Tag: college football playoff predictions

Five bold predictions for Sugar Bowl between Texas and Washington

We make surprising predictions for the game.

The College Football Playoff is just around the corner. The No. 3 Texas Longhorns (12-1) take on the No. 2 Washington Huskies (13-0) in the late game of the four-team playoff.

There are plenty of narratives surrounding the game. Among them is that Texas might not have the secondary to hang with Washington. That may be true, but isn’t our feeling on the game.

Many point to the Longhorns’ No. 93 pass defense in college football. The team surrenders 240.8 yards per game through the air. The Washington Huskies’ pass defense is worse. The Huskies rank an abysmal No. 120 out of 130 FBS defenses allowing 263.2 passing yards per game.

The Washington offense, however, will be the toughest test Texas has faced this season. The Huskies tower over college football with the No. 1 passing offense in the country at 343.8 yards per contest. Texas ranks No. 18 in pass offense with 286.8 yards per game.

The game could come down to which squad can slow the opponent’s passing game or get more from their own. Let’s predict that and more in our five bold predictions for the game.

Sugar Bowl Preview: Is Washington due to lose its next one score game?

Playing another one score game might not be in Washington’s favor.

The Washington Huskies could be due for regression in a one score matchup. Washington like Texas has played with fire several times this season. Unlike the Longhorns this season, the Huskies have never been burned.

Washington is 13-0, but nearly half of their games have been decided by one score. The Huskies are 6-0 in games decided by eight points or less including four games decided by three points or less.

In contrast, Texas has gone 3-1 in its four one score games. Two of those games were decided by three points.

You can look at the above stats in a couple ways. In one sense, Washington is clearly better in one score battles. On the other hand, the team could be due for regression because of their high volume of one score wins.

The Huskies have won each of their last three games by three points or less. Over that stretch, they defeated Oregon State (22-20), Washington State (24-21) and Oregon (34-31) in succession. We won’t suggest that they limped into the playoff, but the team certainly proved vulnerable.

Monday’s game could unfold in any number of ways. Certainly, the quarterback advantage leans heavily to Washington’s veteran quarterback Michael Penix. Nevertheless, Texas could be the game in which the team’s one score win streak ends.

Game prep for Washington intensifies with under a week until playoff

Intensity ramps up to 10/10 this week for the Texas football team.

It’s time. Distractions behind, and with holidays, recruiting and the transfer portal in the rear view, Texas’ game with the Washington Huskies is now within sight.

It’s game week for the Longhorns although the team will have a rare Monday night showdown on its hands. The team will take on Washington at 7:45 p.m. CT on Jan. 1 with a trip to the national championship on the line.

No matter how focused Texas’ preparation for the game has been to this point, it’s human nature to raise the level of mental energy during game week. Ideally, the Longhorns should already know to some degree what vulnerabilities they want to attack. This week, they will practice executing that plan of attack when they take the field.

Undoubtedly, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian will have a few tendency breakers up his sleeve. It’s conceivable that defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski will similarly work in concert with Sarkisian to build an early advantage.

It’s time for the Longhorns to put the finishing touches on a winning game plan. All that’s left for fans to do is wait, but that wait won’t be long.

Texas will take the field in just under a week on New Year’s Day.

Texas can’t afford to concede easy throws against Washington

Texas can’t give Washington anything easy like they did mid-season against Oklahoma.

The Texas secondary is given a bad rap in regard to how it has performed this year. Some suggest that the unit is poor because of its struggles in coverage. Perhaps that’s not the full story.

The Longhorns might actually have a good secondary that hasn’t always been put in a position to succeed. In several games, Texas has conceded several yards worth of open grass to opposing receivers. At times, its cornerbacks line up 10 yards off the line of scrimmage. That’s not a position of strength for this group.

Against Oklahoma, Texas corners lined up far off the ball setting up opposing outside receivers to reset the line of scrimmage a good five yards downfield. As a result, a bubble screen to Sooners receiver Drake Stoops was sure to cut Oklahoma’s yards to gain in half if not all but securing a first down.

Soft presnap alignment didn’t exactly help against the deep ball either. In a narrow victory against Kansas State where Texas squandered a sizable lead, soft coverage ushered Wildcats receiver Phillip Brooks into the end zone on a post route. Brooks was not impeded by his opposing cornerback’s 10 yard head start.

Where Texas lines up its cornerbacks could mean everything to how the secondary performs in the Sugar Bowl. The Longhorns aren’t stopping slants playing 10 yards off. They’re not stopping post routes and certainly not stopping receiver screens in that alignment.

Forget about the Washington rushing attack. Texas can take away what the Huskies do best by allotting more defenders into short to intermediate coverage, letting its defensive front get after the quarterback and not giving receivers time to get open downfield. The Longhorns proved they could do that against Texas Tech. They can do it again.

Texas’ defense needs to raise its standards this week. It needs to concede nothing. If they take that approach, the Longhorns not only could win but separate from Washington in the playoff semifinal.

Sugar Bowl could be Texas DC Pete Kwiatkowski’s game to win

Texas vs. Washington is a Kwiatkowski game.

The Longhorns season falls into the hands of Texas defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski. In many ways, the team’s chances of winning depend on its defensive play caller. In this case, that’s probably a good thing.

Kwiatkowski’s philosophy is built to stop an offense like Washington. That fact proved true last bowl season when his defense held the high-scoring Huskies to 27 points. In addition, his unit limited Washington quarterback Michael Penix to 5.3 yards per attempt with his leading receiver amassing 58 receiving yards.

The Washington offense was more explosive last year than it is this season. Penix threw for over 400 more yards in 2022 without a Pac-12 title appearance. In last year’s Alamo Bowl, Kwiatkowski shut them down. Texas’ offense didn’t produce.

We don’t expect the Texas offense to no show this season. As we noted before, the Washington defense is remarkably poor. In particular, the team is far more vulnerable than Texas is against the pass. Simply capitalizing on opportunities can keep the Longhorns offense moving the football.

The challenge will come on defense. Stop the pass, and Texas probably wins the game.

The Longhorns’ title chances will be entrusted to Kwiatkowski on New Year’s Day. In this matchup, that favors Texas. The Texas defense will look to be the reason the team advances to the next round.

Texas could turn the heat up on Washington QB Michael Penix

Texas could finally play the defensive style we’d like to see.

The Washington Huskies and Texas Longhorns are set to battle for a spot in the national championship. For Texas, the most sure path there is straightforward: stop the Washington passing attack.

Accomplishing that feat is easier said than done. Doing so might involve allowing more space in the running game than Texas is accustomed to yielding to its opponents.

The Washington passing attack stands as the best in the country. The Huskies average 343.8 passing yards per game. The team ranks No. 8 nationally in yards per attempt.

In some ways, the conference that the Huskies play in might have something to do with Washington’s high level of passing production. The No. 2 and 3 passing attacks in yards per game nationally are Oregon (342.8) and Washington State (336.8).

Half of the Pac-12 lands within the worst 16 pass defenses in the country without a single unit in the nation’s Top 50 against the pass. Even so, the Huskies proved their legitimacy in their season sweep of No. 8 Oregon earning a place in the College Football Playoff.

So how does Texas slow the Washington passing attack? Tight coverage, quarterback pressure and opportunistic defense.

The Longhorns gave somewhat of a preview of how this game could go in last season’s game. Texas surrendered 158 rushing yards yet held Washington to 27 points on the game.

Washington’s receiving corps won some battles last season. They will likely do the same this year. Nevertheless, it wasn’t as if the group was running away from Texas defenders at will.

In last season’s game, Washington’s top three receivers were Jalen McMillan with 58 yards, Rome Odunze with 57 yards and Ja’Lynn Polk with 45 yards. Michael Penix averaged 5.3 yards per attempt.

Texas can neutralize the Huskies’ passing attack with tight coverage that allows a four-man rush to get home. This time, the Longhorns should get help from an improved offense led by a more consistent version of starting quarterback Quinn Ewers. Add in a more complete receiver room with Adonai Mitchell supplementing Xavier Worthy, Ja’Tavion Sanders and Jordan Whittington and Texas has the players to win.

College Football Playoff: What team wins each potential title matchup?

We break down each potential title matchup.

Matchups determine games. This season’s College Football Playoff will be no different than others in that respect.

It’s possible to have a favorable matchup in one round and be severely outmatched in the next. Last year’s national runner-up TCU is the perfect example. After defeating Michigan in the playoff semifinal the Horned Frogs gave us the most lopsided national title in recent memory. TCU lost to Georgia, 65-7.

We don’t expect any blowouts to that degree in this season’s tournament, but matchups will still determine the games.

In terms of playing styles, the semifinals should produce the best of the scheme and slugfest approach. Michigan and Alabama like to bully their opponents. Washington and Texas like to make their opponents look lost with schematic advantage.

Let’s look at who might win potential national championship matchups.

Longhorns Wire’s College Football Playoff, New Years Six predictions

Longhorns Wire predicts the New Year’s Six slate of games.

The New Year’s Six slate is just over two weeks away. The set of games begins with the Ohio State Buckeyes and Missouri Tigers in the Cotton Bowl on Dec. 29.

Several interesting matchups comprise the list of games. One of those matchups involve one of the biggest David and Goliath comparable clashes in the history of the New Year’s Six. Undefeated, and perhaps untested Liberty, takes on an Oregon team that has coasted past lesser competition.

The College Football Playoff, however, takes center stage on New Year’s Day. In the first game, smash mouth teams in Michigan and Alabama are primed for a physical matchup.

Texas and Washington follow in what could be a scheme-off between Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian and Huskies head coach Kalin DeBour. The talent that pervades both rosters will make the coaching of that much greater importance.

Here’s how Longhorns Wire sees the games taking place.

One advantage could swing Sugar Bowl in Texas’ favor

This advantage for Texas could create a sizable advantage over Washington.

For several reasons, there’s no telling how the Washington matchup will go for Texas. That said, one tried and true component of football could swing the game in the Longhorns favor.

The Washington Huskies are a great football team. They are 13-0, conference champions and have an argument that their quarterback Michael Penix should have won the Heisman. But Penix has one fatal flaw: he doesn’t protect the football.

Penix has thrown nine interceptions on the season, but if you watched much of Washington’s games you’re aware he’s thrown more passes than that up for grabs. In just the last two games, you probably saw the Washington quarterback luck out of critical mistakes that fell harmlessly to the ground.

Contrast the Huskies’ signal caller and his lackadaisical protection of the football with Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers. The Longhorns quarterback is the opposite of Penix in that regard. Ewers rarely turns the ball over or even puts the ball in harm’s way. The Texas quarterback has six interceptions on the season.

Some would describe Ewers as the college version of what San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is in the pros. Head coach Steve Sarkisian schemes up easy passes and Ewers simply completes what is already wide open. That sort of playing style is an advantage for Texas who will likely be able to find ways to attack Washington over the next couple of weeks.

The turnover battle can swing a game. If both quarterbacks continue to play like they have so far this season, Texas could increase its margin for error and win off protecting the football.

Big Ten bowl projections and College Football Playoff predictions after Week 13

We have the best look at where #B1G teams might go bowling and which ones will make the College Football Playoff than we’ve had to date this season.

The Big Ten has a rich history in bowl games, and the expectations are it will continue in 2023 — we think.

Here at Buckeyes Wire, we keep the tradition going and look at where we think all of the teams in the conference will end up when the dust settles on the season. We reevaluate after each week’s games and predict where teams will be traveling for the holidays based on what our eyeballs tell us.

At the end of the regular season, nine conference teams are bowl eligible: Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Iowa, Rutgers, Maryland, Northwestern, Wisconsin and Minnesota. The latter thanks to it being the best of the five-win teams based on APR score and not enough Football Bowl Subdivision teams getting to six wins.

The big three in the East division are likely headed to a very lucrative bowl, while Michigan and Iowa will battle it out in Indy for the Big Ten championship in what is probably going to be a public flogging on national television.

We try to figure out where all the teams in the conference will go bowling, and which four teams will make the College Football Playoff with just the conference championship games to go.

Keep in mind the scenarios are very complicated with bowl tie-ins and contractual preferences for teams that have not been involved in certain locations, so we do our best to track it all. We also throw in the College Football Playoff picks as a cherry on top of it all.

Below is a look at the bowl predictions for Big Ten teams and complete playoff picks after Week 13, the end of the 2023 regular season.