Tag: Dak Prescott

Even in defeat, Dak Prescott proved he is an elite NFL quarterback

He’s not the best QB in the league, but no players gives you more options.

Cowboys fans did not wake up Monday morning feeling very good about their football team after a frustrating 28-24 loss to the Vikings on Sunday night. But the knowledge that they have one of the very best quarterbacks in the NFL should help soothe that pain.

Even with Cowboys coaches doing everything in their power to blow the game, Dak Prescott was the story of the night. At least he should be. His numbers weren’t overly impressive: He completed 28-of-46 passes (60.9%) for 347 yards, three touchdowns and one pick. On a day where Lamar Jackson put up a perfect passer rating and took a Bengals player’s soul right on the field in a blowout win, what Prescott did might go under-appreciated by the media. That should not be the case. For me, it was the night Dak established himself as one of the NFL’s elite quarterbacks.

It was as complete a performance as I’ve seen from a quarterback since … well, maybe ever. There were highlight-reel throws downfield, shrewd pre-snap checks and protection changes, plays that required Prescott to exhaust his progressions while avoiding hits in the pocket and plenty examples of his ability to create outside of structure when a play breaks down. I don’t think I’m exaggerating when I say there are only two or three quarterbacks in the league capable of putting together such a comprehensive display of quarterbacking. It was an elite performance, which should not come as a shock since Prescott has been playing at an elite level all season — and for the majority of his short career.

That may sound reactionary, but Prescott has now played about three-and-a-half seasons in the NFL. He was an MVP candidate after an amazing rookie campaign. Things didn’t change over the first half of his sophomore season until his supporting cast was hit hard by injuries and a suspension to Ezekiel Elliott. Prescott was still playing well but his production had fallen off and that continued on into the 2018 season until the Amari Cooper trade reinvigorated the Cowboys offense. Since that move, Dallas has gotten MVP-level production from its quarterback.

So were talking about a 40-game sample size of Dak playing like an elite quarterback, including this entire season where he’s led the Cowboys to the league’s best offense, per Football Outsiders DVOA. He’s also leading the league in Ben Baldwin’s DAKOTA metric, which combines Expected Points Added and Completion Percentage over Expectation into one composite stat. He trails Russell Wilson in ESPN’s QBR by 0.1 points — and there’s a decent chance he ends the week on top with the Seahawks taking on one the league’s best pass defenses, the 49ers, on Monday night.

Prescott’s name is being left out of the MVP discussion because we’re still fixated on QB WINZ in 2019 and the Cowboys are sitting at 5-4 after the loss to Minnesota. It doesn’t help that there are still people out there who believe Ezekiel Elliott is the most important player on the offense and that the offensive line is still the dominant unit we last saw in 2016.

Last night’s performance should have convinced most people that none of those factors can reasonably be used to argue that Dak isn’t worthy of consideration for the MVP award. Let’s address them one-by-one…

  1. Prescott’s QBR for the night was 85.0. ESPN’s stat is designed to give you a rough estimate of how often you can expect a team to win based on the quarterback’s performance. So Prescott’s performance was good enough to win 85% of games. The loss — like most of Dallas’ losses this season — was not on him.
  2. This may have been Elliott’s worst game of the season. On 20 plays, Elliott produced an average EPA of -0.36. That means the Cowboys lost about 7.2 points on his touches alone. In a game decided by four points, that was the difference. Meanwhile, Prescott’s 48 plays added 27.36 points on Sunday night. The Cowboys scored 24 points.
  3. Prescott finished the night with the highest average time to throw of Week 10, per Next Gen Stats. The offensive line did its part, sure, but the quarterback did a lot of the work. Prescott was tinkering with the protections all night and navigated the pocket to avoid pressure. He bought himself all that time and capitalized on it when it was available. That’s a big accomplishment against a Mike Zimmer-coached defense.

Prescott was brilliant all night but two throws stood out to me above the rest. Both were gorgeous dimes that would have dropped jaws on their own, but it was the process leading up to the throws that were most impressive. The first was Dak’s fadeaway touchdown pass to Randall Cobb on a free play.

The throw is fit into the tightest of windows. That’s not an exaggeration. It was literally the tightest window we’ve seen on a touchdown pass all season.

But that play doesn’t happen if Prescott doesn’t call an audible before the ball is snapped. The Vikings are sending a six-man pressure, and Dak checks into the perfect play to beat it. I mean, this play has all of the characteristics of the ones we typically see from Canton-bound quarterbacks. You have the Manning-style change at the line of scrimmage. The Rodgers-esque awareness after the Vikings player jumps offsides. And then Brees-level precision on the throw. That is elite quarterback play.

That wasn’t even my favorite Dak play of the night. That distinction goes to this impossible throw to Cooper on third-and-12.

The Cowboys line holds up against the Vikings rush but, like Tom Brady, Prescott has to climb the pocket while looking for an open receiver. Cooper, who is tightly guarded, will have to do and Prescott lofts a perfectly-placed pass to his receiver for a first down. I still can’t believe he made that throw.

Prescott has been putting this high-level play on film all season and, yet, he still isn’t getting enough credit for developing into a complete quarterback. He’s not the best quarterback in the league, but I don’t know if there’s another one who opens up a playbook quite like he does. Prescott is accurate, poised in the pocket and comfortable outside of it, he’s got a strong arm that allows him to make any throw and he has total command of the Cowboys offense — before and after the snap. The Cowboys have never fully committed to it, but Prescott is also a factor in the run game when used on option plays.

There’s nothing you CAN’T do with Prescott behind center.

For whatever reason, the Cowboys have let him get to this deep into the final year of his rookie contract. That’s looking like a bigger and more costly mistake by the week. Many people — including myself — scoffed at Prescott’s reported contract demands of around $30 million a season. Now he’s the one doing the scoffing because that price just keeps going up, and Cowboys fans should be happy when Jerry Jones finally decides to pay it. There’s no such thing as overpaying for an elite quarterback.

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Cowboys’ 7 plays that changed the game in 28-24 loss to Vikings

A look back at the 7 biggest plays from the Cowboys’ 28-24 loss to the Vikings using EPA and WP metrics from nflscrapR.

The Dallas Cowboys might have suffered their worst loss of the season against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday night. The final score was 28-24, but the biggest takeaway from the game was the plethora of questionable play-calls and mismanaged opportunities. The Cowboys were clearly the better offensive team from a passing standpoint. However, the rushing attack they heavily relied on in the past was a non-factor against the Vikings, and ultimately, it might have been the driving force behind the daunting loss.

It was a game that featured plenty of explosive plays from both offenses. Here are the biggest plays that stood out in the game as measured by Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability with data via nflscrapR. EPA measures the value of a given play based on down, distance to first downs, field position and time remaining in the game.

The Plays

No. 1: Kirk Cousins pass short right to Dalvin Cook for 27 yards

EPA: 2.1. DAL WP Shift: 42% -> 35%

The Vikings’ first big play of the game came on simple screen pass to Cook. He managed to turn the short pass into an explosive 27 yard catch and run. Cousins was not asked to throw deep against the Cowboys, his average pass on Sunday traveled seven yards through the air. Instead he relied on Cook to generate yards after the catch. Cook totaled 109 yards after the catch and his ability to break tackles and create extra yardage was crucial for the Vikings.

This play would end with a facemask penalty from cornerback Chidobe Awuzie. The resulting catch and 15-yard penalty gave the Vikings field position at the Cowboys’ 10-yard line. They would eventually end the drive with a score, putting them up 7-0 early.

No. 2: Cousins pass short left to Cook for 30 yards

EPA: 2.1. DAL WP Shift: 21% -> 16%

Once again Cook showed why he is one of the best running backs in the NFL. He turned another short screen pass into a huge gain, this time for 30 yards. And much like his first big play this one also ended with a penalty for the Cowboys. A 14-yard roughing the passer call on DeMarcus Lawrence would result in a 44-yard gain for the Vikings.

The Vikings would end the drive with another touchdown. It was tight end Kyle Rudolph that would pick up his second score of the game with linebacker Sean Lee in coverage. The score was now 14-0, but the Cowboys have developed a reputation this season as a team that rallies later in games. This game was no different.

No. 3: Cousins sacked for a loss of 9 yards by Robert Quinn

EPA: -2.3. DAL WP Shift: 13% ->17%

To start the second quarter the Cowboys found themselves in a dire situation. The defense had struggled to contain Cook throughout the first quarter and they desperately needed a stop on third down. So it is no surprise that Quinn came up big for his team when it mattered most. The team needed momentum and Quinn was able to give it to them following this sack.

No. 4: Prescott pass deep right to Amari Cooper for 20 yards

EPA: 2.5. DAL WP Shift: 14% -> 19%

Due to some questionable play-calling on early downs the Cowboys faced plenty of third-and-long situations. Luckily for the Cowboys the combination of Prescott and Cooper has turned into on of the most dependable QB-WR tandems in the NFL. The duo consistently lifted the team in these tight situations, and on this play Cooper displayed his elite awareness skills with a toe drag catch.

No. 5: Prescott pass short left to Michael Gallup for 23 yards TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 2.9. DAL WP Shift: 19% -> 27%

The Cowboys’ offense finally got back on track in the second quarter. After an impressive 20-yard catch from Cooper, it was Gallup that would give the Cowboys their first score of the game. The Vikings were in zone coverage here, but it was a well designed offensive play that had linebacker Eric Kendricks covering Gallup down the middle of the field for the easy score.

No. 6: Prescott pass deep right to Randall Cobb for 22 yards TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 4.4. DAL WP Shift: 36% -> 49%

Late in the first half the Cowboy were presented with a scoring opportunity. From the 22-yard line the expected points from this part of the field was 2.6. Even so, the Cowboys were not looking to enter half-time with a field goal. The team would even the score at 14-14 on a free play as the defense was called for an offside penalty.

Prescott’s improvisation skills came in handy on the explosive pass play and Cobb showed great focus in making the catch. Cobb had his best game as a Cowboy as he accounted for 106 yards, six receptions and a touchdown.

No. 7: Prescott pass deep right to Cooper for 12 yards TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 2.4. DAL WP Shift: 44% -> 51%

The duo of Prescott and Cooper connected on plenty of immaculate catches on the night, but this one by far was the most impressive. This play was a pass with some jet-action from RB Tony Pollard. Prescott rolled out to his right as Cooper ran a comeback route. The ball placement essentially left Cooper in a spot that was impossible to defend. But the accuracy from Prescott was also uncanny.

Where do Cowboys go from here?

It was a tough loss for the Cowboys as Prescott put on another MVP-caliber performance. They lost to a good team, but it did not have to be that way. There were plenty of opportunities to seize the game, but it was the coaching staff that came up short with a game plan that featured plenty of runs on first-and-10. All night the Cowboys had struggled to establish the run. Passing on the other hand was a completely different story. Much like they have all season, the Cowboys have possessed on of the best passing offenses in the league through 10 weeks of football.

Right now the biggest question marks come from the Cowboys’ defensive side of the ball. What has been concerning is the team’s never ending battle  against the run despite being at full strength on the defensive front. Even the pass defense has suffered as of late, as Awuzie has failed to take a major leap in his game now in his third year in the league. Overall, the Cowboys do have the talent and the right personnel to compete for a Super Bowl, but reality has not lined up with the expectations for the 2019 season.

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11 Takeaways: Cowboys run narrative into ground, pass on path to victory

The Cowboys yet again failed to get the job done against another top-team, falling 28-24 to the Minnesota Vikings.

The Cowboys can’t seem to do themselves any favors, once again starting slow and digging themselves into a hole which ultimately did them in. They were down two touchdowns before the first quarter ended, but managed to briefly take the lead 21-20 halfway through the third quarter.

Unfortunately, they yet again found themselves on the wrong end of a shootout against one of the better teams in the league. Dallas fell, 28-24, to the Minnesota Vikings, dropping their record to 5-4 on the season. It was a game they rarely looked like things would go their way.

It was over when . . .

. . . Eric Kendricks broke up Dak Prescott’s attempt on 4th and 5 from the Minnesota 14. The Cowboys looked to be in the catbird seat, having drove from their own six to the Minnesota 11, but two Ezekiel Elliott runs pushed them back, and against the wall. Unfortunately, Prescott couldn’t bail them out, after playing so well for the entire game.

Game balls

WR Amari Cooper

It’s impossible to overstate how much Cooper transformed this offense. He had another monster night, catching 11 passes for 147 yards and one touchdown. He was able to showcase everything against the Vikings secondary, but his dramatic sideline toe-taps were the plays that really stood out.

QB Dak Prescott

The best season of Prescott’s career took another step, as he put up a valiant effort in yet another comeback that fell just short. He took it upon himself to throw Dallas back into the game, fearlessly throwing into tight windows and converting third down after third down.

In the end, he threw for 397 yards on 28 of 46 pass attempts, three touchdowns, and one interception (on the last play of the game, a heave into the end zone). The results haven’t been there yet, but these moments and games will soon pay off in the last half of the season.

WR Randall Cobb

It’s been a tough go for the former Packer, but Cobb was able to put together a really nice game, joining Cooper in eclipsing 100 receiving yards (106 on six catches), a feat he accomplished for the first time this season. His beautiful 22-yard touchdown grab at the end of the second quarter made up for the many near-misses that have marred the first half of his season.

Key stat: 2.35

Ezekiel Elliott entered the game averaging 4.7 yards-per-carry this season, yet registered only 2.35 YPC against Minnesota. That didn’t stop the Cowboys from running him 20 times however. The run game was atrocious and entirely unhelpful, seemingly costing the team big, especially considering how well they were able to throw the ball. As a team, they recorded only 50 rushing yards, the second-lowest total of the season (45 in Week 4 vs New Orleans).

Quick takes:

  • As poorly as the Cowboys ran the ball, it was the opposite story for Minnesota. Vikings RB Dalvin Cook rumbled all over the Dallas defense, reminiscent of C.J. Anderson’s performance against them in the playoffs last year. In total, the Vikings ran for 156 total yards, Cook responsible for 97 of them.If only Dallas had a highly-drafted defensive tackle to plug the middle of the defensive line.
  • The Cowboys possess one of the more unique weapons in the NFL in the leg of K Brett Maher. Unfortunately tonight, it seemed to cost them points, as Jason Garrett decided to try a 57-yard field goal that missed badly. It set up Minnesota with a short field, who had no problems marching 53-yards on their first drive of the game to go up 7-0. Situational football has been a problem for the Cowboys this season, and this was yet another example of this team holding itself back..
  • Minnesota’s Kyle Rudolph only had 14 receiving yards, but he was a huge difference maker, scoring two touchdowns and picking up a two-point conversion. His success against the Cowboys secondary was unfortunately unsurprising and predictable, as they’ve seemed to have a lot of trouble containing TEs this season.

  • The Dallas offense converted more than half of their third down opportunities (9 of 15, 60%), which normally leads to success. Unfortunately, the Vikings essentially matched them, converting 8 of 14 third downs (57%).
  • Perhaps the most frustrating and inexplicable moment of the game occurred when WR Tavon Austin signaled for a fair catch despite having tons of real estate in front of him at the end of the game. Minnesota was giving the ball back to the Cowboys, punting from their own 10-yard line with 24 seconds left. If there was ever a time for for Austin to have his signature moment with Dallas, this seemed like it. Apparently, the coaches didn’t let him try.

  • The Cowboys are now tied for first place in the NFC East at 5-4. They’ll try to again separate themselves from the Philadelphia against another NFC North opponent next week in the Detroit Lions, who are 3-5-1.