Should you bet on the Green Bay Packers to win Super Bowl LIV?

Previewing the Green Bay Packers’ Super Bowl LIV chances, with NFL betting odds, picks, futures and best bets.

Should you bet anyone to win the Super Bowl? That’s a personal question I suppose. Some would say no. I’d definitely argue yes. In the spirit of trying to break the BetMGM book, let’s take a look at the Green Bay Packers’ case to win Super Bowl LIV.

NFL futures odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Thursday at 11:30 a.m. ET.

Green Bay Packers playoff futures


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NFC Champion: +400

First things first, can the Packers win the NFC championship? I’d argue the best value to win the NFC is the Packers. Considering they are the No. 2 seed entering the playoffs, which earned them a bye in the first round and home-field advantage against every NFC opponent aside from the San Francisco 49ers, isn’t there inherent value in taking the Packers (the third favorite to make it out of the NFC)?

(Photo Credit: Jeff Hanisch – USA TODAY Sports)

Lambeau Field is arguably the strongest home-field advantage in the NFL. Factor in winter conditions and beating the Cheeseheads at Lambeau in January is a rare feat. Since 2008 (when Aaron Rodgers became the Packers’ starting quarterback), Green Bay has the best record in the NFL as a home favorite at 52-33-3.

Also, the Packers are 28-15 straight up in the Rodgers era when having a rest advantage over opponents (sixth-best in the NFL). Given these factors, and their future first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback. PACKERS (+400) to win the NFC is the best value on the board.

Super Bowl: +800

Banking on our Packers +400 bet slip to win the NFC title to cash, what are the chances the PACKERS (+800) win Super Bowl LIV? Many consider the Packers an overrated team heading into the playoffs, but they’ve consistently exceeded expectations this season. The definition of expectations made for a sports team is how they perform against sportsbooks’ odds.

The Packers beat their projected regular-season NFL win total of nine (13-3 straight up) and they had the sixth-best record against the spread in the NFL (10-6 ATS). Winning and appearing in only one Super Bowl in the Rodgers era can be viewed as a disappointment for the Packers, but their 10-5-1 ATS record in playoff games is the second-best in the NFL since 2008 (minimum of three games played).

(Photo credit: Harrison Barden – USA TODAY Sports)

Rodgers isn’t having his typical MVP-caliber season but the Packers should still be considered a dual-threat offense. Rodgers’ down-year included 4,002 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and just four interceptions on a 62% completion rate. But running back Aaron Jones has provided Rodgers with a quarterback’s best friend with a strong run game.

Jones ran for 1,084 yards and tied with an NFL-leading 16 rushing touchdowns. His production is key to the Packers offense; the Packers won all five of the games in which Jones ran for 100-plus yards. Rodgers’ favorite target—WR Davante Adams—missed four games but is healthy to end the season, and he can get a little healthier because of the Packers first-round bye. Adams got rolling at the end of the regular season, catching 27 balls with 312 receiving yards and two touchdowns in the final three games of the season.

The Packers defense is ranked ninth in opponent’s points scored. The last time the Packers were in the top-10 in that category was in 2010 (ranked second) when they won Super Bowl XLV. Their defense is led by two legit pass rushers—both added this past offseason—in DE Preston Smith (12 sacks) and DE Za’Darius Smith (13.5 sacks and NFL-leader in pressures). Based on the Packers’ ability to play complementary football and the wide-open landscape of the NFL entering the postseason, take the PACKERS (+800) to win the whole damn thing.

Want action on this bet? Sign up and bet at BetMGMIf you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

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5 takeaways from Bears’ crushing loss to the Packers

A season that began with Super Bowl aspirations ended before the playoffs even began to the rivals that set them back from the start.

The Chicago Bears came into Green Bay riding a three-game winning streak with the belief they could win out to give themselves a prime opportunity to make the postseason. Both came to an abrupt end on Sunday when the Packers took down the Bears 21-13, effectively eliminating them from playoff contention.

The Packers jumped out to an early lead when quarterback Aaron Rodgers found Davante Adams for a 29-yard touchdown pass in the first quarter. Green Bay boasted a 7-3 lead at halftime and the game felt eerily similar to the first matchup that kicked off the 2019 NFL season.

The Packers, however, scored touchdowns on consecutive possessions to go up 21-3. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears battled back with 10 unanswered points to make it a one-score game, but ran out of time as the final play in regulation turned into a lateral festival.

A season that began with Super Bowl aspirations ends before the playoffs even begin to the bitter rival that set the Bears back from the start. Here are my five takeaways from the unofficial end to the Bears season.

1. This game showed who the Bears truly are

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Are the Bears as good as the team who defeated the Dallas Cowboys last Thursday night behind the arm of Mitchell Trubisky? Or are they as bad as the team that put up just nine yards of offense in the first half of their loss to the Philadelphia Eagles? The answer is neither.

This team is a .500 team that can hang with good teams, but isn’t good enough to get over the hump for a victory. They’ll take care of business against teams such as the New York Giants and Detroit Lions, but will struggle against real competition.

The Packers, despite having a record of 11-3, were vulnerable coming into today’s game and the Bears couldn’t take advantage. The question that needs to be answered this offseason will be if the Bears are closer to the 12-4 squad from 2018, or the .500 team in 2019?

Aaron Rodgers adjusted play on fourth-down TD pass to Davante Adams

Aaron Rodgers’ adjustment at the line helped create the Packers’ first touchdown on Sunday against the Bears.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers adjusted Matt LaFleur’s playcall on the opening touchdown of Sunday’s 21-13 win over the Chicago Bears.

According to LaFleur, Rodgers checked out of the original play, which called for a combination of short routes designed to gain the four yards required on fourth down from the 29-yard line. But Rodgers saw something in the coverage and changed the individual route of Davante Adams, who went on to beat cornerback Buster Skrine with a vertical release from the slot and catch the touchdown pass from Rodgers.

Rodgers said the pre-snap look from the Bears and the Packers’ own tendencies moved him to adjust Adams’ route. Right before the snap, Rodgers hand-signaled to Adams the adjustment.

“A lot of times, on those three-receiver sides, we’ll run three in-breakers,” Rodgers explained. “Based on that, I decided to take a chance and adjust the route and Tay got a great release. And sure enough, at the snap, Buster jumped inside, so it was a really clean release for Davante and I tried to get it up and down before the safety could get there. And he made a really nice catch and run.”

Adams won his release to the outside of Skrine, who was shaded inside, and stacked the veteran cornerback vertically, giving Rodgers a window to make the throw over the top for the score.

LaFleur said Rodgers had mentioned attacking vertically while they were discussing the playcall during a timeout before the fourth down.

“You’ve got to give credit to Aaron on that one, on the fourth down. I called a play and he saw something different and he checked to that play,” LaFleur said. “That was a great job by him of getting us into a great play. Matter of fact, he came over to me during that timeout and said, ‘hey, let’s take a shot here.’ I called a quick gain just trying to move the chains, but he saw bump coverage with inside leverage and he checked it to the shot to Davante. That’s awesome when you have a quarterback that has that capability. That was just a great job by those guys on the field at that time.” 

Packers take 7-0 lead over Bears on fourth-down TD pass from Rodgers to Adams

#Packers strike first! 1️⃣2️⃣ to 1️⃣7️⃣ #CHIvsGB | #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/T2aD6XtNe3 – Green Bay Packers (@packers) December 15, 2019 Matt LaFleur’s fourth-down gamble helped the Green Bay Packers take a 7-0 lead over the Chicago Bears in the …

Matt LaFleur’s fourth-down gamble helped the Green Bay Packers take a 7-0 lead over the Chicago Bears in the first quarter Sunday at Lambeau Field.

LaFleur kept the offense on the field on 4th-and-4 from the 29-yard line. Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams made good on the opportunity, connecting on a 29-yard touchdown when Adams beat Bears cornerback Buster Skrine from the slot for the score.

The play capped off a 35-yard scoring drive that was helped along by a controversial penalty. Bears receiver Cordarrelle Patterson was flagged for kick catch interference when he hit Tramon Williams after he caught a punt near midfield.

The Packers gained six yards on their first three plays of the drive, but LaFleur stayed aggressive, and after a timeout, Rodgers dialed up the perfect pass for Adams after he beat Skrine off the line from the slot.

Rodgers has completed 3-of-6 passes for 40 yards and a touchdown on the Packers’ first two drives. Marquez Valdes-Scantling dropped a potential touchdown on the first play of the game.

Chicago vs. Green Bay: Which Packers player would you want on the Bears?

It’s an impossible question, but if you had to choose which Packers player would you like see playing for the Bears?

The Chicago Bears (7-6) are preparing for their biggest game of the season when they head to Lambeau Field to face their rivals Green Bay Packers (10-3) on Sunday.

While their first meeting didn’t go so well for the Bears — foreshadowing of what would be a difficult season — this second meeting feels like it could go in Chicago’s favor. That is, if they continue what they’ve been doing over the last two weeks.

The Packers look primed to win the NFC North following a season where they missed the playoffs. While they’ve hit some speed bumps over the last few weeks, they’re still a team loaded with talent.

Now, this is certainly not going to be a popular question. But if you absolutely had to choose, which Packers player would you want on the Bears?

VOTE!

[polldaddy poll=10475868]

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Can Davante Adams or Aaron Jones get to 1,000 yards in 2019?

Both players will need strong finishes to the 2019 season to achieve their individual milestones.

Both Davante Adams and Aaron Jones are within striking distance of 1,000-yard seasons, but both players will need a strong finish to the 2019 season to achieve their respective individual milestones.

The Green Bay Packers have four games left, and they’ll face at least two strong defenses (Bears, Vikings) over the last month of the year.

Adams, who missed four games with a toe injury in October, has 644 receiving yards. Jones is sitting at 645 rushing yards. (Note: Jones is already at 1,012 total yards.)

Adams needs to average 89 receiving yards over the final four games to get to 1,000. Jones needs to average 89 rushing yards.

Adams produced the first 1,000-yard receiving season of his career in 2018. He turned in 111 catches, 1,368 yards and 13 touchdowns on 169 targets. He’s on pace for 78 catches, 966 yards and four touchdowns on 119 targets in 2019.

Jones is searching for his first-ever 1,000-yard rushing season. He set a career-high with 728 rushing yards on just 133 attempts last season. He’s on pace to rush for 860 yards on 212 attempts this season.

Packers’ opponents against the pass:

Week Opponent Pass Def DVOA rank Passing yards/game
14 vs. WAS 20 229.8
15 vs. CHI 8 222.2
16 at MIN 14 242.9
17 at DET 26 280.1

Packers’ opponents against the run:

Week Opponent Run Def DVOA rank Rushing yards/game
14 vs. WAS 19 131.6
15 vs. CHI 12 97.5
16 at MIN 9 104.5
17 at DET 20 118.0

You be the judge. Who has the best shot at 1,000?

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Packers list WR Davante Adams as full participant on first injury report of Week 14

Adams must be getting closer and closer to full health after suffering a toe injury in late September.

A small change on the Green Bay Packers’ first injury report of Week 14 suggests receiver Davante Adams is getting close to a full recovery from his toe injury suffered Sept. 26.

The team listed Adams – who initially missed four games with the injury but has played without limitation in the last four – as a full participant at Wednesday’s practice.

It’s the first time Adams has been listed as full on the injury report since the injury.

Since returning from the toe issue, Adams has produced 27 catches for 266 yards and three touchdowns. He’s averaging 9.9 yards per catch and 6.2 yards per target, with a catch percentage of 62.8.

In his first four games, Adams caught 25 passes for 378 yards, averaged 15.1 yards per catch and 10.5 yards per target and caught 69.4 percent of his targets.

A fully healthy Adams over the stretch run could be exactly what the Packers need to get an inconsistent passing game back on track as the playoffs near.

One another thing of note on the Packers’ injury report: cornerback Kevin King was listed as limited with a shoulder injury. He wasn’t on the field late in the Packers’ win over the New York Giants and has long dealt with shoulder issues.

Giants officially eliminated from playoffs in loss to Packers

The New York Giants fell to the Packers in Week 13, which officially eliminated them from the playoffs and extended their losing streak.

The New York Giants predictably fell to the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, extending their losing streak to eight games — the second-longest such streak in team history — and watching as any lingering NFC playoff hopes went out the window.

The game was a mess from the onset with freezing rain coating the field just prior to kickoff and then snow taking over for the duration.

While the Giants started off cold, going three-and-out on their first offensive series, quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the Packers were anything but.

Green Bay kicked things off with a seven-play, 72-yard drive that culminated with an eight-yard pass from Rodgers to wide receiver Davante Adams, but that was just the tip of the proverbial (or literal based on the weather) iceberg.

The Packers would score on three of their four offensive series in the first half. After the initial Adams touchdown, they drove 66 yards on five plays on their second possession, punching the ball into the endzone with a 37-yard touchdown pass from Rodgers to wide receiver Allen Lazard.

Their third series would result in a 47-yard field goal courtesy of Mason Crosby, but they would come up blank on their fourth possession late in the second half, being forced to punt for the first time all day.

On the other side of the ball, the Giants found some footing on their second offensive series, driving 71 yards on 11 plays and capping things off with an 18-yard touchdown pass from quarterback Daniel Jones to wide receiver Sterling Shepard.

Big Blue would also add a later field goal off the leg of Aldrick Rosas, which was a positive he and the team desperately needed, but that was sandwiched in between a Jones interception — his first in 111 pass attempts.

At halftime, the Giants trailed the Packers 17-10.

The second half did not start off as electric as the first half with the Giants and Packers exchanging punts to open things up. It wasn’t until midway through the third quarter that more points were put on the board, once again courtesy of Aldrick Rosas, who trimmed Green Bay’s lead to 17-13 with a 45-yard field goal to cap off a 10-play, 52-yard drive.

But the Packers were quick to answer right back, driving 75 yards on 14 plays culminating with Rodgers’ third touchdown pass of the game, once again to Adams. The drive featured a slew of penalties and a fourth-down conversion for Green Bay.

The Giants had a chance to cut back into that Green Bay lead, but Jones tossed his second interception of the game and the Packers took complete advantage, essentially putting the game on ice with a one-yard touchdown pass from Rodgers to tight end Mercedes Lewis, pushing the score to 31-13 with just over 7:00 remaining.

Two plays later, Jones would make another error in judgement, throwing a ball into coverage and having it picked off for the third time on the day.

Good night, ladies and gentlemen.

The two teams went back-and-forth a bit after that, but there would not be another score or moment of substance.

With the loss, the Giants fall to 2-10 on the season and and head into a Monday night game against the Eagles in Philadelphia in Week 14.

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NFL Prop Bet Payday – Week 13

Analyzing key Week 13 NFL prop bets that seem poised for a pay day, featuring props around Davante Adams, Zach Ertz and Jack Doyle.

Some prop bets are pure luck in nature, like betting on whether the final point total will be even or odd. There is no skill to determining that. Where skill does come into play is taking on the bets that challenge an individual player to have a big game … or at least score a touchdown.

Here are three bets we’re making along with our friends at The Huddle that you should consider placing bets on — and we’re not including that absurd -400 number on Christian McCaffrey scoring a a touchdown. These are three affordable bets that could easily hit for you.

Up and Adams

The Giants pass defense has been hideous all year and have allowed huge days to elite receivers all season, including Mike Evans (three TDs), Adam Thielen (two TDs), Kenny Golladay (two TDs), Amari Cooper (one TD) and Allen Robinson (one TD). In two career meetings, Packers wideout Davante Adams (-143 to score) has caught 13 passes for 210 yards with a touchdown in each game. You have to know the Packers are aware of this and will push Adams early and often, especially when they get in the red zone.


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The truth Ertz

Bill Streicher – USA TODAY Sports

The Dolphins are brutal on multiple levels on both sides of the ball. The Eagles got a new lease on life with the Cowboys’ loss to Buffalo on Thanksgiving Day and need to take advantage of it. It is easy to envision Philly scoring four or five touchdowns in this game and, if they score four, it’s hard to imagine tight end Zach Ertz (100) not having at least one of them.

Jack of all trades

Brian Spurlock – USA TODAY Sports

The Titans have been brutalized by tight ends all season – both great and middling alike. It is a weakness teams have taken advantage of, including the Colts, with Eric Ebron scoring a touchdown in the teams’ first meeting this season. Now Jack Doyle (+230) is the only show at tight end and, at that price, is a value pick for a team prone to not covering tight ends in the red zone.

Now that you have the skinny on what to do with each player, visit BetMGM to place a bet on your favorite NFL Prop Bets now. For additional sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com now and for a complete set of today’s live odds, access them at USA TODAY Sports.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Giants’ Janoris Jenkins feeling confident going into Packers game

New York Giants CB Janoris Jenkins has struggled at times this year, but he’s feeling confident ahead of a Week 13 matchup vs. the Packers.

The New York Giants have struggled against the pass all season and have one of the worst secondaries in all of football, but don’t tell that to cornerback Janoris Jenkins, who is feeling quite confident going into a matchup against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.

Jenkins held an impromptu Twitter Q&A on Thanksgiving Day and one of the questions he received was in regards to Sunday’s game and his likely assignment of shadowing wide receiver Davante Adams.

The Jackrabbit said his goal was simple: cover Adams and don’t let him score.

Jenkins, who’s had an up and down season, was immediately trolled by several frustrated fans, but he refused to back down.

At one point, a fan guaranteed that Adams will score on Jenkins in Week 13, which prompted a very confident and to-the-point tweet from No. 20.

Ironically, these situations usually propel Jenkins to a solid performance. When he’s publicly doubted, he often steps up his game and reminds everyone that he’s capable of being a lockdown corner.

Will that happen on Sunday against Rodgers, Adams & Co.? Time will tell, but as Jenkins alludes, don’t bet against him.

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