Tag: Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates odds predictions pick betting line spread

Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (7-24) travel to Pittsburgh to square off against the Pittsburgh Pirates (13-17) Thursday in the opener of a 4-game NL Central series. First pitch at PNC Park is slated for  6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Reds lead 2-1 as teams meet for the second straight weekend. The Reds outscored the Pirates 21-13 in last weekend’s games in Cincinnati.

Cincinnati outslugged the Milwaukee Brewers 14-11 Wednesday for its  4th win in its last 6 games.

Pittsburgh remains at home after taking 2 of 3 from the Los Angeles Dodgers at PNC Park Monday-Wednesday.

Reds at Pirates projected starters

RHP Connor Overton vs. RHP JT Brubaker

Overton (0-0, 2.53 ERA) is tabbed for his 3rd start this season and 5th in his career. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 in 10 2/3 IP.

  • Pitched Saturday’s game against Pittsburgh and allowed 2 R in 5 1/3 IP (0 BB, 4K). Has allowed just 3 ER in his last 11 IP.
  • Owns a 3.81 ERA in 26 career innings across 11 games.

Brubaker (0-2, 5.68 ERA) has registered a 1.42 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 through 25 1/3 IP in 6 starts.

  • Faced Reds last Saturday, allowing 2R while fanning 9 in 5 IP.
  • Albeit in a small sample, has held current Reds to an aggregate .494 OPS.

Reds at Pirates odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:03 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Pirates -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL): Reds +1.5 (-190) | Pirates -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Reds at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Pirates 4, Reds 3

Money line

The Pirates have been beaten up by the way opponents have clustered their walks, hits, and home runs, and that “cluster luck” — good or bad — is not highly correlated game to game, week to week, etc. So, look for better things for the Pittsburgh run prevention, primarily from the bullpen.

Brubaker has been brow-beaten by allowing a .385 OBP in inning-leadoff situations and a .267 batting average with runners in scoring position. His batting average on balls in play in those key situations: .438 and .375. The right-hander logged a 3.79 ERA at home last season.

When Brubaker and Overton hooked up Saturday, their numbers were similar. But a deeper dive shows that Overton was hit hard while Brubaker was dinged by softer contact.

Consider a partial-unit play on PITTSBURGH (-135). A price of -130 or better would be more advisable for full-unit action.

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Run line/Against the spread

The PITTSBURGH -1.5 (+155) is attractive enough to include, perhaps on a partial-unit basis. The run-line play on a low-total favorite — especially in this offensive downturn season — is a tricky proposition.

Over/Under

Underlying signals point to a low total. An inward breeze is in the forecast, and BACKING THE UNDER 8.5 (-130) makes sense.

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Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (75-71) and Pittsburgh Pirates (54-91) meet Thursday to put a lid on a three-game set at PNC Park. First pitch is set for 12:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Reds vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Tyler Mahle is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He is 11-5 with a 3.73 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, and 3.2 BB/9 in 159 1/3 IP over 29 starts.

  • Allowed 3 ER with 17 K over 12 1/3 IP across two starts against the Pirates this season.
  • Has struggled in his batter-friendly home park but owns a 1.97 ERA and 0.99 WHIP on the road.

RHP Connor Overton is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates. The 28-year old is making his first big-league start after five outings as a reliever. He has not allowed an earned run while giving up 4 H and 2 BB with 5 K across 7 2/3 IP with the Toronto Blue Jays and Pittsburgh.

  • Has not gone more than 3 IP in an appearance, and his longest outing came more than three weeks ago. Thursday’s effort against the Reds figures to be in the opener role on a bullpen day.
  • Pitched 1 inning out of the bullpen Sunday after being claimed off waivers by the Pirates. His previous 6 2/3 innings were logged with the Blue Jays.

Reds at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:52 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds -180 (bet $180 to win $100) | Pirates +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (-108) | Pirates +1.5 (-112)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Prediction

Reds 6, Pirates 3

Money line (ML)

Cincinnati has dropped the first two games of this series and is 0-4 in its last four. Problems with the Cincy offense have led to the Reds going just 4-12 with a .668 OPS since Aug. 28.

The Pirates are 4-1 over their last five games and are 10-5 with a .753 OPS in their last 15 games at PNC Park.

However, that recent Pittsburgh surge at home has been fueled by an easy schedule and a slew of one-run victories. The Reds have been undone by the same margin of late.

With road-warrior Tyler Mahle on the mound and with Cincinnati still playing October-relevant games, peg the REDS (-180) as having a bit of value in the series finale.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Pirates own the league’s second-worst run differential at minus-1.43. The price on the visitors is attractive: BACK THE REDS -1.5 (-108).

Over/Under (O/U)

Mixed signals in the supporting analytics for both offenses and bullpens, and not enough data compiled on Overton. PASS.

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Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (16-16) play the Pittsburgh Pirates (14-20) Tuesday at PNC Park in Game 2 of their three-game set. First pitch is at 6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Pirates with MLB picks and predictions.

Cincinnati drilled Pittsburgh 14-1 Monday and has won all four meetings so far this season by a combined score of 44-9.

RHP Jeff Hoffman makes his seventh start for the Reds. He is 2-2 with a 4.39 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9.

  • Last outing: Loss in 2 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 4 K last Tuesday against the Chicago White Sox.
  • Career vs. Pirates: 0-2 with a 10.13 ERA (8 IP, 9 ER), 2.88 WHIP and 5.6 K/9 across 2 starts.
    • vs. Pirates on the current roster: 19 at-bats with a .474/.524/.737 slash line and 1 HR.

RHP JT Brubaker gets the start for the Pirates. He is 2-2 with a 2.78 ERA (32 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 across 6 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 5 IP with 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 7 K in Pittsburgh’s 4-2 loss at the San Diego Padres Wednesday.
  • Career vs. Reds: 0-1 with a 1.93 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 1.39 WHIP and 9.6 K/9 in 2 starts.
    • vs. Reds on the current roster: 34 at-bats with a .235/.333/.294 slash line.

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Reds at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Pirates -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-200) | Pirates -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Pirates 5, Reds 2

Money line (ML)

GIMME the PIRATES (-120) for 1 unit because bookmakers have the right team favored and the “sharp” money is with Pittsburgh while the public is rolling with a Cincinnati team expected to compete for the NL Central crown.

It’s considered a possibility this Pirates team could lose 100 games this season and doesn’t nearly have the talent or expectations of the Reds; however, the starting pitching matchup is lopsided with Hoffman being a fringe rotation guy and Brubaker looking like a legitimate top-end starter thus far.

Also, this is a “Pros vs. Joes” spot in the betting market. According to Pregame.com, more money has been wagered on Pittsburgh’s money line whereas more bets have been placed on Cincinnati.

Typically, the money column represents the “sharp” side and the bets placed column represents the “average Joe”. It’s generally wiser to follow the money rather than the crowd of people in sports betting.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the PIRATES -1.5 (+165) for a quarter unit because Pittsburgh’s run line payout is chunky enough to sprinkle on and Hoffman has terrible numbers against this Pirates team.

Also, since the beginning of last season, Pittsburgh has the second-best run line cover rate in divisional games.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8 (-115) for a quarter unit because the Pirates are 1-4 O/U this season in Brubaker starts and we have another “Pros vs. Joes” scenario in the market with the presumed “sharp” money on the Under and the “public money” on the Over.

My hesitancy with backing the Under is Cincinnati’s terrible bullpen combined with Hoffman’s splits against Pittsburgh and the Reds scored 11 or more runs in each of their last three games against the Pirates.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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