2021 Compensatory Draft Picks: 8 Saints free agents who could qualify

The New Orleans Saints have many expensive pending free agents, and they could qualify for compensatory picks in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Why don’t the New Orleans Saints ever get any compensatory draft picks? The NFL’s process for awarding those extra selections is carefully guarded by the league office, but the analysts at Over The Cap have done a good job of approximating it based off historical results.

And what they’ve found is that it directly lines up with how active teams are in unrestricted free agency. The only teams that qualify for compensatory picks are those that lose more unrestricted free agents than they’ve added; that means the Saints, always aggressive in the open market, rarely lose more than they gain. But things might be different in 2020.

As many as 27 Saints players could hit the open market this offseason, though many of them are special teamers and career backups. We’re guessing that only 8 Saints free agents could end up qualifying in the compensatory pick formula, and it’s no sure thing that they all return (or get replaced by free agents; the Saints have several easy replacements in the building already). That opens the door for next year’s draft class to get reinforced with some additional picks.

The quality of compensatory selections awarded correlates with the per-year contract values of unrestricted free agents lost to other teams, with the most-valuable contracts translating to third-round picks while the lower-valued may only result in seventh-round selections. Thankfully, Over The Cap estimates the different tiers as such:

  • 3rd round: $13 million or higher
  • 4th round: $8.5 million to $13 million
  • 5th round: $6.5 million to $8.5 million
  • 6th round: $4 million to $6.5 million
  • 7th round: $1.5 million to $4 million

With that in mind, here’s where we’re projecting each qualifying Saints free agent to factor into the compensatory formula.

CB Eli Apple

Will Vragovic/Getty Images

Estimated average annual salary: $3.75 million

Projected compensatory pick: 7th round

How much are teams going to buy into Apple’s late-season skid before his injury? He was rock-solid in coverage for the first half of 2019, living up to the hype his coaches spoke about during the offseason. But something seemed to switch in Apple when Marshon Lattimore missed time with a hamstring injury, and he ended up getting fouled five times in two games before his own injury sidelined him. If teams think Apple is a first-round draft bust and at best a reclamation project, he probably won’t break $4 million on the open market. But all it takes is one team to bet on his consistently-strong play from the bulk of last season and offer him $7 million or more per year.

Eli AppleP.J. WilliamsDavid OnyemataVonn Bell

A.J. KleinAndrus PeatTeddy BridgewaterDrew Brees

Will the Saints make another run at signing recently-cut Josh Norman?

The New Orleans Saints tried to sign Josh Norman once before, and he’s now available again after the Washington Redskins reportedly cut him.

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The Washington Redskins are reportedly releasing veteran cornerback Josh Norman, per NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo. Norman was due more than $15 million against the 2020 salary cap, but his sagging level of play made it unlikely that he would reunite with new head coach Ron Rivera, who worked with him on the Carolina Panthers earlier in Norman’s career.

It creates an interesting situation for the New Orleans Saints, for several reasons. Norman only signed with Washington in the first place simply because they beat the Saints to the punch — New Orleans was the second team to approach Norman about joining them when the Panthers rescinded the franchise tag back in 2016. Saints recruiting efforts had reached contract restructuring discussions with Drew Brees to make room for Norman beneath the salary cap before he ultimately chose to move to D.C.

However, Norman is a very different player now than he was then. He’s 32 and coming off one of his worst years as a pro, having received a Pro Football Focus grade of 45.6; that ranks 111 out of 113 qualifying cornerbacks. If the Saints were to pursue Norman, they would be unlikely to offer him a starting job. He certainly won’t have leverage to ask for significant contract demands.

That said: it’s not impossible to imagine the Saints making a run at him. New Orleans has just three cornerbacks under contract right now, and two of them could be salary cap casualties themselves. Releasing Janoris Jenkins would free up $11.25 million, while cutting Patrick Robinson would make $3.65 million in cap space. The Saints are at a point where they simply need to start adding warm bodies to the depth chart, and it’s no guarantee that starters Eli Apple and P.J. Williams return after testing the free agent market. The Saints have started worse players than Norman, who we have to stress would probably be seen as a backup.

There’s one more wrinkle to consider. Because Norman was released outright, he won’t count against the compensatory draft pick formula for 2021. While the Saints rarely qualify for compensatory picks due to their activity in free agency, their abundance of expiring contracts means they could have a quieter offseason than usual this year. They could check off the “add a veteran cornerback” box on their list of offseason needs by signing Norman and still recoup a draft pick next year should in-house free agents like Teddy Bridgewater or Vonn Bell leave for new teams.

Of course, the argument against signing Norman is that he’s very much near the end of his career. The Saints could use the resources in signing him to add a younger player with a higher ceiling, or bring back someone like Apple or Williams. Just two years ago they believed signing Kurt Coleman in similar circumstances would give the secondary some much-needed experience and playmaking ability on the back end, but he was a liability by midseason. That could be a cautionary tale still fresh in the minds of Saints shot-callers like Sean Payton.

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What resources do the Saints have to work with in 2020 offseason?

The New Orleans Saints currently rank sixth-worst in both projected 2020 salary cap space and in cumulative 2020 NFL Draft pick value.

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It won’t surprise anyone that the New Orleans Saints are strapped for cash and draft picks in 2020. The team’s strategy of maximizing their resources has created a cycle of spending future assets to win now, and it’s resulted in the best three-year stretch in Saints history.

So expect that to continue this offseason. The Saints will not hesitate to trade next year’s draft picks to move up and target a prospect they really believe in, and they’re also willing to get creative in contract structures to fit everyone in beneath the salary cap. The situations in each area are going to change whenever the new NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement is ratified and once this year’s compensatory draft picks are awarded, so don’t look at these numbers as more than well-educated guesses. But where do the Saints stand right now?

We’ll start with the salary cap. The analysts at Over The Cap are working with an estimated 2020 salary cap of $200 million, which has the Saints with just under $9.4 million in cap space. That ranks sixth-lowest around the league, but at least the Saints aren’t starting out in the red this year. However, Over The Cap also lists the Saints with 56 players under contract, which reflects the voided deals with Drew Brees, Teddy Bridgewater, and A.J. Klein; while each of their contracts are up in March, their contracts are technically still on the books. Those three players are the difference between tying for the 10th-fewest players signed for 2020 and the 14th-most, which reflects where teams stand right now in filling out their 90-man offseason rosters.

What about the draft? Tankathon has put together a cumulative value of each team’s current picks, based off the Jimmy Johnson model, and the Saints sit close to the bottom of the pack. That’s because they’ve already traded their 2020 second-round pick (as part of a package that netted starting center Erik McCoy and versatile safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson) and their seventh-round pick (for cornerback Eli Apple, a former starter headed for free agency).

The 2020 Saints draft class currently has a total value of 992.4, which ranks sixth-worst in the NFL. Their only selections in the top 100 will come at Nos. 24 and 88, and their three remaining picks will be pushed back once compensatory draft picks are allotted. Naturally, the established, aggressive Saints draft strategy of trading up means they’ll probably try to make a move on draft day.

So, to recap: for now, the Saints rank sixth-worst in both projected 2020 salary cap space and in draft pick value. But as we’ve seen before, that probably won’t be a big hurdle for Saints coach Sean Payton, general manager Mickey Loomis, and their staff. It’s shaping up for another fascinating offseason in New Orleans.

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Broncos projected to receive 3 compensatory 2020 NFL draft picks

Broncos are projected to receive three compensatory 2020 NFL draft picks.

Denver Broncos general manager John Elway is about to have a busy offseason. In addition to likely having nearly $80 million worth of salary cap space, Elway could have 12 picks in the 2020 NFL draft.

Denver currently has nine selections in the draft but the league could award them several more this offseason. Each year, the NFL awards compensatory picks to teams who essentially lost more than they gained during free agency the previous offseason.

Nick Korte of OverTheCap.com has predicted that Denver will receive a fifth-round selection for offensive lineman Billy Turner, a seventh-round pick for offensive lineman Max Garcia and a seventh-round selection for cornerback Tramaine Brock.

If the Broncos do receive three compensatory draft picks as Korte has projected, this is what the team’s 2020 draft order will look like:

Round 1: Own pick (15th overall)
Round 2: Own pick
Round 3: Own pick
Round 3: via Pittsburgh Steelers
Round 3: via San Francisco 49ers
Round 4: Own pick
Round 4: via San Franciso 49ers
Round 5: Compensatory pick
Round 6: via Washington Redskins
Round 7: via New England Patriots
Round 7: Compensatory pick
Round 7 Compensatory pick

With so much draft capital to work with, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Elway make several draft day trades.

Last year, Denver traded down in the first round to select tight end Noah Fant before selecting guard Dalton Risner in the second round and then trading up in the second round to also land quarterback Drew Lock. All three of those players were key contributors in 2019.

The 2020 NFL draft will take place in Las Vegas from April 23-25.

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Colts aren’t projected to receive 2020 compensatory pick

Colts unlikely to get a comp pick.

Throughout Chris Ballard’s short tenure as general manager, it has been shown many times how much he and the front office value picks in the NFL draft.

Even so, it doesn’t appear the Colts will be receiving a compensatory pick in the upcoming 2020 NFL Draft in April. Because the Colts didn’t lose any big-time free agents and because they signed a few players, they weren’t projected to receive one of those compensatory picks form Nick Korte of Over The Cap.

The Colts did get a compensatory pick during the 2019 NFL Draft. After they lost Donte Moncrief to the Jacksonville Jaguars the year prior, it resulted in them getting a fourth-round pick.

However, the same likely won’t be said about this year’s draft. They brought in wide receiver Devin Funchess and defensive end Justin Houston during free agency in 2019.

The Colts are currently staring at nine picks in the 2020 draft. Three of them are from trades with the Washington Redskins (second round), New York Jets (sixth round) and Miami Dolphins (seventh round).

Even with a surplus of picks, the Colts like to acquire more selections. With a need at several positions, it wouldn’t at all be a surprise to see Ballard add more picks to his current total.

Regardless, the Colts will go about this offseason likely without the chance to get an additional mid-round pick from the compensatory formula.

Bears projected to earn 4th-round compensatory pick for Adrian Amos

The Bears have 6 draft selections in the 2020 NFL Draft, and they’re projected to land a 4th-round compensatory pick for Adrian Amos.

The Chicago Bears have plenty of needs to address this offseason, and general manager Ryan Pace is going to need to hit on some players in the 2020 NFL Draft.

The Bears currently have six draft picks this year, including two second rounders at No. 43 and No. 50. But once again, they’re without a first round pick, as well as third or fourth round selections. But that might change.

According to Over the Cap, the Bears are projected to land a fourth-round compensatory pick for safety Adrian Amos, who signed with the Green Bay Packers in free agency last offseason.

The Bears don’t have any first round picks for the second straight season — the final first rounder owed to the Oakland Raiders for acquiring Khalil Mack. While they have two second-round selections, they don’t have any third rounders.

Chicago has two picks in the second round, one in the fifth round, two in the sixth round and one in the seventh round.

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List of all Cowboys 2020 draft slots, including projected comp picks

The Cowboys are out of the playoffs, so the draft watch is officially underway. A look at their projected picks.

The Dallas Cowboys tried to make the playoffs after failing to secure a bid when things were under control. They won the battle of the day, a dominant 47-16 win over the Washington Redskins got them close, but the Philadelphia Eagles also won in blowout fashion and clinched the East.

Without a division title and a wild-card berth, the victory may have allowed this iteration of players to celebrate together for one last time, but it also hurt the franchise a bit overall. The win moved Dallas to 8-8, and allowed a handful of clubs to move ahead of them in the 2020 draft order. Dallas will now select No. 17 in the first round.

Following the first round, Dallas will rotate with the Steelers and the Bears for the 17th, 18th and 19th picks in the subsequent rounds. Dallas will pick 19th in the second round (51st overall) and 18th in the third round 82nd overall.

After the third round, the NFL will award 32 compensatory picks based on a formula that is centered around qualifying free agents lost and signed in the 2019 offseason and those player’s performances across the season. The 32 picks will be spread throughout the final five rounds based mostly on the value of the contracts signed by the qualifying players.

The Cowboys are projected to have earned a fifth-round comp pick for losing Cole Beasley in free agency to the Buffalo Bills, according to Over The Cap.

Here is our understanding of where Dallas will slot in each of the seven rounds, plus which pick they are sending to Miami in exchange for Robert Quinn.

1st Round (17) – 17th

2nd Round (19) – 51st

3rd Round (18) – 82nd

4th Round (17) – 122nd

5th Round (19) – 156th

5th Round Comp (2)- 180th

* 6th Round (18) – 199th – Traded to Miami Dolphins for Robert Quinn

7th Round (17) – 233rd

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