A betting guide to why the Rams will (or won’t) win the Super Bowl

The Rams flat-out have more star power than everyone else left. It’s basic math.

Recently, the Los Angeles Rams were a perennial laughingstock, a team you never took seriously. From 2012 to 2016, otherwise known as the Jeff Fisher era, St. Louis/Los Angeles won 31 games. “7-9” was a joke that opposing fans (along with the team’s own) made about a squad that seemingly always found a way to underachieve.

Then Sean McVay came around, and the Rams made the playoffs in his first season. The following year, they lost Super Bowl LIII. They have still never finished with a losing record in the three years since, always sitting at or near the top of the NFC.

Many lauded the now 36-year-old McVay as a trendsetter when he first started. A millennial offensive mind (savant, really) with impeccable recollection for the smallest details of a football in a league that, on the whole, refused to evolve. For the most part, the NFL has still refused to evolve. But McVay has only seemed to grow into the job as he coaches one of the best rosters, on paper, in recent memory.

McVay is now at the helm of one of the NFL’s premier teams. As long as he’s coaching the Rams, that won’t change any time soon. And with Los Angeles again on the precipice of a Super Bowl, if you let his bunch into the Big Game this time, with the lessons they’ve learned, it’s hard to imagine they squander the opportunity.

Here’s why the Rams will become the second-straight team to win a Super Bowl on their home turf.

How they got here

Every good team faces adversity and overcomes it throughout their season. That’s not only a fact of pro football but with people and life.

(See, you come to read my columns, you get sage advice, too.)

But it’s hard to argue the Rams (-3.5 favorites to win the NFC Championship over the 49ers at Tipico) faced too much of any adversity in direct comparison to their counterparts. At least, when you consider how much raw talent this de facto All-Star team has.

When they lost team captain Robert Woods to an ACL tear in early November, the Rams still had Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, and Odell Beckham Jr.

When they already had a devastating pass rush led by Aaron Donald and former lead running mate Leonard Floyd, they added former Super Bowl MVP Von Miller for the modest price of a few Day 2 draft picks. Given the pass rush L.A. has, it’s as if All-Pro corner Jalen Ramsey has half of his job done for him.

And, to backtrack altogether, when they had Jared Goff once running one of the league’s best offenses, they traded him for the once-maligned but extremely gifted Matthew Stafford.

It’s Stafford, above all, who mixes this drink.

Ignore the poorly-worded tweet giving sole credit to Kupp: The Rams don’t survive a defending champion, Tom Brady-lead team if not for Stafford. If not for Stafford, they don’t look like a star-studded juggernaut with the arguable best football player alive on their defensive side (Donald).

Everyone else is only in a position for Super Bowl glory because of him.

How they’ll win the Super Bowl

It’s difficult to pinpoint the best thing the Rams do as a team because they do everything well. This is no one-trick pony. This is a team that probably should’ve comfortably finished with the No. 1 seed in the NFC, rather than have to play a Wild Card Game.

This year, the loaded Rams were (takes a deep breath):

  • Ninth in total offense and eighth in scoring (27.1 points a game)
  • Fifth in passing offense and eighth in Football Outsiders’ offensive DVOA efficiency metric
  • Fifth in that same DVOA metric, but on defense
  • 10th in takeaways (25)
  • 25th in sacks allowed (just 31) and third in sacks (50)

Most of the time, if you’re in the top 10 when it comes to efficiency on both sides of the ball, it’s the most straightforward predictor of a championship. It’s pretty rare to see any team without a top-10 unit on either side win a title. Even then, they’re still stellar in another specific aspect on that unit (see Chiefs, Kansas City, 2019, and a pass rush).

McVay’s Rams not only create big plays and protect the passer, they also harass the other quarterback and rarely make backbreaking mistakes. If I were a 49ers, Chiefs, or Bengals coach and/or player set to face the Rams on either of the final two weekends of the NFL season, I’d put my feelings in the words of Mr. Randy Savage:

It would unjustifiably be a position I’d rather not be in.

Why they won’t

Whereas the Rams are mostly sound in every phase of the game, they have one tiny, itsy-bitsy bugaboo that might prove to be an Achilles heel.

They’re in the holiday spirit of giving year-round. How kind. How generous. We should all aspire to random acts of kindness, not only giving the football away.

Matthew Stafford’s Rams (and I word it this way for a reason) were tied for seventh in the NFL in giveaways with 23. The gifted Stafford himself, who, yes, did add an element of explosiveness to L.A.’s offense, was responsible for 19 (!) of those turnovers with 17 interceptions and two fumbles.

When Stafford felt particularly generous, his turnovers (the way they often do) not only came at the worst moments but in bunches. Nobody can explode and be a hero and also implode the way this former Detroit Lion does.

Two picks, including a pick-six, against the Titans in a Sunday Night Football game.

Two picks, including another pick-six, against the 49ers in a Monday Night Football matchup against their NFC title opponent only a week later.

One fumble and, uh, another pick-six in the third-straight week against the Packers in a nationally televised late afternoon game.

I could go on, but I do fear for Stafford’s mental health. (Also, he did eventually stop throwing pick-sixes in consecutive weeks.)

So far, through two playoff games, Stafford’s trademark propensity to capitulate hasn’t yet cropped up for the Rams. If anything, it was other respective Rams’ faults (including Kupp and Cam Akers, among others) for combining to fumble the ball four times and letting the Buccaneers almost steal a sure-fire victory.

But there will likely come a time when the Rams have to chase a lead in the NFC Championship Game against the 49ers, and if they’re fortunate, in the Super Bowl (currently +210 to win it all with Tipico) against Kansas City or Cincinnati. When you’re chasing, you’re pressing. When you’re pressing, you’re making mistakes. When you’re making mistakes, you’re going back to a quiet locker room while the other team celebrates.

If Stafford, the veteran gunslinger, isn’t careful under that pressure, he might find himself giving away the best opportunity these Rams have ever had at a championship.

Those who reside in Los Angeles have to hope they get Good Stafford instead.

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Cooper Kupp wins PFWA Offensive Player of the Year

Cooper Kupp has been named the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year by the PFWA, a huge honor for the Rams WR

Itā€™s looking like a dead heat between Cooper Kupp and and Jonathan Taylor for the NFLā€™s Offensive Player of the Year award, which will be announced at the NFL Honors show on Feb. 10. But the first real indicator that Kupp might edge out Taylor has been revealed.

The Pro Football Writers of America voted Kupp the Offensive Player of the Year for 2021, giving it to him over Taylor. Aaron Rodgers was voted MVP and T.J. Watt won Defensive Player of the Year, which is how the voting for the Associated Pressā€™ awards are expected to go, as well.

Kupp put together a historic season with 145 catches for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns, leading the NFL in all three categories. He fell four catches shy of Michael Thomasā€™ single-season record and only 17 yards short of Calvin Johnsonā€™s record for the most yards in one season.

Given the historical context of Kuppā€™s campaign, heā€™s a deserving pick for Offensive Player of the Year, even with the tremendous season Taylor put together.

NFC Championship preview: How the 49ers can beat the Rams

The San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams meet for the third time this season, now with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Here is how the 49ers beat the Rams.

And then, there were two.

NFC West rivals square off Sunday with a trip — or at least a short excursion — to Super Bowl LVI on the line. When the Los Angeles Rams kick things off against the San Francisco 49ers, it will be the third meeting this year between these two franchises.

Unfortunately for the Rams and their fans, the first two meetings did not go their way.

Back in Week 10, the 49ers won in dominant fashion, topping the Rams by a final score of 31-10. That game was perhaps notable for how the 49ers began the game, putting together an 18-play drive that covered over 11 minutes of game time, nearly the entire first quarter, that gave the 49ers an early 7-0 lead.

San Francisco followed that with a Pick-Six of Matthew Stafford on the Rams’ ensuing possession, and things were trending in their direction early.

Then in Week 18, with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo dealing with a thumb injury and the 49ers needing a win to get into the playoffs, San Francisco pulled out a three-point win in overtime, setting the stage for their playoff run.

So how does the third meeting between these teams play out? Do the 49ers make it a perfect 3-0 against the Rams on the season, or does Los Angeles become the second-straight team to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium?

Here is what the 49ers have to do to beat the Rams.

Cooper Kupp wins NFC Offensive Player of the Year at 101 Awards

Cooper Kupp was recognized at the 101 Awards, being voted NFC Offensive Player of the Year by the committee of 101 media members

The NFL wonā€™t announce its official awards until the NFL Honors show on Feb. 10, but Cooper Kupp is already earning plenty of recognition. After being voted a first-team All-Pro by the Associated Press and being selected to the All-NFL team by the PFWA, Kupp has now taken home NFC Offensive Player of the Year honors from the NFL 101 Awards, which is the nationā€™s oldest awards event for pro football.

The awards are voted on by 101 members of the national media, and they chose Kupp as the best offensive player in the NFC. Unsurprisingly, Jonathan Taylor was given AFC Offensive Player of the Year honors after a historic season by the Colts running back.

Itā€™s a toss-up between Kupp and Taylor for the NFLā€™s official Offensive Player of the Year award, which unlike the 101 Awards is not split up between conferences. Kupp became just the third receiver in the Super Bowl era to win the triple crown, leading the NFL in receptions (145), receiving yards (1,947) and touchdown catches (16).

He fell just 18 yards shy of breaking Calvin Johnsonā€™s single-season receiving record and only had four fewer receptions than Michael Thomas did in 2019 when he set the single-season record.

Weā€™ll have to wait a little while longer to see whether Kupp or Taylor prevails as the best offensive player in football, but this is a nice honor for the Rams wideout.

Isaac Bruce breaks down what makes Cooper Kupp so special

Isaac Bruce knows what it takes to excel at wide receiver, so when he talks about Cooper Kupp, it’s worth a listen

Cooper Kupp put together arguably the greatest season in Rams history, catching 145 passes for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. He set franchise records for receptions and receiving yards, topping marks previously held by Isaac Bruce.

Even though he played one more game thanks to the NFLā€™s 18-week regular season, Kuppā€™s campaign was one of the record books. Bruce paid close attention to his performance and the Ramsā€™ season as a whole, so heā€™s well aware of just how dominant Kupp was.

During an appearance on the Jim Rome Show, Bruce broke down what makes Kupp special, praising the mental aspect of his game and his ability to see the field like a quarterback.

ā€œI always say once a guy has it ā€“ what I mean by that is, for a wide receiver to have it, that means he now has quarterback eyes,ā€ Bruce said. ā€œSo he can read a defense, he can go pre-snap, he can manipulate. Heā€™s faster than what people give him credit for. Heā€™s very elusive and I just think heā€™s really strong in catching the football. He catches it in a crowd and he plays at two speeds. Thatā€™s one of the things that Torry (Holt) and myself, we always tried to make sure we were doing. Itā€™s kind of like making the defensive back think that weā€™re running full speed but weā€™re really not and then once the ball gets in our hands, weā€™re able to turn it on and he does that perfectly.ā€

Kupp was outstanding in the regular season, and his stellar play has continued in the playoffs, too. He caught nine passes for 183 yards and a touchdown against the Buccaneers in the divisional round on Sunday, bringing his postseason average up to 122 yards per game with 14 total receptions this year.

After missing the playoffs in 2018 and being forced to sit out last yearā€™s loss to the Packers in the second round due to injury, Kupp is showing just how valuable he is to the Rams this postseason.

Watch: This angle of Matthew Stafford’s game-saving bomb to Cooper Kupp is incredible

As if Matthew Stafford’s game-saving bomb to Cooper Kupp wasn’t amazing enough, this camera angle makes it that much better

Youā€™ve probably watched it 100 times already, but Matthew Staffordā€™s 44-yard bomb to Cooper Kupp in the final seconds of Sundayā€™s win over the Buccaneers never gets old. And while weā€™ve all seen the sideline angle of the throw, this end zone view shows just how spectacular it really was.

Not only did it come in the biggest moment of the game with the Rams needing a field goal to win it in regulation, but Ndamukong Suh was bearing down on Stafford as he uncorked the pass. Austin Corbett got beat badly by Suh and allowed quick pressure, but Stafford threw the ball with such great anticipation that it dropped into the bucket for Kupp deep down the middle.

He didn’t have a chance to step into the throw, so Stafford had to use every ounce of arm strength to get it deep enough for Kupp. He couldn’t have thrown it any better.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CZIfW52ltJa/

Sean McVay said after the game that it felt like the ball hung up in the air for 12 seconds, and watching it from this angle, it’s easy to see why it seemed that way.

This was the biggest play of Stafford’s career and one Rams fans won’t soon forget.

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Jalen Ramsey, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald selected to PFWA All-NFL team; Matt Gay makes All-NFC

Jalen Ramsey, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald are the Rams selected to the PFWA All-NFL team. Matt Gay was named to the All-NFC team.

It wasn’t tough to guess which three members of the Los Angeles Rams were going to receive All-Pro honors for their efforts this season. When the Associated Press released the All-Pro teams, Jalen Ramsey, Aaron Donald, and Cooper Kupp were officially announced as first-team All-Pros, with the Rams being the lone team in the NFL to have two unanimous selections (Donald and Kupp).

With other sites and sources naming their All-Pro teams, the Rams have four players that were named to the PFWA All-NFL or All-NFC teams.

The same three players that earned All-Pro honors were all selected to the All-NFL team by PFWA. Ramsey, Donald, and Kupp were all likely easy selections, but Matt Gay was unable to make the All-NFL team. Instead, he was named to the All-NFC team at kicker.

 

Kupp joins Davante Adams on the All-NFL squad as the two wide receivers selected. Donald was named to his seventh straight PFWA All-NFL team, while Ramsey was selected for the second consecutive year.

As a kicker, it’s tough to be named the best at your position as long as Justin Tucker remains in the NFL. Tucker had another spectacular season where he converted 35 of his 37 attempts, including a 66-yard game-winning field goal that set a new NFL record for the longest field goal made.

Even though he may not be considered on the same level as Tucker, Gay had himself a spectacular season as well, making 32 of his 34 attempts. He also just made a game-winning field goal against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday that punched the Rams’ ticket to the NFC title game versus the San Francisco 49ers.

Despite the ultimate goal being a Super Bowl, it’s refreshing to see members of the Rams be recognized for their performances in the regular season.

Cooper Kupp’s huge game is a case for wide receivers to get more love in NFL MVP talks

It’s a quarterback award, but maybe that should change.

On a weekend where leading NFL MVP candidates Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady were both eliminated from the postseason, a less-heralded candidate for the award moved on.Ā 

Wide receiver Cooper Kuppā€™s Los Angeles Rams beat Bradyā€™s Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 30-27, in a thrilling finish Sunday, and they did it in no small part due to the performance of Kupp himself.

The unanimous All-Pro selection caught nine passes for 183 yards and a touchdown in a 30-27 victory, including catches of 20 and 44 yards to set up the game-winning field goal. In a game that required each teamā€™s biggest stars to make plays, Kupp made the biggest.

The first player to capture the NFLā€™s receiving triple crown (145 receptions, 1,947 yards, 16 touchdowns) since Steve Smith in 2005, Kupp had the type of game his team has come to expect of him, the type youā€™d expect an MVP candidate to have on the biggest stage. In the regular season, he recorded fewer than 92 yards just once, with a season-high of 163 yards. He eclipsed 100 yards in 11 games and caught multiple touchdowns in five games. Itā€™s hard to ask for much more from a receiver, but when the Rams needed more Sunday, he delivered.

Yet, Kupp finished the regular season with six players ahead of him in terms of MVP odds, all quarterbacks — including his own. Kupp had +3000 odds on Tipico Sportsbook to win the award, far longer than the favored Rodgers at -135. Along with Matthew Stafford and Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow all had better odds, too.

Kupp’s performance against the Bucs is an interesting case for wide receivers to get more attention in future MVP conversations. Without Kupp, itā€™s hard to imagine the Rams in the playoffs, let alone one game from the Super Bowl. Itā€™s also hard to imagine Stafford having the career-defining season heā€™s having. The game was enough for several people on social media to make his case, most notably teammate Johnny Hekker who could’ve said Stafford but didn’t.

Quarterback is widely accepted as the most important position in football, maybe in all of sports. And as such, players at the position take the most blame when things go wrong and receive the most credit when they go right, deserved or not. But how much of that credit should go to Davante Adams if youā€™re Rodgers, or the all-star cast of targets Brady had to work with this season? And the list goes on. Are the Cincinnati Bengals more similar to last year’s team without Ja’Marr Chase?

Itā€™s hard to quantify, but on Saturday when the Packers desperately needed their MVP quarterback to put away the San Francisco 49ers, he could not. And on Sunday, when the Bucs needed four quarters from their future Hall of Fame quarterback, he could only give them a half. When Stafford and the Rams needed Kupp, he was there each time, including on the drive that put them in position to advance.

Kuppā€™s performance in the playoffs has no bearing on voting for MVP, a regular-season award. But it does help bring into perspective the true value a player of his caliber can have. Maybe thatā€™s taken into consideration the next time a receiver has the type of season Kupp had…and gets to keep having.

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Cooper Kupp is so good even Justin Jefferson is confused

Justin Jefferson couldn’t believe his eyes.

How is Los Angeles Rams wideout Cooper Kupp always so wide open? Add Minnesota Vikings star receiver Justin Jefferson as one of the countless individuals asking that question.

First, it was the 70-yard touchdown reception on a completely blown coverage in Sundayā€™s Divisional Playoff game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And then it was the two clutch receptions that put the Rams in field goal position for the game-winning kick.

It doesnā€™t matter what happens on the field or how many players are defending him. Kupp always finds a way to fight through the crowd into open grass.

ā€œI really donā€™t get itā€¦ how is Cooper Kupp always WIDE open,ā€ Jefferson posted on Twitter.

Kupp, a worthy MVP candidate, came up 17 yards shy of breaking Pro Football Hall of Famer Calvin Johnsonā€™s single-season receiving yards record (1,964) in 2021. Ironically enough, Jefferson came within 17 yards of breaking Hall of Famer Randy Mossā€™ franchise single-season receiving yards record (1,632) this season as well.

Kupp is the only other player in the league that had him beat in receiving yards.

However, after breaking Odell Beckham Jr.ā€™s record for most receiving yards by a player in his first two seasons, itā€™s already clear that Jefferson will be coming for the throne in 2022.

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Cooper Kupp’s game-saving 44-yard catch vs. Bucs was historically improbable

What Cooper Kupp did had never been done.

Los Angeles Rams receiver Cooper Kupp hauled in a historically anomalous reception in the closing moments of the team’s AFC divisional-round win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday.

His 44-yard catch, which set up the game-winning field goal, was the longest play from scrimmage with less than one minute left in the fourth quarter of a postseason game, per NFL Network’s Andrew Siciliano. Admittedly, there’s a small sample size of plays that meet that criteria. That said, what Kupp did had never been done.

His clutch play, thanks to a beautiful throw from quarterback Matthew Stafford, helped keep the Rams from going into overtime. It was a tremendous effort from L.A. to get those points — especially considering Tom Brady was on the other side of the field.

There’s no saying what might have happened if Brady got a shot at overtime.

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