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The Clemson Tigers (9-3) and SMU Mustangs (11-1) are lined up for an ACC Championship battle Saturday night. The opening kickoff from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte will be at 8 p.m. ET (ABC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Clemson vs. SMU odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Clemson, which is No. 17 in the US LBM Coaches Poll, went 7-1 in ACC play. The Tigers lost to Louisville in a Nov. 2 league game and then went on a 3-game win streak. That run was ended Saturday in a non-conference loss to South Carolina. Favored-by-2½ Clemson was undone by a Gamecocks TD with 1:08 to play in a 17-14 loss.
No. 7 SMU — owner of an 8-0 mark in conference play — closed out its regular season by covering a 12½-point spread in a 38-6 triumph over Cal Saturday. Southern Methodist has scored 33-plus points in each of its last 4 games. The Mustangs’ 39.2 points per game rank 5th in FBS.
Clemson and SMU did not meet in the regular season. Saturday’s circuit title clash will mark the first meeting between the 2 programs.
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Clemson vs. SMU odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Friday at 8:45 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Clemson +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | SMU -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Clemson +2.5 (-110) | SMU -2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 55.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Clemson vs. SMU picks and predictions
Prediction
SMU 31, Clemson 27
Moneyline
The Mustangs have won 9 in a row. They may not be as battle-tested as the Tigers down the stretch, but their late-season margins against the likes of Pitt (Nov. 2: 48-25), Boston College (Nov. 16: 38-28) and Cal (Nov. 30: 38-6) show how dangerous this team can be. Only Pitt is a comp for Clemson, and the Tigers snuck by the Panthers 24-20 while being a yardage minus and a turnover plus.
In the bloated ACC, only talented Louisville makes for a better comparison game between CU and SMU. Clemson lost to the Cardinals by 12 while the Mustangs downed them by 12.
The offensive production for CU and SMU has been similar. But peg the Mustangs defense as being a separator on Saturday. Southern Methodist is exceptional against the run, both in keeping foes off schedule and in preventing explosive plays.
Pegging Southern Methodist as a 60% win probability, MUSTANGS -135 is a leverage play here.
Against the spread
No interest here. PASS.
Over/Under
The last 9 SMU games have seen 6 wins (6-3) for the Over.
Both offenses play with some pace, and both have seen recent upticks in red-zone success. The 2 defenses are proficient in creating havoc plays; that figures to up the chance for a couple short-field-quick-strikes.
Add in some chilly-but-otherwise-benign weather, and even after some early-week move already headed this direction, the OVER 55.5 (-110) has betting value.
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