Why don’t the New Orleans Saints ever get any compensatory draft picks? The NFL’s process for awarding those extra selections is carefully guarded by the league office, but the analysts at Over The Cap have done a good job of approximating it based off historical results.
And what they’ve found is that it directly lines up with how active teams are in unrestricted free agency. The only teams that qualify for compensatory picks are those that lose more unrestricted free agents than they’ve added; that means the Saints, always aggressive in the open market, rarely lose more than they gain. But things might be different in 2020.
As many as 27 Saints players could hit the open market this offseason, though many of them are special teamers and career backups. We’re guessing that only 8 Saints free agents could end up qualifying in the compensatory pick formula, and it’s no sure thing that they all return (or get replaced by free agents; the Saints have several easy replacements in the building already). That opens the door for next year’s draft class to get reinforced with some additional picks.
The quality of compensatory selections awarded correlates with the per-year contract values of unrestricted free agents lost to other teams, with the most-valuable contracts translating to third-round picks while the lower-valued may only result in seventh-round selections. Thankfully, Over The Cap estimates the different tiers as such:
- 3rd round: $13 million or higher
- 4th round: $8.5 million to $13 million
- 5th round: $6.5 million to $8.5 million
- 6th round: $4 million to $6.5 million
- 7th round: $1.5 million to $4 million
With that in mind, here’s where we’re projecting each qualifying Saints free agent to factor into the compensatory formula.
CB Eli Apple
Estimated average annual salary: $3.75 million
Projected compensatory pick: 7th round
How much are teams going to buy into Apple’s late-season skid before his injury? He was rock-solid in coverage for the first half of 2019, living up to the hype his coaches spoke about during the offseason. But something seemed to switch in Apple when Marshon Lattimore missed time with a hamstring injury, and he ended up getting fouled five times in two games before his own injury sidelined him. If teams think Apple is a first-round draft bust and at best a reclamation project, he probably won’t break $4 million on the open market. But all it takes is one team to bet on his consistently-strong play from the bulk of last season and offer him $7 million or more per year.