NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Week 15

Five prop bets for Week 15 that should turn a profit.

Typically making picks for the weekend games, you have a ton of options. But, as was the case last year, COVID has reared its ugly head – forcing three games to moved into next week and leaving several other games with question marks.

As a result, the number of prop numbers out early are few and far between, so we’re making the picks that we have numbers for instead of having the luxury to pick or choose between a much bigger pool of players.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Dec. 17 at 11:40 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook

The Hunter of the Hunted?

New England Patriots TE Hunter Henry was paid huge money to be the next Gronk, but that hasn’t happened. He has started adding touchdowns to his resume, which helps a lot, but his Over/Under is very low (25.5 receiving yards at -114 for both Over and Under). The Patriots are opening up the offense a little more for Mac Jones, and his completion percentage is very strong. Henry has the size to create mismatches and may only need three receptions to top this number. Take the Over (-114).

Hangin’ with Mr. Cooper

Dallas Cowboys WR Amari Cooper hasn’t been setting the world on fire this season, but his Over/Under has dropped to a point that it has become hard to ignore (50.5 receiving yards at -114 for both). Cooper has topped this number in six of the last eight games he played and, while he caught just three passes in the meeting with the Giants, he hit the 60-yard mark. Dallas’ run game has had its struggled, and the pass game has had to pick up the slack. Cooper is a big-play threat and with the emergence of other receivers, he isn’t getting the double-coverage that typified his first couple season in Dallas. He could top that number with one bomb from Dak Prescott. Take the Over (-114).

Boston Rob

Tampa Bay Buccaneers TE Rob Gronkowski is still rolling along after coming out of retirement last season. His Over/Under is low given his production this season (52.5 receiving yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). He has hit over that number in each of his last four games, but the New Orleans Saints defense is extremely good against tight ends and likely won’t allow Gronk to rumble down the seam without a linebacker in his hip pocket. The Saints are going to try to play ball control and the Buccaneers are leaning more on Leonard Fournette as the season rolls along. Gronk could well hit this number, but it might take five or six catches to do that and that seems a little too high. Take the Under (-114).

Me and Julio Down by the Schoolyard

Tennessee Titans WR Julio Jones at this stage of his career is more of a No. 2 receiving option. He showed that in Atlanta has last couple of seasons and earlier this year before A.J. Brown went down. Now he is the No. 1 guy, which gets No. 1 coverage. The Pittsburgh Steelers’ pass defense has the ability to blanket the opponent’s top receiving threat. That is reflected in Jones’ Over/Under this week (54.5 receiving yards at -114 for both). Pittsburgh is going to pay a lot of attention to Jones, and he isn’t the player who is going to catch six or more passes, which is what it might take to go over the number. Take the Under (-114).

It Ain’t Easy Being Green

It’s never a secret coming into any Green Bay Packers game that WR Davante Adams is going to be the focus of Aaron Rodgers’ plan of attack. His Over/Under is impressive (90.5 receiving yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). But, Adams has topped 100 yards in each of the last three games, and the depleted Baltimore Ravens secondary still plays more man coverage than just about any defense in the league. During the Packers’ run for the No. 1 seed over the last three weeks, Adams has averaged more than eight catches a game. If he comes anywhere close to that, it may be impossible to keep him under 90 yards. Take the Over (-114).

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NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Week 12

We’re looking to take you to the pay window by placing bets on four of the biggest stars.

This week we’re looking to take you to the pay window by placing bets on four of the biggest stars in the game this season and taking a side prop bet on the game’s best kicker, throwing in a curveball that will likely have a winner or loser decided in the first quarter.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Nov. 26 at 6:15 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook

Tommy Boy

Buccaneers QB Tom Brady has been posting huge numbers, which have made his Over/Under totals go off the chain. Against the Colts this week, his O/U for passing yards is gigantic (315.5 passing yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). Brady routinely hit more than 300 yards while with the New England Patriots, but he has hit this number just once in his last five games. So many things can happen to keep his yardage number under, ranging from getting a big lead and laying on the ball, the Indianapolis Colts defense stepping up or Colts RB Jonathan Taylor rushing 20-25 times to reduce the time the Bucs offense is on the field. Any one of those things will make topping the point difficult. Take the Under (-114).

Steeler’s Wheel

After a 1-3 start, the Pittsburgh Steelers saved their season by turning the offense over to rookie RB Najee Harris. Over the next five games, Harris never had less than 22 carries. The Steelers went 4-0-1 in those games. In the five games he has 16 or fewer carries, Pittsburgh is 1-4. There has been no middle ground. In a must-win game against the Cincinnati Bengals, the Over/Under for Harris is modest (66.5 yards rushing yards at -114 for both). If he hits the 20-carry standard he has posted in five of the last six games, it will be almost impossible for him not to surpass that number. Take the Over (-114).

Movin’ On Up

Against likely playoff teams over the last two weeks, Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson has posted more than 300 receiving yards, which is why his Over/Under against the San Francisco 49ers (84.5 receiving yards at -114 for both the Over and Under) seems a little low. He has become a big-play machine, and Jefferson is thrown a ton of deep balls that he turns into 80/20 balls instead of 50/50. It’s a big number but one that might require an injury to prevent him from hitting. Take the Over (-114).

The Adams Family

It’s difficult to ever go against Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams under any circumstances, much less when he is at home. However, while they haven’t done it as often this season as they have in previous years, the Los Angeles Rams may have CB Jalen Ramsey chase Adams wherever he goes on the field. The talent level at receiver drops significantly beyond Adams, so this could be a one-on-one matchup of two All-Pros that lasts all 60 minutes. His Over/Under is pretty high (90.5 receiving yards at -114 for both). But, Aaron Rodgers is no idiot. If Ramsey puts the clamps down on Adams, Rodgers will still take his shots, but likely not as many as he would against a lesser corner. Take the Under (-114).

Just for Kicks

There are plenty of prop bets that can be made on any game. We tend to focus on yardage, but there are also bets for who will or won’t score a touchdown, who will score first, etc. One that caught my eye is in the Baltimore-Cleveland game – who will score the first field goal at -112 for both teams. Here is where I see the game within the game. The Cleveland Browns have scored 17 or fewer points in five of their last six games, which means a lot of possessions coming up empty. The Baltimore Ravens have the best kicker in the NFL in Justin Tucker, and he is capable of hitting kicks from 60 yards. The odds are quietly stacked in his favor, because if he gets his chance, he rarely misses. Take the Ravens to kick the first field goal (-112).

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).