Tag: Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy

Air Force at New Mexico: Can the Falcons beat the Lobos?

Air Force at New Mexico: Can the Falcons beat the Lobos? Can Air Force win their sixth straight against New Mexico? Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire WEEK 6: Air Force Falcons 1-4 (0-2 Mountain West) vs. New Mexico Lobos 1-4 (0-1 Mountain West) WHEN: …

Air Force at New Mexico: Can the Falcons beat the Lobos?

Can Air Force win their sixth straight against New Mexico?

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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WEEK 6: Air Force Falcons 1-4 (0-2 Mountain West) vs. New Mexico Lobos 1-4 (0-1 Mountain West)

WHEN: Saturday, October 12th, 5 p.m. MT

WHERE: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM

TV: truTV/MAX
JB Long, play by play
Mike Golic, Jr., analyst
Bridget Howard, reporter

SERIES HISTORY: Air Force leads the overall series, 26-14

GAME NOTES (PDF): Air Force | New Mexico

 

It’s already Week six, and either the Falcons or Lobos are going to find themselves in the win column in Conference play by Sunday. While both teams are winless in Mountain West play, Air Force is already two games in the hole, while New Mexico has suffered just one loss, coming from their matchup against Fresno State a few weeks back. You always want to win Conference games, but for two programs that could really use the extra practices for player development that come from a Bowl week, losing a fifth game on the year before week seven would all but end any dreams of a post season game.

The Lobos didn’t exactly enter the 2024 campaign labeled as Conference contenders, but this team is plenty interesting. They brought in a very established coach in Bronco Mendenhall, who by the way is 5-1 in his career against Air Force. New Mexico also had a massive influx of transfers with the coaching change, bringing in 42 players from other programs. Sprinkle in 11 returning starters, playmakers like Luke Wysong, Tavian Combs (injured) and Devon Dampier, and you can see why there is plenty of intrigue in Albuquerque.

Not all that different from the Lobos, Air Force had a massive roster overhaul. Now, the nature of the changes to their personnel, and certainly the way which they are limited to address it are in stark contrast. As most are aware, the Military Academies don’t have the benefit of the transfer portal, nor do they have conventional redshirt opportunities to develop their players. Now as some, and they will say that no transfer portal is an advantage as it is one less thing to worry about. That reality is highly debatable though.

Having 30 players now, who have started games for their first time this year, it’s fair to say the luxury of dipping into the pool might not of been a bad option to have. That is not the reality though. The harsh truth is, Troy Calhoun is looking for answers to a lot of questions, with very limited resources to pull from.

The Air Force offense has been dreadful, the defense hasn’t been a whole lot better, and now they are dealing with a litany of injuries. These are Biblical challenges, right out of the book of Job.

THE TALE OF THE TAPE

When comparing these two teams it’s hard to ignore the discrepancy in offensive production. The Lobos have thrown for nearly 1,000 yards more than the Falcons, are scoring 20+ more points per game and have double the passing and rushing touchdowns that Air Force has. You read that correct, the New Mexico Lobos have scored twice as many rushing touchdowns as the Air Force Fightin’ Falcons on the season. In fact, the Lobos quarterback, Devon Dampier has more rushing yards (333) than any two Air Force ball carriers combined.

Now, it is fair to point out, this New Mexico team has a top 25 scoring offense, averaging 32 points per game. But to be doubling up the Falcons in so many meaningful offensive statistics is troubling.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Lobos haven’t been nearly as productive. New Mexico is giving up more than 240 rush yards, on the way to surrendering almost 44 points per game. If ever this Air Force running game was going to find life, it has to be in Albuquerque.

CONCLUSION

Everyone is down on the Falcons right now. Rightfully so, as they haven’t inspired a lot of confidence with their on field play. Unfortunately for Air Force, injuries haven’t made rebounding from their third consecutive loss any easier.

It’s hard to believe the real perspective of this game is focusing on all the things that have to go the Falcon’s way, to give this team a chance. A chance against a one-win New Mexico Lobo’s team. But that that’s where we are right now. It’s about doing the little things right, and building on those small things.

 

It goes without saying, the offense has to be turnover free if Air Force wants to win this game. But they also have to avoid those drive killing penalties, which have started to rear far too often. And whether it’s Quentin Hayes or John Busha under center, the mesh point, pitch and exchange must be clean. This team has fumbled the ball eight times already, somehow they’ve lost just two of those fumbles. They should not try their “fumble luck”.

The real problem I suspect in this game is going to be the playmaking ability of New Mexico’s offense. Specifically, the off-schedule ability of Devon Dampier to make plays. He has thrown six picks on the year, so the defense needs to be very opportunistic when better discretion is compromised. The defense really must be assignment sound as well. This Falcon team looks less athletic and is far less experienced than teams of past, so the details and mental aspects of the game are imperative. Otherwise they are going to find themselves chasing athletes that they simply aren’t going to be able to match up well with.

There simply isn’t enough going well for Air Force to suggest they are going to beat a team with scoring potential. The offense, and the run game in particular need a jolt, and maybe giving Quentin Hayes a little more run under center can provide that. But if the line isn’t able to control the line of scrimmage, it doesn’t matter who is under center. That is why the game within the game is going to be so important this week.

You want to win every game you play. You are used to winning games against New Mexico. But if we are being honest about who this team is to date, there are no guaranteed wins. That’s why it is so important that the running game finds itself this week. They weren’t successful against what was statistically a very bad Wyoming team. Well, here is another chance to find some confidence. As the running game goes, so too does this team. A healthy rushing attack gives the defense relief, reducing the number of possessions of the opposition. Not to mention, it can downright wear out an opponent physically and mentally. Focus on finding your game Air Force, the results will come. I just don’t know it’s going to be the results we are hoping for yet, not this week anyways.

New Mexico 31 – Air Force 21

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Air Force vs. Navy: Simulation and Prediction

Our Simulations Says Navy Wins 14-7 Can Air Force Prove Our Simulation Wrong? Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire WEEK 5: Air Force Falcons 1-3 (0-2 Mountain West) vs. Navy Midshipmen 4-0 (3-0 AAC) WHEN: Saturday, October 5th, 10 a.m. MT WHERE: Falcon …

Our Simulations Says Navy Wins 14-7

Can Air Force Prove Our Simulation Wrong?

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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WEEK 5: Air Force Falcons 1-3 (0-2 Mountain West) vs. Navy Midshipmen 4-0 (3-0 AAC)

WHEN: Saturday, October 5th, 10 a.m. MT

WHERE: Falcon Stadium (Colorado Springs, CO)

TV: CBS
Rich Waltz, play by play
Ross Tucker, analyst
Tiff any Blackmon, reporter

SERIES HISTORY: Air Force leads the overall series, 34-22

GAME NOTES (PDF): Air Force | Navy

To this point, the 2024 season has Air Force and Navy at opposite ends of the success spectrum. The Mids have come out the gates blazing, taking care of business against lesser competition, while stacking a huge win against pre-season AAC favorite, Memphis.

The Falcons on the other hand, have struggled in every conceivable fashion to start the FBS portion of their schedule. Now losers of three straight, Troy Calhoun’s squad will need an unprecedented jump in play if they want to stop the bleeding and avoid an early elimination from the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy race.

If you are interested in a little more detailed look at these two schools and what has transpired to this point in the season, check out our work from earlier in the week. Air Force vs. Navy: A Look at the Academies

OUR SIMULATION

To add a wrinkle to this week’s preview, we’ve used the new College Football 25 game, from EA Sports to help project the winner.

In our simulation, Navy took down Air Force in a low scoring affair, winning 14-7. The ultimate decider was a Colin Ramos fumble return for a touchdown to give the Mids the lead and secure victory.

Statistics were rather pedestrian, as both quarterbacks threw for just over 50 yards. Neither team eclipsed 200 yards of total offense. I don’t think the EA Sports game got the memo yet, Blake Horvath and the Navy offense is a force to be reckoned with.

EXPECTATIONS FOR SATURDAY

Last year, the Air Force defense imposed their will on Navy. Defensively, they weren’t relenting a foot, much less a yard. Don’t be fooled by the final score, that was really done in mop-up time to end the game. The Mids were never a real threat to score on an outstanding Falcon defense, much less a threat to win the game.

Offensively for Air Force, a big pass play from Zach Larrier to Dane Kinamon is the marque explosive offensive play from the game. Unfortunately for the Falcons, neither player has eligibility left, nor do any of last years starting offensive lineman.

2024 projects to be very different. Navy quarterback, Blake Horvath, is top ten nationally in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and yards per carry. Not to mention, the guy has been carving teams up with his arm as well. The Mids have their offense hitting on all cylinders, and it actually looks a lot like some of the dynamic Air Force offenses from seasons past.

This years offense doesn’t mark even the slightest resemblance to that of the past, nor this years Naval Academy unit. Maybe with time and more experience, things will start to click. But as it stands, this is one of the least productive offenses in the country, and stunningly, much of it has to do with their inability to run the ball.

It’s not as if Navy has featured an iron-clad defense. To the contrary, they have surrendered points. But the Falcons have yet to figure things out, even against a very underwhelming Wyoming team. These are all ingredients to another year absence of the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy.

Games between these Military schools are always different. It is often said, and it’s just as often true. But the lack of any sign of life that suggest Air Force could threaten to score points at a clip that rivals Navy at this point would be nothing short of hope or optimism. There will be an “Ah ha” moment at some point for this Falcon offense. Maybe not to the extent we are used to seeing, but potential to improve is certainly there. I’m just not sure it’s this week, nor in the form of potential that can rival the team opposite them.

Navy has the standout quarterback, rolls two deep with outstanding fullbacks in Alex Tecza and Daba Fofana, and they are flanked by an outstanding playmaker in Eli Heidenreich. There are just too many weapons to contend with.

Navy 24- Air Force 13

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Air Force vs. Navy Week: A look at the Academies

Air Force vs. Navy Week: A look at the Academies Two Programs Heading in Opposite Directions Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire It is officially Air Force versus Navy week! The first round in the three-team battle for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy …

Air Force vs. Navy Week: A look at the Academies

Two Programs Heading in Opposite Directions

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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It is officially Air Force versus Navy week! The first round in the three-team battle for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy kicks off this Saturday in Colorado Springs. One of the great traditions in all of sports, the Falcons once dominated this series and were stingy possessors of the coveted trophy, securing it 21 times. Compare that to Navy’s 16 and Army’s 10*, and you could be fooled into thinking all is well at the Springs.

Not so much.

Despite having an overwhelmingly better season win total than Navy and Army the last few years, the CiC has become elusive to the Falcons, who last won the series in 2022. By contrast, Army has won the CiC five out of the last seven years. To put that into perspective, they started playing this series in 1972, and the Black Knights have secured the trophy five* of their 10* times in the last seven years. Impressive or disgusting? It depends on which of the three camps you stand.

And if your curious about the asterisk (*) by Army’s win total, do a quick internet search using the terms “Army Football Suspended Honor Code”. Or you can click here.

 

EXPERIENCE FUELS SUCCESS

The contrast between Navy and Air Force in 2024 has become blaring. Much of this is due in part because of the great progress Head Coach Brian Newberry and the Mids have made from last year. And if we’re being honest, there has to be a ton of credit given to their offensive coordinator, Drew Cronic. What he’s done with the development of the Mids offense under the controls of quarterback Blake Horvath is impressive to say the least.

Horvath is getting a ton of recognition this season, and rightfully so. He currently leads the American Athletic Conference in rushing and total touchdowns. If you have been following Navy for the past few years, basically since Malcolm Perry departed the program, then you know how desperate they have been for consistent quarterback play. As an Air Force fan, you have got to appreciate this challenge.

Horvath’s ascension and spectacular play should present a perfect case study for optimism among the Falcon faithful. The Navy quarterback was mired in a carousel of players rising and then falling down the depth chart in 2023. With the graduation of Tai Lavatai and Xavier Arline, Horvath entered this season with a clear path to take the reigns as the starter, despite a rocky 2023. And the investment has paid off. Take a look at the year over year progress from the Mids quarterback courtesy of Sports-Reference.

PASSING Season G Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Y/G Rate
2023 4 6 12 50 84 2 0 21 164
2024 4 30 44 68.2 637 7 1 159 238
Career 8 36 56 64.3 721 9 1 90.1 222
RUSHING Season G Att Yds Y/A TD Y/G
2023 4 37 183 4.9 0 45.8
2024 4 47 450 9.6 8 113
Career 8 84 633 7.5 8 79.1

Now looking at the Air Force quarterback situation, the production is a stark contrast. John Busha has started all four games this season, and if we are being honest, the offense hasn’t exactly flourished. But look at what Horvath’s production was in his first four starts, and it’s eerily similar. I am not saying Busha is poised to have the same type of breakout in production, definitely not. But what I am suggesting is, it takes time. And you cannot discount the reality of what an impact the pieces around the quarterback position makes.

Air Force is breaking new pieces at every position around Busha, basically. Navy took their lumps the past few years, but now have experience and skill surrounding their quarterback. Skill all over the field is a luxury that the Falcons have enjoyed for years, up until 2024. Now it’s their turn to take some lumps before molding the next core of Cadets to lead the program to another resurgence.

 

SPOILED BY SUCCESS

When you think about the challenge that this season has become for Air Force, it should be a healthy reminder of just how good they have been for some time. Very few teams in the nation have won as many games year after year as the Falcons have in the past five seasons. Navy by comparison, had fallen on very hard times before the promise of 2024. Their four wins to date, match or exceed their season win total for four of the past six seasons. Air Force won 9 or more games in that same span, winning 11 twice and 10 another. That is the kind of success that is incredibly hard to sustain, and equally impressive. Unfortunately, it also makes hard times that much more difficult. But perspective is worth bearing in mind.

In case your wondering, success over that period of time has included a fantastic run against Power Five (now Power Four) programs. The Falcons suffered their first loss to a school in the P4 over that same span, this year. Take a look at how the Academies have fared against P4 and P5 over the same period.

The Academies vs. P4 and P5 since 2018 season.

Air Force 4-1

Army 0-11

Navy 1-5

Full disclosure, for Navy in particular, there are a lot of really difficult matchups in those five losses, nearly all coming at the hands of Notre Dame.

CLOSING THOUGHTS

I think what makes this season’s rocky start so much more challenging is the success that Army and Navy have had. The Falcons have been a winning machine, closing with Bowl victories like clockwork for the past few seasons, and it’s gone relatively unnoticed by the National media.

Army and Navy are 1/3 of the way through this season, and their promising start has made them the darlings of much of the same media that has ignored the shear dominance that Air Force has exhibited on a yearly basis.

This coaching staff and program have shown a knack for rebounding and doing so with a statement and staying power. Let’s see if Troy Calhoun and crew and accelerate that rebound, starting October 5th against their rivals from Annapolis.

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Air Force at Wyoming: Can the Falcons defeat the Pokes?

Air Force at Wyoming: Can the Falcons defeat the Pokes? Will either team be able to find their scoring touch? Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire The Falcons look to rebound fresh off of their bye-week WEEK 4: Air Force Falcons 1-2 (0-1 Mountain West) …

Air Force at Wyoming: Can the Falcons defeat the Pokes?

Will either team be able to find their scoring touch?

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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The Falcons look to rebound fresh off of their bye-week

WEEK 4: Air Force Falcons 1-2 (0-1 Mountain West) vs. Wyoming Cowboys 0-4 (0-0 Mountain West)

WHEN: Saturday, September 28th, 6 p.m. MT

WHERE: War Memorial Stadium (Laramie, WY)

TV: CBS Sports Network
Rich Waltz, play by play
Robert Turbin, analyst
Amanda Guerra, reporter

SERIES HISTORY: Air Force leads the overall series, 31-27-3

GAME NOTES (PDF): Air Force | Wyoming

 

It’s hard to believe we are already a quarter of the way through the college football season. Yet with plenty left on the schedule, Saturday’s matchup looks dire for two programs desperate for a win.

Prior to losing their last two matchups, Air Force did win their season opener, albeit in less-than-spectacular fashion against Merrimack College. Maybe they should be glad it wasn’t against stiffer FCS competition, because Wyoming wasn’t as fortunate on their home turf, losing to an old familiar foe, the Idaho Vandals. With just a single win between these two programs, something has to give on Saturday.

SIMILAR STRUGGLES

There are a lot of similarities between the Falcons and Pokes in this young season. In most years, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. In 2024 thus far, it is company that shouldn’t be preferred. Inability to score points, beatings at the hands of a Big12 team and shaky play from what was anticipated to be very steady kicking games. All is not well North, nor South on I-25.

Both teams have struggled immensely on offense. A lot of attention will be given to their respective quarterback play when diagnosing their offensive woes, and rightfully so. Both John Busha and Evan Svoboda are in their first year as starting signal callers, and they have not gotten the kind of support from their surrounding cast that you would hope for, when breaking in a new quarterback.

In Busha’s case, he is one of what are now 24 players on the Falcons who have made their first career start this season. This is the most nationally, and no surprise a factor when you consider the teams early season struggles. This week’s depth chart still lists Busha as the starter, and if the offense is going to start to find their stride, he’s got to take better care of the ball and make quicker decisions. Two things that are made much easier when you enjoy the luxury of an elite offensive line and experienced personnel at the skill positions. Maybe that will be the case in time, but right now, they are trying to figure things out.

This is not the Falcon offense of 2023. Nor should it be expected with all of the aforementioned turnover and new starters. I also don’t think it was a unit expected to rank 130th or worse nationally in Scoring Offense, Total Offense, Pass Efficiency or First Downs. For context, there are 133 teams in the FBS, and Air Force is dead last in Passing Offense, Pass Efficiency and First Downs. While Air Force usually is near the bottom nationally in passing offense (yards), that is typically because they are leading the nation in rushing offense. Not even close this year, as the ground game hasn’t quite found its way. And to be last in Pass Efficiency and First Down is unheard of for an Air Force Falcons team. These are hard times the offense has fallen on.

“Hard Times” sounds like it could be an old song played around the campfire. Which would be fitting because the Cowboys are singing it as well. They too rank outside of the top 130 nationally in Scoring Offense, Total Offense and Passing Efficiency. It should be worth mentioning though, their red-zone offense is tied for first nationally. While trips to the red-zone haven’t come often for the Pokes, they’ve made them count.

As bad as things have been on the offensive side of the ball in Laramie, the defense hasn’t been a whole lot better. This is much more surprising when you look at the personnel they have on that side of the ball. Wyoming was a stout defensive team under Craig Bohl, and that same expectation was there with new head coach Jay Sawvel. Unfortunately for the Pokes, this year’s team does not resemble those of the past, defensively. And boy could they use some of that juice right now.

 

Air Force has not fared much better, statistically at least. Don’t be fooled by Baylor scoring 31 points though. The defense was left on the field way too long, for far too many drives. After enough punts and turnovers, the levee broke, and much of that damage came in the fourth quarter. Were it not for stellar performances the previous two games, San Jose State may have routed the Falcons, and they very well may have suffered a similar fate as Wyoming, losing to an FCS opponent in the opener.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN LARAMIE

At risk of sounding redundant, anyone familiar with the production that Air Force lost from last years roster knew this would be a transition year. For the Falcons, it’s more about deciphering what a transition from a perennial 9 or 10-win team is. It is still too early to tell, especially with injuries starting to pile up on an already taxed roster. But if this team wants to make a push towards being in Bowl contender conversations by years end, this is the game to stack one in the win column. A loss makes the trajectory look eerily similar to that forgettable 2012 season.

These are typically low scoring affairs between Air Force and Wyoming, even in years which they’ve featured more prolific offenses. Traveling to Laradise has also proven to be a problem for some very good Falcon teams. Points are going to be at a premium, I don’t care what Bet ESPN says, there won’t be 34 points scored in this game. They somehow have Air Force favored by four, even that very well may exceed the point total for this contest.

 

With all the rhetoric around offensive deficiencies, and inconsistent kicking games, don’t sleep on the other aspect of special teams. Something to watch out for if you are Air Force, is the kick return game of Wyoming. Tyler King has already returned one to the house, and this is exactly the kind of game where field position from a strong return can affect the outcome.

Another thing to watch out for is points off of turnovers. Air Force forced three turnovers against both Baylor and Merrimack. Wyoming is near the bottom nationally in turnover margin and turnovers gained. It’s not as if the Falcons have been pristine with ball protection either, now would not be the time to help improve the Cowboys standing in this statistical area.

A fumble return for a touchdown, pick six or a special teams score could loom very large in a game like this. Even with a less than impressive showing by the Wyoming defense to date, there is a history that suggest they aren’t going to surrender yards in this game, and there are a number of players on that defense that may be able to validate that. Especially when you look in the trenches.

It’s crazy to say your optimistic coming off of a performance that your offense didn’t score a single touchdown, but I’m going to say it. Their last game saw the most productive rushing attack of the season, and the more players like Kemper Hodges, Cade Harris and Aiden Calvert can get a little daylight, you should see continued growth of the offense. I just don’t know that we will see enough improvement to say with confidence this team is going to find the endzone with any consistency. Not yet anyways.

Laramie has been inhospitable, and don’t expect that to change, regardless of Wyoming’s record. I have to see more from the Air Force offense to feel really confident in wins going forward. This happens to be a game that even if the offense were in a better place, it’s hard to predict a Falcon win traveling to Laradise.

Look for another low scoring affair. I’m anxious to be wrong, so let’s make it happen Air Force.

Air Force 9 – Wyoming 13

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Air Force vs. Merrimack: How the Falcons can beat the Warriors

Air Force vs. Merrimack: How the Falcons can beat the Warriors Will Troy Calhoun and the Falcons Stay Perfect Against FCS Competition Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire Can Air Force keep on rolling despite replacing most of last years starters? WEEK …

Air Force vs. Merrimack: How the Falcons can beat the Warriors

Will Troy Calhoun and the Falcons Stay Perfect Against FCS Competition

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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Can Air Force keep on rolling despite replacing most of last years starters?

WEEK 1: Air Force Falcons 0-0 vs. Merrimack College Warriors 0-0

WHEN: Saturday, Aug. 31, 1:30 p.m. MT

WHERE: Falcon Stadium (Colorado Springs, CO)

TV: CBS Sports Network; Chris Lewis- play by play, Robert Turbin- Analyst and Amanda Guerra- reporter

GAME NOTES (PDF): Air Force

 

The wait is finally over, Air Force football has arrived! The last time we saw the Falcons in action, they were pummeling James Madison in the Armed Forces Bowl. This of course was the win to stop a four-game losing skid to end the regular season, which ironically was preceded by a blazing 8-0 start to the year. A lot of ups and downs along the ride to a 9-win campaign.

The reset button has been pressed, and we will be seeing a very different team in 2024. The hope is to have similar results to what Troy Calhoun has been able to manifest consistently in Colorado Springs over the years, but with a lot of new starters.

Historically, the season opener for Air Force has often been an FCS opponent, and with very consistent results. A win. The Falcons are 27-0 all-time against the FCS, while Troy Calhoun has led the team to victory in 17 of those wins. Standing in the way of a 1-0 start to the 2024 season are the Merrimack College Warriors from the FCS level MAAC.

The Warriors were 5-6 last season, finishing sixth in their conference with a 4-3 record. Last years team was led by running back Tyvon Edmonds Jr. who rushed for more than 1,200 yards and collected 10 touchdowns. Well Edmonds Jr. has since transferred to Robert Morris University, who Air Force opened the season against last year.

Trying to fill the void for all those rushing yards this year will predominantly be Donovan Wadley, who is on the Walter Payton Award Watch List. Wadley ran for just over 200 yards last year, averaging over 6 yards per carry on the way to three touchdowns. The belief is that he will be able to deliver at a very high level with the increased opportunities. He is the first player from Merrimack to ever be named to the Award’s pre-season list.

They also return their starting quarterback from last year, Malakai Anthony, who presents as a dual threat. Expect Merrimack to lean on their ground.

 

PREDICTION

At risk of marginalizing their opponent Saturday, the focus for Air Force will be a lot more about chemistry, execution and exiting the game healthy. There are a lot of new players in critical positions that will be getting acclimated as starters against the Warriors. This is the time work the kinks out, before speeding right into Conference play against San Jose State in week two.

Expect John Busha, Dylan Carson and the newly crested offensive line to get to work early and often before relenting to some depth players as the game wears on. The same should be said for the defense with a lot of new guys in the starting line-up, supported by some absolute studs like Payton Zdroik, Camby Goff and Jamari Bellamy.

Colorado Springs is a long way from North Andover, Massachusetts. Thankfully the weather is outstanding this time of year in Colorado, because that should be more enjoyable for Merrimack than the game, unfortunately. It will be good to find their rhythm against an FCS opponent before the competition really stiffens for the balance of the Air Force 2024 calender.

Air Force 38 – Merrimack 9

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Mountain West Wire Game of the Week Simulation: UNLV at Air Force

Mountain West Wire Game of the Week Simulation: UNLV at Air Force The NCAA 14 Video Game Predicts Air Force over UNLV 16-13 Contact/Follow @PSeanU1 & @MWCwire For those new to our simulations, we use the College Football Revamped version of EA …

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Mountain West Wire Game of the Week Simulation: UNLV at Air Force

The NCAA 14 Video Game Predicts Air Force over UNLV 16-13

Contact/Follow @PSeanU1 & @MWCwire

For those new to our simulations, we use the College Football Revamped version of EA Sports NCAA14, with updated 2024 rosters. There is no user impact, just a computer simulation of the given teams.

Last week our simulation favored Wyoming over UNLV by a score of 31-14. As you should know by now, things certainly didn’t play out that way on the field, as the Rebels nearly flipped that score, hammering the Pokes 34-14.

This weeks featured game reflects the matchup with the most consequence in the Mountain West Conference in week 12, as UNLV visits Colorado Springs, to play Air Force.

Contrary to reality of late, our simulation favored the Falcons, beating UNLV 16-13. The only thing as surprising as the score favoring Air Force would be the statistics behind it. The Reb’s held Air Force under 100 yards rushing for the game, while grinding out for 119 on the ground of their own. The thing more surprising here was Jensen Jones throwing for over 200 yards.

Keeping with the theme of turnovers, the Falcons couldn’t catch a break even in the sim as they coughed the ball up twice. Despite winning the turnover battle 2-0 and holding the Falcons to just over 90 yards rushing, UNLV still couldn’t win this game. The most notable reason would have to be the opposing defense.

I don’t know if this will be reflective of the result or even close on the scoreboard for Saturday’s game, but you have to believe with those stat lines we are going to be looking at a pretty emphatic victory for the Rebels.

When these two teams meet on the field Saturday, the likelihood of a spot in the Mountain West Championship game is at stake. Hopefully we have as competitive game as our simulation suggests.

If you have a strong opinion on who should be our featured simulation next week, let us hear about it @MWCwire. 

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Air Force vs. UNLV: How the Falcons can beat UNLV

Air Force vs. UNLV: How the Falcons can beat UNLV The Rebels are Coming to the Springs Full of Confidence Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire Can the Falcons regain form against UNLV with a spot in the Conference Championship on the line? WEEK 12: Air …

Air Force vs. UNLV: How the Falcons can beat UNLV

The Rebels are Coming to the Springs Full of Confidence

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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Can the Falcons regain form against UNLV with a spot in the Conference Championship on the line?

WEEK 12: Air Force Falcons 8-2 (5-1) vs. University of Nevada Las Vegas Rebels 8-2 (5-1)

WHEN: Saturday, November 18th — 1:30 P.M. MT/ 12:30 P.M. PT

WHERE: Falcon Stadium (Colorado Springs, CO)

WEATHER: Sunshine and some clouds. High 62F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph.

TV: CBS Sports Network
Carter Blackburn (play-by-play), Randy Cross (analyst)

RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver, SIRIUS XM 380, SXM 970
Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)

SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads the series record 17-6

WEBSITES: UNLVRebels.com, the official UNLV athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): UNLV | Air Force

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 7.2

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 4.1

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTIONS: Air Force has a 79.31% win probability (31.96- 21.13)

It’s hard to believe we have arrived at Senior night already, as many Falcon players will take the field in front of their home crowd for the last time in their careers on Saturday. And what a special senior class this is, winning 31 games against just 11 losses in their tenure to date. The stakes for this team could not be any higher in their final game at Falcon Stadium in 2023.

Despite two absolute clunkers in as many weeks against Hawai’i and Army, the Falcons are still in the driver’s seat for a place in the Mountain West Conference Championship game in December thanks to their historic 8-0 start to the season. Though much has changed since those first eight games.

The Air Force list of injuries (should they “officially” share it) would be very lengthy. In fact, half of its’ starting roster would have been impacted by injury at this point, really testing their depth and mettle. Noone is going to feel sorry for the Falcons though, especially not the UNLV Rebels who are trying to put together a historic season of their own.

These are not your Rebels of old. Barry Odom has done a fantastic job turning what’s been a basement dweller into a Bonafide Conference Contender in his first season. Troy Calhoun on the other hand is trying to rally his team, injury ravaged as it is, and capture their first Conference Championship.

A third loss in a row would significantly complicate those aspirations for the Falcons. If they want to keep those hopes alive, they need to play much better in every aspect of the game against one of, if not the top team in the Conference.

HERE’S HOW AIR FORCE CAN BEAT UNLV

While it’s Air Force that usually imposes their will with a dominant ground attack, it’s the Rebels who are featuring a deep rushing attack of their own with Vincent Davis, Ja’Den Thomas, and Donavyn Lester all amassing more than 400 yards on the ground this year. The quarterback is also very much a threat on the ground, they need to account for Jayden Maiava too. As a team, they are averaging just under 200 yards per game on the ground.

The Falcons are going to need to keep that ground game in check if they want to win this game. If they aren’t able to mitigate damage on the ground, it could open up a host of problems as arguably the most dangerous player in the Conference, Ricky White looms on the outside.

Despite injuries to the defensive line and linebacker (spur), they still have the personnel to do it; especially between that core of Alec Mock, Jonathan Youngblood and Peyton Zdroik. These guys are going to be key in trying to keep UNLV unbalanced on offense.

Speaking of the run game, Air Force finds themselves in unfamiliar territory, no longer being the nation’s leading rush offense, as that belongs to Liberty. It’s no coincidence as the offense has been stuck in neutral for the past two weeks. Much of their drop off in production has to be attributed to their recent loose handling of the football.

Ten turnovers in their last two outings made for irrecoverable damage to their gameplan. They have put the ball on the ground 17 times this season, recovering seven of them. Their first interception of the year didn’t come until the week 10 game against Army. Between Zac Larrier, Jensen Jones and Ben Brittain, they’ve thrown four since then. That rate of turnover is not Falcon football, and it is certainly not winning football.

So, while injuries certainly have created some adversity, they’ve not been responsible for 10 turnovers in two games. Everyone is dealing with some level of attrition at this part of the season. Due to the rigors placed on these Cadet-Athletes, I would say Air Force is to anticipate such challenges more than most at this juncture. Whoever’s called upon to contribute Saturday, has to protect the football. It has got to be a point of emphasis if they want to beat a really good opponent.

The final area that really needs to find its way again is the kicking game. Specifically, Matthew Dapore and the field goal unit. Dapore has showed the potential of an All-Conference kicker but over the past few weeks has struggled with consistency. In a game where points are going to be critical and the margin for error minimal, they need that steady leg variety of Dapore back.

There are a lot of questions at key positions this week, especially on offense. One thing we know, next man up is not just a fashionable statement in Colorado Springs. This team has proven they can win with it at the core of their DNA.

Injuries or not, that 8-0 team is in the Air Force locker room. The past two weeks have been ugly, but those two performances constitute not the 2023 Air Force Falcons. This is still a very dangerous team that is more than capable of winning a Conference Championship if and when they get back to their game. Their game is meticulous to the details, stifling defense, and a relentless rushing attack that keeps the ball from you, not the other way around. That team has Air Force on the brink of a Conference Championship, despite what happened the previous two weeks.

After losing despite being 20+ point favorites, this week’s line looks right. UNLV is not going to like playing at altitude.

Air Force 24 –  UNLV 21

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Air Force at Hawaii: How the Falcons can beat the Rainbow Warriors

Air Force at Hawaii: How the Falcons can beat the Rainbow Warriors The Falcons Are Looking To Stay Perfect In Conference Play Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire Can Air Force Rebound After a Week 10 Letdown? WEEK 11: Air Force Falcons 8-1 (5-0) vs. …

Air Force at Hawaii: How the Falcons can beat the Rainbow Warriors

The Falcons Are Looking To Stay Perfect In Conference Play

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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Can Air Force Rebound After a Week 10 Letdown?

WEEK 11: Air Force Falcons 8-1 (5-0) vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 3-7 (1-4)

WHEN: Saturday, November 11th — 10:00 P.M. MT/ 9:00 P.M. PT

WHERE: Clarence T.C. Ching Complex ( Honolulu, O‘ahu)

WEATHER: Mainly clear skies. Low 74F. Winds ENE at 10 to 20 mph.

TV: Spectrum- Kanoa Leahey (play-by-play), Rich Miano (analyst), Jordan Helle (sidelines)

RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver, SIRIUS XM 380, SXM 970
Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)

SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads the series record 14-7-1

WEBSITES: HawaiiAthletics.com, the official Hawaii athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Hawaii | Air Force

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 22

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 20.6

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTIONS:

Exactly one week after the most disappointing outings in recent memory, Air Force has an opportunity to get off the mat and realize a new mission. The Kuter trophy, which is awarded to the winner of the Hawaii versus Air Force game is hardly a consolation for fumbling away the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy. Yes, (bad) pun intended.

However, it’s much more than just the trophy that is at state on the island Saturday night. While winning the CiC outright is no longer possible, something the Falcons have never done in their history is still very much alive and in front of them. A Mountain West Conference Championship.

You would think the season was over for Air Force after last week’s stumble. They fell out of the College Football Playoff rankings just as soon as they entered, dropped to the rear of the race for a New Years Six Bowl bid and yet they’ve lost just one game all year, none of which have come in Conference play. The only team in the entire Mountain West that can say that.

If Air Force wants to reinforce how much those games against military brethren mean, they cannot allow Army to beat them twice this year by not showing up at Hawaii on Saturday.

HERE’S HOW AIR FORCE CAN BEAT THE RAINBOW WARRIORS

While I fancy myself more of a New Testament guy, an Old Testament verse is most apropos for Saturday; Vengeance is mine saith (Air Force).

It’s almost eerie how similar Hawaii and Army are as it relates to their disparate comparisons to Air Force in nearly every significant team statistical category. None of that mattered last week, as the Falcons took a season’s worth of miscues and bundled them into a single gift-wrapped package delivered to Mile High Stadium.

That is why for week 11 against the Rainbow Warriors, we are going to simplify the blueprint to victory. Be the Air Force team from the first 10 weeks of the season.

Get a ground game established behind that elite offensive line. Even if that means an exercise of patience. The dive will feed the pitch, the pitch will feed the dive. A steady diet of Emmanuel Michel, Owen Burk and John Lee Eldridge II will lead to the ultimate demise of Hawaii. Continue working in Dane Kinamon, and the offense only becomes more dynamic.

This is an opponent surrendering 176 yards on the ground and 34 points per game. That presents nearly ideal as a rebound candidate. If the Falcon defense can continue their high level of play, Bo Richter and crew are going to make it a long night for Brayden Schager and the Hawaii offense. Which in turn will make for an even longer night for their overextended and fatigued defense.

And after three weeks of struggling in the kicking game, now would be a good time to see Matthew Dapore get back to form that resembled an All-Conference kicker. Air Force has been and can be a complete football team.

The road ahead is a difficult one for a team that has ambitions of a Conference Championship. With games against Boise State and UNLV looming, they cannot look past this week’s opponent. This truly is a ‘get right game’ for the Falcons.

No better time to shake off the seasons first loss and regain form, than a convincing win in paradise.

Back to basics.

Protect the ball. Run the ball. Sing second.

Air Force 35 –  Hawaii 17

A SPECIAL THANKS TO ALL YOU MILITARY VETERANS

It’s a privilege to have the opportunity to write about a team of young men that I feel are representing all that is best in us as people. And it is with immense respect and a heart full of gratitude that I express my sincerest thanks to all the Veterans out there providing a way of life that I am able to enjoy because of the sacrifices you make. On behalf of my family and so many others, Thank you.

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Mountain West Wire Game of the Week Simulation: UNLV vs. Wyoming

Mountain West Wire Game of the Week Simulation: UNLV vs. Wyoming The NCAA 14 Video Game Says Wyoming drops the Reb’s 31-14 Contact/Follow @PSeanU1 & @MWCwire For those new to our simulations, we use the College Football Revamped version of EA Sports …

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Mountain West Wire Game of the Week Simulation: UNLV vs. Wyoming

The NCAA 14 Video Game Says Wyoming drops the Reb’s 31-14

Contact/Follow @PSeanU1 & @MWCwire

For those new to our simulations, we use the College Football Revamped version of EA Sports NCAA14, with updated 2024 rosters. There is no user impact, just a computer simulation of the given teams.

Last week our simulation favored Fresno State of Boise State by a score of 21-20. While Saturday’s game played out to a different score on the field, the end result matched our sim for the first time over the past five weeks!

In this Friday’s matchup between UNLV and Wyoming, both teams are going to hope for better redzone results than were experienced in this weeks simulation. Despite scoring 31 points, Wyoming scored on just one of their five trips to the red zone. No better, UNLV scored twice on their seven trips inside the 20. The result was a 31-14 victory for the visiting Cowboys.

With no turnovers on either side and very comparable passing numbers, the final score is a little headscratching. While Andrew Peasley had a solid game throwing the ball, Harrison Waylee was the real difference maker, accruing over 100 yards on the ground for the Pokes. The Reb’s weren’t able to must 70 on the ground as a team.

The biggest difference was in special teams, and that was despite just one field goal attempt all game. Punt returns and field position are what really helped propel Wyoming in this one.

These are two good Mountain West teams meeting on Friday night. Let’s see if the outcome on the field resembles the simulation this week!

If you have a strong opinion on who should be our featured simulation next week, let us hear about it @MWCwire. 

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Mountain West Wire Game of the Week Simulation: Fresno State vs. Boise State

Mountain West Wire Game of the Week Simulation: Fresno State vs. Boise State The NCAA 14 Video Game Says Fresno State tops Boise 21-20 Contact/Follow @PSeanU1 & @MWCwire For those new to our simulations, we use the C ollege Football Revamped version …

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Mountain West Wire Game of the Week Simulation: Fresno State vs. Boise State

The NCAA 14 Video Game Says Fresno State tops Boise 21-20

Contact/Follow @PSeanU1 & @MWCwire

For those new to our simulations, we use the College Football Revamped version of EA Sports NCAA14, with updated 2024 rosters. There is no user impact, just a computer simulation of the given teams.

Last week saw UNLV eek one out over Fresno State in our simulation. However, when the two actually met on the gridiron, it was Fresno coming away with the win in a thriller.

For the second week in a row, the losing team of the prior weeks simulated matchup gets a shot at redemption. This time, it’s the Fresno State Bulldogs who are coming off a loss in our simulation to UNLV, to now face Boise State. And it was sweet victory the second time around for the Bulldogs! Mikey Keene outdueled Taylen Green, tossing three tuddies to help secure the victory.

The simulation didn’t implore a quarterback rotation like you’ll probably see from Boise this week, it was Taylen Green the whole way. Ironically, Green was pretty effective throwing the ball for nearly 300 yards, but had two costly turnovers.

Just as surprising was the ability of Fresno State to outgain the Broncos on the ground. I’m not sure many would expect that assuming Ashton Jeanty is in the lineup, but that’s why we love the simulations- expect the unexpected!

This marks the fourth consecutive week that our simulation winner has lost the matchup on the field. With the exception of our sim reflecting Air Force being blown out by Wyoming, every game has been close. Each of these games have also played out similarly on the field, with all four games being coming down to a single score difference.

If you have a strong opinion on who should be our featured simulation next week, let us hear about it @MWCwire. 

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