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The Cleveland Guardians (11-5) and Boston Red Sox (9-8) square off for the 2nd time in a 4-game series on Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Guardians lead 1-0 after a 6-0 Patriot’s Day win in Boston, cashing as an underdog (+140) while the Under (9.5) hit
The Guardians have won 2 straight as an underdog after going 1-3 in the previous 4 outings. As an underdog, Cleveland is 8-1 on the run line, winning 6 of those games outright. The Over has cashed at a 4-2 pace in the past 6 contests.
The Red Sox have been shut out in 2 of the past 4 games, bookending a pair of victories against the Los Angeles Angels over the weekend. The Under has cashed in 4 in a row, too.
Cleveland has won 3 straight in the series, while the Under and Over has alternated in each of the past 7 meetings since April 28, 2023.
Guardians at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Tanner Bibee vs. RHP Garrett Whitlock
Bibee (1-0, 5.93 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.83 WHIP, 5.3 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 13 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 7-6 win in 10 innings last Wednesday vs. Chicago White Sox
- Last road start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H (1 HR), 0 BB, 9 K in 4-2 win vs. Minnesota Twins April 4
Whitlock (1-0, 1.26 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 14 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H (1 HR), 2 BB, 4 K in 9-4 loss in 10 innings Thursday vs. Baltimore Orioles
- Career vs. Guardians: 1-0, 2.84 ERA, 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 7 K, 2 SV in 4 relief appearances
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Guardians at Red Sox odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:26 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Red Sox -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+155) | Red Sox +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: $100 | U: -120)
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Guardians at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 5, Guardians 3
Moneyline
The RED SOX (-115) are a decent play Tuesday night at Fenway Park, as Boston looks for the bounce back.
The Guardians (-105) were sharp in a 6-0 win in matinee action on Monday, but look for the Boston bats to come alive against Bibee.
Run line/Against the spread
The Red Sox +1.5 (-190) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return, and that’s too expensive if you require a little bit of insurance and you can’t back Boston straight up.
PASS, and just play the moneyline.
Over/Under
UNDER 9 (-120) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most.
The Under has a 5-3 edge in the past 8 meetings since July 28, 2022. The Under also has a 5-4 edge in the past 9 games for the Guardians, while cashing in each of the past 3 outings on the road.
For the Red Sox, the Under has cashed in 4 straight games, averaging 3.0 runs per game (RPG), while allowing 4.8 RPG.
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