Tag: Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox odds predictions pick betting line spread

Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Cleveland Guardians (12-6) and Boston Red Sox (10-9) wrap up a 4-game series Thursday. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Guardians lead 2-1

Cleveland won the first 2 games of this series Monday (6-0) and Tuesday (10-7 in 11 innings), but Boston posted a 2-0 victory Wednesday as the Under (8) was never in question.

The Guardians had scored at least 2 runs in each of their first 17 games before Wednesday’s shutout loss. Cleveland had 16 runs in the first 2 outings of this series, and 24 total runs in the 3 games prior to Wednesday night. The Over has a slight 5-3 edge in the past 8 contests for the Guardians.

Boston allowed a season-high 10 runs in Tuesday’s loss, but it recorded a 3rd shutout win in just 19 games. The Under has connected in 5 of the past 6 games for the Red Sox.

Guardians at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Carlos Carrasco vs. LHP Brennan Bernardino

Carrasco (0-1, 3.55 ERA) makes his 4th start of the season. He has a 1.66 WHIP, 6.4 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 12 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 5 BB, 2 K in 3-2 home loss to New York Yankees Saturday
  • 2024 road splits: 0-0, 4.50 ERA (8 IP, 4 ER), 7 H, 4 BB, 9 K, .241 opponent batting average (OBA) in 2 starts

Bernardino (0-1, 1.69 ERA) makes his 1st start and 5th appearance of the season. He has a 0.75 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 13.5 K/9 in 5 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 1 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 2 K as an opener in a 13-1 home loss vs. Toronto Blue Jays on Aug. 6, 2023
  • Career vs. Guardians: 1-1, 1.59 ERA (5 2/3 IP, 1 ER), 3 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 6 relief appearances

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Guardians at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:40 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Guardians +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Red Sox -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-185) | Red Sox -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Guardians at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 5, Red Sox 4

Moneyline

The GUARDIANS (+105) are worth a look at plus-money as Cleveland looks to get back on track after Wednesday’s shutout loss.

Cleveland has posted an impressive 9-3 road record. The Guardians have lost consecutive road games just once (March 31-April 1) so far this season. They had won 6 road games in a row until Wednesday’s loss.

The Red Sox (-125) have managed just 3 victories in 9 tries at Fenway Park, and that isn’t likely to change with the opener Bernardino on the hill — before he turns it over the bullpen.

Run line/Against the spread

The Red Sox +1.5 (-185) aren’t worth playing. The -185 juice is too much the little insurance of a run and a half.

PASS.

Over/Under

UNDER 9.5 (-115) is a good play in this matinee series finale.

The Under is on a 5-1 run for the Red Sox, including 2-1 in the first 3 games of this series.

For the Guardians, the Over-Under has split 3-3 in the past 6 games. The Under has cashed in 4 of the past 5 games on the road, too.

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Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Cleveland Guardians (12-5) and Boston Red Sox (9-9) play the 3rd contest of a 4-game series Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Guardians lead 2-0 after posting wild 10-7 victory in 11 innings Tuesday as slight underdogs (+106) with Over (8.5) easily cashing

The Guardians have unexpectedly fired out to a 12-5 start, which gives them the best record in baseball at the moment. Their success has been aided by an ability to win on the road as Cleveland is 9-2 away from home, while posting a plus-38 run differential, 2nd-best in the majors behind the equally surprising Kansas City Royals (+39).

The Red Sox have been tripped up in 6 of the past 8 games as the pitching has conceded at least 6 runs in each of the 6 losses. The Under is 4-1 in the past 5, though, as the offense has cobbled together just 3.8 runs per game (RPG), including a pair of shutout losses.

Guardians at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Ben Lively vs. RHP Tanner Houck

Lively (4-7, 5.38 ERA in 2023 with Cincinnati) makes his 1st start of 2024. He had a 1.36 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 88 2/3 innings last season.

  • Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 13 ER, 13 H (4 HR), 2 BB, 2 K in 20-9 road loss at Chicago Cubs Aug. 1, 2023 for Cincinnati
  • 2023 road splits: 2-5, 5.90 ERA, 50.1 IP, 33 ER, 62 H, 9 BB, 40 K in 6 starts and 5 relief appearances

Houck (2-1, 2.04 ERA) makes his 4th start of the season. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 1.0 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 17 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 7 R (4 ER), 12 H (1 HR), 0 BB, 2 K in 7-0 home setback to Los Angeles Angels Friday
  • Career vs. Guardians: 0-1, 3.52 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 10 H, 4 BB, 14 K in 2 starts and 5 relief appearances

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Guardians at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:11 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Guardians +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Red Sox -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-175) | Red Sox -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Guardians at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 7, Guardians 4

Moneyline

The RED SOX (-130) are a good play as moderate favorites against the surprising Guardians (+110).

After the season-ending injury to RHP Shane Bieber, and a doubleheader with the New York Yankees, the Guardians had to get creative with the starting rotation. Lively gets the nod here in his 1st start — coming off the 10-day injury list due to an illness — to make his Cleveland debut. It might be a bit rocky.

Run line/Against the spread

The RED SOX -1.5 (+140) are worth a look on the run line, as they try to turn things around and avoid slipping under .500. The Guardians have won the first 2 in the set, but they turn to the unproven Lively who was pounded last season, pitching for the Reds. He is likely to show some rust since it’s his 1st start of 2024, and the expectation is that Boston’s offense jumps on him early.

Divvy up 1½ UNITS between the 2 wagers — Boston ML and Boston RL — as you see fit.

Over/Under

OVER 8.5 (-115) is the play here with Lively being the driving factor.

He hasn’t pitched in a meaningful game since last summer — while with another organization. Expect nerves to be rampant as he debuts for his new team in a tough pitcher’s park.

In addition, while Houck pitched well in his first 3 starts, he is coming off a rough outing against the Halos, so the Guardians should be able to get to him.

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Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Cleveland Guardians (11-5) and Boston Red Sox (9-8) square off for the 2nd time in a 4-game series on Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Guardians lead 1-0 after a 6-0 Patriot’s Day win in Boston, cashing as an underdog (+140) while the Under (9.5) hit

The Guardians have won 2 straight as an underdog after going 1-3 in the previous 4 outings. As an underdog, Cleveland is 8-1 on the run line, winning 6 of those games outright. The Over has cashed at a 4-2 pace in the past 6 contests.

The Red Sox have been shut out in 2 of the past 4 games, bookending a pair of victories against the Los Angeles Angels over the weekend. The Under has cashed in 4 in a row, too.

Cleveland has won 3 straight in the series, while the Under and Over has alternated in each of the past 7 meetings since April 28, 2023.

Guardians at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Tanner Bibee vs. RHP Garrett Whitlock

Bibee (1-0, 5.93 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.83 WHIP, 5.3 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 13 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 7-6 win in 10 innings last Wednesday vs. Chicago White Sox
  • Last road start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H (1 HR), 0 BB, 9 K in 4-2 win vs. Minnesota Twins April 4

Whitlock (1-0, 1.26 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 14 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H (1 HR), 2 BB, 4 K in 9-4 loss in 10 innings Thursday vs. Baltimore Orioles
  • Career vs. Guardians: 1-0, 2.84 ERA, 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 7 K, 2 SV in 4 relief appearances

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Guardians at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:26 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Guardians -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Red Sox -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+155) | Red Sox +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: $100 | U: -120)

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Guardians at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 5, Guardians 3

Moneyline

The RED SOX (-115) are a decent play Tuesday night at Fenway Park, as Boston looks for the bounce back.

The Guardians (-105) were sharp in a 6-0 win in matinee action on Monday, but look for the Boston bats to come alive against Bibee.

Run line/Against the spread

The Red Sox +1.5 (-190) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return, and that’s too expensive if you require a little bit of insurance and you can’t back Boston straight up.

PASS, and just play the moneyline.

Over/Under

UNDER 9 (-120) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most.

The Under has a 5-3 edge in the past 8 meetings since July 28, 2022. The Under also has a 5-4 edge in the past 9 games for the Guardians, while cashing in each of the past 3 outings on the road.

For the Red Sox, the Under has cashed in 4 straight games, averaging 3.0 runs per game (RPG), while allowing 4.8 RPG.

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Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cleveland Guardians (49-47) and Boston Red Sox (49-49) play the 3rd game of a 4-game series at Fenway Park Wednesday. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Guardians vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Boston leads 4-1.

Cleveland is 6-3 with an .840 OPS over its last 9 games. The Guardians appear to have righted the ship after going 4-10 from July 2-13.

The Red Sox have been struggling. They are just 7-18 since June 27. Boston pitching coughed up a pair of home runs in an 8-3 loss to Cleveland Tuesday. The Crimson Hose are 1-6 with a 10.77 ERA (and 13 HR allowed) over their last 7 games.

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Guardians at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Cal Quantrill vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi

Quantrill (7-5, 3.75 ERA) is tabbed for his 19th start. He has registered a 1.30 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 through 105 2/3 IP.

  • Owns a 4.53 ERA on the road and a 3.19 mark at home.
  • Faced the Red Sox June 24 and allowed 2 runs on 5 hits across 5 IP.

Eovaldi (4-3, 4.30 ERA) has registered a 1.24 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 75 1/3 IP across 14 starts.

  • Totes back-to-back clunkers into this turn against Cleveland. Was the lead edge of the Red Sox coughing up 28 runs to the Toronto Blue Jays Friday as he allowed 9 ER in 2 2/3 IP; allowed 3 ER in 4 1/3 IP against the New York Yankees July 15 in his return from the IL.
  • Has been tagged for 9 runs twice in his last 7 starts.
  • Allowed 9 R (6 ER) to the Houston Astros May 17 and rebounded to clock a 1.35 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over his next 4 starts.

Guardians at Red Sox odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:24 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Guardians +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Red Sox -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-180) | Red Sox -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Guardians at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 4, Guardians 3

Money line

Both starter’s ERAs could well be flipped if you look at the underlying analytics.

In going 1-6 over 7 games bracketing the All-Star break, the Sox batted just .105 (4-of-38) with runners in scoring position. Boston has its warts, but this price has room for value.

BACK THE RED SOX (-135).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS on getting the Sox by with a multi-run cushion with the game having a likable Under.

Over/Under

The analytics peg both offenses as being too far over their skis. Both bullpens are in good enough shape on the back end.

TAKE THE UNDER 8.5 (-105).

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Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cleveland Guardians (48-47) and Boston Red Sox (49-48) continue a 4-game series at Fenway Park. Tuesday’s first pitch is set for a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Guardians vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Boston leads 4-0 and has outscored Cleveland 21-9.

Cleveland had a nifty 2.63 ERA in 9 games from July 11-23, but the Guardians have logged a 5.25 ERA in losing 3 straight games since. Over the last 2 years, Cleveland is just 2-8 against the BoSox.

The Red Sox had been struggling before Monday’s 3-1 win. Boston had lost 5 straight and was just 6-17 since June 27.

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Guardians at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Bryan Shaw vs. RHP Josh Winckowski

Shaw (4-2, 5.29 ERA) is tabbed for his 1st career start. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 34 IP in 39 games.

  • The 12-year veteran has logged 732 career games, all out of the bullpen.
  • Last pitched on Saturday, throwing 32 pitches.
  • Will likely serve in an opener role. Figures to be backed up by LHP Kirk McCarty, a former Cleveland farmhand recently waived by the Baltimore Orioles.

Winckowski (3-4, 4.38 ERA) owns a 1.43 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 through 37 IP in 7 starts.

  • Added to the COVID-19 list July 23 but is expected to make Tuesday’s start against Cleveland.
  • The rookie right-hander has struggled against lefty bats (.820 OPS allowed), and that makes for a potential problem against a Guardians team that owns an .854 OPS vs. righties (2nd in MLB).

Guardians at Red Sox odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:51 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Guardians +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | Red Sox -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-150) | Red Sox -1.5 (+122)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Guardians at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 5, Guardians 3

Money line

The Sox are a lean, but consider the Run Line to have better leverage. PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread

Boston has had Cleveland’s number the last 2 seasons. The Guardians have had a couple of road-trip slumps this year, and their pitching Tuesday figures to be suspect.

The Red Sox have been just fine when not facing foes from the AL East.

BACK BOSTON -1.5 (+125).

Over/Under

The analytics peg both offenses as being too far over their skis. The Under figures to be a near-automatic lean for this whole series. The Under hit Monday, and the UNDER 10.5 (-122) is a workable play in Game 2.

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Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cleveland Guardians (48-46) and Boston Red Sox (48-48) swing into a 4-game series at Fenway Park. Monday’s opener is set for a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Guardians vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Boston leads 3-0. Red Sox pitching held Cleveland to 8 runs over a 3-game series last month.

The Guardians are coming off a 4-game split at the Chicago White Sox. Cleveland had a nifty 2.63 ERA in 9 games from July 11-23, but allowed a combined 11 runs in losing Saturday and Sunday to the White Sox.

The Red Sox have been struggling. They are just 6-17 since June 27. Boston has lost 5 games in a row and all have been by at least 3 runs.

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Guardians at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Zach Plesac vs. RHP Nick Pivetta

Plesac (2-7, 4.02 ERA) has a 1.27 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 through 94 IP in 17 starts.

  • First start since July 15. In his career he has a fine 3.57 ERA when pitching on 6-plus days’ rest.
  • Has been a troubled road hurler in his career. Owns a 4.51 ERA away from home (4.93 ERA in 2022).

Pivetta (8-7, 4.50 ERA) is making his 20th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 108 IP.

  • Carried a 3.23 ERA into July, but has allowed 20 R in 13 1/3 IP across 3 prebreak July starts.
  • Went 7 IP, allowing 2 R on 9 H in a June 24 start at Cleveland.

Guardians at Red Sox odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 8:23 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Guardians -108 (bet $100 to win $108) | Red Sox -112 (bet $112 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL): Guardians -1.5 (+145) | Red Sox +1.5 (-180)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Guardians at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 5, Guardians 4

Money line

Pivetta was a decent fade candidate late in the first half. The break came at a good reset time for him.

Plesac figures to be somewhat overrated based on recent outings. Mix in Boston’s tougher slate of late, and peg the home team as a value in this one.

BACK THE RED SOX (-112).

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Run line/Against the spread

The juice here makes for too steep a price on the Red Sox lean. PASS.

Over/Under

The analytics peg both offenses as being too far over their skis. There is some leverage in an UNDER 9.5 (-120) play here.

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Additional MLB coverage:
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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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