Are you new to sports betting? A $10 wager on Latifi to pull the upset returns $17.50 in profit. A $10 bet on Lewis at -239 returns a profit of $4.20 with a victory.

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Lewis is a solid favorite, and normally a wager at odds lower than -175 is not my cup of tea. However, you can maximize your profits with a series of other bets while putting down a little lettuce on the big favorite, too.

Lewis-Latifi betting guide

The odds are very good that this bout will not going the full three rounds (-334), but that’s a rather risky play. Instead, go with the fight to go Over 1.5 rounds (-118), which will give you a little room to play with, and make you feel better if it does unexpectedly go the distance.

I think Lewis wins this one in Round 2 (+450) or Round 3 (+800). If you don’t want to pinpoint it, bet both. Unless the fight is decided in Round 1 or it goes the distance, you win, and you can win a lot. In fact, if you were to just bet each of these two wagers exclusively, it could be a tidy little payday. In fact, if you were to bet Lewis to win on points (+500), too, it’s a super hedge, but the only way you lose money is if he wins in Round 1 or Latifi wins. It’s a super safe way to bet this bout, but it could be effective if you don’t feel like risking it.

If you want to watch UFC 247, sign up for ESPN+ and catch all of the action. Speaking of action, if you want to bet on UFC 247, place your wagers at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and analysis, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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