The Cleveland Guardians (48-46) and Boston Red Sox (48-48) swing into a 4-game series at Fenway Park. Monday’s opener is set for a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Guardians vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Boston leads 3-0. Red Sox pitching held Cleveland to 8 runs over a 3-game series last month.
The Guardians are coming off a 4-game split at the Chicago White Sox. Cleveland had a nifty 2.63 ERA in 9 games from July 11-23, but allowed a combined 11 runs in losing Saturday and Sunday to the White Sox.
The Red Sox have been struggling. They are just 6-17 since June 27. Boston has lost 5 games in a row and all have been by at least 3 runs.
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Guardians at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Zach Plesac vs. RHP Nick Pivetta
Plesac (2-7, 4.02 ERA) has a 1.27 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 through 94 IP in 17 starts.
- First start since July 15. In his career he has a fine 3.57 ERA when pitching on 6-plus days’ rest.
- Has been a troubled road hurler in his career. Owns a 4.51 ERA away from home (4.93 ERA in 2022).
Pivetta (8-7, 4.50 ERA) is making his 20th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 108 IP.
- Carried a 3.23 ERA into July, but has allowed 20 R in 13 1/3 IP across 3 prebreak July starts.
- Went 7 IP, allowing 2 R on 9 H in a June 24 start at Cleveland.
Guardians at Red Sox odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 8:23 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Guardians -108 (bet $100 to win $108) | Red Sox -112 (bet $112 to win $100)
- Run line (RL): Guardians -1.5 (+145) | Red Sox +1.5 (-180)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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Guardians at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 5, Guardians 4
Money line
Pivetta was a decent fade candidate late in the first half. The break came at a good reset time for him.
Plesac figures to be somewhat overrated based on recent outings. Mix in Boston’s tougher slate of late, and peg the home team as a value in this one.
BACK THE RED SOX (-112).
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Run line/Against the spread
The juice here makes for too steep a price on the Red Sox lean. PASS.
Over/Under
The analytics peg both offenses as being too far over their skis. There is some leverage in an UNDER 9.5 (-120) play here.
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