Panthers’ skill players among 5 fastest groups in the NFL
If the 2019 season taught us anything, it reinforced how important it is to have speed at the skill positions. The Chiefs’ dominance during their Super Bowl run was powered in large part by their ability to simply blow their opponents away with speed. While the Panthers can’t match Kansas City’s overall talent, this is one area they compare well in.
According to Daniel Jeremiah at NFL.com, Carolina’s offensive skill position players in 11 personnel are among the five fastest in the league right now based on 40-yard dash times.
We pulled 40 times for every team in the league and projected their lineup in 11 personnel (1RB, 1TE & 3WR) for 2020 season. Here are the 5 fastest groups in the league: pic.twitter.com/Ap7soqpnJs
Here’s how those 40-yard dash times break down for each player.
RB Christian McCaffrey: 4.48 seconds
WR D.J. Moore: 4.42 seconds
WR Curtis Samuel: 4.31 seconds
WR Robby Anderson: 4.36 seconds
TE Ian Thomas: 4.74 seconds
Good stuff.
If Carolina’s front line improves dramatically in pass protection and Joe Brady can unleash Teddy Bridgewater’s more aggressive instincts, this offense is going to surprise a lot of people.
Here are three ways that Hurney can create some more cap space.
The Panthers made a critical addition to their roster last week, signing former Saints and Giants cornerback Eli Apple.
At just one year and $3 million, it’s a bargain of a deal. However, that contract took up most of the team’s remaining salary cap space for the year. They now have just a little more than $250,000 left for the 2020 season.
The team-building work is not finished yet, either. While there are 90 players currently on the roster, general manager Marty Hurney told WFNZ last week that defensive tackle and offensive line were the top priorities after adding a veteran cornerback. Now that Apple is in the fold, the team can move on to the last few remaining positions of need.
If they’re going to sign anybody they’ll have to move some money around, though. Here are three ways that Hurney can create some more cap space. (All cap estimates are via Over the Cap).
According to Pro Football Reference, the Panthers dropped 33 passes last season, the fifth-most in the NFL.
The Carolina Panthers are in for a tough time in 2020. Their roster is one of the weakest in the league, so even if they benefit from brilliant coaching by Matt Rhule and the rest of his staff it’s extremely unlikely they’ll have a winning record or compete for a playoff spot.
On the bright side, there are some solid playmakers at the offensive skill positions. While the situation at tight end is thin, they’re relatively loaded at wide receiver and running back. Pro Football Focus has Carolina’s receiver group ranked No. 8 in the league.
While this is the strongest part of the roster, they’re far from perfect. One area they’ll need to work on is drops, which were a significant problem in 2019. According to Pro Football Reference, the Panthers dropped 33 passes last season, the fifth-most in the NFL.
Here’s how they broke down.
WR Jarius Wright: eight (13.8% drop rate)
WR Curtis Samuel: seven (6.7% drop rate)
RB Christian McCaffrey: seven (4.9% drop rate)
WR D.J. Moore: four (3% drop rate)
TE Greg Olsen: three (3.7% drop rate)
TE Ian Thomas: three (10% drop rate)
RB Reggie Bonnafon: one (11.1% drop rate)
Not ideal. We’re predicting an improvement this year, though.
First, the worst offender last year was obviously Wright, who previously had been a reliable target on third down if nothing else. His 2020 option was declined so they won’t have his drop rate holding them back.
There’s also a lot of variance with this stat, so even if Wright was still around it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect the numbers to bounce back in the team’s favor this coming season.
For example, seven drops for McCaffrey was a lot but the previous year he only had one, per Pro Football Reference. PFF actually counted zero on 124 targets. Samuel should also benefit from the law of averages. He only dropped two passes during the 2018 season – a much more respectable 3.1% drop rate.
The one we’re most concerned about is Thomas, who may see his role grow more than any other starter on offense this season. Drops have been an issue for him since coming into the league – he dropped three balls in 2018 on 49 targets, a relatively high 6.1%. Thomas has flashed after the catch and has the athleticism to become a legitimate weapon, but until he cleans up this part of his game it will be difficult for him to reach his potential.
Overall expect fewer drops, especially if Thomas can cut his down.
The Buccaneers and the Chiefs came in at the top of PFF’s list, followed by the Cowboys.
The strongest position group for the Carolina Panthers in 2020 is their wide receiver corps. They won’t be judged based on how deep they are compared to the rest of the roster, though. What matters is how capable their passing weapons are compared to other NFL teams.
According to Pro Football Focus this is a strong group. They just released their rankings of every receiver corps in the league this year and Carolina’s came in at No. 8 on their list. Here’s what they said.
“D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel provide a nice one-two punch, and the addition of Robby Anderson only strengthens the group. Anderson dealt with shaky accuracy downfield in New York, but he has earned a whopping 112 targets 20 or more yards downfield since 2016 (fifth in NFL). Add in Christian McCaffrey — the most valuable running back in the NFL since 2017 in terms of PFF WAR largely because of his contributions as a receiver — and the Panthers receiving corps sticks out as the strength of their team.”
The Buccaneers and the Chiefs came in at the top of PFF’s list, followed by the Cowboys.
While it’s hard to deny that those teams have more firepower overall (especially when we’re counting tight ends as PFF has) these Panthers probably could have ranked a little higher in our opinion.
Teams like the Lions (No. 7), and Saints (No. 4) have formidable two-headed monsters, but for our money there’s no better 1-2-3 at wide receiver in the NFL right now than D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel and Robby Anderson. Carolina also has the best pass-catching running back in football by far, so eight seems just a little low.
What might be holding them down is a lack of a playmaker at tight end. Ian Thomas is no Greg Olsen and his drop rate is a major concern if he’s going to have a significant role in Joe Brady’s new offense. Thomas needs to soften his hands and develop into a stud receiver or else the team will have to find another way to upgrade at this spot.
If they do, their receiver group (WR/RB/TE) can compete with anybody’s.
Here are three Carolina players who could get dealt before the draft ends.
The Panthers say they aren’t interested in trading wide receiver Curtis Samuel. According to Ian Rapoport, they keep getting calls about him though and there’s a chance they may get an offer that’s too good to refuse.
Samuel isn’t the only one who might be on the trade block today. Here are three Carolina players who could get dealt before the draft ends.
WR Curtis Samuel
(Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
Samuel may be criminally underrated. That doesn’t mean the Panthers shouldn’t consider dealing him if they get an offer sweet enough. While offensive coordinator Joe Brady wants as many passing weapons as he can get, the team is already pretty loaded at wide receiver and they can pick up another good one on Day 3 of the draft. If there’s no plan to give Samuel a long-term contract extension, this is probably the best time to trade him.
According to a report by Ian Rapoport at NFL Network, teams have been consistently calling the Panthers about making a deal for Samuel.
Panthers wide receiver Curtis Samuel has been the subject of trade speculation ever since he entered the NFL. This offseason, that hasn’t changed as he’s frequently been brought up as a potential trade target for practically every wide receiver-needy team around the league.
So far, Carolina has not shown any interest in dealing Samuel. The last we heard on this subject was the end of March, when the Athletic reported the team wasn’t looking to trade him.
That won’t stop other teams from trying, though.
According to a report by Ian Rapoport at NFL Network, teams have been consistently calling the Panthers about making a deal for Samuel.
The #Panthers have been open to deals this offseason, and here is a name to watch: WR Curtis Samuel. Teams have been consistently calling about the former 2nd round pick, and we’ll see if they get an offer they can’t refuse over the next two days.
It’s not hard to see why teams want Samuel. His numbers may not suggest superstar potential, but his work on the field does. Samuel is one of the game’s most underrated deep threats and route runners. If he ever is able to hook up with a quarterback who has an accurate long ball he could easily post 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns a season.
The Panthers seem to know his value though, which is why they have rebuffed these efforts to date.
If they are going to change their mind and trade Samuel, this seems like an ideal time, though. The 2020 draft class is very deep at the wide receiver position and they could land a playmaker as late as Day 3.
Remember, Samuel is entering the final year of his rookie deal. Keeping him around makes sense but the fact that they gave Christian McCaffrey an extension before Samuel suggests they may not be sold on giving him a long-term deal. If they’re not 100% sold on keeping him, trading Samuel now and getting something is better than losing him in free agency next spring.
The Panthers are reportedly accepting calls for WR Curtis Samuel, and moving him to Washington could make a lot of sense going forward.
The #Panthers have been open to deals this offseason, and here is a name to watch: WR Curtis Samuel. Teams have been consistently calling about the former 2nd round pick, and we’ll see if they get an offer they can’t refuse over the next two days.
According to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, the Carolina Panthers are reportedly open to trading 2019 breakout WR Curtis Samuel during the 2020 NFL Draft. While nothing official has come out yet, the team has been fielding calls on the former second-round pick and trying to find a deal that they can’t refuse.
So should the Washington Redskins make such a deal? Before you dismiss it completely, consider the fit if it were to happen. Samuel, who has 11 touchdowns over the last two seasons, had a great year in Carolina’s offense during 2019, playing under Ron Rivera and Scott Turner, both of whom are now in Washington. The Redskins also have a dire need at the WR position, and pairing a burner like Samuel next to Terry McLaurin and Steven Sims could be lethal.
A couple arguments against this move would be that giving up draft capital for Samuel is counterproductive for the Redskins, as they are currently trying to increase their haul of picks via trade of Trent Williams, not give picks away. Adding Samuel to the Washington offense may also be unnecessary, as Sims is already a young speedster who is expected to occupy a role similar to what Samuel had with the Panthers last year.
Nonetheless, the news that this impressive, young WR is on the market should make a few ears prick up in Washington. He could soon be on the move, and a trip to D.C. isn’t completely out of the question.
If you are wondering why this is a thing, Samuel’s name has been circulating as a potential trade target for some teams ever since Carolina signed former Jets wide receiver Robby Anderson last week. The thinking is that the Panthers may feel deep enough at this position to let somebody go. There’s no evidence to suggest any teams have actually inquired about Samuel, though. As far as we can tell, this is one of those purely media-driven narratives.
It makes sense to suggest it, though. Samuel is entering the last year of his rookie contract and is one of the league’s most underrated receivers. However, it appears the Panthers are aware of that and have no plans to trade him away. Injuries, medical issues and poor quarterback play have all driven down Samuel’s numbers to some extent. However, he has still managed an extremely impressive touchdown rate and may yet show he’s capable of elite production given enough opportunities.
Whether Samuel will have a better rapport with Teddy Bridgewater than Kyle Allen or Will Grier remains to be seen. One thing that’s clear is under offensive coordinator Joe Brady the plan is to continue the four and five receiver sets he used so often at LSU last season. So far, Carolina has signed Anderson plus Keith Kirkwood, Seth Roberts and Pharoh Cooper. They also re-signed DeAndrew White, bringing the total number of wide receivers on the roster to 10.
While the Roberts signing was a bit of a head-scratcher ($3.75 million for one year), building up at this spot is a good idea. Truth be told, Newton never really had a great wide receiver corps to work with during his time in Carolina. By contrast, Bridgewater is being set up to succeed in this area.
Starting with D.J. Moore and going all the way down to Ishmael Hyman, this is one of the deepest receiver rooms in football right now.
Curtis Samuel would be a nice addition to the WR room.
The Indianapolis Colts have a big need at the wide receiver position and even though they already made a trade earlier this offseason, would it make sense for them to explore the chance to get Curtis Samuel from the Carolina Panthers?
After the Panthers signed vertical threat Robby Anderson to a two-year deal in free agency, there is plenty of talk that Samuel could be on the trading block. This is especially true when considering Anderson and Samuel have similar skill sets.
At 23 years old, Samuel has flashed for the Panthers but hasn’t quite broken out. His lack of major progression in 2019, his second season, should be attributed more to the quarterback play he had to endure throughout the campaign.
But Samuel can be a great addition to the wide receiver corps. It would just be a matter of whether Chris Ballard wants to part ways with another draft pick after already doing so this offseason. In short, he probably doesn’t. But there are reasons to believe it might be worth it.
Though he finished the season with 54 receptions for 627 yards and six touchdowns, there was plenty of production left on the field due to his quarterback play.
Samuel was a strong downfield threat for the Panthers in 2019. He had 27 deep-passing targets (20 yards or more), per Pro Football Focus. That’s tied for 10th-most in the NFL. Sounds like he should have been productive right?
Well, Pro Football Focus also has Samuel as having five catchable deep targets. Five. That goes to show that while he’s getting open downfield, his quarterbacks are failing him miserably.
Samuel also has game-breaking speed, something the Colts are in desperate search of. He ran the 40-yard dash in 4.31 seconds, and that speed shows up on the field. He can work on deep routes with Philip Rivers or work underneath stretching the field horizontally like Frank Reich likes to do.
There are some concerns with Samuels. He does tend to suffer some drops. That should certainly be noted in his evaluation. At the same time, though, the Colts have been willing to look past issues with drops if they feel the upside outweighs that aspect of their game.
For Samuel, that is certainly the case. His overall skill set is worth working through the drops.
What type of compensation would be needed isn’t clear. Samuel was a second-round pick. The Panthers have no leverage so they aren’t getting that back. A third-rounder is likely too rich for Ballard but if the Panthers settle on a Day 3 selection, the Colts should smash the accept button.
Though it is unlikely that Ballard makes a move for Samuel, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to check the price of the 23-year-old. If it’s reasonable, he would add a solid dynamic to an offense that needs explosiveness in the wide receiver room.
Anderson heads to the Carolina Panthers, but did he destroy his fantasy football value with one stroke of a pen?
(Brad Penner, USA TODAY Sports)
What are fantasy football owners getting out of adding former New York Jets wide receiver Robby Anderson now that he is a member of the Carolina Panthers after inking a two-year, $20 million deal?
The answer is summed up in a few words: Streaky playmaker.
Why do we know this? Three straight seasons of consistent year-end figures that show a trend of week-to-week ebbs and flows like few others.
Table: Robby Anderson’s career stats (2016-19)
Season
Team
G
Targ
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
Att
Yds
TD
FanPts
FanPts/G
2016
NYJ
14
78
42
587
14.0
2
3
42
0
116.9
8.4
2017
NYJ
16
114
63
941
14.9
7
3
9
0
200.0
12.5
2018
NYJ
14
94
50
752
15.0
6
2
-8
0
160.4
11.5
2019
NYJ
16
96
52
779
15.0
5
1
4
0
160.3
10.0
The scoring used in these tables is non-PPR — his optimal setting for fantasy returns. The takeaway should be regardless of the system or quarterback, the core metrics of Anderson’s game do not change to any notable degree. His catch-to-touchdown ratio hasn’t varied more than two grabs in the last three years, and Anderson’s yards-per-reception average hasn’t wavered enough to speak of since he entered the league.
When looking at the yearlong results on a weekly basis, we see massive swings in production.
Table: Robby Anderson’s 2019 per-game statistics
Wk
Opp
Targ
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
Att
Yds
TD
FanPts
1
BUF
7
3
23
7.7
0
0
0
0
5.3
2
CLE
6
4
81
20.3
0
0
0
0
12.1
3
at NE
5
3
11
3.7
0
0
0
0
4.1
5
at PHI
3
1
16
16
0
0
0
0
2.6
6
DAL
8
5
125
25
1
0
0
0
23.5
7
NE
8
1
10
10
0
0
0
0
2.0
8
at JAC
6
4
43
10.8
0
0
0
0
8.3
9
at MIA
4
2
33
16.5
0
0
0
0
5.3
10
NYG
3
1
11
11
0
0
0
0
2.1
11
at WAS
3
1
6
6.0
1
0
0
0
7.6
12
OAK
5
4
86
21.5
1
0
0
0
18.6
13
at CIN
10
7
101
14.4
0
0
0
0
17.1
14
MIA
11
7
117
16.7
1
1
4
0
25.1
15
at BAL
6
4
66
16.5
0
0
0
0
10.6
16
PIT
4
2
32
16
1
0
0
0
11.2
17
at BUF
7
3
18
6.0
0
0
0
0
4.8
All five scores came in different games, which is good for fantasy owners in weekly, head-to-head leagues.
Unfortunately, 80 percent of them came in a five-games span.
Since Week 12, he closed out the year strong in all but the finale, and it wasn’t for a lack of targets in that one.
Table: Robby Anderson’s 2018 per-game statistics
Wk
Opp
Targ
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
Att
Yds
TD
FanPts
1
at DET
1
1
41
41
1
1
-9
0
10.2
2
MIA
5
3
27
9.0
0
0
0
0
5.7
3
at CLE
4
2
22
11
0
0
0
0
4.2
4
at JAC
6
2
18
9
0
0
0
0
3.8
5
DEN
5
3
123
41
2
0
0
0
27.3
6
IND
5
3
39
13
0
0
0
0
6.9
7
MIN
10
3
44
14.7
0
0
0
0
7.4
9
at MIA
7
4
32
8.0
0
1
1
0
7.3
12
NE
5
2
22
11
0
0
0
0
4.2
13
at TEN
7
4
48
12
0
0
0
0
8.8
14
at BUF
7
4
76
19
1
0
0
0
17.6
15
HOU
11
7
96
13.7
1
0
0
0
22.6
16
GB
13
9
140
15.6
1
0
0
0
29.0
17
at NE
8
3
24
8.0
0
0
0
0
5.4
Six touchdowns and half came in three consecutive games late in the year.
One score over the first month, and it came on a lone grab.
Struggled to exploit top-level competition most of the time.
Table: Robby Anderson’s 2017 per-game statistics
Wk
Opp
Targ
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
Att
Yds
TD
FanPts
1
at BUF
8
4
22
5.5
0
0
0
0
6.2
2
at OAK
4
2
28
14.0
0
0
0
0
4.8
3
MIA
6
3
95
31.7
1
0
0
0
18.5
4
JAC
6
3
59
19.7
0
0
0
0
8.9
5
at CLE
5
2
16
8.0
0
0
0
0
3.6
6
NE
12
4
76
19
0
0
0
0
11.6
7
at MIA
5
3
35
11.7
1
0
0
0
12.5
8
ATL
6
6
104
17.3
1
1
1
0
22.5
9
BUF
5
4
48
12
1
0
0
0
14.8
10
at TB
7
4
85
21.3
1
0
0
0
18.5
12
CAR
10
6
146
24.3
2
0
0
0
32.6
13
KC
12
8
107
13.4
0
1
7
0
19.4
14
at DEN
6
3
27
9.0
0
0
0
0
5.7
15
at NO
12
5
40
8.0
0
0
0
0
9.0
16
LAC
7
5
51
10.2
0
0
0
0
10.1
17
at NE
3
1
2
2.0
0
1
1
0
1.3
Unlike the two more recent seasons, Anderson didn’t close out strong in 2017. But he also didn’t start hot, finding the end zone only once in the first six outings.
He did, however, score six times in a five-game span from Week 7-12. The Jets were on bye in Week 11.
Anderson averaged just 3.7 catches in the 10 games without a score that year.
[lawrence-related id=448889,449273]
Obviously more goes into a player’s value than his talents and past. The problem here is even if one overlooks Anderson’s demonstrable traits as a football player, he enters a lousy situation to achieve his potential from a statistical perspective.
In Carolina, he’ll catch passes from a game manager in Teddy Bridgewater and have to fight for targets in a moderate-volume passing attack with reception-hog D.J. Moore and do-all wideout Curtis Samuel. We haven’t even addressed that guy in the backfield with 107-plus catches in consecutive seasons…
Going one step further, a rookie head coach and first-time offensive coordinator shouldn’t get the benefit of the doubt 99 percent of the time, and this isn’t the one that falls in that 1 percentile.
Fantasy football takeaway
Few receivers can take a football anywhere on the field and turn it into six points in the way Anderson is capable of doing, but players need more tricks in the bag than “go deep” to become a multifaceted fantasy contributor.
It is far more likely that we’ve seen his ceiling already when compared to what to expect in Carolina. We also may know his floor to be a risk-reward matchup-based, WR3/flex play. But all of that may come with a not so obvious trapdoor in Carolina’s offense, and he realistically could be facing a ceiling somewhere in that flex range if consistency is on your radar — and it needs to be.
As mentioned, his value is at its peak in non-PPR leagues. To Anderson’s credit, he appears to have cleaned up his off-the-field antics, so at least that is going for him.
