Tag: Cubs Braves odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

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The Chicago Cubs (24-19) and Atlanta Braves (26-13) meet at Truist Park Wednesday to wrap up their 3-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 2-0

The Braves won 7-0 as -187 home favorites in the 2nd game of the series Tuesday with the Under (8) barely hitting.

LHP Chris Sale threw 7 shutout innings and allowed just 2 hits. Braves 1B Matt Olson hit a 3-run HR to cap off a 6-run 4th inning for Atlanta, which has won 6 of 7 and outscored Chicago 9-0 so far this series.

The Cubs offense has been streaky lately. The Cubs scored 5 or more runs in each game of their weekend series against the Pittsburgh Pirates, but in Atlanta, their bats are not connecting.

Cubs at Braves projected starters

RHP Javier Assad vs. RHP Charlie Morton

Assad (3-0, 1.70 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 42 1/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 7-2 road  win against Pittsburgh Pirates Friday
• 2024 road stats: 1-0, 2.70 ERA (20 IP, 6 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 in 4 starts

Morton (3-0, 3.14 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 43 innings.

• Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 4-2 road win against New York Mets Friday
• Has only allowed 1 HR in 3 home starts this season
• Career vs. Cubs: 4-7, 5.27 ERA (95 2/3 IP, 56 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 89 K in 18 starts

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Cubs at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Cubs +145 (bet $110 to win $145) | Braves -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-135) | Braves -1.5 (+115)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Cubs at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 4, Cubs 3

Moneyline

The Cubs haven’t been swept this season, a streak that won’t last forever, and this game will probably make it their first.

The Braves (-175) are 15-4 straight up as home favorites. The books are expecting an Atlanta win, and so do I. But at the current price, it is best to PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

Atlanta has the 2nd-best run-line record as a home favorite, but it’s not very high (52.6%). Chicago, on the other hand, is 18-8 (69.2%) as a run-line underdog.

In Atlanta’s 6 opportunities to sweep a series this season, they went 3-3 straight up, but in 4 of those games, the margin of victory/defeat was just 1 run. I LEAN CUBS +1.5 (-135). You can also sprinkle a little money on WINNING MARGIN: BRAVES BY 1 (+450).

Over/Under

Both of these teams trend toward the Under, heavily. After a win, the Braves post the 3rd-highest Under record (18-7). The Cubs are quite similar after a loss (11-5-2), good for the highest rate in MLB.

Both of these pitchers are looking to avoid their 1st loss, so I expect them to be locked in.

BET UNDER 9 (-115).

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The Chicago Cubs (24-18) and the Atlanta Braves (25-13) play the 2nd game of a 3-game set against Tuesday. First pitch at Truist Park is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 1-0 and have won 4 straight over the Cubs since last season

Atlanta blanked Chicago 2-0 Monday night, cashing as a (-130) favorite for its 4th straight win at home. 3B Zack Short broke a 0-0 tie in the 6th, driving in C Travis D’arnaud with a double. SP Reynaldo Lopez pitched 5 scoreless innings before exiting with back tightness, although manager Brian Snitker said after the game the 30-year-old will be fine.

Chicago SP Shota Imanaga also went 5 scoreless innings, but ended up taking the no-decision as P Hayden Wesneski coughed up RBIs to Short and OF Ronald Acuna Jr. Cubs 3B Christopher Morel left the game after fouling a ball off his foot.

Cubs at Braves projected starters

RHP Jameson Taillon vs. LHP Chris Sale

Taillon (3-0, 1.13 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 0.88 WHIP, 1.88 BB/9 and 6.00 K/9 in 24 IP.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 6-5 victory over Milwaukee this past Saturday
• Features the 5th-lowest barrel percentage against (4.1%) amongst 73 NL starting pitchers with at least 20 IP

Sale (5-1, 2.95 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 31.69 BB/9 and 10.97 K/9 in 42.2 IP.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K last Wednesday in a 5-0 victory over Boston
• Generating the most soft-contact (25.9%) amongst 80 MLB starting pitchers

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Cubs at Braves odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:51 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Cubs +164 (bet $100 to win $164) | Braves -196 (bet $196 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the Spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-137) | Braves -1.5 (+114)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Cubs at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Atlanta 4, Chicago 3

Moneyline

PASS.

Too much juice to lay on Atlanta on their own.

Run line

BACK CUBS +1.5 (-137).

Only Arizona has a higher team OBP (.366) vs LHP than Chicago (.361) and the Cubs possess the best BB/K ratio vs. lefties (0.54) in the NL. 2B Nico Hoerner has reached base in every game played this month and CF Cody Bellinger is back after breaking multiple ribs, so as long as Morel is ready to go, I would not expect a 2nd straight scoreless outing from Sale.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8 (-115).

Short got the start Monday because the Braves usual man on the hot corner, 3B Austin Riley, is dealing with tightness on his left side. At the other corner, 1B Matt Olson has recently fared better at the plate, but still only has driven in 3 runs in 35 AB this month while hitting just .209 on the season.

Atlanta may have blown their lead on Sunday Night Baseball this past week vs. the New York Mets, but their bullpen still sports a collective 3.31 ERA, 3rd-lowest in the NL. Sale and the Braves relievers should limit any major damage against a Cubs lineup that is without their $177 million SS Dansby Swanson.

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The Chicago Cubs (24-17) visit the Atlanta Braves (24-13) on Monday. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Braves won 4-2 in 2023

The Cubs got back in the win column on Sunday with a 5-4 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates to cover as -113 road favorites. 3B Christopher Morel led had a 2-run HR and while Chicago scored 3 runs in the 10th innings to win. RHP Hector Neris pitched a scoreless inning to pick up the win.

Atlanta had a 4-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with a 4-3 loss against the New York Mets while failing to cover as a -100 road favorite. LF Jarred Kelenic had a solo HR and DH Marcell Ozuna had 2 RBIs. LHP A.J. Minter allowed a 2-run walk-off HR in the bottom of the 9th to take the loss.

Cubs at Braves projected starters

LHP Shota Imanaga vs. RHP Reynaldo Lopez

Imanaga (5-0, 1.08 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 0.82 WHIP, 1.08 BB/9 and 9.29 K/9 in 41 2/3 IP.

• Cubs are 7-0 in his last 7 starts
• Has allowing 2 ER or fewer in each game
• Has  43 Ks and 4 BBs while allowing only 5 ER and 3 HR

Lopez (2-1, 1.53 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, xx BB/9 and xx K/9 in 35 1/3 IP.

• Braves are 4-2 in his last 6 starts
• Has allowed 3 ER or fewer in each game
• Has given up 6 ER and 2 HR while striking out 36 and walking 14

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Cubs at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:59 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Cubs +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Braves -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-175) | Braves -1.5 (+145)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Cubs at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 4, Braves 3

Moneyline

BET CUBS (+120).

The Cubs are undefeated with Imanagaon the mound with the rookie ace allowing just 5 ER in 7 games. The Cubs have won 2 of their last 3 games on the road and have scored 5 or more runs in each of their last 3 games. They are 5-3 in their last 8 games.

Atlanta has scored 4 or fewer runs in 8 of its last 10.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

There is minimal value on the run line in this game.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-105).

This is a low run line, but this matchup features 2 pitchers who have allowed 11 combined ER in 13 total starts. The Cubs have scored 3 or fewer runs in 3 of their last 6 games while the Braves have scored 4 or fewer in 8 of their last 10. Atlanta has failed to hit the Over in 9 of its last 10 overall.

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The Chicago Cubs (82-76) and Atlanta Braves (102-56) meet Thursday in the finale of a 3-game series. First pitch at Truist Park is set for 7:20 p.m. ET (MLB Network) Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 3-2

Chicago lost 6-5 in 10 innings Wednesday and 7-6 Tuesday in the series opener, despite leading both games midway through. Will those collapses be something Chicago fans have to live in an offseason that starts Monday? Or can the Cubs — now tied with the Miami Marlins for the 3rd-and-final NL Wild Card berth — bounce back and finish strong?

Atlanta has won 5 of its last 6 games. That’s a welcome turnaround for the ball club that still owns the best record in the league. The Braves had stumbled through much of September. They were just 7-10 across their 17 games immediately prior to their 5-1 run.

Cubs at Braves projected starters

RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP A.J. Smith-Shawver

Stroman (10-8, 3.88 ERA) makes his 25th start and 27th appearance. He has notched a 1.25 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 through 134 2/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 3 IP, 3 ER, 5H, 1 BB, 2 K in 6-3 home win vs. Colorado Rockies Saturday
• 2023 Road stats: 4-2, 3.82 ERA in 61 1/3 IP across 11 starts and 2 relief appearances
• Last 5 starts vs. Braves: 2-2, 3.09 ERA in 23 2/3 IP  (2019-22)
• Activated Sept. 15 after a 6-week stay on the IL due to hip and rib-cage injuries. Made 2 relief appearances before his Saturday start.
• Will likely be followed by RHP Javier Assad, who was effective in bulk relief Saturday. Assad owns a 3.07 ERA and 1.23 WHIP through 105 2/3 swingman innings (10 starts, 20 relief appearances)

Smith-Shawver (1-0, 4.57 ERA) makes his 5th start and 6th appearance. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 21 2/3 IP.

• Making his 1st MLB start since July 30; recalled from Triple-A Gwinnett, where he threw 16 2/3 innings in and around a shoulder injury
• 2023 Home stats: 3.38 ERA in 16 IP across 3 starts
• Has never faced the Cubs
• Has benefited from a .179 batting average on balls in play (BABIP)

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Cubs at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:18 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Cubs +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Braves -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
• Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-160) | Braves -1.5 (+135)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Cubs at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Cubs 5

Moneyline

There are too many gray-area concerns for the pitching on both sides. After 2 hard-fought games in this series, neither side is putting its best foot forward here.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

No lean here either way: PASS.

Over/Under

The total has gone Over in 7 of Atlanta’s last 8 games and 4 of the club’s last 5 games against the Cubs.

With Stroman being a question mark as he returns from a recent injury and Assad and Smith-Shawver having support numbers that do not match better surface figures, there is some all-around fade to the pitching in this contest. Add in fatigued bullpens after a pair of 1-run games.

BACK THE OVER 9.5 (+100). Consider moving fast on a price that figures to move higher, chipping away at value.

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The Chicago Cubs (82-75) and Atlanta Braves (101-56) meet Wednesday in the middle contest of a 3-game series. First pitch at Truist Park is set for 7:20 p.m. ET (MLB Network) Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: tied 2-2

Chicago led Tuesday’s series opener 6-0 before coughing up 7 runs over the 6th, 7th and 8th innings and losing 7-6. The loss snapped a 3-game win streak, but the Chicago offense stayed on a roll. The Cubs have scored 7.00 runs per game on the strength of a .915 OPS since Sept. 19. Chicago is 40-28 with a plus-74 run differential in the 2nd half.

Atlanta has won 4 of its last 5 games, but it’s a ball club that has scuffled a bit in September. With Tuesday’s win, the Braves are a level 11-11 since Sept. 3.

The Cubs are in the 3rd-and-final NL Wild Card spot, half a game ahead of the Miami Marlins and 1 1/2 games up on the Cincinnati Reds. The Braves have cruised to the NL East flag and are likely to have the best record in the NL. They lead the Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 games in that department.

Cubs at Braves projected starters

RHP Jameson Taillon vs. RHP Darius Vines

Taillon (8-10, 5.27 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 144 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 7 K in 6-0 home win vs. Colorado Rockies Friday
• 2023 Road stats: 4-4, 5.56 ERA in 66 1/3 IP across 13 starts
• Career starts vs. Braves: 1-0, 2.25 ERA in 12 IP over 2 starts (2018-21)
• Logged a 6.15 in the season’s 1st half but so far owns a 3.96 mark in the 2nd
• Has yielded just a .698 OPS in September. The final month of the regular season is his best month historically (.669 OPS allowed)

Vines (1-0, 4.4 ERA) makes his 2nd start and 5th appearance. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 through 14 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 K in 7-3 win at Colorado Rockies Aug. 30
• 2023 Home stats: 3.60 ERA in 2 relief appearances
• Has never faced the Cubs as a starter
• Has benefited from a .227 batting average on balls in play (BABIP)

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Cubs at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:33 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Cubs +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Braves -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
• Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-140) | Braves -1.5 (+115)
• Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Cubs at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Cubs 4

Moneyline

Chicago has a run differential that says it’s capable of another 30-35 points on its winning percentage. The Cubs have been hurt by a 21-22 mark in 1-run games. Betting value can often be found by seeking close-game records that don’t match the larger picture of a team.

Atlanta is the better club but is playing for a bit less in the postseason picture. Figure Taillon as having some rate stats that have unfairly pushed his ERA upward.

Over its last 11 series when losing the 1st game, Chicago has gone 9-2 in the 2nd.

BACK THE CUBS (+135).

Run line/Against the spread

The lean is with the Cubs, but the value in an underdog is dinged a bit with a high total. PASS.

Over/Under

The Over has cashed in Atlanta games at a 57.8% mark — only the Dodgers have seen a higher percentage. Braves games have hit the Over in 8 of the team’s last 10 games at home, 6 of their last 7 overall and 7 of their last 10 home games against the Cubs.

However, figure Taillon as a pushback against that lean. Ditto the Cubs offense, which is likely a bit overcooked with a .305 overall BABIP and a .hefty .326 BABIP with runners in scoring position.

PASS on the current offering. Consider circling back and seeking a level-priced (-110) 10 instead of 10.5.

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The Chicago Cubs (82-74) and Atlanta Braves (100-56) tangle in the opener of a 3-game set Tuesday at Truist Park. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET (TBS) Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Cubs lead 2-1

Chicago swept the Colorado Rockies over the weekend to remain involved in the NL Wild Card discussion moving into the final week of the regular season. The Cubs head into Tuesday tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the final 2 playoff spots, 1 game ahead of the Miami Marlins and 2 1/2 games up on the Cincinnati Reds. Chicago is 40-27 with a plus-75 run differential in the 2nd half.

The Braves are in no frantic push to make the postseason. They have cruised to the NL East flag and likely to the best record in the NL as they lead the Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 1/2 games. However, Atlanta has scuffled a bit in September, going just 10-11 since Sept. 3 despite winning 3 of its last 4 games.

Cubs at Braves projected starters

LHP Justin Steel vs. RHP Bryce Elder

Steele (16-5, 3.00 ERA) makes his 30th start this season. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 through 168 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 13-7 home loss vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Wednesday
• 2023 Road stats: 4-2, 3.55 ERA in 66 IP across 11 starts
• Career starts vs. Braves: 2-0, 4.35 ERA in 10 1/3 IP over 2 starts (2022-23)

Elder (12-4, 3.50 ERA) makes his 31st start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 through 171 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 3 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 5 BB, 0 K in 6-5 home loss vs. Philadelphia Phillies Wednesday
• 2023 Home stats: 7-1, 3.26 ERA in 91 IP across 16 starts
• Faced the Cubs in 1 other start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 7 H, 7 R (5 ER), 3 BB, 3 K on Aug. 5

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Cubs at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:28 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Cubs +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Braves -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
• Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-165) | Braves -1.5 (+135)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Cubs at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Cubs 4

Moneyline

The sides are fairly priced here. Atlanta is the better club but not worth 2-to-1 type odds based on the starting pitcher match-up. PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

Same as above: PASS.

Over/Under

The Over has cashed in Atlanta games at a 57.5% mark — only the Dodgers have seen a better percentage. Braves games have hit the Over in 7 of the team’s last 9 games at home, 5 of their last 6 overall and 6 of their last 9 home games against the Cubs.

Four of the last 6 Chicago games have hit the Over. The Over cashed twice the last time the Cubs faced the Braves (Aug. 4-6): the 2 Overs were in games pitches by Steele and Elder.

Steele has been a bit fortunate with a 9.4 home runs/fly balls rate this season. He’s up against an Atlanta offense which is the best in baseball against left-handers (.873 OPS). He’s getting his innings count well past previously established norms, and his last 2 starts — both shaky — could well be a sign of fatigue.

Elder has not been in good form of late.

BACK THE OVER 9.5 (+100).

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