Tag: College Football Predictions

Kirk Herbstreit predicts national championship winner

ESPN college football analyst Kirk Herbstreit thinks a Big Ten team will win the College Football Playoff, bring home a national title

ESPN “College GameDay” analyst and college football expert Kirk Herbstreit has predicted who he thinks will win the national championship. Herbstreit thinks the Oregon Ducks will win their first national title.

Herbstreit has the Georgia Bulldogs as his No. 1 seed in the 12-team College Football Playoff, but he does not think Georgia will win a national title despite winning the SEC.

He predicts Ohio State will win the Big Ten to earn the No. 2 seed. Herbstreit likes Clemson to win the ACC and has Clemson as his No. 3 seed. The former Ohio State quarterback predicts Utah will win the Big 12 in its first season in the conference to earn the No. 4 seed.

Herbstreit’s national champion, Oregon, is the No. 5 seed in the playoff. He expects either the Ducks or the winner of the first-round game between No. 8 Penn State vs. No. 9 Notre Dame will beat Georgia in the playoff.

Herbstriet also has Texas (No. 6), Missouri (No. 7), Florida State (No. 10), Michigan (No. 11) and Boise State (No. 12) making the 12-team playoff.

Perhaps Herbstreit’s biggest surprise is that he does not have Alabama making the playoff. “You totally disrespected Alabama, man. I can’t believe it,” said former Alabama coach Nick Saban.

Herbstreit loves how the expanded playoff makes it more interesting and competitive for teams that have one or two losses. In the past, many fan bases would check out after a few losses. Now, more teams will stay relevant for much longer into the season.

Kirk Herbstreit and the GameDay crew made their national championship predicts in Week 0 before the Georgia Tech-Florida State game.

Texas DT Alfred Collins hasn’t broke out, but could in 2024

Alfred Collins’ breakout could be imminent. We share why it hasn’t happened yet.

There are roughly 95 days until the Texas Longhorns kicks off against Colorado State to begin the college football season. 95 is, of course, the number Alfred Collins wears. Collins, the former five-star prospect, hasn’t yet realized his five-star potential, but is primed to break out in 2024.

Some might already label the player a bust or write off his ability to contribute. After all, if he’s really as good as he was projected to be we should have seen it by now, they might suggest. That’s a logical outsider perspective, but not the full story.

Alfred Collins isn’t a bust. In fact, you could argue we actually have seen Collins play like a five-star. We’ve seen him throw NFL tackle Anton Harrison to the ground before sacking Spencer Rattler. We’ve seen him snag a one-handed interception in a bowl game. We just haven’t seen enough of it, because he hasn’t had enough chances to play.

Collins simply hasn’t gotten opportunities yet due to injury and defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski’s situational designations for the defensive lineman.

Kwiatkowski famously placed Collins in a situational role that didn’t see the field much in 2021. Why? Perhaps because Collins wasn’t big enough to play three-technique but not lean enough to play edge in Kwiatkowski’s scheme. One of many failures to the 2021 defensive philosophy was trying to fit players to a scheme rather than fitting the scheme to players. That appeared to have changed after the 5-7 showing.

Collins’ progress was further stunted by injuries that limited his ability to pack on muscle and gain weight to move into the defensive tackle position in past offseason. Then, of course, defensive tackles Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat became All-Americans and prevented Collins from moving up the depth chart.

Fast forward to the 2024 offseason. Collins is mammoth-sized having finally grown into a defensive tackle. Kwiakowski should play him as often as possible this season. The senior now checks in at 321 pounds.

So why hasn’t the once undersized converted defensive end with ill-timed injuries broke out at defensive tackle yet? The question answers itself.

Texas’ T’Vondre Sweat and Keondre Coburn went from underachieving multi-year starters to breakout players in their last season in Austin. Collins will look to continue the trend in 2024.

On3 Sports releases its 2025 five-star update with 32 players included

Several Texas targets are included in the five-star update.

One five-star update is out as we enter a critical time in the 2025 recruiting cycle. Several players with elite acclaim are considering Texas.

On3 Sports shared its five-star update with a few familiar names for those who follow the Texas Longhorns in recruiting.

The list of notable names includes wide receivers Dakorien Moore, Kaliq Lockett, and Jaime Ffrench, top athlete Michael Terry, impactful offensive linemen Michael Fasusi and Ty Haywood and defensive backs Devin Sanchez, Jonah Williams and Dorian Brew.

Several of the above names could choose elsewhere, but the Longhorns could be in position to win out with multiple players on the list.

Texas is no stranger to adding several five-stars having signed 10 of 247Sports’ composite five-stars over the last three seasons. The Longhorns signed four composite five-stars in each of the last two recruiting classes.

Texas’ list of composite five-star additions includes the following players.

  • Arch Manning, quarterback, No. 1 overall in 2023 class
  • DJ Campbell, guard, No. 10 overall in 2022 class
  • Anthony Hill Jr, linebacker, No. 18 overall in 2023 class
  • Colin Simmons, edge, No. 18 overall in 2024 class
  • CJ Baxter, running back, No. 22 overall in 2023 class
  • Johntay Cook, wide receiver, No. 29 overall in 2023 class
  • Brandon Baker, offensive tackle, No. 32 overall in 2024 class
  • Kelvin Banks Jr, offensive tackle, No. 33 overall in 2022 class
  • Kobe Black, cornerback, No. 34 overall in 2024 class
  • Xavier Filsaime, safety, No. 37 overall in 2024 class

The Longhorns’ recruiting class rankings might not be that different from those under the past coaching regime, but make no mistake: Head coach Steve Sarkisian is getting elite players at premium positions rather than securing high rankings by adding a high volume of four-stars.

Sarkisian will look to close on a few more talented recruits in the 2025 class.

Texas ranks No. 1 among SEC teams in returning offensive line snaps

For the most part, Texas’ offensive line is back.

Experience, continuity and cohesion are paramount for an offensive line. Texas’ offensive line unit has it all.

According to one metric, the Texas Longhorns return 83% of their offensive line snaps from the 2023 season. The returning snap percentage puts the team No. 1 in the Longhorns’ new conference at the position. That paired with the talent and experience of the unit make it one of the best offensive lines in the SEC.

Center Jake Majors enters what should be his fourth full season as the starting center. Majors started a couple games in the 2020 season as well. Top 2025 NFL draft prospect Kelvin Banks Jr. and Hayden Conner enter third seasons as starters while Devon Campbell Jr. and Cole Hutson have split time at starter the last two seasons.

Kentucky (78%), LSU (75%) and Georgia (74%) return the next most snaps in the conference along the offensive line. Alabama (52%), Arkansas (41%), Oklahoma (17%) and Mississippi State (4%) return the least snaps in the conference up front.

Texas plays a mix of some of the most experienced lines in the SEC. Opposing teams rank as follows in returning snaps within the league: No. 2 Kentucky, No. 3 LSU, No. 5 Texas A&M (66%), No. 7 Vanderbilt (60%), No. 12 Florida (54%), No. 14 Arkansas, No. 15 Oklahoma and No. 16 Mississippi State.

Presumably, Oklahoma will have a better offensive line than Vanderbilt, but the inexperience of many of Texas’ opponents bodes well for a Longhorns defensive line that replaces Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat. Texas will face four of the five teams with the least returning snaps from last season. The lack of continuity could lead to less cohesion, and breakdown in communication could follow.

The Longhorns are on the side you want to be on in returning offensive line snaps. They project to be a Top 10 line in college football next season.

Texas ranks No. 4 in SP+ college football rankings for 2024 season

Texas is a Top 4 college football team in Bill Connely’s SP+ rankings.

Texas is a Top 4 team in college football for 2024. ESPN’s Bill Connely’s metrics back up that sentiment.

Connely released early SP+ rankings for the upcoming college football season. It comes as no surprise the Longhorns ranked highly on the list. Texas checks in at No. 4 behind Georgia, Ohio State and Oregon. That’s probably about where it belongs.

ESPN’s SP+ ratings take returning production, recruiting and recent history into account. The Longhorns fared well in all three categories for the metric.

Inside Texas’ Joe Cook noted where each of Texas’ scheduled opponents rank in SP+ for the cycle. Below is the Longhorns’ schedule with each opponent’s SP+ rankings.

  1. Colorado State – No. 98
  2. Michigan – No. 6
  3. UTSA – No. 53
  4. Louisiana-Monroe – No. 134
  5. Mississippi State – No. 68
  6. Oklahoma – No. 15
  7. Georgia – No. 1
  8. Vanderbilt – No. 97
  9. Florida – No. 33
  10. Arkansas – No. 46
  11. Kentucky – No. 25
  12. Texas A&M – No. 13

Interesting takeaways from the above rankings begin with the fact that Texas faces a tough, but manageable schedule. The Longhorns are given four Top 15 opponents in Georgia, Michigan, Texas A&M and Oklahoma. Kentucky and Florida are sneaky good matchups at No. 25 and No. 33, but both will be in Austin.

UTSA appears to be significantly better than Mississippi State in the metric. Vanderbilt and Colorado State appear to be the same level of difficulty if the ratings are accurate. Louisiana-Monroe is ranked as the worst team in FBS football according to the SP+ ratings.

How does Texas fare in 2024? It will face No. 6 Michigan and No. 13 Texas A&M on the road. Additionally, the Longhorns host No. 1 Georgia in Austin and take on No. 15 Oklahoma in Dallas. That’s a tough stretch, but one in which Texas probably doesn’t go winless.

The Longhorns do match up well with Michigan and at some places seem to have an advantage against Oklahoma. Texas A&M will break in a new coaching staff and in many ways a new roster. We’ll have a better idea how accurate the ratings are after the first couple weeks of the season.

Andy Staples releases his post-spring college football Top 25

Staples makes interesting rankings predictions for several teams.

The Texas Longhorns once again crack the Top 5 of a preseason analyst’s poll. On3 Sports’ Andy Staples has the Longhorns as the No. 5 team in college football.

As the only 2023 playoff team that returns its head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator and starting quarterback the ranking is warranted. Texas enters its third year with all four as well as several multi-year starters on the offensive line. That’s stability.

Staples’ ranking of Texas doesn’t preclude the Longhorns from competing for a national title. He has stated that at its peak, the team could win it all this season. There just appears to be more faith in four other teams ahead of Texas.

There were interesting rankings given by Staples for several teams. The first is the Alabama Crimson Tide who is given full benefit of the doubt at No. 3. Other teams that appear to be over-ranked are Miami (No. 13), Notre Dame (No. 8) and Auburn (No. 20).

As for teams ranked too low there are a handful of candidates. The list starts with No. 9 Ole Miss and No. 14 Missouri who both won New Years Six bowls a season ago, won 11 games and return plenty from the last team they fielded. No. 17 LSU and No. 24 Oklahoma seem ranked too low on the list as well.

Regardless of differences from other rankings, the Longhorns are a clear contender according to Staples. They kick off the season against Colorado State on ESPN.

College Football News predicts five SEC teams will make playoff

Five SEC playoff teams? It’s possible and almost likely.

The SEC has dominated the four team College Football Playoff. It might own the 12-team tournament as well.

College Football News’ Pete Fiutak released his early SEC football preview and predictions on Monday. Among its bold predictions is that the league will have five teams in the upcoming playoff. Here’s his reasoning.

“If there was a 12-team playoff format last year, Alabama (4), Georgia (6), Missouri (9), and Ole Miss (11) would’ve been in. Texas (3) would’ve been in, too, and Oklahoma (12) and LSU (13) would’ve barely been on the outside looking in.

Four other conference champions are automatically in, and several Big Ten teams will get in, too, but assume Georgia, LSU, and Texas will get that 10-2 mark or better, and two more out of Alabama, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, and Tennessee will find their way in.”

The analysis could be correct. We had five SEC teams in our recent College Football Playoff prediction in Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss, Alabama and Tennessee. The prediction saw LSU just missing the playoff as a sixth 10-win SEC team.

Believe it or not, even Missouri and Texas A&M have a favorable enough schedule to win 10 games and make a playoff. I have both going 9-3.

Four other automatic bids for conference champions could limit how many teams the SEC gets into the playoff. The SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12 and top Group of Five Champion will take five of the 12 spots. That leaves seven at-large bids.

The Big Ten at its peak probably gets three or four teams into the playoff. Outside of the top four of Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan and Penn State, there aren’t many other contenders.

The likelihood is the SEC and Big Ten take at least all but one at-large playoff spot that the ACC, Big 12 and Notre Dame will vie to win. Even so, there’s no guarantee any team outside the Big Ten or SEC will win a second bid.

The top eight or nine teams in the SEC would probably be good enough to reach an ACC or Big 12 championship. That alone could make it difficult for either conference to earn a second bid. Texas 28-point Big 12 title victory over Oklahoma State last season doesn’t help its former conference’s perception.

Count College Football News among the outlets predicting five SEC playoff teams. Texas will look to be one of those teams in a consecutive playoff appearance.

JD PicKell ranks Texas QB Quinn Ewers in Top 10 quarterbacks for 2024

How high should Quinn Ewers be ranked among college quarterbacks?

Quarterback is arguably the toughest position in sports, if not the most important. The Longhorns have a good quarterback. One analyst thinks he can be elite.

On3 Sports’ JD PicKell ranked the Top 10 quarterbacks in college football for the upcoming season. Texas signal caller Quinn Ewers ranked No. 2 on his list.

Ewers has more to prove before we can assume he’ll finish the season with the same high regard attached to his name. We have noted that some view him as the unpredictable variable in regard to whether or not Texas can duplicate its 2024 success. The talent is still there.

What has seemed predictable is Ewers’ strong play in the biggest games. In his second career start and facing the Alabama Crimson Tide, the poised signal caller moved the ball down the field with ease. He wasn’t rattled the following season in a 349-yard performance against the Crimson Tide defense in Tuscaloosa. Alabama finished No. 18 in total defense allowing 316 total yards per game.

There is no moment too big for Ewers. It’s still the smaller moments that might require more attention to detail.

The other quarterbacks to make the list were Carson Beck (Georgia), Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss), Dillon Gabriel (Oregon), Jalen Milroe (Alabama), Shedeur Sanders (Colorado), Cam Ward (Miami), Nico Iamaleava (Tennessee), Will Howard (Ohio State) and Garrett Nussmeier (LSU).

Finding ways Texas can limit Michigan’s effectiveness in Week 2

Can the Texas defense take over the Michigan game?

The Texas Longhorns again face a blue blood in a premier nonconference matchup in Week 2. This season’s matchup features a road battle against the Michigan Wolverines.

Michigan won a national title last season. It did so under the radar despite consistently making close battles seem out of reach.

The Wolverines are comfortable in close matchups. Perhaps the confidence comes from their ability to play suffocating defense just long enough to break an explosive run on offense. Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore discussed how the team gets those explosive runs.

One of Moore’s first stated goals is to get a light box. The Wolverines lose all five offensive lineman but presumably the unit would fare well in run blocking with an advantage in the box this season.

The first way to make life difficult on the Wolverines is not to give Michigan a light box. Texas defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski might be more likely than usual to add a defender to the box in this game. Whether he does or not could indicate how much his philosophy has evolved since Arkansas gutted Texas in the run game in 2021.

Projected Michigan starting quarterback Alex Orji has not yet earned benefit of the doubt in allocating extra defenders to cover more ground in the secondary. Certainly, one career college passing attempt isn’t going to do that. Kwiatkowski’s ability to take away the run could be the key to stopping the Michigan offense. The question is how the defensive play caller will attempt to do that.

By extension, Kwiatkowski can help the defense make life difficult by taking away throws within 10 yards. Such throws will likely be Michigan’s bread and butter as it tries to get its quarterback in rhythm. Texas doesn’t have to let Orji get in rhythm. It will need to trust its edge rush to get to the quarterback before receivers can get open downfield against tight coverage. The Longhorns have the edge rush to get there.

How much stock does Kwiatkowski put in a receiver room that loses half of its touchdown receptions in just one departing receiver in Roman Wilson? Michigan’s potential projected starting receiver group of Fred Moore, Tyler Morris and Semaj Morgan combined for 39 catches, 433 yards and three touchdowns in 2024. Texas wide receiver Isaiah Bond alone went for 48 receptions and 668 yards a season ago.

Still there is the possibility that Kwiatkowski goes with his 2023 approach in which defensive backs play off the ball even in short yardage plays and the Longhorns deploy two deep safeties. I think the approach could change for Michigan.

The weapon to watch for Michigan is tight end Colston Loveland who caught 45 passes for 649 yards last season. Texas should be able to limit Loveland with players like nickel corner Jahdae Barron and former Clemson safety Andrew Mukuba. If it can, the pressure ramps up on an inexperienced Alex Orji.

In summary, the path for the Texas defense to stop the Michigan offense is straightforward: Pack the box. Keep Orji from getting in rhythm by taking away easy throws and bringing pressure. Make an inexperienced quarterback defeat you from the pocket with difficult throws.

For more Michigan news, previews and analysis visit Wolverines Wire.

SEC Network’s Peter Burns has Georgia, Texas as top SEC teams

SEC analyst says Texas looks now like Georgia did in 2021.

Texas might still have a target on its back after leaving the Big 12 for the Southeastern Conference. One SEC football analyst believes the Longhorns begin the season atop the conference with Georgia.

SEC Network’s Peter Burns heaped plenty of praise on head coach Steve Sarkisian’s team on Mike Griffith’s “On The Beat” podcast. According to Burns, Texas looks like Georgia did prior to its 2021 national title.

“To me, the top two teams to beat right now are going to be Georgia and they’re going to be Texas. I was just down in Austin, and I handled their spring football game. And it looks every bit like the way Georgia looked in 2021, in 2022, in 2023. I mean, they get off the bus, they’re monstrous people, they’re deep in every position and now they have a quarterback in Quinn Ewers coming back.”

Many of the “monstrous people” on the Texas roster are offensive linemen. Texas has five with extended starting experience in center Jake Majors, left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. and guards Hayden Conner, Devon Campbell Jr. and Cole Hutson. That’s just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to linemen who could make an impact for Texas if called upon in 2024.

Burns goes on to explain who places in the top two tiers of the conference.

To me, I think the pecking order is Georgia, Texas and then you have that kinda secondary tier that’s going to be full of Alabama, Ole Miss and perhaps even Missouri at that point.

There is disagreement as to who belongs in the second tier. Some would place LSU, Tennessee, Texas A&M or Oklahoma in the tier. Even so, it’s clear that many view Texas as a top challenger in the conference to make an SEC title or College Football Playoff berth.