Tag: Curtis Samuel

Panthers retooling, not rebuilding: What it means for 2020

According to Charles Robinson at Yahoo Sports, Carolina general manager Marty Hurney will aim towards a “mixed reboot” rather than a total rebuild.

Good news, Carolina Panthers fans! Your team won’t stink this year. . . . Well, at least they won’t deliberately try to stink as part of a total rebuild.

According to Charles Robinson at Yahoo Sports, Carolina general manager Marty Hurney will aim towards a “mixed reboot” rather than a total rebuild. That “everyone is on the table” sentiment, which was their reported approach heading into the scouting combine two weeks ago, is gone. So, what does a reboot look like as opposed to a good old-fashioned blow-the-whole-thing-up scenario?

For one, your Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey jerseys won’t be outdated for the upcoming season (assuming that still happens). The roster’s key pieces who aren’t about to become free agents will likely all remain in place. That should include defensive tackle Kawann Short, wide receivers Curtis Samuel and D.J. Moore, safety Eric Reid and linebacker Shaq Thompson, who is just three months moved from inking a four-year, $54.2 million extension.

The try-to-compete-in-2020 mode also jives with their recent acquisition of left tackle Russell Okung. One season of Okung, who is on an expiring contract, is arguably more valuable than one year of right guard Trai Turner given the importance of blindside protection as well as Turner’s recent regression.

Additionally, Carolina’s crop of young up-and-comers isn’t far from hitting their stride. Outside linebacker Brian Burns, cornerback Donte Jackson, tight end Ian Thomas and right tackle Taylor Moton – to name a few – have all flashed signs of promise and are primed to begin contributing more. Those players should all be returning in 2020.

Now that they’ve decided not to blow it all up, the front office’s main challenge is reconstructing a much-depleted defense, one that was already embarrassing this past year.

As of right now, they’ll only have approximately $30 million in cap space and a few high-end draft picks, headlined by No. 7 overall selection, to either bring back or help replace the likes of cornerback James Bradberry, defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, pass rushers Mario Addison and Bruce Irvin and of course retired linebacker Luke Kuechly. It will probably take more than just one year to accomplish.

In the meantime, this sheds more light on two other key pieces inside the organization.

First, the team will very likely allow Cam Newton to play out the final year of his contract. This lets them reevaluate their commitment to the soon-to-be 31-year-old quarterback. If Newton heals up and returns to his former MVP form, then they’ll already have their franchise QB and won’t have to go through a potentially long and painful process of finding another. All they’d have to do is extend him.

Secondly, this reveals not every part of the Panthers’ brass is on the same page. Hurney, whose deal only runs through 2020, is on a mission to compete now and extend his shelf life in Charlotte. New head coach Matt Rhule, though, has been given a lucrative seven-year blessing from owner David Tepper to build up a winning organization “the right way.”

The mixed signals continue.

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Panthers QB Kyle Allen ranked No. 32 in deep ball accuracy

It gets worse.

The Panthers have re-signed a handful of players so far in 2020. They have been exclusive rights free agents like defensive end Efe Obada, running back Reggie Bonnafon, kicker Joey Slye and defensive back Cole Luke.

One ERFA who we haven’t seen extended yet is Kyle Allen, who somehow became one of the most divisive quarterbacks in the NFL this past year. Thanks to Cam Newton’s season-ending Lisfranc injury, Allen was thrust into a role he wasn’t quite ready for. He won his first four starts despite not having played particularly well and certain portions of the media crowned him Carolina’s next franchise quarterback.

Water has a way of finding its own level eventually and Allen’s performance quickly bottomed out. He lost seven of his next eight starts and then got benched in favor of the rookie Will Grier.

To his credit, Allen handled the situation like a true professional and flashed a healthy competitive instinct that will serve him well in his career. However, he should never have been asked to carry a team for 12 games at this point in his development.

The most agonizing part of watching Allen struggle in 2019 were the infamous “missed opportunities” in the vertical passing game. Wide receivers Curtis Samuel and D.J. Moore suffered the most and both ranked among the lowest catchable deep-ball rates for any receiver in the league.

It gets worse.

According to the 2019-2020 Deep Ball Project, Allen ranked No. 32 in deep ball accuracy, completing just 11 of 41 attempts (26.83%) of 21+ yards.

“Charting Allen was difficult to do not just because his accuracy was the worst of any quarterback on this year’s Deep Ball Project, but also because of how he was missing receivers. When targeting open receivers, the other 31 quarterbacks had an accuracy percentage of at least 45.45 percent. Allen struggled to even hit 35 percent of his deep passes to open receivers.”

While it’s true Allen’s offensive line didn’t do him many favors during his run as a starter, even when the pass protection held up he didn’t do much better. Allen was 11/31 from a clean pocket (35.48%).

The deadline for teams to extend exclusive rights free agents is April 17. Re-signing Allen will only cost a pittance, but the fact that they haven’t done so already is not a positive indicator for his future with the team.

At the other end of the spectrum, Cardinals rookie Kyler Murray ranked No. 1 in this area, hitting 25 of his 49 long attempts. Murray finished the year on a strong note and we’re expecting a major breakout from him in 2020.

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Inside the Stats: Wide Receivers

Inside the stats for wide receivers

Wide receivers are impacted by the offensive scheme they play in and of course, the quality of their quarterback. Their total numbers are greatly aided playing in an offense that has to (or at least wants to) throw the ball a lot. Michael Thomas on the Ravens would still be very good. But he probably would not be catching 149 passes if he played for the Ravens. These metrics are very interesting in assessing player talent and value since they measure characteristics outside of just catches and yards. Particularly when a receiver is young and still improving. Having a great quarterback is a tremendous advantage for generating stats, but that doesn’t matter much when considering yards after catch, broken tackles and drops.

Notable Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown – The rookie came on strong for the Titans with Ryan Tannehill as the starter and his measurables attest to just how good he was. His 20.1 yards per catch was tops and he ranked among the best at almost every category. Barring some unforeseen change to their offense, Brown looks like everyone’s sleeper pick for 2020.

Chris Godwin – He was a delightful surprise last year taking advantage of not being Mike Evans but he clearly did plenty on his own – not just enjoying lesser coverage. He was sure-handed with top marks in all areas and was more reliable than almost any other receiver.

Amari Cooper – He’s angling for a big payday and he had several nice showings. But compared to other wideouts, Cooper’s only top mark was how far down the field he caught the ball – not what he did with it after the catch.

Curtis Samuel – Another receiver that some expect to be a sleeper. But he did not rank highly in anything and troublesome were his drops and low yards after the catch. His 51% catch rate ranked dead last among 50-catch receivers.

Deebo Samuel – The rookie had a promising season that started slowly and his lower marks came from the short passing scheme and a higher number of dropped passes. But Samuel improved during the season and ended up with a 70% catch rate and rated great in yards after catch (8.3) and broken tackles (7).

Julian Edelman –  He contended with injuries during the season but it was still disappointing to see him with the highest drops and one of the lowest yards after the catch. Maybe Edelman is getting old. Maybe Tom Brady is not throwing the same ball.

Mohamed Sanu – Bad marks across the board. Are we sure Tom Brady still has it?

Terry McLaurin – The rookie was effective on a bad offense and even ranked highly in yards per catch.

Tyler Lockett – His 75% catch rate was second only to the pass sponge Michael Thomas. And he only dropped two passes all year.

4 Panthers players who deserve contract extensions in 2020

The Carolina Panthers have at least a dozen difficult personnel decisions to make this year.

The Carolina Panthers have at least a dozen difficult personnel decisions to make this year. The hardest one may be what to do with starting outside cornerback James Bradberry, who is set to become a free agent in March. Bradberry is the team’s best cornerback but that’s a very low bar and keeping him around might cost a lot of salary cap space – and there’s not much to go around.

Bradberry’s fate is debatable. It might make sense to trade or franchise tag him. We honestly don’t know what direction the franchise will choose with Bradberry, especially with a new coaching staff coming in.

However, there are a few players who definitely deserve extensions this offseason. Here are four of them.

OT Taylor Moton

Taylor Moton
Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Carolina’s offensive line has been a mess more often than not over the last few years. The exception to that rule has been right tackle Taylor Moton, who has generally been the team’s most consistent lineman and is the best aside from Trai Turner. Moton is solid blocking for the run and protecting the quarterback. If the Panthers don’t pay him now and Moton performs well in 2020, his price tag could grow beyond their means.

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Steven Sims Jr. can become highly successful under new OC Scott Turner

Turner had great success in Carolina when fitting his gameplan to a player’s talents, which bodes well for Sims’ increasing role on offense.

One of the biggest issues for the Washington Redskins over the past several years is their inability to match the offensive scheme with offensive personnel. While the talent on the roster may have been able to play things out one way, the offense was often catered to a different type of playstyle.

With Kevin O’Connell as the play-caller in 2019, that started to change a little bit, and we will likely see is continue under Scott Turner, the Redskins’ newest offensive coordinator.

In his brief time as the OC with the Carolina Panthers, Turner was able to take the same problem and find a solution that fit his personnel. One of the best examples of how he did so regards wide receiver Curtis Samuel, who is a dynamic player when he gets the ball in his hands. Before Turner took over the play-calling duties, Samuel was often sent on deep routes where he could gain separation from the defense, but the quarterback was unable to get him the ball. Turner switched the mentality of the offense to get Samuel the ball out of the backfield and let him do what he does best — make people miss.

“He understands where his players win,” RotoWorld’s Josh Norris said of Turner, via NBC Sports Washington. “If they’re not getting the ball enough, [Turner] seems willing to draw up plays each and every week to get his players the ball.”

It’s hard to think of anyone other than Steven Sims Jr. when trying to picture who will benefit the most from Turner’s addition to the coaching staff. Sims is a bit of an anomaly, as he was the last player to make the team in 2019 after being signed as an undrafted free agent, and his talents on the kick-off return team impressed the coaching staff so much that they gave him a role in the offense. After getting him the ball a few times in the quick passing game, Sims showed how special he can really be, finishing his rookie season with over 300 yards receiving and four touchdowns.

We started to see O’Connell gameplan around Sims a bit near the end of the 2019 season, as he tried to get the ball to him in space and let the rookie go to work. It was highly successful. Now, we will get a chance to see Turner continue down the same path with Sims in year two, and hopefully help him realize much more offensive success.

Who knows, he may just turn Sims into the next Curtis Samuel.

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PFF names Panthers WR Curtis Samuel a 2020 breakout candidate

Pro Football Focus seems to agree. They have named Samuel the breakout candidate at the wide receiver position for the 2020 season.

Panthers wide receiver Curtis Samuel finished the 2019 season with 54 catches, 627 receiving yards and six touchdowns.

Considering the quarterbacks he had to work with most of the year, those numbers are pretty impressive. If he ever connects with a healthy QB and a creative play-caller who are able to take advantage of his skill-set, Samuel may yet turn into one of the league’s elite wide receivers.

Pro Football Focus seems to agree. They have named Samuel the breakout candidate at the wide receiver position for the 2020 season.

“Just 62% of Samuel’s targets were catchable; that was the lowest rate of the 26 wide receivers who saw at least 100 targets in 2019. Either a healthy Cam Newton at quarterback or an acquisition from outside the organization who could take advantage of Samuel’s 4.3 speed would be a major bump to his expectation in 2020.”

If any of this sounds familiar, it’s probably because we and other outlets predicted Samuel would breakout in 2019.

Remember, last summer Samuel was regularly burning Carolina’s defensive backs for long touchdowns. He did the same to a top-notch Bills secondary when they came to visit for joint practices.

Unfortunately, Cam Newton’s foot injury put him on the shelf for the year and his backups proved unable to find Samuel on those deep passes.

Samuel’s success depends a great deal on who plays quarterback and how well he’s protected. One positive development is the arrival of Joe Brady as offensive coordinator, though. His scheme should offer Samuel and Carolina’s other play-makers more opportunities to do what they do best.

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Should Jets be worried about Robby Anderson’s Matt Rhule connection?

The Jets should not be worried about Robby Anderson reuniting with his former college coach, Matt Rhule with the Carolina Panthers.

The Jets may have some competition with the Carolina Panthers for the services of Robby Anderson once free agency rolls around.

Matt Rhule was hired to be the Panthers’ new head coach on Tuesday. Anderson, set to hit the open market, played under Rhule while the two were at Temple together. During exit interviews last week, Anderson was asked about the possibility of reuniting with his former college head coach in the NFL and wasn’t opposed to it.

“That wouldn’t be a bad option,” Anderson said.

However, the Panthers don’t really have a need for a wide receiver. They have two young wideouts in D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel that have a ton of promise. Meanwhile, Carolina only has about $30 million in cap space, so unless the Panthers feel the need to add a high-priced vertical threat, then a reunion between Anderson and Rhule seems unlikely.

So that’s one potential suitor the Jets probably don’t have to worry about competing against.

In two seasons under Rhule at Temple, Anderson recorded 1,730 receiving yards and 16 total touchdowns.

Now, he is set to be an unrestricted free agent for the first time in his career. He is coming off a 779-yard season with five touchdowns and is expected to receive in the range of $13-15 million annually. Anderson has already said he will not give the Jets a hometown discount.

In terms of the Panthers, though, the Jets shouldn’t feel threatened by them unless Rhule goes out of his way to make it a priority to sign Anderson in free agency. Even then, it’s hard to imagine the Panthers will meet Anderson’s price tag.

Panthers WR Curtis Samuel (knee) expected to play vs. Colts

Curtis Samuel will play Sunday.

Carolina Panthers wide receiver Curtis Samuel popped up on the injury report during the middle of the week but is expected to play against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Currently listed as questionable for the Week 16 matchup, Samuel will give it a go on Sunday after a knee injury forced him to miss practice on Friday. He was a full participant on Wednesday and a limited participant on Thursday.

Regardless, the third-year wideout appears to be active for Sunday’s game, per Ian Rapoport of NFL Network.

Samuel enters this matchup with 50 receptions for 597 yards and six receiving touchdowns. He’s also added 17 carries for 126 yards and a rushing touchdown on the season.

The Colts are allowing the 12th-most receiving yards per game (264.3) to opposing offenses while allowing the seventh-most receiving touchdowns (26) in the NFL.

Samuel should draw a solid matchup with Kenny Moore being ruled out with an ankle injury. This means he will line up against rookie Marvell Tell in the slot, which should be favorable for the Panthers’ speedy wideout.

Inactives will be released an hour and a half before kickoff, but it appears Samuel will be suiting up.

Matt Paradis questionable, Curtis Samuel expected to play vs. Colts

Panthers center Matt Paradis questionable, Curtis Samuel expected to play vs. Colts.

At this time of the season, every NFL team is banged up and the Carolina Panthers are no exception to the rule. Throw in the typical seasonal sickness and you’ve got a very short-handed team.

On Saturday, the team announced that defensive tackle Woodrow Hamilton has been ruled out due to an illness. Center Matt Paradis also came down sick but did not have an official designation. Late last night, that changed. Paradis is now listed as questionable for today’s game.

If Paradis can’t play, the most likely candidate to take his spot at center is Tyler Larsen, who started 13 games in the absence of Ryan Kalil from 2017-2018 and did well.

In related news, wide receiver Curtis Samuel is also listed as questionable with a knee injury. Ian Rapoport at NFL Network says he’s expected to play.

Samuel has caught 50 passes this season, totaling 597 receiving yards and scoring six touchdowns.

Those numbers could be a lot higher if Kyle Allen had been able to connect with him on deep balls with any consistency. One key factor for the Panthers will be if rookie QB Will Grier is able to do any better.

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Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Sunday’s Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts sports betting odds and lines, with Week 16 NFL betting picks, tips and bets.

The Carolina Panthers (5-9) and Indianapolis Colts (6-8) tangle at Lucas Oil Stadium Sunday at 1 p.m. ET (on CBS). We analyze the Panthers-Colts sports betting odds and lines, with NFL betting picks and tips for the Week 16 matchup.

Panthers at Colts: Week 16 preview, betting trends and notes

Get some action on the game at BetMGM by placing a sports bet!

  • The Panthers turn to rookie QB Will Grier for his first NFL start.
  • The Colts enter on a four-game losing skid, while going 0-2-1 ATS across the past three games, and 2-5-1 ATS over the previous eight.
  • Indianapolis is 2-2 straight up and 1-3 ATS across the past four games at Lucas Oil Stadium.
  • Colts QB Jacoby Brissett and the offense was limited to a season-low seven points – scored late in the fourth quarter – in Monday’s ugly 34-7 loss at the New Orleans Saints.
  • The Colts defense is allowing 34.3 points per game across the past three outings as the Over has hit in two of those contests.
  • Indianapolis ranks ninth in the NFL against the run, allowing just 100.9 yards per game. That will be a key matchup, as they try and slow down Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey.

Panthers at Colts: Key injuries

Panthers: WR Curtis Samuel (knee) is questionable, while LB Sha’Quille Thompson (ankle) and DT Vernon Butler (illness) are out.

Colts: DT Denico Autry (concussion), CB Kenny Moore II (ankle), CB Quincy Wilson (shoulder) S Malik Hooker (hand) are out.

Panthers at Colts: Odds, betting lines and prediction

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 1:30 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Colts 23, Panthers 20

Moneyline (?)

The Colts (-286) are heavily favored at home, but if you can trust their offense after what you saw last week, you have a lot more betting chutzpah than I do. The Panthers are +225.

New to sports betting? Every $2.86 wagered on the Colts ML will profit $1 if they win.

Against the Spread (?)

The PANTHERS (+7.5, -143) haven’t been playing well, but they’ll have the best player on the field in McCaffrey. He will be a difference maker and will help take a huge amount of pressure off of Grier in the QB’s first NFL start.

Every $1.43 wagered on the Panthers here will profit $1 if they don’t lose by 8 or more points or win outright.

Over/Under (?)

PASS. The total of 45.5 (-125 Over, +105 Under) is too close to call in this one. There are a lot of unknowns with Grier running the show, along with the Colts offense looking pretty shabby last week. If there is a lean, it’s to the Under – but ever so slightly.

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