Tag: Cubs Braves odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

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The Chicago Cubs (82-76) and Atlanta Braves (102-56) meet Thursday in the finale of a 3-game series. First pitch at Truist Park is set for 7:20 p.m. ET (MLB Network) Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 3-2

Chicago lost 6-5 in 10 innings Wednesday and 7-6 Tuesday in the series opener, despite leading both games midway through. Will those collapses be something Chicago fans have to live in an offseason that starts Monday? Or can the Cubs — now tied with the Miami Marlins for the 3rd-and-final NL Wild Card berth — bounce back and finish strong?

Atlanta has won 5 of its last 6 games. That’s a welcome turnaround for the ball club that still owns the best record in the league. The Braves had stumbled through much of September. They were just 7-10 across their 17 games immediately prior to their 5-1 run.

Cubs at Braves projected starters

RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP A.J. Smith-Shawver

Stroman (10-8, 3.88 ERA) makes his 25th start and 27th appearance. He has notched a 1.25 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 through 134 2/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 3 IP, 3 ER, 5H, 1 BB, 2 K in 6-3 home win vs. Colorado Rockies Saturday
• 2023 Road stats: 4-2, 3.82 ERA in 61 1/3 IP across 11 starts and 2 relief appearances
• Last 5 starts vs. Braves: 2-2, 3.09 ERA in 23 2/3 IP  (2019-22)
• Activated Sept. 15 after a 6-week stay on the IL due to hip and rib-cage injuries. Made 2 relief appearances before his Saturday start.
• Will likely be followed by RHP Javier Assad, who was effective in bulk relief Saturday. Assad owns a 3.07 ERA and 1.23 WHIP through 105 2/3 swingman innings (10 starts, 20 relief appearances)

Smith-Shawver (1-0, 4.57 ERA) makes his 5th start and 6th appearance. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 21 2/3 IP.

• Making his 1st MLB start since July 30; recalled from Triple-A Gwinnett, where he threw 16 2/3 innings in and around a shoulder injury
• 2023 Home stats: 3.38 ERA in 16 IP across 3 starts
• Has never faced the Cubs
• Has benefited from a .179 batting average on balls in play (BABIP)

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Cubs at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:18 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Cubs +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Braves -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
• Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-160) | Braves -1.5 (+135)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Cubs at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Cubs 5

Moneyline

There are too many gray-area concerns for the pitching on both sides. After 2 hard-fought games in this series, neither side is putting its best foot forward here.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

No lean here either way: PASS.

Over/Under

The total has gone Over in 7 of Atlanta’s last 8 games and 4 of the club’s last 5 games against the Cubs.

With Stroman being a question mark as he returns from a recent injury and Assad and Smith-Shawver having support numbers that do not match better surface figures, there is some all-around fade to the pitching in this contest. Add in fatigued bullpens after a pair of 1-run games.

BACK THE OVER 9.5 (+100). Consider moving fast on a price that figures to move higher, chipping away at value.

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The Chicago Cubs (82-75) and Atlanta Braves (101-56) meet Wednesday in the middle contest of a 3-game series. First pitch at Truist Park is set for 7:20 p.m. ET (MLB Network) Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: tied 2-2

Chicago led Tuesday’s series opener 6-0 before coughing up 7 runs over the 6th, 7th and 8th innings and losing 7-6. The loss snapped a 3-game win streak, but the Chicago offense stayed on a roll. The Cubs have scored 7.00 runs per game on the strength of a .915 OPS since Sept. 19. Chicago is 40-28 with a plus-74 run differential in the 2nd half.

Atlanta has won 4 of its last 5 games, but it’s a ball club that has scuffled a bit in September. With Tuesday’s win, the Braves are a level 11-11 since Sept. 3.

The Cubs are in the 3rd-and-final NL Wild Card spot, half a game ahead of the Miami Marlins and 1 1/2 games up on the Cincinnati Reds. The Braves have cruised to the NL East flag and are likely to have the best record in the NL. They lead the Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 games in that department.

Cubs at Braves projected starters

RHP Jameson Taillon vs. RHP Darius Vines

Taillon (8-10, 5.27 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 144 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 7 K in 6-0 home win vs. Colorado Rockies Friday
• 2023 Road stats: 4-4, 5.56 ERA in 66 1/3 IP across 13 starts
• Career starts vs. Braves: 1-0, 2.25 ERA in 12 IP over 2 starts (2018-21)
• Logged a 6.15 in the season’s 1st half but so far owns a 3.96 mark in the 2nd
• Has yielded just a .698 OPS in September. The final month of the regular season is his best month historically (.669 OPS allowed)

Vines (1-0, 4.4 ERA) makes his 2nd start and 5th appearance. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 through 14 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 K in 7-3 win at Colorado Rockies Aug. 30
• 2023 Home stats: 3.60 ERA in 2 relief appearances
• Has never faced the Cubs as a starter
• Has benefited from a .227 batting average on balls in play (BABIP)

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Cubs at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:33 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Cubs +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Braves -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
• Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-140) | Braves -1.5 (+115)
• Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Cubs at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Cubs 4

Moneyline

Chicago has a run differential that says it’s capable of another 30-35 points on its winning percentage. The Cubs have been hurt by a 21-22 mark in 1-run games. Betting value can often be found by seeking close-game records that don’t match the larger picture of a team.

Atlanta is the better club but is playing for a bit less in the postseason picture. Figure Taillon as having some rate stats that have unfairly pushed his ERA upward.

Over its last 11 series when losing the 1st game, Chicago has gone 9-2 in the 2nd.

BACK THE CUBS (+135).

Run line/Against the spread

The lean is with the Cubs, but the value in an underdog is dinged a bit with a high total. PASS.

Over/Under

The Over has cashed in Atlanta games at a 57.8% mark — only the Dodgers have seen a higher percentage. Braves games have hit the Over in 8 of the team’s last 10 games at home, 6 of their last 7 overall and 7 of their last 10 home games against the Cubs.

However, figure Taillon as a pushback against that lean. Ditto the Cubs offense, which is likely a bit overcooked with a .305 overall BABIP and a .hefty .326 BABIP with runners in scoring position.

PASS on the current offering. Consider circling back and seeking a level-priced (-110) 10 instead of 10.5.

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The Chicago Cubs (82-74) and Atlanta Braves (100-56) tangle in the opener of a 3-game set Tuesday at Truist Park. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET (TBS) Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Cubs lead 2-1

Chicago swept the Colorado Rockies over the weekend to remain involved in the NL Wild Card discussion moving into the final week of the regular season. The Cubs head into Tuesday tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the final 2 playoff spots, 1 game ahead of the Miami Marlins and 2 1/2 games up on the Cincinnati Reds. Chicago is 40-27 with a plus-75 run differential in the 2nd half.

The Braves are in no frantic push to make the postseason. They have cruised to the NL East flag and likely to the best record in the NL as they lead the Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 1/2 games. However, Atlanta has scuffled a bit in September, going just 10-11 since Sept. 3 despite winning 3 of its last 4 games.

Cubs at Braves projected starters

LHP Justin Steel vs. RHP Bryce Elder

Steele (16-5, 3.00 ERA) makes his 30th start this season. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 through 168 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 13-7 home loss vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Wednesday
• 2023 Road stats: 4-2, 3.55 ERA in 66 IP across 11 starts
• Career starts vs. Braves: 2-0, 4.35 ERA in 10 1/3 IP over 2 starts (2022-23)

Elder (12-4, 3.50 ERA) makes his 31st start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 through 171 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 3 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 5 BB, 0 K in 6-5 home loss vs. Philadelphia Phillies Wednesday
• 2023 Home stats: 7-1, 3.26 ERA in 91 IP across 16 starts
• Faced the Cubs in 1 other start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 7 H, 7 R (5 ER), 3 BB, 3 K on Aug. 5

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Cubs at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:28 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Cubs +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Braves -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
• Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-165) | Braves -1.5 (+135)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Cubs at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Cubs 4

Moneyline

The sides are fairly priced here. Atlanta is the better club but not worth 2-to-1 type odds based on the starting pitcher match-up. PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

Same as above: PASS.

Over/Under

The Over has cashed in Atlanta games at a 57.5% mark — only the Dodgers have seen a better percentage. Braves games have hit the Over in 7 of the team’s last 9 games at home, 5 of their last 6 overall and 6 of their last 9 home games against the Cubs.

Four of the last 6 Chicago games have hit the Over. The Over cashed twice the last time the Cubs faced the Braves (Aug. 4-6): the 2 Overs were in games pitches by Steele and Elder.

Steele has been a bit fortunate with a 9.4 home runs/fly balls rate this season. He’s up against an Atlanta offense which is the best in baseball against left-handers (.873 OPS). He’s getting his innings count well past previously established norms, and his last 2 starts — both shaky — could well be a sign of fatigue.

Elder has not been in good form of late.

BACK THE OVER 9.5 (+100).

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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Additional MLB coverage:
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